Curated Betting Card

Belmont Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 5.

2026-10-22 Race 5 Morning Card
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Belmont Park · full board
Strongest play
R5
Liberty's Advance #8
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Full Pour #4
9/2 ML
Deepest field
R8
15 runners
15
Pace shape
R4
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Belmont Park's eight-race program features competitive turf routes and testing dirt sprints, highlighted by allowance company in Race 7 and deep maiden turf fields in Races 5, 6, and 8. Short-priced contenders like Liberty's Advance (Race 5) and Expensive Cut (Race 7) present viable anchors on speed figures, while Races 2 and 3 offer defined upset opportunities against vulnerable morning-line favorites. Wide turf fields late in the card demand tactical discipline, favoring selective horizontal tickets and disciplined intra-race exactas.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$105,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:10 PM ET
Field Size5
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Two Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A compact field of five over 1 1/16 miles centers on whether rail-drawn Grace Reformed can translate a wire-to-wire maiden win at Parx into two-turn starter company against Fedupwiththefed, who possesses proven Belmont distance form. With Katie King breaking alongside, the early pace will be honest enough to test Grace Reformed's stamina at the finish.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.8%
Price horse: Fedupwiththefed (8/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Grace Reformed E —
M Gonzalez
J C Guerrero
 4/1
24
★★★★☆
60.8
 Top Pick
5 Fedupwiththefed P —
F Prat
D G Donk
 8/5
22
★★★★☆
60.1
 Value Play
3 Lady Wisdom —
R Santana, Jr.
M Kantarmaci
 5/1
20
★★★☆☆
59.1
  
4 Full Pour —
P Lopez
M A Hennig
 9/2
18
★★★☆☆
58.3
 Longshot
2 Katie King —
K Carmouche
M A Ferraro
 2/1
17
★★★☆☆
57.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Grace Reformed
E —
Jockey
M Gonzalez
Trainer
J C Guerrero
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Fedupwiththefed
P —
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
D G Donk
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse
3
Lady Wisdom
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M Kantarmaci
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Full Pour
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
M A Hennig
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
Post · Horse
2
Katie King
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
M A Ferraro
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 5-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #2 Abrigado, #4 Mouqeer, #6 Rule Sixty Two.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:42 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Linda Rice holds a potent uncoupled entry with #2 Abrigado and #5 Ican, but heavy morning-line favorite Abrigado must rebound from a flat effort (55 speed figure) at Saratoga. If the favorite falters, uncoupled barnmate Ican or a verified underneath longshot like The Markinater can capitalize at a square price.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
3
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Mouqeer and #6 Rule Sixty Two go for the lead together. #1 Waitin'onasunnyday and #5 Ican drop to the back. 462351
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Mouqeer, #6 Rule Sixty Two and #2 Abrigado keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 462351
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 The Markinater has taken over in front. Moving forward: #5 Ican and #1 Waitin'onasunnyday. Tiring: #4 Mouqeer, #6 Rule Sixty Two and #2 Abrigado. 351462

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 27.1%
Price horse: Ican (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Abrigado E Misfit
M Franco
L Rice
 4/5
27
★★★★☆
65.6
 Top Pick
5 Ican P Fits
J Lezcano
L Rice
 5/2
23
★★★★☆
64.3
 Value Play
4 Mouqeer E Misfit
R Bowen
R Atras
 5/1
17
★★★★☆
61.5
  
3 The Markinater P Fits
D Haddock
D K Synnefias
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
59.0
 Longshot
1 Waitin'onasunnyday P Fits
P Pena
W Potts
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.7
  
6 Rule Sixty Two E Misfit
A Fresu
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Abrigado
E Misfit
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
27
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Ican
P Fits
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
L Rice
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
4
Mouqeer
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
R Atras
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse Longshot
3
The Markinater
P Fits
Jockey
D Haddock
Trainer
D K Synnefias
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse
1
Waitin'onasunnyday
P Fits
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
W Potts
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.7
Post · Horse
6
Rule Sixty Two
E Misfit
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:16 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The key tactical question in this seven-furlong turf maiden is whether #2 He's My Kind can finally break through after pairing three consecutive mid-80s figures across Belmont, Saratoga, and Kentucky Downs, or if #3 About Face can carry his Churchill dirt speed (90 figure in May) onto the lawn.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 He's My Kind should break on top. 21374568
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 21374568
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 He's My Kind is still in front. Moving forward: #4 Spherical. 21347568

