Curated Betting Card

Belmont Park

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2026-10-15 Morning Card
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Belmont Park · full board
Strongest play
R3
Risk Tolerance #2
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Go Dharma #2
30/1 ML
Deepest field
R8
15 runners
15
Pace shape
R4
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Belmont Park presents an eight-race card highlighted by sharp turf routes and competitive dirt sprints. Race 3 features the afternoon's most formidable single in Chad Brown trainee Risk Tolerance, who brings triple-digit turf figures into a one-mile-and-a-sixteenth allowance test. Elsewhere, competitive maiden and claiming events offer strong opportunities to back live price players, notably in Race 7 with upstate shipper Probability and across wide-open juvenile turf dashes in Races 6 and 8.
Races 8 Status Completed View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Nobody wants the lead, so the early running order is hard to predict.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$38,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:10 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Three
Storyline
The opener turns on a head-to-head matchup between Delaware invader #7 Where's Your Boom and local regular #6 Private Flight, with both searching for a breakthrough after multiple underneath finishes against maiden company.
Pace shape No Speed
E
0
EP
0
P
3
S
2

Early running order is unreliable.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up No Speed
  1. Early leaving the gate Nobody wants the lead, so #2 Go Dharma may end up there by default. 2146753
  2. Middle around the turn A slow pace keeps the field bunched together. 2146753
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Go Dharma is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 2146753

Nobody wants the lead, so the early order here is a rough guess.

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 29.0%
Price horse: Private Flight (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Where's Your Boom S Neutral
S Marin
A J Green
 6/1
29
★★★★☆
61.5
 Top Pick
6 Private Flight S Neutral
K Carmouche
R Samsundar
 8/1
28
★★★★☆
61.3
 Value Play
5 Sorrentino —
A Fresu
T A Pletcher
 4/5
12
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
1 Mr R T P Fits
C Elliott
R Samsundar
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
54.2
  
2 Go Dharma P Fits
R Santana, Jr.
N Chatterpaul
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.4
 Longshot
4 Uncle Barrie P Fits
C Gonzalez
R Metivier
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.0
  
3 In Front Runner —
E J Zayas
A Sano
 3/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Where's Your Boom
S Neutral
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
A J Green
29
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Private Flight
S Neutral
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
R Samsundar
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse
5
Sorrentino
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
T A Pletcher
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
1
Mr R T
P Fits
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
R Samsundar
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Go Dharma
P Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
N Chatterpaul
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
4
Uncle Barrie
P Fits
Jockey
C Gonzalez
Trainer
R Metivier
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.0
Post · Horse
3
In Front Runner
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
A Sano
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming
Purse$58,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:43 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A sprawling six-furlong sprint where #5 Big Hat Willie comes in off a sharp 85-figure win over the track, but faces severe pace pressure from #2 Trust Issues and #6 Burninhunkoflove.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
3
P
4
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #7 Disarmed, #8 Private Desire and #1 Beach Colt all go for the lead. 781365924
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 781365924
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #7 Disarmed is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 781365924

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 16.9%
Price horse: Kid Billy (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Burninhunkoflove P Neutral
F Prat
O Noda
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
69.2
 Top Pick
4 Kid Billy —
A Fresu
R R Rodriguez
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
68.0
 Value Play
5 Big Hat Willie P Neutral
R Maragh
L Shivmangal
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
66.8
  
