Curated Betting Card

Belmont Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 5.

2026-11-01 Race 5 Morning Card
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This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Belmont Park · full board
Strongest play
R1
Captivated #1
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Hold'em #2
15/1 ML
Deepest field
R6
16 runners
16
Pace race
R3
Wide open
Chaos
Card Overview
Race day summary
Belmont Park's 11-race program features four stakes events alongside competitive juvenile maidens and deep turf routes. Stakes action centers on Race 2 with sprint specialist Commuted, Race 8 where Donor Advised stretches out to nine furlongs, and Race 9's one-mile test headlined by Bendoog. Bettors should note multiple oversubscribed turf fields with chaotic pace profiles in the late Pick 4 and Pick 5 sequences, rewarding selective target plays over widespread horizontal tickets.
Races 11 Status Live View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time11:30 AM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
Chad Brown saddles a potent uncoupled entry in this six-horse two-turn route, sending out well-meant firster #1 Captivated alongside barnmate #5 Election Hero, who exits a promising third-place debut. The tactical question is whether #2 Hold'em can bounce back from a double-digit finish to utilize his field-best recent speed figure of 73 against Brown's regally bred debutante.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 50.6%
Price horse: Election Hero (9/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Captivated
F Prat
C C Brown
 5/2
51
★★★★☆
60.9
 Top Pick
5 Election Hero —
M Franco
C C Brown
 9/5
14
★★★☆☆
50.2
 Value Play
2 Hold'em —
J Lezcano
W I Mott
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
47.1
 Longshot
6 Live —
S Marin
T A Pletcher
 7/2
9
★★★☆☆
46.2
  
3 Horizontal Rain —
J R Velazquez
B P Walsh
 3/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
4 Sconset Bluff
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Captivated
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
51
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Election Hero
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C C Brown
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Hold'em
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
W I Mott
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.1
Post · Horse
6
Live
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
T A Pletcher
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
3
Horizontal Rain
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
4
Sconset Bluff
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $200,000
Purse$200,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time11:59 AM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Stakes purse $200,000
Storyline
Sprint form lines collide in this $200,000 stakes where #1 Commuted enters off back-to-back triple-digit speed figures of 102 and 104, but must deal with intense inside pressure from Parx shipper #3 Buccherino, who earned a blistering 106 speed figure last out. If those two duel through contested early fractions, late-running #2 Paradise Valley gets an ideal setup at an inflated price.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 31.4%
Price horse: Buccherino (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Commuted —
F Prat
L Rice
 2/1
31
★★★★☆
76.0
 Top Pick
3 Buccherino —
E Ruiz
A Velazquez
 5/2
23
★★★★☆
73.2
 Value Play
2 Paradise Valley —
S Marin
I Kantarmaci
 10/1
15
★★★★☆
69.5
 Longshot
4 Subrogate —
P Lopez
J Duarte, Jr.
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
69.2
  
6 Contrary Thinking —
M Franco
A J Green
 9/5
11
★★★★☆
67.4
  
5 Stickupwithoutagun —
C Elliott
I Kantarmaci
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
61.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Commuted
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
L Rice
31
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.0
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Buccherino
—
Jockey
E Ruiz
Trainer
A Velazquez
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.2
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Paradise Valley
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.5
Post · Horse
4
Subrogate
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
J Duarte, Jr.
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse
6
Contrary Thinking
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
A J Green
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse
5
Stickupwithoutagun
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
I Kantarmaci
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old Foaled In New York State And Approved By The New
Purse$56,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time12:28 PM ET
Field Size14
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For state-bred maiden fillies
Storyline
A sprawling 14-horse turf sprint for juvenile state-bred fillies where experienced runners like #6 Night Sky and #11 Comets Choice seek redemption after finishing unplaced over this course on October 3. With five first-time starters in the mix, early positioning out of the chute will determine whether the tested turf form holds up against untested upside.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 14.2%
Price horse: Comets Choice (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Night Sky —
E J Zayas
J Delgado
 5/1
14
★★★☆☆
51.6
 Top Pick
11 Comets Choice —
J Castellano
J P Terranova II
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
50.5
 Value Play
12 Pistolsnpearls
M Franco
G Weaver
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
50.2
 Longshot
4 Cadillac Mary —
S Marin
J C Englehart
 5/1
11
★★★☆☆
49.1
  
7 Build Or Buy —
F Prat
C C Brown
 4/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
5 Queen's Corner
J Lezcano
L Rice
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
3 Segway Pipeline
K Carmouche
R Atras
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
2 Sweet Grace —
C Elliott
J T Ryerson
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.5
  
