Curated Betting Card

Belmont Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 1.

2026-10-28 Race 1 Morning Card
You're viewing the Morning Card
This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Belmont Park · full board
Strongest play
R2
Nevah Bettah #3
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Roseberns Dream #2
10/1 ML
Deepest field
R8
15 runners
15
Pace shape
R3
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Belmont Park's eight-race program offers a balanced mix of juvenile maiden sprints, marathon turf allowances, and competitive state-bred claiming events. The strongest profile on the card appears in Race 3 with Karsten looking poised to graduate over the Widener turf, while Chad Brown holds a potent hand in Race 7 with stakes-caliber turf router Arkhipov. Value hunters should look toward the juvenile maiden in Race 2 and mid-card dirt sprint in Race 6, where price-sensitive alternatives and tactical pacesetters offer attractive counterplays against vulnerable short prices.
Races 8 Status Live View Morning
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Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming
Purse$37,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:10 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Race 1 opens at a two-turn mile and a sixteenth where morning-line favorite #4 Ur Desire must rebound from an eighth-place clunker while #5 Essence L Vee brings steady form and a recent victory at Saratoga into the equation. The race hinges on whether Ur Desire can recapture his summer speed figures or if Essence L Vee's superior current condition carries the day.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Bodegas should break on top. #4 Ur Desire drops to the back. 6213574
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Bodegas sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 6213574
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Bodegas is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 6213574

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.5%
Price horse: Ur Desire (6/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Essence L Vee P Neutral
C Hargrove
M A Hennig
 3/1
22
★★★☆☆
55.2
 Top Pick
4 Ur Desire S Neutral
E J Zayas
J P Terranova II
 6/5
20
★★★☆☆
54.6
 Value Play
1 Queen Sally —
R Maragh
J W Ferraro
 4/1
16
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
3 Luckforyou P Neutral
J Nolasco
J Romero
 15/1
14
★★★☆☆
51.5
  
2 Roseberns Dream EP Fits
S Marin
D L Schettino
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
49.9
 Longshot
7 Icy Legs P Neutral
P Pena
D S Lalman
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
48.4
  
6 Bodegas E Fits
R Gutierrez
H Bond
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
46.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Essence L Vee
P Neutral
Jockey
C Hargrove
Trainer
M A Hennig
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Ur Desire
S Neutral
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J P Terranova II
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.6
Post · Horse
1
Queen Sally
—
Jockey
R Maragh
Trainer
J W Ferraro
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
3
Luckforyou
P Neutral
Jockey
J Nolasco
Trainer
J Romero
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.5
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Roseberns Dream
EP Fits
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
D L Schettino
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
7
Icy Legs
P Neutral
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
D S Lalman
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse
6
Bodegas
E Fits
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
H Bond
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New York Sta
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:41 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This state-bred juvenile maiden sprint centers on #3 Nevah Bettah, the lone runner with a prior start following a third-place debut at Belmont, facing five first-time starters. The key question is whether Nevah Bettah's race experience can stave off well-bred newcomers like #6 Jetty Up and #4 Key Factor.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 34.6%
Price horse: Jetty Up (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Nevah Bettah —
M Franco
J C Englehart
 2/1
35
★★★☆☆
53.6
 Top Pick
6 Jetty Up —
S Marin
M J Maker
 3/1
16
★★★☆☆
47.0
 Value Play
4 Key Factor —
R Santana, Jr.
A J Green
 4/1
13
★★★☆☆
45.0
 Longshot
2 Tiz the Name —
C E Lopez
D K Synnefias
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
7 Bankingonit —
D Davis
J B Begg
 9/2
11
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
5 Kaz' Special One —
L R Rivera, Jr.
D K Synnefias
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
1 Rapidly Royal P —
K Davis
J W Ferraro
 12/1
4
★★☆☆☆
35.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Nevah Bettah
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
J C Englehart
35
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.6
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Jetty Up
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
M J Maker
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.0
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Key Factor
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
A J Green
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
2
Tiz the Name
—
Jockey
C E Lopez
Trainer
D K Synnefias
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
7
Bankingonit
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
J B Begg
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
5
Kaz' Special One
—
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
D K Synnefias
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
1
Rapidly Royal
P —
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
J W Ferraro
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Daisy Doo, #7 Sultan Hassan.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward Foaled In New York State And Approved By The
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time2:12 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This state-bred turf sprint features #6 Karsten, who brings proven turf class and top rider Flavien Prat, squaring off against the consistent maiden #1 Story of Rory. The contest turns on whether Karsten can find enough late punch to overhaul Story of Rory before the wire at six and a half furlongs.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
2
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #7 Sultan Hassan and #4 Daisy Doo go for the lead together. 7463152
  2. Middle around the turn #7 Sultan Hassan and #4 Daisy Doo keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 7463125
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Story of Rory has taken over in front. Moving forward: #2 Runcot. Tiring: #7 Sultan Hassan and #4 Daisy Doo. 1623745