3 Picture This P Neutral
R Santana, Jr.
S Klesaris
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
65.8
  
2 Trust Issues —
R Gutierrez
G E Charlerie
 9/2
10
★★★★☆
64.3
  
1 Beach Colt EP Fits
C Elliott
A M Sanchez
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
63.8
  
9 Stewie P Neutral
M Franco
M E Friedman
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
63.7
  
8 Private Desire EP Fits
J Nolasco
T Morley
 7/2
9
★★★★☆
63.5
  
7 Disarmed EP Fits
P Pena
R R Rodriguez
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
63.3
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Burninhunkoflove
P Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
O Noda
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Kid Billy
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
R R Rodriguez
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse
5
Big Hat Willie
P Neutral
Jockey
R Maragh
Trainer
L Shivmangal
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse
3
Picture This
P Neutral
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
S Klesaris
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.8
Post · Horse
2
Trust Issues
—
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
G E Charlerie
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
1
Beach Colt
EP Fits
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
A M Sanchez
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
9
Stewie
P Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
M E Friedman
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.7
Post · Horse
8
Private Desire
EP Fits
Jockey
J Nolasco
Trainer
T Morley
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Disarmed
EP Fits
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
R R Rodriguez
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Three
Purse$108,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:16 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won three races or other eligible conditions at one and one sixteenth miles on turf
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Heavy favorite #2 Risk Tolerance towers over this turf allowance on speed figures, but #4 Capture the Flag and #1 Sherlock's Jewel bring enough late kick to capitalize if the chalk encounters any traffic around two turns.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
3
P
2
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Capture the Flag, #5 Discreet Dancer and #3 Tee At One all go for the lead. 4532716
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 4532716
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Capture the Flag is still in front. Moving forward: #1 Sherlock's Jewel and #6 Energize. 4523716

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 38.3%
Price horse: Sherlock's Jewel (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Risk Tolerance P Neutral
F Prat
C C Brown
 2/5
38
★★★★☆
77.8
 Top Pick
1 Sherlock's Jewel S Neutral
K Carmouche
J Sharp
 9/2
13
★★★★☆
68.7
 Value Play
4 Capture the Flag EP Fits
M Franco
T A Pletcher
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
68.4
  
3 Tee At One EP Fits
J Castellano
S Klesaris
 30/1
11
★★★★☆
67.4
 Longshot
7 Versus P Neutral
D Davis
K J Breen
 20/1
10
★★★★☆
66.5
  
6 Energize S Neutral
A Fresu
M Stidham
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
65.0
  
5 Discreet Dancer EP Fits
J Lezcano
A Sano
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
62.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Risk Tolerance
P Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
38
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.8
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Sherlock's Jewel
S Neutral
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
J Sharp
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse
4
Capture the Flag
EP Fits
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
T A Pletcher
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Tee At One
EP Fits
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
S Klesaris
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse
7
Versus
P Neutral
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
K J Breen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.5
Post · Horse
6
Energize
S Neutral
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
M Stidham
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
5
Discreet Dancer
EP Fits
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
A Sano
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #5 Math Tutor, #1 Disparate Impact.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $55,000 Or Less Or Which Have Started In A Maiden Auction Race
Purse$75,000
Claiming$55,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:49 PM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward claiming price $55,000 or maiden auction starter eligibility. Six furlongs
Storyline
Six evenly matched dirt sprinters clash where Brad Cox trainee #2 Helmet of Will returns from a year-long layoff against battle-tested Saratoga runners #6 Sea Vista and #5 Math Tutor.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Math Tutor and #1 Disparate Impact go for the lead together. 514326
  2. Middle around the turn #5 Math Tutor and #1 Disparate Impact keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 514326
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Bold Love is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #6 Sea Vista, #3 Tartabull and #2 Helmet of Will. Tiring: #5 Math Tutor and #1 Disparate Impact. 463251

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 19.9%
Price horse: Helmet of Will (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Sea Vista P Fits
R Santana, Jr.
M J Trombetta
 3/1
20
★★★★☆
65.6
 Top Pick
2 Helmet of Will EP Neutral
F Prat
B H Cox
 4/1
19
★★★★☆
65.1
 Value Play
5 Math Tutor E Misfit
M Franco
I Kantarmaci
 9/5
16
★★★★☆
63.8
  