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 28.5%
Price horse: About Face (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 He's My Kind E Neutral
F Prat
M Clement
 9/5
28
★★★★☆
68.0
 Top Pick
3 About Face EP Fits
S Marin
H De Paz
 7/2
24
★★★★☆
66.4
 Value Play
7 Weseeulator —
J Castellano
B R Brown
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
62.8
  
1 Fort Griffin EP Fits
K Carmouche
E T Allard
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
59.2
 Longshot
6 Bamboozie —
R Santana, Jr.
J C Englehart
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
55.9
  
8 I'm a Gunner —
E J Zayas
J K Sweezey
 5/1
7
★★★☆☆
55.9
  
4 Spherical P Neutral
L R Rivera, Jr.
C Summers
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
54.0
  
5 Daythemusiclived —
M Franco
M Clement
 5/1
3
★★★☆☆
48.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
He's My Kind
E Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
M Clement
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse Value Play
3
About Face
EP Fits
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
H De Paz
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse
7
Weseeulator
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
B R Brown
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Fort Griffin
EP Fits
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
E T Allard
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse
6
Bamboozie
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
J C Englehart
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.9
Post · Horse
8
I'm a Gunner
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J K Sweezey
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.9
Post · Horse
4
Spherical
P Neutral
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
C Summers
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.0
Post · Horse
5
Daythemusiclived
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
M Clement
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #3 Margarita Molly, #6 Big Heleonora.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming
Purse$37,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:49 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Outside-drawn #7 Emerald Ember brings consistent mid-70s figures and class relief to this six-furlong dash, but must negotiate an outside stalking trip while Linda Rice trainee #4 Prince of Broadway attempts to regain his sharp early-career sprint form.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
3
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Big Heleonora and #3 Margarita Molly go for the lead together. 6314725
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Big Heleonora and #3 Margarita Molly keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 6314725
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Amelia's Echo has taken over in front. Moving forward: #4 Prince of Broadway, #7 Emerald Ember and #2 Expecto Patronum. Tiring: #6 Big Heleonora and #3 Margarita Molly. 1472635

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 29.9%
Price horse: Prince of Broadway (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Emerald Ember P Fits
A Fresu
I Kantarmaci
 7/5
30
★★★★☆
62.7
 Top Pick
4 Prince of Broadway P Fits
M Franco
L Rice
 7/2
17
★★★☆☆
57.9
 Value Play
1 Amelia's Echo EP Neutral
S Gonzalez
I Kantarmaci
 8/1
15
★★★☆☆
57.1
 Longshot
3 Margarita Molly E Misfit
L R Rivera, Jr.
A DeVaux
 6/1
15
★★★☆☆
56.8
  
2 Expecto Patronum P Fits
R Santana, Jr.
M Giangiulio
 4/1
13
★★★☆☆
55.4
  
6 Big Heleonora E Misfit
K Carmouche
M Nevin
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.6
  
5 Maxisure —
D A Rivera
A Arriaga
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Emerald Ember
P Fits
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Prince of Broadway
P Fits
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Amelia's Echo
EP Neutral
Jockey
S Gonzalez
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
Post · Horse
3
Margarita Molly
E Misfit
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
A DeVaux
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.8
Post · Horse
2
Expecto Patronum
P Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M Giangiulio
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse
6
Big Heleonora
E Misfit
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
M Nevin
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.6
Post · Horse
5
Maxisure
—
Jockey
D A Rivera
Trainer
A Arriaga
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Foaled In New York State A
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time3:23 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies And Mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Foaled
Storyline
Bill Mott sends out #8 Liberty's Advance on a quick turnaround following a fourth-place run with a 71 speed figure at Belmont on October 10; the main challenge comes from #9 Great Happenings, who makes her delayed return after running second with a 74 figure in her debut.
PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 33.0%
Price horse: Great Happenings (6/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Liberty's Advance —
J Lezcano
W I Mott
 5/2
33
★★★☆☆
56.2
 Top Pick
9 Great Happenings —
K Davis
J McMahon
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
48.4
 Value Play
2 Probable Choice EP —
R Bowen
O S Barrera III
 20/1
11
★★★☆☆
46.8
 Longshot
5 It'sgoodtobequeen —
M Franco
R Atras
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
46.7
  
11 Mighty Miss —
J Castellano
M Nihei
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
1 Bocage Belle —
J Ventura
E Maver, Jr.
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
10 Funny Gal
D Davis
P J Quick
 10/1
5
★★☆☆☆
40.0
  
