Curated Betting Card

Belmont Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 4.

2026-10-18 Race 4 Morning Card
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Belmont Park · full board
Strongest play
R3
Arabian Power #2
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Osmosis #6
5/2 ML
Deepest field
R8
13 runners
13
Pace shape
R2
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Belmont Park presents an eight-race program headlined by competitive turf marathons and several competitive maiden contests. Short-priced favorites like Arabian Power in Race 3 and Heirsuta in Race 4 bring high-figure form that demands respect, but both carry tactical vulnerability against capable underneath horses. Value opportunities emerge primarily in the turf routes, where price angles like Dover Street and Beach Sandals in Race 8 provide solid leverage against spread fields.
Races 8 Status Completed View Morning
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Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 5/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:10 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Chad Brown trainee #5 Mistborn stretches out to 1 5/16 miles off solid Saratoga and Monmouth turf efforts, but she must prove her stamina against #2 Stand the Rain and #1 Home Wrecker, both of whom possess proven staying pedigree and tactical position over this course.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
0
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Sister Jean should break on top. #5 Mistborn and #2 Stand the Rain drop to the back. 316425
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Sister Jean sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 316425
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Sister Jean is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 316254

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 29.6%
Price horse: Stand the Rain (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Mistborn S Neutral
F Prat
C C Brown
 7/2
30
★★★★☆
66.3
 Top Pick
2 Stand the Rain S Neutral
M Franco
M Clement
 3/1
20
★★★★☆
63.1
 Value Play
1 Home Wrecker —
K Carmouche
D Gargan
 5/1
19
★★★★☆
62.7
  
6 Osmosis EP Fits
R Santana, Jr.
T A Pletcher
 5/2
15
★★★★☆
60.4
 Longshot
3 Sister Jean E Fits
E J Zayas
D Beckman
 3/1
13
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
4 Friendship Sloop
J Lezcano
M R Matz
 8/1
3
★★★☆☆
45.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Mistborn
S Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Stand the Rain
S Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
M Clement
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.1
Post · Horse
1
Home Wrecker
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
D Gargan
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Osmosis
EP Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
T A Pletcher
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
3
Sister Jean
E Fits
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
D Beckman
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
4
Friendship Sloop
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
M R Matz
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #3 Shadow Dragon, #5 Sunday Boy.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or Claiming Pri
Purse$108,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:43 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Linda Rice holds a powerful uncoupled entry with #4 Caddiemaster and #2 Dear Chairman, with the former looking to capitalize on a recent 89 speed figure against local runner-up #6 Berning Beauty who posted a career-best 90 last out.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Shadow Dragon and #5 Sunday Boy go for the lead together. #6 Berning Beauty drops to the back. 352146
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Shadow Dragon and #5 Sunday Boy keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 352164
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Dear Chairman has taken over in front. Moving forward: #6 Berning Beauty. Tiring: #3 Shadow Dragon and #5 Sunday Boy. 261435

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 33.3%
Price horse: Dear Chairman (7/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Caddiemaster —
M Franco
L Rice
 5/2
33
★★★★☆
73.0
 Top Pick
2 Dear Chairman EP Neutral
F Prat
L Rice
 7/2
18
★★★★☆
67.8
 Value Play
3 Shadow Dragon E Misfit
K Carmouche
G Rodriguez
 6/1
17
★★★★☆
67.1
  
6 Berning Beauty P Fits
K Davis
C Baker
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
64.7
  
5 Sunday Boy E Misfit
C Elliott
J T Ryerson
 2/1
12
★★★★☆
64.2
  
1 Palace Boss EP Neutral
J Nolasco
H De Paz
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
59.9
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Caddiemaster
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
33
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.0
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Dear Chairman
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
L Rice
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
Post · Horse
3
Shadow Dragon
E Misfit
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
G Rodriguez
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.1
Post · Horse
6
Berning Beauty
P Fits
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
C Baker
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse
5
Sunday Boy
E Misfit
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
J T Ryerson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Palace Boss
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Nolasco
Trainer
H De Paz
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Nobody wants the lead, so the early running order is hard to predict.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$59,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time2:16 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Heavy even-money favorite #2 Arabian Power brings a commanding 88 speed figure over the local turf course, but #3 Eske Castle makes an intriguing turf sprint debut for Wesley Ward following an extended layoff.
Pace shape No Speed
E
0
EP
0
P
2
S
1