3 Tartabull EP Neutral
J Castellano
L Rice
 5/2
16
★★★★☆
63.6
  
4 Bold Love —
L R Rivera, Jr.
C Summers
 12/1
16
★★★★☆
63.5
 Longshot
1 Disparate Impact E Misfit
J Lezcano
M Arenas
 8/1
14
★★★★☆
62.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Sea Vista
P Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M J Trombetta
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Helmet of Will
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.1
Post · Horse
5
Math Tutor
E Misfit
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
3
Tartabull
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
L Rice
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Bold Love
—
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
C Summers
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
1
Disparate Impact
E Misfit
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
M Arenas
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #5 Laughing Boy, #3 Bootleg Runner.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming
Purse$35,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:23 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Short-priced morning line favorite #1 Ancient World steps up after a maiden win at Saratoga, but drawing the rail at 6 1/2 furlongs leaves him vulnerable to mid-Atlantic shipper #2 Tenebris.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
0
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Bootleg Runner and #5 Laughing Boy go for the lead together. #9 He's Got This and #7 Apollo Code drop to the back. 358216479
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Bootleg Runner and #5 Laughing Boy keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 358216479
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #8 Graywing has taken over in front. Moving forward: #2 Tenebris, #1 Ancient World and #4 Sin Nombre. Tiring: #3 Bootleg Runner and #5 Laughing Boy. 821647935

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.8%
Price horse: Tenebris (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Ancient World EP Neutral
M Franco
L Rice
 6/5
20
★★★★☆
69.6
 Top Pick
2 Tenebris EP Neutral
L R Rivera, Jr.
M Vera
 6/1
18
★★★★☆
68.7
 Value Play
7 Apollo Code S Fits
C Hargrove
R Handal
 5/1
15
★★★★☆
67.4
  
9 He's Got This S Fits
J Castellano
C J Englehart
 6/1
15
★★★★☆
67.0
  
4 Sin Nombre S Fits
K Davis
J Romero
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
63.4
 Longshot
6 Neuschwanstein —
J Lezcano
J Romero
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.9
  
5 Laughing Boy E Misfit
R Bowen
M A Simmonds
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
3 Bootleg Runner E Misfit
P Pena
A Arriaga
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.4
  
8 Graywing EP Neutral
F Villa Pino
E E Jones
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Ancient World
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Tenebris
EP Neutral
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
M Vera
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse
7
Apollo Code
S Fits
Jockey
C Hargrove
Trainer
R Handal
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse
9
He's Got This
S Fits
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
C J Englehart
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Sin Nombre
S Fits
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
J Romero
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
6
Neuschwanstein
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
J Romero
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
Post · Horse
5
Laughing Boy
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
M A Simmonds
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
3
Bootleg Runner
E Misfit
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
A Arriaga
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse
8
Graywing
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Villa Pino
Trainer
E E Jones
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New York Sta
Purse$56,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:57 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens
Storyline
A contentious group of juvenile state-breds stretch out around two turns, where #7 Motorcycle Cop brings the most seasoned turf pedigree into a battle against second-out improver #3 Epic Prayer.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.8%
Price horse: Epic Prayer (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Motorcycle Cop P —
M Franco
R Atras
 7/2
22
★★★☆☆
54.4
 Top Pick
3 Epic Prayer —
F Prat
A J Green
 4/1
16
★★★☆☆
51.9
 Value Play
10 Cream of the Crop P —
A Fresu
J B Begg
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
8 Papa Brez —
D Davis
A J Green
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
47.1
 Longshot
2 Falconer —
R Santana, Jr.
M Clement
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
6 Cream and Crimson —
L R Rivera, Jr.
J P Terranova II
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.8
  
1 Santis —
S Marin
M J Maker
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.6
  
4 Cuylle P —
R Silvera
R Keithan
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
45.1
  
5 Mindful of You —
J Lezcano
D S Ryan
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
9 Beckett —
C Elliott
M J Maker
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
40.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Motorcycle Cop
P —
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
R Atras
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.4
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Epic Prayer
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
A J Green
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
Post · Horse
10
Cream of the Crop
P —
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
J B Begg
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Papa Brez
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
A J Green
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.1
Post · Horse
2
Falconer
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M Clement
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
6
Cream and Crimson
—
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
J P Terranova II
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse
1
Santis
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
M J Maker
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.6
Post · Horse
4
Cuylle
P —
Jockey
R Silvera
Trainer
R Keithan
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.1
Post · Horse
5
Mindful of You
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
D S Ryan
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
9
Beckett
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
M J Maker
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge. No true front-runner here; the lone presser is likely to inherit the lead.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$105,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:31 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Consistent class climber #5 Calling Card looks to leverage his local form over a mile, but Finger Lakes shipper #6 Probability brings back-to-back fast figures that make him a live threat at a square price.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
0
EP
1
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Max Money should break on top. 1372465
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Max Money sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 1372465
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Max Money is still in front. Moving forward: #5 Calling Card. 1375246

