Curated Betting Card

Belmont Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 4.

2026-10-03 Race 4 Morning Card
You're viewing the Morning Card
This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Belmont Park · full board
Strongest play
R6
Harper's Corner #3
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Obliterated #5
12/1 ML
Deepest field
R3
13 runners
13
Pace shape
R6
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Belmont Park presents an 11-race program highlighted by major stakes competition on both dirt and turf. Clear divisional anchors emerge in Race 6 with Harper's Corner, Race 8 with Champagne contender U. S. S. Valor, and Race 11 with European import Dover Street, each holding significant rating advantages over their respective fields. Bettors will find the best value opportunities in the turf sprints and two-year-old maiden routes, where vulnerable morning-line favorites create actionable exacta and longshot angles against competitive mid-tier runners.
Races 11 Status Live View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:05 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Race 1 pits Saratoga runner-up #1 Mystrix against Chad Brown trainee #3 Tap Our Way in a two-turn route test where early positioning into the clubhouse turn will dictate terms.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 29.9%
Price horse: Tap Our Way (2/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Mystrix EP —
K Carmouche
D Gargan
 9/5
30
★★★★☆
61.2
 Top Pick
3 Tap Our Way —
F Prat
C C Brown
 2/1
30
★★★★☆
61.1
 Value Play
7 Mystik Bayou —
R Santana, Jr.
K G McPeek
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.7
  
5 Obliterated —
D Davis
J T Ryerson
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
50.5
 Longshot
4 Election Hero —
M Franco
C C Brown
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.6
  
2 Lithos —
E J Zayas
D Beckman
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
8 Squadron
J Lezcano
W I Mott
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
6 Le Patron —
A Fresu
W I Mott
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Mystrix
EP —
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
D Gargan
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Tap Our Way
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse
7
Mystik Bayou
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.7
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Obliterated
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
J T Ryerson
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
4
Election Hero
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C C Brown
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.6
Post · Horse
2
Lithos
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
D Beckman
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
8
Squadron
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
W I Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
6
Le Patron
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
W I Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old Which Have Sold Or Rna'd For $65,000 Or Less In T
Purse$80,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:38 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A wide-open field of 11 restricted juvenile fillies centers on whether first-time starter #10 Poll Position can overcome an outside draw against #2 Goodproblemtohave, who possesses the best previous speed figure in the lineup.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 26.3%
Price horse: Goodproblemtohave (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Poll Position EP —
P Lopez
M J Trombetta
 8/1
26
★★★☆☆
59.6
 Top Pick
2 Goodproblemtohave —
F Prat
A J Green
 8/1
16
★★★☆☆
55.5
 Value Play
8 Sky Luna —
A Fresu
D S Ryan
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
52.6
 Longshot
9 Queen of Promise —
R Gutierrez
J C Avila
 9/2
10
★★★☆☆
51.6
  
5 Buzzer Beater —
M Franco
I Kantarmaci
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.6
  
3 Cheyenne's Sass —
R Santana, Jr.
C Summers
 4/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
4 She's Fast Money —
J Lezcano
J C Englehart
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.3
  
7 Vekoma Dream —
K Carmouche
C Summers
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
11 Stellabration —
C Elliott
M J Trombetta
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.8
  
6 Scottish Brittany —
E J Zayas
J R Abreu
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
1 Dream of Me —
J A Gomez
P B McBurney
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Poll Position
EP —
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
M J Trombetta
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Goodproblemtohave
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
A J Green
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Sky Luna
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
D S Ryan
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
9
Queen of Promise
—
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
J C Avila
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.6
Post · Horse
5
Buzzer Beater
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.6
Post · Horse
3
Cheyenne's Sass
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
C Summers
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
4
She's Fast Money
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
J C Englehart
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.3
Post · Horse
7
Vekoma Dream
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
C Summers
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
11
Stellabration
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
M J Trombetta
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
Post · Horse
6
Scottish Brittany
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J R Abreu
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
1
Dream of Me
—
Jockey
J A Gomez
Trainer
P B McBurney
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time1:11 PM ET
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Thirteen state-bred maiden fillies clash on the turf sprint course, where #7 Forecheck looks to convert a runner-up effort at Saratoga against #6 Night Sky, who matches her closely on recent speed figures.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 18.7%
Price horse: Night Sky (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Forecheck —
M Franco
L Rice
 7/2
19
★★★☆☆
58.6
 Top Pick
6 Night Sky —
E J Zayas
J Delgado
 6/1
15
★★★☆☆
56.7
 Value Play
4 All Star Leigh —
D Davis
A W Dutrow
 9/2
12
★★★☆☆
54.6
  