10 Bella Musica
A Fresu
J R Abreu
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
13 Watergate —
R Maragh
R J Cash
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
41.9
  
14 Coach Callahan
S Marin
A J Green
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
41.7
  
9 Buccherita —
K Davis
P J Quick
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
41.4
  
8 Dream Spell
P Pena
M Arenas
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.4
  
1 I'm Not Kidding —
D Davis
B R Brown
 20/1
3
★★☆☆☆
38.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Night Sky
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J Delgado
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.6
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Comets Choice
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
J P Terranova II
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse Longshot
12
Pistolsnpearls
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
G Weaver
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse
4
Cadillac Mary
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
J C Englehart
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.1
Post · Horse
7
Build Or Buy
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
5
Queen's Corner
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
L Rice
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
3
Segway Pipeline
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
R Atras
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
2
Sweet Grace
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
J T Ryerson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.5
Post · Horse
10
Bella Musica
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
J R Abreu
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
Post · Horse
13
Watergate
—
Jockey
R Maragh
Trainer
R J Cash
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.9
Post · Horse
14
Coach Callahan
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
A J Green
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.7
Post · Horse
9
Buccherita
—
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
P J Quick
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.4
Post · Horse
8
Dream Spell
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
M Arenas
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.4
Post · Horse
1
I'm Not Kidding
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
B R Brown
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens allowed 2 Lbs
Purse$175,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time12:57 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
AllowanceAllowed 2 lbs. Distance: One Mile on turf
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens
Storyline
Trainer Jorge Abreu sends out #1 House of War from the rail off a fast 90 speed figure earned against tougher over this course, but he must hold off Mark Casse's consistent #7 Road Show, who has hit the board in three straight turf routes. The race turns on whether #1 House of War can work out a clean ground-saving trip without getting trapped inside.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.4%
Price horse: Howard's Hope (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 House of War —
M Franco
J R Abreu
 6/5
18
★★★☆☆
57.2
 Top Pick
2 Howard's Hope —
J Lezcano
H De Paz
 7/2
18
★★★☆☆
57.0
 Value Play
7 Road Show —
D Davis
M E Casse
 8/1
15
★★★☆☆
55.3
 Longshot
3 Soldier's Glory —
K Carmouche
J M Antonucci
 12/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.9
  
5 Miracle Morrow —
F Prat
R Brisset
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
8 Captain George —
J R Velazquez
A J Green
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
4 Epic Prayer —
J Castellano
A J Green
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
9 Cuylle —
R Silvera
R Keithan
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
6 Billy Bucchero —
E J Zayas
M E Casse
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
House of War
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
J R Abreu
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Howard's Hope
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
H De Paz
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.0
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Road Show
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M E Casse
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.3
Post · Horse
3
Soldier's Glory
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
J M Antonucci
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.9
Post · Horse
5
Miracle Morrow
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
R Brisset
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
8
Captain George
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
A J Green
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse
4
Epic Prayer
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
A J Green
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
9
Cuylle
—
Jockey
R Silvera
Trainer
R Keithan
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
6
Billy Bucchero
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
M E Casse
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:26 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maiden fillies, two years old. Distance: One
Storyline
European import #6 Dreamology makes her North American dirt debut for David Beckman after working sharply at Belmont, facing experienced maiden #8 First Site, who has placed in three consecutive starts on the NYRA circuit with figures up to 76. The critical question is whether #6 Dreamology takes to the main track against seasoned domestic juveniles.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 31.4%
Price horse: First Site (12/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Dreamology —
A Fresu
D Beckman
 6/1
31
★★★☆☆
57.9
 Top Pick
8 First Site —
P Lopez
S A Joseph, Jr.
 12/1
25
★★★☆☆
56.0
 Value Play
5 Gun Broker —
F Prat
D Gargan
 2/1
12
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
4 Flightress —
E J Zayas
C R McGaughey III
 5/2
10
★★★☆☆
48.0
  