3 Lady Vortex —
R Santana, Jr.
B N Levine
 5/1
4
★★☆☆☆
38.3
  
4 Seize the Storm —
D A Rivera
O S Barrera III
 8/1
3
★★☆☆☆
37.0
  
6 City War —
P Pena
M E Friedman
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
35.7
  
7 Gallipoli Girl EP —
R Gutierrez
R Atras
 15/1
2
★★☆☆☆
34.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Liberty's Advance
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
W I Mott
33
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.2
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Great Happenings
—
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
J McMahon
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Probable Choice
EP —
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
O S Barrera III
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
5
It'sgoodtobequeen
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
R Atras
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.7
Post · Horse
11
Mighty Miss
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
M Nihei
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
1
Bocage Belle
—
Jockey
J Ventura
Trainer
E Maver, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
Post · Horse
10
Funny Gal
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
P J Quick
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 40.0
Post · Horse
3
Lady Vortex
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
B N Levine
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.3
Post · Horse
4
Seize the Storm
—
Jockey
D A Rivera
Trainer
O S Barrera III
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.0
Post · Horse
6
City War
—
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
M E Friedman
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.7
Post · Horse
7
Gallipoli Girl
EP —
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
R Atras
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 34.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$59,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:57 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A wide-open one-mile maiden turf event features 11 runners with closely matched form, headed by #3 Majestic Moonlight looking to rebound from a fifth-place try and #6 Outro, who earned an 86 speed figure when second at Saratoga in August.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
2
P
3
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Timeless Melody and #3 Majestic Moonlight go for the lead together. 1382611549710
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 1382611597104
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Majestic Moonlight has taken over in front. Moving forward: #5 Olatz, #9 Just Tell Anne and #7 Al Latafah. Tiring: #1 Timeless Melody. 3812611597104

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 17.9%
Price horse: Outro (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Majestic Moonlight EP Fits
F Prat
J R Abreu
 7/2
18
★★★★☆
63.8
 Top Pick
6 Outro —
J Lezcano
R R Rodriguez
 9/2
16
★★★★☆
62.8
 Value Play
9 Just Tell Anne S Neutral
M Franco
R Handal
 12/1
14
★★★★☆
61.9
  
5 Olatz S Neutral
P Lopez
L Schultz
 10/1
13
★★★★☆
60.9
 Longshot
1 Timeless Melody EP Fits
A Fresu
P Antonacci
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
60.7
  
10 Honor the Numbers S Neutral
C Sutherland
J Delgado
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
11 Battle Winner P Neutral
K Carmouche
J M Antonucci
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
56.0
  
4 Portixol —
R Santana, Jr.
M Clement
 6/1
3
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
7 Al Latafah S Neutral
D Davis
M Dini
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
2 No Difference P Neutral
D A Rivera
A Arriaga
 50/1
2
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
8 Red Beach P Neutral
E J Zayas
H Bond
 6/1
2
★★★☆☆
43.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Majestic Moonlight
EP Fits
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
J R Abreu
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Outro
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
R R Rodriguez
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
9
Just Tell Anne
S Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
R Handal
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Olatz
S Neutral
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
L Schultz
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse
1
Timeless Melody
EP Fits
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
P Antonacci
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.7
Post · Horse
10
Honor the Numbers
S Neutral
Jockey
C Sutherland
Trainer
J Delgado
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
11
Battle Winner
P Neutral
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
J M Antonucci
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
4
Portixol
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M Clement
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse
7
Al Latafah
S Neutral
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M Dini
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
2
No Difference
P Neutral
Jockey
D A Rivera
Trainer
A Arriaga
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
8
Red Beach
P Neutral
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
H Bond
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$35,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:31 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Race 7 hinges on whether rail-drawn #1 Expensive Cut can duplicate his sharp 93 speed figure runner-up effort at Belmont from October 9, or if closers like #3 Jackson Heights and #5 Nantz can run him down over 1 1/16 miles.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
4
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Expensive Cut should break on top. #5 Nantz and #3 Jackson Heights drop to the back. 1672435
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 1672435
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Expensive Cut is still in front. Moving forward: #2 Laughing Boy, #4 Three Technique and #3 Jackson Heights. 1267435

