Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

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2026-09-12 Morning Card
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Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R1
Excel Calculator #1
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Dr. Storm #6
8/1 ML
Deepest field
R3
13 runners
13
Pace race
R1
Wide open
Chaos
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents an ultra-competitive three-race sequence kicking off with two wide-open turf marathons sandwiching a competitive juvenile filly maiden sprint. Value seekers will find attractive odds across all three races, as no individual runner holds an overwhelming speed-figure edge. Defensive wagering is recommended throughout, prioritizing selective win wagers and tightly configured exactas while bypassing deep trifecta pools.
Races 3 Status Completed View Morning
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Card 1 2 3

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTARTER ALLOWANCE
Purse$60,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/8 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time12:45 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The mile-and-an-eighth turf starter allowance revolves around whether #1 Excel Calculator can leverage the rail draw to save ground and reproduce his strong 92 speed figure earned over this course in June, or if late-running #8 Unload can reel him in after contesting stronger company at Saratoga.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.2%
Price horse: Fountain Run (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Excel Calculator
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 4/1
15
★★★★☆
71.3
 Top Pick
2 Fountain Run
D Sheehy
A M Meah
 5/2
13
★★★★☆
69.3
 Value Play
8 Unload
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
68.2
  
3 Military Road
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
67.8
  
6 Dr. Storm
W A Rodriguez
I Bahena
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
67.1
 Longshot
7 North Ship
T Gaffalione
S A Joseph, Jr.
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
64.9
  
4 Uncle Evco
L Saez
M A Shirer
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
64.6
  
5 Saltwater Cowboy
J A Torres
C A David
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
64.1
  
9 Magic Grant
G Saez
J B Roberts
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
58.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Excel Calculator
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.3
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Fountain Run
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
A M Meah
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.3
Post · Horse
8
Unload
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.2
Post · Horse
3
Military Road
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Dr. Storm
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
I Bahena
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.1
Post · Horse
7
North Ship
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.9
Post · Horse
4
Uncle Evco
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M A Shirer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse
5
Saltwater Cowboy
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C A David
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
9
Magic Grant
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
J B Roberts
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:16 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Trainer Bob Baffert sends out #5 Kaykay following an 85 speed figure runner-up performance at Ellis Park, but she must prove she can finish off six and a half furlongs while dealing with early heat from #4 Magic Woman.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.0%
Price horse: Magic Woman (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Kaykay
F Prat
B Baffert
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
64.8
 Top Pick
4 Magic Woman
J Rosario
R Medina
 12/1
12
★★★★☆
60.4
 Value Play
2 Love Divine
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.5
 Longshot
3 R Kendl
A Concepcion
J C Wainwright
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
7 Determined Ace
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
10 Army's Marauder
L Saez
C Davis
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
55.7
  
12 Sassy One
C A Torres
W I Mott
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
55.0
  
9 Lunar Loop
M Gutierrez
R Hiles
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
54.1
  
6 Permutation
T Gaffalione
C C Brown
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.4
  
11 Cocoa Bean
W A Rodriguez
A Decker
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
1 Draw
J A Torres
R Mott
 4/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.4
  
8 Ever After
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Kaykay
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B Baffert
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Magic Woman
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
R Medina
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Love Divine
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
3
R Kendl
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J C Wainwright
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
7
Determined Ace
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
10
Army's Marauder
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
12
Sassy One
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
W I Mott
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
Post · Horse
9
Lunar Loop
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
R Hiles
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
Post · Horse
6
Permutation
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
C C Brown
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
11
Cocoa Bean
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
A Decker
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
1
Draw
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.4
Post · Horse
8
Ever After
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN CLAIMING
Purse$67,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/8 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:46 PM ET
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A sprawling field of 13 turf maidens leaves #13 Union Rose tasked with overcoming the extreme outside post to validate his field-best 55.5 composite rating against the ground-saving trip of #5 Risky Wave.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 10.7%
Price horse: Risky Wave (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
13 Union Rose
E Esquivel
W D Cowans
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.5
 Top Pick
5 Risky Wave
V R Carrasco
G R Arnold II
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Value Play
10 Don's Joy
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
54.1
 Longshot
3 Lightning Run
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 5/1
9
★★★☆☆
53.5
  
2 Tammy's Kiss
M Gutierrez
P A Bauer
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
52.8
  
9 Patron Silver
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 7/2
9
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
7 Summer Date
J Rosario
R Medina
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
52.1
  
6 Red Rainbow
W Antongeorgi III
T S Wismer
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
8 Pampered
A Concepcion
A McKeever
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
1 Speightsy Rival
J Loveberry
L Pierce
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.1
  
11 Twas the Law
D Sheehy
M R Thompson
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.9
  
12 Modern Escape
C E Franca
T Moreno
 50/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.3
  
4 Maxies Bubble Gum
F Arrieta
E N Foster
 50/1
3
★★☆☆☆
35.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
13
Union Rose
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
W D Cowans
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Risky Wave
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
G R Arnold II
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse Longshot
10
Don's Joy
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
Post · Horse
3
Lightning Run
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.5
Post · Horse
2
Tammy's Kiss
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P A Bauer
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.8
Post · Horse
9
Patron Silver
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
7
Summer Date
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
R Medina
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.1
Post · Horse
6
Red Rainbow
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
T S Wismer
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
8
Pampered
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A McKeever
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
1
Speightsy Rival
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
L Pierce
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.1
Post · Horse
11
Twas the Law
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M R Thompson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
12
Modern Escape
Jockey
C E Franca
Trainer
T Moreno
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.3
Post · Horse
4
Maxies Bubble Gum
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E N Foster
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
  Go Pro