Early running order is unreliable.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up No Speed
  1. Early leaving the gate Nobody wants the lead, so #7 Oligarch may end up there by default. 7124635
  2. Middle around the turn A slow pace keeps the field bunched together. 7124635
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #7 Oligarch is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 7124635

Nobody wants the lead, so the early order here is a rough guess.

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 51.7%
Price horse: Eske Castle (9/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Arabian Power —
M Franco
B H Cox
 1/1
52
★★★★☆
70.0
 Top Pick
3 Eske Castle —
A Fresu
W A Ward
 9/5
15
★★★☆☆
59.2
 Value Play
4 War Profiteer S Neutral
S Marin
E R Barker
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.3
 Longshot
6 Frenchquarter Note —
F Prat
G Weaver
 4/1
9
★★★☆☆
55.5
  
7 Oligarch P Fits
E J Zayas
J S Pregman, Jr.
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
54.5
  
1 Nod to Tran P Fits
R Silvera
G DiPrima
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
5 Enticed Master —
F Villa Pino
E E Jones
 30/1
1
★★☆☆☆
36.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Arabian Power
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
B H Cox
52
Win Prob
ML Odds
1/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Eske Castle
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
W A Ward
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse Longshot
4
War Profiteer
S Neutral
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
E R Barker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.3
Post · Horse
6
Frenchquarter Note
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
G Weaver
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse
7
Oligarch
P Fits
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J S Pregman, Jr.
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
1
Nod to Tran
P Fits
Jockey
R Silvera
Trainer
G DiPrima
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
5
Enticed Master
—
Jockey
F Villa Pino
Trainer
E E Jones
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 36.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:49 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Chad Brown juvenile #2 Heirsuta ran a sharp second with a 71 speed figure on debut at Saratoga, but she stretches to a two-turn mile against Ken McPeek trainee #6 Inside Edge, who brings rapid morning workout times into her second career outing.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 42.6%
Price horse: Inside Edge (5/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Heirsuta —
F Prat
C C Brown
 7/5
43
★★★★☆
60.4
 Top Pick
6 Inside Edge —
M Franco
K G McPeek
 5/1
16
★★★☆☆
52.0
 Value Play
5 Norah Begorrah —
K Carmouche
H De Paz
 2/1
13
★★★☆☆
50.5
 Longshot
3 Globe Runner —
E Ruiz
A Velazquez
 8/1
13
★★★☆☆
50.3
  
4 Burrata S —
D Davis
R Handal
 12/1
9
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
1 Tumoohaat —
R Santana, Jr.
T A Pletcher
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Heirsuta
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
43
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Inside Edge
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
K G McPeek
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.0
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Norah Begorrah
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
H De Paz
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
3
Globe Runner
—
Jockey
E Ruiz
Trainer
A Velazquez
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.3
Post · Horse
4
Burrata
S —
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
R Handal
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
1
Tumoohaat
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
T A Pletcher
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Mai
Purse$65,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:23 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, or starter
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
#5 Bryant and Cooper drops into allowance-optional claiming company after back-to-back Saratoga placings, but #4 Starlight Dancer and #3 Paula's Choice both bring matching speed figures from that same September 4 Spa contest.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
1
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Mobay Princess should break on top. #2 Stella Fortuna and #5 Bryant and Cooper drop to the back. 614789352
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 641789352
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Starlight Dancer is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #8 Artistic Success, #5 Bryant and Cooper and #2 Stella Fortuna. Tiring: #1 Gallega. 468179523