7 Podkova
J Castellano
K Attard
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
2 Royal County Down —
J R Velazquez
B P Walsh
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.5
 Longshot
3 Claim the Throne —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 4/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
1 Rags to Roses —
R Maragh
C Baker
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
37.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Dreamology
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
D Beckman
31
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
Post · Horse Value Play
8
First Site
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
5
Gun Broker
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
D Gargan
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
4
Flightress
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.0
Post · Horse
7
Podkova
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
K Attard
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Royal County Down
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.5
Post · Horse
3
Claim the Throne
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
1
Rags to Roses
—
Jockey
R Maragh
Trainer
C Baker
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
Surfaceturf
Post Time1:55 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A full 16-horse turf sprint sees #2 Chips and Fish and #5 I Can See That renew their rivalry after finishing second and third separated by a neck over this course on October 2. The race hinges on whether #5 I Can See That can turn the tables with an extra half-furlong of closing room against Linda Rice's speedy #2 Chips and Fish.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 13.8%
Price horse: Chips and Fish (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 I Can See That —
F Prat
B N Levine
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
63.9
 Top Pick
2 Chips and Fish —
J Castellano
L Rice
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
62.3
 Value Play
9 Enzo —
G Ashton
E M Merryman
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
8 True Legend —
M Franco
G Weaver
 4/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.8
  
16 Frostelle —
A S Worrie
C J Englehart
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.8
  
7 Two Ducks —
P Lopez
C F Martin
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.7
  
14 Navy Chief —
S Marin
G Weaver
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
57.8
 Longshot
1 Leo's Reward —
K Carmouche
J Sharp
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
3 Eye On the Ball —
J Lezcano
C J Englehart
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.1
  
13 Extraordinary One —
K Davis
E D Davis
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
54.4
  
12 Out of the Fog —
E J Zayas
J M Antonucci
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.3
  
15 Lord Chatham —
R Silvera
B N Levine
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.2
  
10 Rule Sixty Two —
A Fresu
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
52.9
  
4 Hong Kong Phooey —
S Marin
R R Rodriguez
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
51.3
  
11 Until Last Call —
C Elliott
J T Ryerson
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
50.5
  
6 Shangrala Road —
D A Rivera
D G Donk
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
49.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
I Can See That
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B N Levine
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Chips and Fish
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
L Rice
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.3
Post · Horse
9
Enzo
—
Jockey
G Ashton
Trainer
E M Merryman
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
8
True Legend
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
G Weaver
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.8
Post · Horse
16
Frostelle
—
Jockey
A S Worrie
Trainer
C J Englehart
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.8
Post · Horse
7
Two Ducks
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
C F Martin
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
Post · Horse Longshot
14
Navy Chief
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
G Weaver
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse
1
Leo's Reward
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
3
Eye On the Ball
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
C J Englehart
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
Post · Horse
13
Extraordinary One
—
Jockey
K Davis
Trainer
E D Davis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.4
Post · Horse
12
Out of the Fog
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J M Antonucci
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.3
Post · Horse
15
Lord Chatham
—
Jockey
R Silvera
Trainer
B N Levine
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.2
Post · Horse
10
Rule Sixty Two
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.9
Post · Horse
4
Hong Kong Phooey
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
R R Rodriguez
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.3
Post · Horse
11
Until Last Call
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
J T Ryerson
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
6
Shangrala Road
—
Jockey
D A Rivera
Trainer
D G Donk
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two Ra
Purse$105,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:24 PM ET
Field Size14
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Chad Brown's #13 Accent brings superior class and a 99 speed figure from Saratoga into this competitive one-mile turf allowance, but must negotiate a wide post against Mark Casse's surging #14 Ori, who enters on a two-race winning streak with triple-digit figures. Both fillies must clear early traffic to avoid giving up valuable ground on the clubhouse turn.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.9%
Price horse: Ori (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
13 Accent —
M Franco
C C Brown
 5/2
17
★★★★☆
69.7
 Top Pick
14 Ori —
J Castellano
M E Casse
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
68.7
 Value Play
11 Nonconsecutivetrms —
M Franco
B P Walsh
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
65.7
  
9 Mid Summer —
P Lopez
C R McGaughey III
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
63.3
  
4 Toes —
J R Velazquez
N D Drysdale
 8/1
7
★★★★☆
62.1
 Longshot
5 Cozy Rosie —
J Alvarado
M R Matz
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
61.4
  
7 War Madam —
E J Zayas
M F Meyers
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
60.2
  
3 Two Martini's —
K Carmouche
L Rice
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
6 Thiene —
S Marin
L Rice
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
10 Three to G —
J Lezcano
D Gargan
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
12 Kokomotion —
A Fresu
D Beckman
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
59.1
  