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.2%
Price horse: Jackson Heights (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Expensive Cut E Neutral
R Santana, Jr.
R Atras
 2/1
24
★★★★☆
70.3
 Top Pick
3 Jackson Heights P Neutral
M Franco
I Kantarmaci
 5/1
16
★★★★☆
66.6
 Value Play
5 Nantz P Neutral
S Marin
M Kantarmaci
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
66.2
  
7 Screaming Uncle EP Fits
K Carmouche
G E Charlerie
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
66.2
  
4 Three Technique P Neutral
R Gutierrez
W Potts
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
64.5
  
6 Superpower EP Fits
C Elliott
G E Charlerie
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
63.2
  
2 Laughing Boy P Neutral
R Bowen
M A Simmonds
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
60.7
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Expensive Cut
E Neutral
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
R Atras
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.3
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Jackson Heights
P Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.6
Post · Horse
5
Nantz
P Neutral
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
M Kantarmaci
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse
7
Screaming Uncle
EP Fits
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
G E Charlerie
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse
4
Three Technique
P Neutral
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
W Potts
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
6
Superpower
EP Fits
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
G E Charlerie
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.2
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Laughing Boy
P Neutral
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
M A Simmonds
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #13 Benjis Benefit, #6 Rossbeigh.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/8 Miles
Surfaceturf
Post Time5:05 PM ET
Field Size15
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The finale is a testing 1 1/8-mile turf route where Brad Cox trainee #5 Exonerate brings high-caliber Kentucky speed figures (99 at Kentucky Downs, 94 at Churchill), but must work out a trip through a crowded 15-horse lineup against Richard Dutrow's #2 Epico.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
4
S
5

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Rossbeigh and #13 Benjis Benefit go for the lead together. #10 Noble One and #11 Berman drop to the back. 613315521448121791110
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Rossbeigh and #13 Benjis Benefit keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 613315254148121791110
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Epico has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Newlyn, #4 Maximum Heat and #7 Printer's Alley. Tiring: #15 Sharons Pharoah, #5 Exonerate and #6 Rossbeigh. 231479812155111014613

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 18.4%
Price horse: Epico (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Exonerate EP Neutral
M Franco
B H Cox
 9/5
18
★★★★☆
68.8
 Top Pick
2 Epico P Fits
F Prat
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
65.3
 Value Play
1 Newlyn S Fits
S Marin
G Weaver
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
64.2
  
7 Printer's Alley S Fits
J Castellano
I Kantarmaci
 4/1
9
★★★★☆
63.0
  
9 Light Cav S Fits
R Santana, Jr.
M J Maker
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
13 Benjis Benefit E Misfit
J Castellano
A J Kingsley, Jr.
 9/2
6
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
14 D'oro Cavallo —
K Carmouche
M Shuman
 5/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
3 City Nights EP Neutral
R Maragh
A R Margotta, Jr.
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
15 Sharons Pharoah EP Neutral
S Marin
I Kantarmaci
 9/2
6
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
6 Rossbeigh E Misfit
A Fresu
J B Begg
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
58.1
  
4 Maximum Heat P Fits
R Bowen
O S Barrera III
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
55.9
 Longshot
11 Berman S Fits
C Elliott
T A Hills
 6/1
3
★★★☆☆
52.2
  
10 Noble One S Fits
O Hernandez Moreno
J S Pregman, Jr.
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
12 Blue Pill P Fits
K Davis
J W Ferraro
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
50.0
  
8 Mosconi P Fits
E J Zayas
H Bond
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Exonerate
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
B H Cox
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.8
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Epico
P Fits
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse
1
Newlyn
S Fits
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
G Weaver
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
7
Printer's Alley
S Fits
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
9
Light Cav
S Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M J Maker
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
Post · Horse
13
Benjis Benefit
E Misfit
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
A J Kingsley, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
14
D'oro Cavallo
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
M Shuman
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
3
City Nights
EP Neutral
Jockey
R Maragh
Trainer
A R Margotta, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
15
Sharons Pharoah
EP Neutral
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
6
Rossbeigh
E Misfit
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
J B Begg
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Maximum Heat
P Fits
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
O S Barrera III
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.9
Post · Horse
11
Berman
S Fits
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
T A Hills
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
10
Noble One
S Fits
Jockey
O Hernandez Moreno
Trainer
J S Pregman, Jr.
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
12
Blue Pill
P Fits
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
J W Ferraro
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.0
Post · Horse
8
Mosconi
P Fits
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
H Bond
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 15-horse field.
  Go Pro