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 34.6%
Price horse: Story of Rory (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Karsten EP Neutral
F Prat
J R Abreu
 3/1
35
★★★★☆
63.2
 Top Pick
1 Story of Rory P Fits
S Marin
A J Green
 7/2
23
★★★☆☆
59.6
 Value Play
4 Daisy Doo E Misfit
J Castellano
R Ribaudo
 4/1
16
★★★☆☆
56.7
  
7 Sultan Hassan E Misfit
R Santana, Jr.
H De Paz
 7/2
14
★★★☆☆
55.5
 Longshot
5 Lolimo —
M Franco
P A Bauer
 4/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.3
  
2 Runcot P Fits
E J Zayas
H Bond
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.5
  
3 Bitter Banker EP Neutral
R Bowen
M Richards
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Karsten
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
J R Abreu
35
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.2
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Story of Rory
P Fits
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
A J Green
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
4
Daisy Doo
E Misfit
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
R Ribaudo
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.7
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Sultan Hassan
E Misfit
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
H De Paz
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse
5
Lolimo
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
P A Bauer
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.3
Post · Horse
2
Runcot
P Fits
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
H Bond
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.5
Post · Horse
3
Bitter Banker
EP Neutral
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
M Richards
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$44,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:43 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Race 4 features an eight-horse sprint where #5 Counterspy returns off a freshening with the field's top speed ratings, but must deal with the race-fit #2 Ancient World, who just ran second over this track on October 15. The outcome hinges on whether Counterspy can transfer his sharp morning works to the afternoon against hardened rivals.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Ancient World should break on top. #8 Sin Nombre and #5 Counterspy drop to the back. 21763458
  2. Middle around the turn #2 Ancient World sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 27163458
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Ancient World is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 27134658

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.3%
Price horse: Ancient World (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Counterspy P Neutral
A Fresu
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 5/2
24
★★★★☆
71.5
 Top Pick
2 Ancient World E Fits
R Bowen
S I Schauer
 4/1
18
★★★★☆
68.9
 Value Play
4 Osbourne P Neutral
M Franco
L Rice
 2/1
18
★★★★☆
68.7
  
7 Treaty Obligation —
S Marin
R R Rodriguez
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
67.3
  
3 Burninhunkoflove P Neutral
C Elliott
O Noda
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
64.4
 Longshot
8 Sin Nombre S Misfit
K Davis
J Romero
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
60.7
  
1 Graywing EP Fits
J Nolasco
E E Jones
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
6 Without Pretence —
P Pena
C Baker
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
55.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Counterspy
P Neutral
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Ancient World
E Fits
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
S I Schauer
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.9
Post · Horse
4
Osbourne
P Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse
7
Treaty Obligation
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
R R Rodriguez
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Burninhunkoflove
P Neutral
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
O Noda
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.4
Post · Horse
8
Sin Nombre
S Misfit
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
J Romero
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.7
Post · Horse
1
Graywing
EP Fits
Jockey
J Nolasco
Trainer
E E Jones
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
6
Without Pretence
—
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
C Baker
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$59,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:14 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A wide-open 12-horse maiden turf route matches #12 Duty, drawing wide for trainer Miguel Clement, against inside rival #4 Old Time Rocknroll from the Linda Rice barn. The critical question is whether Duty can work out a ground-saving trip from post 12 or if Old Time Rocknroll gets first run from an ideal middle gate.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
3
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #12 Duty should break on top. 124621035711189
  2. Middle around the turn #12 Duty sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 124610235711189
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #12 Duty is still in front. Tiring: #2 Fleet N Ready. 124610325711189

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.1%
Price horse: Old Time Rocknroll (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
12 Duty E Fits
S Marin
M Clement
 6/1
23
★★★★☆
71.3
 Top Pick
4 Old Time Rocknroll —
J Castellano
L Rice
 3/1
19
★★★★☆
69.8
 Value Play
3 Souper Cha Ching —
R Santana, Jr.
M J Trombetta
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
65.1
 Longshot
6 Orgonite —
K Carmouche
D G Donk
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
65.0
  