10 Gnosis —
K Carmouche
R Handal
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Longshot
8 Comets Choice —
J Lezcano
J P Terranova II
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
52.5
  
3 Dream Spell
F Prat
M J Maker
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
51.8
  
1 Annotate —
R Santana, Jr.
S M Asmussen
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
5 Convincing —
P Lopez
D S Ryan
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.1
  
9 Plum Island —
C Elliott
J C Englehart
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.4
  
11 Slinging Slasher —
A Fresu
K Danner
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
12 Inflame
R Gutierrez
T A Hills
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
13 Brand Liam —
R Gutierrez
A Delgado
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
40.6
  
2 Margretfrances
J E Morelos
M Giddings
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
40.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Forecheck
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Night Sky
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J Delgado
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.7
Post · Horse
4
All Star Leigh
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
A W Dutrow
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.6
Post · Horse Longshot
10
Gnosis
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
R Handal
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
8
Comets Choice
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
J P Terranova II
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.5
Post · Horse
3
Dream Spell
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
M J Maker
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.8
Post · Horse
1
Annotate
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
S M Asmussen
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
5
Convincing
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
D S Ryan
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.1
Post · Horse
9
Plum Island
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
J C Englehart
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.4
Post · Horse
11
Slinging Slasher
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
K Danner
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
12
Inflame
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
T A Hills
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
Post · Horse
13
Brand Liam
—
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
A Delgado
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.6
Post · Horse
2
Margretfrances
Jockey
J E Morelos
Trainer
M Giddings
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:44 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A full field of 12 two-year-olds route on the turf, where morning-line favorite #6 Permanent Record must hold off Mark Casse trainee #12 Harbaugh, who has paired 80 speed figures in two consecutive turf starts.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 22.6%
Price horse: Harbaugh (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Permanent Record —
F Prat
C C Brown
 2/1
23
★★★☆☆
59.2
 Top Pick
12 Harbaugh EP —
D Davis
M E Casse
 6/1
18
★★★☆☆
57.4
 Value Play
9 Ticket to Fame —
R Santana, Jr.
T Morley
 9/2
13
★★★☆☆
54.4
  
8 This Time for Sure S —
M Franco
K Danner
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
4 Real Restraint —
A Fresu
B P Walsh
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
52.0
 Longshot
10 Warrior's Journey —
P Lopez
T A Pletcher
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
1 Chambered —
R Gutierrez
K G McPeek
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.4
  
7 Mr Webster —
J Lezcano
W I Mott
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
3 Exhibit —
K Carmouche
T A Pletcher
 12/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
5 Leftus —
C Elliott
T Morley
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.1
  
11 Road to Ravello —
E J Zayas
D G Donk
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
40.6
  
2 Chief Ball E —
K Davis
J A Kelley
 50/1
1
★★☆☆☆
32.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Permanent Record
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse Value Play
12
Harbaugh
EP —
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M E Casse
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse
9
Ticket to Fame
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
T Morley
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.4
Post · Horse
8
This Time for Sure
S —
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
K Danner
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Real Restraint
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
B P Walsh
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.0
Post · Horse
10
Warrior's Journey
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
T A Pletcher
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
Post · Horse
1
Chambered
—
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
K G McPeek
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.4
Post · Horse
7
Mr Webster
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
W I Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
3
Exhibit
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
T A Pletcher
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
Post · Horse
5
Leftus
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
T Morley
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.1
Post · Horse
11
Road to Ravello
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
D G Donk
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.6
Post · Horse
2
Chief Ball
E —
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
J A Kelley
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 32.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:17 PM ET
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Brad Cox trainee #4 D'muehl brings back-to-back Saratoga runner-up efforts into this state-bred maiden sprint, but must deal with #13 Fun Toph Fun, who ships in with ascending form.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 32.6%
Price horse: Fun Toph Fun (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 D'muehl P —
M Franco
B H Cox
 3/1
33
★★★★☆
61.7
 Top Pick
13 Fun Toph Fun —
R Gutierrez
J C Avila
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
53.6
 Value Play
8 Fantasy Fortune —
E J Zayas
J T Ryerson
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
51.0
 Longshot
12 Build Or Buy —
F Prat
C C Brown
 5/2
8
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
7 Road to Purfection —
K Davis
D Gargan
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.4
  