1 Tax Holiday —
F Prat
C C Brown
 5/1
4
★★★☆☆
58.5
  
2 Omahamoiselle —
J A Gomez
B W Perkins, Jr.
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.7
  
8 So Darn Pretty —
D Davis
B T Russell
 12/1
2
★★★☆☆
51.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
13
Accent
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C C Brown
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.7
Post · Horse Value Play
14
Ori
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
M E Casse
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse
11
Nonconsecutivetrms
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
B P Walsh
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.7
Post · Horse
9
Mid Summer
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Toes
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
N D Drysdale
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
5
Cozy Rosie
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
M R Matz
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
7
War Madam
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
M F Meyers
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
Post · Horse
3
Two Martini's
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
L Rice
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
Post · Horse
6
Thiene
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
L Rice
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
10
Three to G
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
D Gargan
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
12
Kokomotion
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
D Beckman
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse
1
Tax Holiday
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
Post · Horse
2
Omahamoiselle
—
Jockey
J A Gomez
Trainer
B W Perkins, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.7
Post · Horse
8
So Darn Pretty
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
B T Russell
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $175,000
Purse$175,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/8 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:53 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For fillies and mares three years old and upward. Stakes purse $175,000
Storyline
A high-stakes nine-furlong clash where Chad Brown's #4 Donor Advised towers on recent form following a brilliant runner-up effort with a 110 speed figure at Belmont on September 25, but Brad Cox's #5 Yes It Tiz brings proven route class from Churchill Downs and Indiana with a 107 figure on her page. The outcome hinges on whether #4 Donor Advised can duplicate her peak figure over an extra half-furlong.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.0%
Price horse: Yes It Tiz (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Donor Advised —
M Franco
C C Brown
 6/5
26
★★★★☆
77.8
 Top Pick
5 Yes It Tiz —
F Prat
B H Cox
 3/1
25
★★★★☆
77.4
 Value Play
1 Snowyte —
J Alvarado
D Gargan
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
70.9
  
2 Boutwell Time —
A Fresu
J C Guerrero
 12/1
11
★★★★☆
70.2
 Longshot
3 Pink Ruby —
P Lopez
L Schultz
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
69.8
  
7 Scalable —
J R Velazquez
T A Pletcher
 5/1
9
★★★★☆
68.8
  
6 Standoutsensation —
K Carmouche
K LaRose
 12/1
8
★★★★☆
67.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Donor Advised
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C C Brown
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.8
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Yes It Tiz
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B H Cox
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.4
Post · Horse
1
Snowyte
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
D Gargan
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Boutwell Time
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
J C Guerrero
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse
3
Pink Ruby
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
L Schultz
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse
7
Scalable
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
T A Pletcher
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.8
Post · Horse
6
Standoutsensation
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
K LaRose
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $200,000
Purse$200,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:22 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Stakes purse $200
Storyline
The $200,000 one-mile stakes features a tight rematch between #2 Bendoog, who owns consecutive figures of 105 and 103, and #5 Crazy Mason, who missed by a nose over this track with a 102 figure on October 1. The tactical struggle is whether #2 Bendoog can maintain his trip advantage inside while holding off the sweeping stretch move of #5 Crazy Mason.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.8%
Price horse: Crazy Mason (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Bendoog —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
72.7
 Top Pick
5 Crazy Mason —
M Franco
G D Sacco
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
72.3
 Value Play
6 Pentathlon —
P Lopez
C R McGaughey III
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
72.2
  
8 Warp Nine —
F Pennington
H Wyner
 12/1
14
★★★★☆
71.8
 Longshot
1 East Avenue —
F Prat
B P Walsh
 5/2
14
★★★★☆
71.8
  
3 Ignite the Light —
J R Velazquez
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
69.1
  
7 Gate to Wire —
J Castellano
T A Pletcher
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
66.8
  
4 Nelson Avenue —
E J Zayas
J R Abreu
 30/1
7
★★★★☆
66.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Bendoog
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.7
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Crazy Mason
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
G D Sacco
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.3
Post · Horse
6
Pentathlon
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.2
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Warp Nine
—
Jockey
F Pennington
Trainer
H Wyner
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.8
Post · Horse
1
East Avenue
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B P Walsh
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.8
Post · Horse
3
Ignite the Light
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.1
Post · Horse
7
Gate to Wire
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
T A Pletcher
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse
4
Nelson Avenue
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J R Abreu
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10
Race Details
Class & Money
Typemaiden, claiming, or starter allowed 4 Lbs
Purse$175,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:51 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Allowanceallowed 4 lbs. Seven furlongs on turf
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming
Storyline
Chad Brown's #12 Intellect enters with triple-digit figures in three consecutive turf sprints, including a 107 when second at Belmont on October 2, but must navigate seven furlongs from post 12 against #6 Fond Farewell, who won with a 100 figure over track and trip last month. The race turns on whether #12 Intellect can avoid getting hung four-wide around the turn.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 10.9%
Price horse: Fond Farewell (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
12 Intellect —
M Franco
C C Brown
 3/1
11
★★★★☆
68.4
 Top Pick
6 Fond Farewell —
F Prat
W Walden
 5/1
9
★★★★☆
67.0
 Value Play
9 Runnin' Rocket —
S Marin
J Sharp
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
64.6
  