1 Mortal Lock P Neutral
M Franco
G Weaver
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
64.1
  
10 Languid —
A Fresu
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
62.6
  
2 Fleet N Ready EP Fits
D Davis
R Handal
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
60.1
  
9 Cost Effective —
F Prat
C C Brown
 10/1
3
★★★☆☆
54.6
  
5 Conquering Force —
E J Zayas
R Brisset
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
53.7
  
11 Go Dharma P Neutral
P Pena
N Chatterpaul
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
7 Cederberg P Neutral
J Lezcano
M A Hennig
 12/1
2
★★★☆☆
49.3
  
8 Trapping Hands —
F Villa Pino
R Samsundar
 50/1
1
★★★☆☆
43.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
12
Duty
E Fits
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
M Clement
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.3
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Old Time Rocknroll
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
L Rice
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Souper Cha Ching
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M J Trombetta
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.1
Post · Horse
6
Orgonite
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
D G Donk
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
1
Mortal Lock
P Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
G Weaver
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
10
Languid
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
2
Fleet N Ready
EP Fits
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
R Handal
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse
9
Cost Effective
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.6
Post · Horse
5
Conquering Force
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
R Brisset
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.7
Post · Horse
11
Go Dharma
P Neutral
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
N Chatterpaul
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
Post · Horse
7
Cederberg
P Neutral
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
M A Hennig
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.3
Post · Horse
8
Trapping Hands
—
Jockey
F Villa Pino
Trainer
R Samsundar
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge. No true front-runner here; the lone presser is likely to inherit the lead.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming
Purse$40,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:45 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Race 6 features an eight-horse field where morning-line contender #4 Vino Frizzante looks to capitalize on a class relief move following a third-place finish over the track on October 4. The main challenge comes from #7 Moonlight Gal, who has been working sharply since an August freshening and possesses the early speed to test the favorite.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
0
EP
1
P
3
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Dia Por Dia should break on top. 51432876
  2. Middle around the turn #5 Dia Por Dia sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 51432876
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Dia Por Dia is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 54132876

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 29.7%
Price horse: Moonlight Gal (8/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Vino Frizzante P Neutral
M Franco
I Kantarmaci
 7/2
30
★★★★☆
65.9
 Top Pick
7 Moonlight Gal —
R Santana, Jr.
C J Englehart
 8/1
14
★★★☆☆
59.8
 Value Play
3 Pocket Queens P Neutral
S Marin
I Kantarmaci
 9/2
12
★★★☆☆
58.2
 Longshot
5 Dia Por Dia EP Fits
J Lezcano
L Rice
 2/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
2 That'sthefactjack —
E J Zayas
D L Schettino
 3/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
8 Calling an Audible —
L R Rivera, Jr.
E R Barker
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
56.0
  
1 Amy's Light P Neutral
C Elliott
E Pringle
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
55.0
  
6 Caradise —
K Davis
C Bhigroog
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Vino Frizzante
P Neutral
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.9
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Moonlight Gal
—
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
C J Englehart
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Pocket Queens
P Neutral
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
5
Dia Por Dia
EP Fits
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
L Rice
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
2
That'sthefactjack
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
D L Schettino
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse
8
Calling an Audible
—
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
E R Barker
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
1
Amy's Light
P Neutral
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
E Pringle
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
Post · Horse
6
Caradise
—
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
C Bhigroog
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Three
Purse$108,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 5/16 Miles
Surfaceturf
Post Time4:16 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Marathon turf specialists square off at eleven furlongs where Chad Brown trainee #7 Arkhipov brings graded stakes-level class into allowance company against distance-proven #4 Eff Thirty Five. The question is whether Arkhipov's class superiority can offset Eff Thirty Five's stamina and seasoning over extended distances.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Concord Green should break on top. #7 Arkhipov drops to the back. 51268347
  2. Middle around the turn #5 Concord Green sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 51268347
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Concord Green is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 51268347

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.7%
Price horse: Eff Thirty Five (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Arkhipov S Neutral
F Prat
C C Brown
 3/1
27
★★★★☆
75.1
 Top Pick
4 Eff Thirty Five P Neutral
R Santana, Jr.
M J Maker
 7/2
16
★★★★☆
70.4
 Value Play
1 Hill Road —
M Franco
D Beckman
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
69.8
  