6 Early Returns —
P Lopez
M J Trombetta
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.3
  
1 White Star —
J E Morelos
F Abreu
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
9 Harlow Drive
D Davis
J C Englehart
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
46.0
  
11 Lady Azul —
D Haddock
D K Synnefias
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
3 Fireinhereyes —
R Santana, Jr.
H De Paz
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
2 Underwood —
C Elliott
T A Hills
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.4
  
5 Rock Me Doc —
K Carmouche
P W Barrow
 12/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.4
  
10 Cyber Cloud —
J Lezcano
M A Hennig
 20/1
2
★★☆☆☆
36.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
D'muehl
P —
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
B H Cox
33
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse Value Play
13
Fun Toph Fun
—
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
J C Avila
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.6
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Fantasy Fortune
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J T Ryerson
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.0
Post · Horse
12
Build Or Buy
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse
7
Road to Purfection
—
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
D Gargan
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.4
Post · Horse
6
Early Returns
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
M J Trombetta
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.3
Post · Horse
1
White Star
—
Jockey
J E Morelos
Trainer
F Abreu
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
9
Harlow Drive
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
J C Englehart
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
11
Lady Azul
—
Jockey
D Haddock
Trainer
D K Synnefias
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
3
Fireinhereyes
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
H De Paz
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
2
Underwood
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
T A Hills
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.4
Post · Horse
5
Rock Me Doc
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
P W Barrow
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.4
Post · Horse
10
Cyber Cloud
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
M A Hennig
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 36.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #7 Royal Companion, #6 Side Quest.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeStakes
Purse$200,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time2:50 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Heavy favorite #3 Harper's Corner dominates the speed and class metrics in this six-furlong turf stakes, leaving #4 Almighty One and #7 Royal Companion to vie for minor awards.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
0
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Side Quest and #7 Royal Companion go for the lead together. 67324158
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Side Quest and #7 Royal Companion keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 67324158
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Harper's Corner has taken over in front. Tiring: #6 Side Quest and #7 Royal Companion. 32467158

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 42.6%
Price horse: Almighty One (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Harper's Corner EP Neutral
P Lopez
C A Lynch
 4/1
43
★★★★☆
75.8
 Top Pick
4 Almighty One —
J Lezcano
K Rice
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
63.9
 Value Play
7 Royal Companion E Misfit
K Carmouche
M J Trombetta
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
63.6
 Longshot
6 Side Quest E Misfit
R Santana, Jr.
W Walden
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
62.6
  
8 Yolo Train —
F Prat
C C Brown
 7/2
9
★★★★☆
62.2
  
2 More Champagne —
E J Zayas
T Morley
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
61.1
  
1 Brickyard Belle —
M Franco
M Clement
 2/1
7
★★★★☆
60.8
  
5 Medinah —
D Davis
M E Casse
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Harper's Corner
EP Neutral
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
C A Lynch
43
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Almighty One
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
K Rice
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Royal Companion
E Misfit
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
M J Trombetta
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
6
Side Quest
E Misfit
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
W Walden
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
8
Yolo Train
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
2
More Champagne
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
T Morley
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse
1
Brickyard Belle
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
M Clement
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse
5
Medinah
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M E Casse
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $250,000
Purse$250,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:22 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The $250,000 stakes feature at a mile and a sixteenth on the turf is a wide-open contest where Chad Brown's #6 Domestic Agenda faces Canadian shipper #5 Bounce Back, who brings superior raw speed figures.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 16.2%
Price horse: Bounce Back (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Domestic Agenda —
F Prat
C C Brown
 2/1
16
★★★★☆
62.8
 Top Pick
5 Bounce Back —
A Fresu
M E Casse
 9/2
16
★★★★☆
62.7
 Value Play
4 Fiora —
R Santana, Jr.
P Antonacci
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
62.2
  