8 Gas Me Up —
A Fresu
K Attard
 8/1
7
★★★★☆
64.6
 Longshot
16 Mission Improbable —
E J Zayas
R Brisset
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
64.5
  
4 Capitol Hill —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 6/1
6
★★★★☆
64.1
  
3 Piper's Factor —
R Maragh
K Vassilieva
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
63.7
  
2 We're in Trouble —
J Castellano
M W McCarthy
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
63.4
  
14 Silius —
J R Velazquez
H G Motion
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
63.4
  
5 Alogon —
F Boyce
E T Allard
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
62.6
  
15 Stars and Strides —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
62.6
  
11 Rose Ruler —
D Davis
M J Maker
 20/1
5
★★★★☆
62.4
  
7 Giocoso —
J Lezcano
J K Desormeaux
 10/1
5
★★★★☆
61.8
  
13 Chasing Liberty —
K Carmouche
R Atras
 15/1
5
★★★★☆
61.4
  
10 Spiced Up —
E J Zayas
W I Mott
 20/1
4
★★★★☆
60.4
  
1 Bonus Move —
P Lopez
M A Hennig
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
12
Intellect
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
C C Brown
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Fond Farewell
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
W Walden
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse
9
Runnin' Rocket
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
J Sharp
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Gas Me Up
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
K Attard
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse
16
Mission Improbable
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
R Brisset
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
4
Capitol Hill
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
3
Piper's Factor
—
Jockey
R Maragh
Trainer
K Vassilieva
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.7
Post · Horse
2
We're in Trouble
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
M W McCarthy
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
14
Silius
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
H G Motion
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
5
Alogon
—
Jockey
F Boyce
Trainer
E T Allard
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
15
Stars and Strides
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
11
Rose Ruler
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
M J Maker
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.4
Post · Horse
7
Giocoso
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
13
Chasing Liberty
—
Jockey
K Carmouche
Trainer
R Atras
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
10
Spiced Up
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
W I Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
1
Bonus Move
—
Jockey
P Lopez
Trainer
M A Hennig
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 11
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two Ra
Purse$105,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 3/16 Miles
Surfaceturf
Post Time4:20 PM ET
Field Size12
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The card concludes with a marathon turf allowance where Linda Rice's #7 Urgency looks to build on his near-miss 96 speed figure over this course on October 7, while #4 Harrow finished just a neck back in third with a 95 figure after a troubled trip. The question is who handles the grueling 11-furlong distance best in the late stages.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 15.2%
Price horse: Harrow (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Urgency —
M Franco
L Rice
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
67.9
 Top Pick
4 Harrow —
D Davis
S A Joseph, Jr.
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
65.0
 Value Play
3 Certified Loverboy —
P Pena
F Abreu
 30/1
10
★★★★☆
64.2
 Longshot
1 Likeness —
F Prat
C R McGaughey III
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
63.9
  
9 Just for Luck —
J R Velazquez
R E Dutrow, Jr.
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
63.9
  
2 Noble Dynasty —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 7/2
9
★★★★☆
63.8
  
6 Twain —
A Fresu
M F Meyers
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
62.4
  
12 Quiet Power —
J Lezcano
C R McGaughey III
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
61.2
  
10 Guitarist —
E J Zayas
J Delgado
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
61.0
  
11 Kid Cairo —
S Marin
K Danner
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
5 Fuerteventura —
J Castellano
J Ness
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.4
  
8 Chayton —
C Elliott
J T Ryerson
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Urgency
—
Jockey
M Franco
Trainer
L Rice
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Harrow
—
Jockey
D Davis
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Certified Loverboy
—
Jockey
P Pena
Trainer
F Abreu
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
1
Likeness
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse
9
Just for Luck
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
R E Dutrow, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse
2
Noble Dynasty
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
6
Twain
—
Jockey
A Fresu
Trainer
M F Meyers
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.4
Post · Horse
12
Quiet Power
—
Jockey
J Lezcano
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse
10
Guitarist
—
Jockey
E J Zayas
Trainer
J Delgado
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
11
Kid Cairo
—
Jockey
S Marin
Trainer
K Danner
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
5
Fuerteventura
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
J Ness
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse
8
Chayton
—
Jockey
C Elliott
Trainer
J T Ryerson
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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