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 28.9%
Price horse: Probability (10/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Calling Card S Neutral
M Franco
L Rice
 5/2
29
★★★★☆
71.7
 Top Pick
6 Probability —
S Marin
A J Green
 10/1
17
★★★★☆
67.3
 Value Play
2 Twohonestmischief —
F Prat
C J Englehart
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
66.7
  
1 Max Money EP Fits
R Santana, Jr.
M J Maker
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
64.0
  
4 Tuning In —
E J Zayas
H Bond
 7/5
10
★★★★☆
62.6
  
7 Solo Jim P Neutral
A Fresu
M A Hennig
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
62.0
 Longshot
3 Kaz Oil Changer P Neutral
L R Rivera, Jr.
D K Synnefias
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Calling Card
S Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
29
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.7
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Probability
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
A J Green
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse
2
Twohonestmischief
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C J Englehart
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse
1
Max Money
EP Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M J Maker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.0
Post · Horse
4
Tuning In
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
H Bond
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Solo Jim
P Neutral
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
M A Hennig
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
3
Kaz Oil Changer
P Neutral
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
D K Synnefias
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old Which Have Sold Or Rna'd For $65,000 Or Less In T
Purse$80,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time5:05 PM ET
Field Size15
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maiden two-year-old fillies sold or RNA'd for $65
Storyline
A massive 15-horse juvenile turf sprint where experienced fillies #10 Southern Kiss and #9 R Kan't Miss face an unexposed group of first-time starters and big-priced runners.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.4%
Price horse: R Kan't Miss (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Southern Kiss E —
E J Zayas
M E Casse
 9/2
16
★★★☆☆
55.4
 Top Pick
9 R Kan't Miss —
M J Husbands
S A Joseph, Jr.
 7/2
16
★★★☆☆
55.0
 Value Play
1 Avalon Beach —
R Santana, Jr.
M J Maker
 5/1
9
★★★☆☆
50.3
  
4 Perfect Flow —
F Prat
A W Dutrow
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
14 Decimal Point —
K Carmouche
L Bartkowski
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.4
  
13 Mia On Tap —
L R Rivera, Jr.
D K Synnefias
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.0
  
12 Bag the Gold —
M Franco
G Weaver
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.9
  
2 That's Not Nice —
A Fresu
C Summers
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.5
 Longshot
8 So Angelina P —
D A Rivera
A Arriaga
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
5 Tertia Time —
J Castellano
B N Levine
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.4
  
7 Coastal Beauty —
K Carmouche
R N Falcone, Jr.
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
3 Sparky's Delight —
D Davis
A J Green
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
6 She's Slick —
S Marin
C R McGaughey III
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
11 Innsense —
K Davis
R S Lerman
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.8
  
15 Money Queen —
A Adorno
J T Servis
 15/1
2
★★☆☆☆
38.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Southern Kiss
E —
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
M E Casse
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse Value Play
9
R Kan't Miss
—
Jockey
M J Husbands
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
Post · Horse
1
Avalon Beach
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M J Maker
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.3
Post · Horse
4
Perfect Flow
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
A W Dutrow
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
14
Decimal Point
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
L Bartkowski
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.4
Post · Horse
13
Mia On Tap
—
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
D K Synnefias
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.0
Post · Horse
12
Bag the Gold
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
G Weaver
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.9
Post · Horse Longshot
2
That's Not Nice
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
C Summers
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.5
Post · Horse
8
So Angelina
P —
Jockey
D A Rivera
Trainer
A Arriaga
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
5
Tertia Time
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
B N Levine
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.4
Post · Horse
7
Coastal Beauty
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
R N Falcone, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
Post · Horse
3
Sparky's Delight
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
A J Green
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
6
She's Slick
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
11
Innsense
—
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
R S Lerman
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.8
Post · Horse
15
Money Queen
—
Jockey
A Adorno
Trainer
J T Servis
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 15-horse field.
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