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 22.2%
Price horse: Paula's Choice (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Bryant and Cooper S Neutral
M Franco
C C Brown
 2/1
22
★★★★☆
68.6
 Top Pick
3 Paula's Choice —
F Prat
J Sharp
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
65.7
 Value Play
4 Starlight Dancer —
K Carmouche
M Nevin
 5/1
16
★★★★☆
65.7
  
9 Endless Vow —
R Santana, Jr.
H De Paz
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
62.2
  
6 Mobay Princess E Neutral
S Marin
A J Green
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
60.3
 Longshot
1 Gallega EP Fits
E J Zayas
S A Joseph, Jr.
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
2 Stella Fortuna S Neutral
D Davis
M Miceli
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.4
  
7 She Takes Cash EP Fits
J Castellano
C J Englehart
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
8 Artistic Success P Neutral
A Fresu
I Kantarmaci
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Bryant and Cooper
S Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C C Brown
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.6
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Paula's Choice
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
J Sharp
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.7
Post · Horse
4
Starlight Dancer
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
M Nevin
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.7
Post · Horse
9
Endless Vow
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
H De Paz
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Mobay Princess
E Neutral
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
A J Green
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
1
Gallega
EP Fits
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
2
Stella Fortuna
S Neutral
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M Miceli
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse
7
She Takes Cash
EP Fits
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
C J Englehart
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
8
Artistic Success
P Neutral
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time3:57 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Steve Asmussen trainee #1 Annotate seeks to break her maiden from the rail after running second over this course on October 3, but she must navigate 6 1/2 furlongs against a deep 11-horse field of juvenile state-bred fillies.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 18.1%
Price horse: Kinboshi (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Annotate —
R Santana, Jr.
S M Asmussen
 5/2
18
★★★☆☆
55.1
 Top Pick
11 Kinboshi S —
D Davis
R Handal
 6/1
14
★★★☆☆
53.1
 Value Play
2 Frosty Blaze —
J Lezcano
M Dini
 8/1
13
★★★☆☆
52.2
 Longshot
10 Slinging Slasher —
S Marin
K Danner
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
50.8
  
8 Tappin Magic —
A Fresu
E R Barker
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
50.3
  
9 Decimal Point —
K Carmouche
L Bartkowski
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
48.2
  
5 Perfect Penelope —
M Franco
M Clement
 9/2
6
★★★☆☆
45.8
  
3 Frostburg —
J Castellano
J B Begg
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.6
  
4 Luck Penny —
F Prat
G Weaver
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
7 Roar of Kenna —
R Silvera
P J Quick
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
6 Josie's Watching —
P Pena
J W Ferraro
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Annotate
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
S M Asmussen
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.1
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Kinboshi
S —
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
R Handal
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Frosty Blaze
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
M Dini
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
10
Slinging Slasher
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
K Danner
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.8
Post · Horse
8
Tappin Magic
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
E R Barker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.3
Post · Horse
9
Decimal Point
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
L Bartkowski
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.2
Post · Horse
5
Perfect Penelope
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
M Clement
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse
3
Frostburg
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
J B Begg
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.6
Post · Horse
4
Luck Penny
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
G Weaver
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
7
Roar of Kenna
—
Jockey
R Silvera
Trainer
P J Quick
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
Post · Horse
6
Josie's Watching
—
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
J W Ferraro
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #3 Red State, #2 Lexington Pike, #4 Mike's Magic.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Open
Purse$52,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:31 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Brad Cox runner #3 Red State has finished second in three consecutive starts, but he faces serious pace pressure from #7 Celestial Glaze and #8 Seeker's Hope in a competitive six-furlong dirt dash.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Red State, #4 Mike's Magic and #2 Lexington Pike all go for the lead. #1 On the Hill and #9 Epitaph drop to the back. 342786591
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Red State, #4 Mike's Magic and #2 Lexington Pike keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 342786591
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #7 Celestial Glaze is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #5 Gold Luck, #1 On the Hill and #9 Epitaph. Tiring: #3 Red State, #4 Mike's Magic and #2 Lexington Pike. 785169342