1 Runaway Bride —
E J Zayas
D Beckman
 5/1
14
★★★★☆
61.6
  
2 Golden Siren —
D Davis
M E Casse
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
7 Bittersweet Memory —
M Franco
K Danner
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
3 Quibbler E —
K Carmouche
R Mott
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.6
 Longshot
8 Sunny Bird —
C Elliott
K Brion
 7/2
7
★★★☆☆
55.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Domestic Agenda
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Bounce Back
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
M E Casse
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
4
Fiora
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
P Antonacci
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
1
Runaway Bride
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
D Beckman
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.6
Post · Horse
2
Golden Siren
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M E Casse
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
7
Bittersweet Memory
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
K Danner
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Quibbler
E —
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
R Mott
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse
8
Sunny Bird
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
K Brion
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $500,000
Purse$500,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:53 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
In the $500,000 stakes at one mile, #5 U. S. S. Valor looms large off a massive triple-digit speed figure at Saratoga, but #2 Raku ships in from Monmouth with competitive figures and tactical speed.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 34.5%
Price horse: Raku (12/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 U. S. S. Valor —
M Franco
C R McGaughey III
 3/5
34
★★★★☆
70.8
 Top Pick
2 Raku E —
P Lopez
K J Breen
 12/1
24
★★★★☆
67.8
 Value Play
3 Gaudreau —
F Prat
C C Brown
 8/5
20
★★★★☆
65.9
  
6 Earth Song —
R Santana, Jr.
J Delgado
 15/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.6
 Longshot
4 Club Reign —
E J Zayas
D Beckman
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
1 Johnny Hockey P —
K Davis
A Arriaga
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
51.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
U. S. S. Valor
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
34
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.8
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Raku
E —
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
K J Breen
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
Post · Horse
3
Gaudreau
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.9
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Earth Song
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
J Delgado
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
4
Club Reign
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
D Beckman
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse
1
Johnny Hockey
P —
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
A Arriaga
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $500,000
Purse$500,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:31 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The $500,000 juvenile fillies stakes at one mile comes down to whether #7 Velora can repeat her 90 speed figure victory from Saratoga or if Chad Brown-trained #4 Libby Lloyd can run her down.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 30.2%
Price horse: Libby Lloyd (8/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Velora —
M Franco
L Rice
 7/2
30
★★★★☆
70.2
 Top Pick
4 Libby Lloyd —
F Prat
C C Brown
 8/5
25
★★★★☆
68.5
 Value Play
6 Rum Twist —
P Lopez
M A Hennig
 3/1
17
★★★★☆
65.4
  
3 Girls Wear Pearls E —
J E Morelos
J M Antonucci
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
60.1
 Longshot
2 She's a Twelve E —
D Davis
K J Breen
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
5 Dotsy —
K Carmouche
J A Grabowski
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
55.5
  
1 Revenge of the Sis —
E J Zayas
G Weaver
 9/2
5
★★★☆☆
55.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Velora
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Libby Lloyd
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
6
Rum Twist
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
M A Hennig
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Girls Wear Pearls
E —
Jockey
J E Morelos
Trainer
J M Antonucci
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse
2
She's a Twelve
E —
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
K J Breen
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse
5
Dotsy
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
J A Grabowski
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse
1
Revenge of the Sis
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
G Weaver
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #1 My Kid's Said No, #5 Cactus Closer.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $200,000
Purse$200,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time5:06 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Nine turf sprinters contest this $200,000 dash, where Kentucky Downs runner-up #3 Good to Be King faces high-figure shipper #1 My Kid's Said No.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 My Kid's Said No and #5 Cactus Closer go for the lead together. #3 Good to Be King and #8 Golden Corsair drop to the back. 159647283
  2. Middle around the turn #1 My Kid's Said No and #5 Cactus Closer keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 156942783
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Regent's Park has taken over in front. Moving forward: #6 Uncle Kef, #4 Luminous Beauty and #8 Golden Corsair. Tiring: #1 My Kid's Said No and #5 Cactus Closer. 296478153