6 Market Timing EP Fits
D Davis
C C Brown
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
69.0
  
8 Hardspun Reason P Neutral
S Marin
H G Motion
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
65.5
 Longshot
5 Concord Green E Fits
A Fresu
C R McGaughey III
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
65.4
  
3 Il Siciliano P Neutral
J Castellano
A Sano
 6/1
7
★★★★☆
64.1
  
2 Daunt —
E J Zayas
R Ribaudo
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
62.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Arkhipov
S Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
27
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.1
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Eff Thirty Five
P Neutral
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
M J Maker
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse
1
Hill Road
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
D Beckman
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse
6
Market Timing
EP Fits
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
C C Brown
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Hardspun Reason
P Neutral
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
H G Motion
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.5
Post · Horse
5
Concord Green
E Fits
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
3
Il Siciliano
P Neutral
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
A Sano
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
2
Daunt
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
R Ribaudo
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Nobody wants the lead, so the early running order is hard to predict.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Foaled In New York State A
Purse$56,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:47 PM ET
Field Size15
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The finale is a chaotic 15-horse state-bred turf sprint where morning-line contender #3 Copper Caduceus returns from Saratoga form to face a host of inconsistent rivals including #8 No Need to Panic and #10 Midnight Blue. The race turns on whether any filly can establish clear dominance down the long Belmont stretch in a wide-open scramble.
Pace shape No Speed
E
0
EP
0
P
7
S
2

Early running order is unreliable.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up No Speed
  1. Early leaving the gate Nobody wants the lead, so #3 Copper Caduceus may end up there by default. 365118131471021214915
  2. Middle around the turn A slow pace keeps the field bunched together. 365118131471021214915
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Copper Caduceus is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 365118131471021214915

Nobody wants the lead, so the early order here is a rough guess.

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 14.5%
Price horse: No Need to Panic (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Copper Caduceus P Fits
R Santana, Jr.
T Morley
 3/1
14
★★★☆☆
56.0
 Top Pick
8 No Need to Panic P Fits
A Fresu
M Miceli
 15/1
12
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Value Play
10 Midnight Blue S Neutral
J Castellano
J S Pregman, Jr.
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
14 Daylight Dreamer P Fits
K Carmouche
J C Englehart
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
53.0
  
5 Chaumet P Fits
E J Zayas
J P Terranova II
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
50.6
  
1 Amira's Star —
S Marin
M Clement
 4/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.8
  
13 Avery's Wonderland P Fits
D Davis
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.7
 Longshot
2 Addagirl Addie —
L R Rivera, Jr.
B R Brown
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.7
  
12 Raised —
K Carmouche
M Giddings
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.6
  
7 Force of Mischief S Neutral
D A Rivera
D G Donk
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
46.2
  
6 You Know Better P Fits
D Davis
J R Abreu
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
11 Suited Connectors P Fits
M Franco
I Kantarmaci
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.0
  
4 Quell —
C Elliott
R Ribaudo
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
9 Burgundie Rose —
R Bowen
E Pringle
 50/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.8
  
15 Peggie Castle —
D A Rivera
D G Donk
 12/1
1
★★☆☆☆
34.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Copper Caduceus
P Fits
Jockey
R Santana, Jr.
Trainer
T Morley
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse Value Play
8
No Need to Panic
P Fits
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
M Miceli
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
10
Midnight Blue
S Neutral
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
J S Pregman, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
Post · Horse
14
Daylight Dreamer
P Fits
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
J C Englehart
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.0
Post · Horse
5
Chaumet
P Fits
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J P Terranova II
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.6
Post · Horse
1
Amira's Star
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
M Clement
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.8
Post · Horse Longshot
13
Avery's Wonderland
P Fits
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
2
Addagirl Addie
—
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
B R Brown
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.7
Post · Horse
12
Raised
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
M Giddings
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
7
Force of Mischief
S Neutral
Jockey
D A Rivera
Trainer
D G Donk
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
6
You Know Better
P Fits
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
J R Abreu
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
11
Suited Connectors
P Fits
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
4
Quell
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
R Ribaudo
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
9
Burgundie Rose
—
Jockey
R Bowen
Trainer
E Pringle
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.8
Post · Horse
15
Peggie Castle
—
Jockey
D A Rivera
Trainer
D G Donk
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 34.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 15-horse field.
  Go Pro