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.6%
Price horse: Celestial Glaze (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Red State E Misfit
M Franco
B H Cox
 9/5
25
★★★★☆
71.8
 Top Pick
7 Celestial Glaze —
K Carmouche
G Rodriguez
 6/1
15
★★★★☆
67.4
 Value Play
1 On the Hill S Fits
E J Zayas
H Bond
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
66.3
 Longshot
8 Seeker's Hope —
F Prat
G Rodriguez
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
65.4
  
5 Gold Luck P Fits
R Santana, Jr.
R Atras
 5/1
9
★★★★☆
63.4
  
6 Special Ops —
D Davis
B R Brown
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
63.3
  
2 Lexington Pike E Misfit
P Pena
J W Ferraro
 15/1
7
★★★★☆
60.8
  
4 Mike's Magic E Misfit
J Nolasco
M Arenas
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
9 Epitaph P Fits
J Castellano
W Potts
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Red State
E Misfit
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
B H Cox
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.8
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Celestial Glaze
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
G Rodriguez
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse Longshot
1
On the Hill
S Fits
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
H Bond
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse
8
Seeker's Hope
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
G Rodriguez
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
5
Gold Luck
P Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
R Atras
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
6
Special Ops
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
B R Brown
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
Post · Horse
2
Lexington Pike
E Misfit
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
J W Ferraro
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse
4
Mike's Magic
E Misfit
Jockey
J Nolasco
Trainer
M Arenas
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
9
Epitaph
P Fits
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
W Potts
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:05 PM ET
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Bill Mott trainee #11 Suspend brings matching 81 and 76 speed figures into this two-year-old turf mile, but wide-post logistics and an overflow field of 13 runners leave him vulnerable to Mark Casse shipper #3 Beach Sandals.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 15.2%
Price horse: Beach Sandals (20/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Suspend —
J Lezcano
W I Mott
 5/1
15
★★★☆☆
57.3
 Top Pick
3 Beach Sandals EP —
E J Zayas
M E Casse
 20/1
13
★★★☆☆
55.7
 Value Play
4 Dover Street P —
D Egan
R Hannon Jr.
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
55.2
  
12 Raise the Roof —
S Marin
H De Paz
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
53.1
 Longshot
8 Bring Cash —
R Maragh
T A Pletcher
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
51.8
  
5 Running in Time —
F Prat
C C Brown
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
50.8
  
2 Arequipe —
C Elliott
A Sano
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
10 Signature Role —
R Santana, Jr.
P Antonacci
 5/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.8
  
1 Katz in the Cradle —
J Castellano
C Summers
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.3
  
6 Therrien —
M Franco
C C Brown
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.8
  
13 Captain G —
D Davis
M E Casse
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.8
  
9 Hold'em —
D Davis
W I Mott
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
7 Prove Me Wrong —
A Fresu
D Beckman
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Suspend
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
W I Mott
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Beach Sandals
EP —
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
M E Casse
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
4
Dover Street
P —
Jockey
D Egan
Trainer
R Hannon Jr.
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse Longshot
12
Raise the Roof
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
H De Paz
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse
8
Bring Cash
—
Jockey
R Maragh
Trainer
T A Pletcher
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.8
Post · Horse
5
Running in Time
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.8
Post · Horse
2
Arequipe
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
A Sano
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse
10
Signature Role
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
P Antonacci
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse
1
Katz in the Cradle
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
C Summers
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.3
Post · Horse
6
Therrien
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C C Brown
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.8
Post · Horse
13
Captain G
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M E Casse
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
9
Hold'em
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
W I Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
7
Prove Me Wrong
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
D Beckman
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
  Go Pro