Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 3.

2026-09-11 Race 3 Morning Card
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Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R3
Sargent Bilko #4
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Shan #2
10/1 ML
Deepest field
R2
9 runners
9
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs opens the September stand with a competitive trio of dirt sprints that reward aggressive pace analysis and tactical positioning. Speed looks vulnerable in the opener with multiple frontrunners vying for position at six furlongs, setting up an opportunity for mid-pack stalkers. The maiden claiming ranks in Race 2 offer a clear class edge for King Crusher, while the allowance/optional claimer in Race 3 features short-priced form that must hold off proven Churchill course winners.
Races 3 Status Completed View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeCLAIMING
Purse$78,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:45 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Six experienced dirt sprinters meet at six furlongs, but the race centers on whether #3 Tarantino can recapture his winning Churchill Downs form from June, when he earned a 96 speed figure, or if a contested duel with #4 Barksdale softens him up for a late runner like #1 Mitty's Griddy.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 19.4%
Price horse: Mitty's Griddy (4/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Tarantino
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 7/5
19
★★★★☆
67.3
 Top Pick
1 Mitty's Griddy
A Concepcion
K G Miller
 4/1
18
★★★★☆
66.0
 Value Play
4 Barksdale
A Beschizza
M A Shirer
 5/2
17
★★★★☆
65.6
  
2 Shan
G Corrales
G Garcia
 10/1
17
★★★★☆
65.1
 Longshot
6 Tom Cat Tuesday
E Morales
G Garcia
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
64.1
  
5 Accretive
C A Torres
T V Duncan
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
61.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Tarantino
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Mitty's Griddy
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
K G Miller
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.0
Post · Horse
4
Barksdale
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
M A Shirer
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Shan
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
G Garcia
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.1
Post · Horse
6
Tom Cat Tuesday
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G Garcia
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
5
Accretive
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
T V Duncan
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN CLAIMING
Purse$67,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:14 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A field of nine maiden claimers squares off at six furlongs, where #9 King Crusher holds an experience and figure advantage off two consecutive runner-up efforts, but faces pressure from first-time starter #7 Shaved Ice under Jose Ortiz.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.8%
Price horse: Shaved Ice (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 King Crusher
F Arrieta
E N Foster
 4/1
22
★★★☆☆
56.6
 Top Pick
7 Shaved Ice
J L Ortiz
W M Catalano
 5/1
12
★★★☆☆
48.2
 Value Play
1 Zimomo
A Beschizza
K Danner
 15/1
12
★★★☆☆
47.8
 Longshot
3 Joe Joe Dude
A Concepcion
S R Radosevich
 15/1
12
★★★☆☆
47.5
  
5 Trixie Barry
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 3/1
10
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
6 Don't Kick Me
L Saez
P Eurton
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
2 Cantkeepagoodmndwn
G Corrales
D L Romans
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
41.4
  
4 High Status
A Espinoza
R C Bryner
 10/1
7
★★☆☆☆
39.7
  
8 Chasing Em
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 7/2
7
★★☆☆☆
39.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
King Crusher
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E N Foster
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Shaved Ice
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
W M Catalano
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Zimomo
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
K Danner
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
Post · Horse
3
Joe Joe Dude
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
S R Radosevich
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.5
Post · Horse
5
Trixie Barry
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
6
Don't Kick Me
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
P Eurton
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
2
Cantkeepagoodmndwn
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.4
Post · Horse
4
High Status
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
R C Bryner
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.7
Post · Horse
8
Chasing Em
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming, Or Starter Allowed
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:43 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Eddie Kenneally's #4 Sargent Bilko looks to rebound from an off-the-board try at Ellis Park, but he will need to withstand an early speed duel from Gulfstream shipper #3 Never a Doubt to secure his second Churchill victory of the season.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 27.3%
Price horse: Never a Doubt (9/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Sargent Bilko
J L Ortiz
E Kenneally
 7/5
27
★★★★☆
64.6
 Top Pick
3 Never a Doubt
L Saez
C A David
 9/5
22
★★★★☆
61.2
 Value Play
1 Title Worthy
G Corrales
D Stewart
 7/2
18
★★★☆☆
58.2
  
6 Issachar
W Antongeorgi III
T D Vance
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
52.9
  
2 Red Sun
F Arrieta
H Holsapple
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
51.4
 Longshot
5 Fortune King
G Saez
S Donjuan
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
48.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Sargent Bilko
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
E Kenneally
27
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Never a Doubt
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C A David
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse
1
Title Worthy
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D Stewart
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
6
Issachar
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
T D Vance
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.9
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Red Sun
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
H Holsapple
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
5
Fortune King
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
S Donjuan
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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