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 22.3%
Price horse: My Kid's Said No (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Good to Be King S Fits
M Franco
G R Arnold II
 5/2
22
★★★★☆
69.7
 Top Pick
1 My Kid's Said No E Misfit
F H Da Silva
T Birdwell
 12/1
15
★★★★☆
66.5
 Value Play
2 Regent's Park P Fits
P Lopez
J Delgado
 10/1
12
★★★★☆
64.5
 Longshot
9 Pinpoint —
R Santana, Jr.
T A Pletcher
 9/2
11
★★★★☆
63.8
  
4 Luminous Beauty EP Neutral
J E Morelos
J M Antonucci
 4/1
10
★★★★☆
63.0
  
6 Uncle Kef EP Neutral
J Lezcano
K Rice
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
61.9
  
7 Just Joe —
F Prat
G Weaver
 5/1
9
★★★★☆
61.9
  
8 Golden Corsair P Fits
D Davis
B Kelly
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
58.1
  
5 Cactus Closer E Misfit
K Carmouche
D L Romans
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Good to Be King
S Fits
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
G R Arnold II
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.7
Post · Horse Value Play
1
My Kid's Said No
E Misfit
Jockey
F H Da Silva
Trainer
T Birdwell
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.5
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Regent's Park
P Fits
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
J Delgado
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
9
Pinpoint
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
T A Pletcher
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
4
Luminous Beauty
EP Neutral
Jockey
J E Morelos
Trainer
J M Antonucci
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
6
Uncle Kef
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
K Rice
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
7
Just Joe
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
G Weaver
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
8
Golden Corsair
P Fits
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
B Kelly
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse
5
Cactus Closer
E Misfit
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
D L Romans
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 11
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $250,000
Purse$250,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:39 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
European import #11 Dover Street brings Group-level form into this $250,000 turf route, towering over domestic rivals #1 Chief of Peace and #12 Let Em Know.
PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 42.4%
Price horse: Chief of Peace (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Dover Street P —
P Lopez
R Hannon Jr.
 5/1
42
★★★★☆
75.9
 Top Pick
1 Chief of Peace —
M Franco
M Clement
 8/1
7
★★★★☆
61.0
 Value Play
12 Let Em Know P —
E J Zayas
D Beckman
 8/1
7
★★★★☆
60.6
 Longshot
10 High Official —
F Prat
T A Pletcher
 4/1
7
★★★★☆
60.4
  
8 And the Runner Is —
R Gutierrez
M E Casse
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.1
  
2 House of War —
A Fresu
J R Abreu
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
9 Berta's Stitch P —
J A Gomez
J P Terranova II
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
3 Kipros —
D Davis
R Handal
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
4 Roscoe Goose —
K Carmouche
R Mott
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.0
  
5 Pass On By E —
J Lezcano
C R McGaughey III
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
55.5
  
6 Blaring Ambition —
C Elliott
M J Maker
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
55.3
  
7 Stock Rising —
R Santana, Jr.
T A Pletcher
 10/1
3
★★★☆☆
54.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Dover Street
P —
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
R Hannon Jr.
42
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.9
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Chief of Peace
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
M Clement
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse Longshot
12
Let Em Know
P —
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
D Beckman
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse
10
High Official
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
T A Pletcher
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
8
And the Runner Is
—
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
M E Casse
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse
2
House of War
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
J R Abreu
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse
9
Berta's Stitch
P —
Jockey
J A Gomez
Trainer
J P Terranova II
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse
3
Kipros
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
R Handal
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
4
Roscoe Goose
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
R Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
5
Pass On By
E —
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse
6
Blaring Ambition
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
M J Maker
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.3
Post · Horse
7
Stock Rising
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
T A Pletcher
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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