Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 4.

2026-09-18 Race 4 Morning Card
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Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R3
Birch Run #2
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Chamita #6
15/1 ML
Deepest field
R1
14 runners
14
Pace shape
R3
Lone Speed
#5 Watershed Moment
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents a competitive 10-race program headlined by full juvenile maiden fields and contentious claiming events across both dirt and turf. The card offers prime value opportunities in Races 2, 3, and 6, where proven class droppers and sharp local workout lines clash with vulnerable morning-line favorites. Formful turf routes and competitive sprint allowances later in the afternoon demand selective wagering, leaning into precise exacta structures where pace dynamics expose underlaid chalk.
Races 10 Status Completed View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:45 PM ET
Field Size14
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A sprawling 14-horse field of juvenile fillies creates immediate tension as experienced starter #3 Speech and Drama brings three local dirt starts into play against well-regarded debutante #2 Callie's Dance. The race hinges on whether #3 Speech and Drama can improve on her recent speed figure of 54 or if fresh speed from the inside stalls will overwhelm the experienced runners.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 14.3%
Price horse: Speech and Drama (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Callie's Dance S —
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 7/2
14
★★★☆☆
57.5
 Top Pick
3 Speech and Drama S —
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 9/2
9
★★★☆☆
51.1
 Value Play
10 Capodost —
T Gaffalione
B H Cox
 5/2
9
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
6 Chamita EP —
S Pauly
R Hernandez
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
48.4
 Longshot
4 Dream About —
J Elliott
A M Stall, Jr.
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
46.8
  
12 Puzzled —
G Saez
W B Calhoun
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
46.2
  
13 Dice Shot —
J A Torres
W Walden
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.5
  
11 Oro Estrella —
L Hoskins
W B Calhoun
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
5 Back Back Back —
W A Rodriguez
L Rivelli
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
9 Joking Around E —
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
14 J Z's Not Again EP —
D Grisales Rave
G Esquivel
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
8 Phil E Fayebaby —
Y Hazlewood
E N Foster
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
7 Stirrup —
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
1 Belladore —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Callie's Dance
S —
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Speech and Drama
S —
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.1
Post · Horse
10
Capodost
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B H Cox
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Chamita
EP —
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
R Hernandez
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse
4
Dream About
—
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
12
Puzzled
—
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
W B Calhoun
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
13
Dice Shot
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W Walden
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.5
Post · Horse
11
Oro Estrella
—
Jockey
L Hoskins
Trainer
W B Calhoun
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
5
Back Back Back
—
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
L Rivelli
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
9
Joking Around
E —
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
14
J Z's Not Again
EP —
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
G Esquivel
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
8
Phil E Fayebaby
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
E N Foster
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
Post · Horse
7
Stirrup
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
Post · Horse
1
Belladore
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $12,500 Or Less In 2025 - 2026
Purse$60,000
Claiming$12,500
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:14 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Heavy favorite #1 Coquito enters off a gate-to-wire Colonial Downs win with a sharp speed figure of 90, but faces a stern stamina test around two turns against #4 Gypsan, who won over this Churchill oval in May with an 85 speed figure. The pivotal question is whether #1 Coquito faces early badgering from outside pace rivals that leaves him vulnerable in the final furlong.
Today's shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
0
P
1
S
1

Fast Pace · E: 5 EP: 0 P: 1 S: 1 · #1 Coquito, #4 Gypsan, #6 Argan

Three or more early runners; expect a meltdown. Early: #1 Coquito, #4 Gypsan, #6 Argan.

From comments+notes · 7/8 styled · display only

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 21.9%
Price horse: Gypsan (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Coquito E Misfit
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 3/5
22
★★★★☆
75.5
 Top Pick
4 Gypsan E Misfit
B Curtis
A Shorter
 15/1
15
★★★★☆
70.0
 Value Play
6 Argan E Misfit
G Saez
J M Camejo
 9/2
13
★★★★☆
67.9
  
3 Cora's Legacy P Fits
V R Carrasco
L Moreno-Barban
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
66.7
  
2 Stay Beautiful E Misfit
S Pauly
Y R Orantes
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
65.0
 Longshot
5 Evalina E Misfit
K J Jimenez
S Guerrero
 30/1
10
★★★★☆
63.4
  
8 Acousticat S Fits
A Beschizza
J B Roberts
 15/1
9
★★★★☆
62.7
  
7 Little Dixie —
G Corrales
T Moreno
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Coquito
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.5
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Gypsan
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse
6
Argan
E Misfit
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
J M Camejo
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse
3
Cora's Legacy
P Fits
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
L Moreno-Barban
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Stay Beautiful
E Misfit
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
Y R Orantes
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
5
Evalina
E Misfit
Jockey
K J Jimenez
Trainer
S Guerrero
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
8
Acousticat
S Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J B Roberts
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
7
Little Dixie
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
T Moreno
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$57,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:43 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A compact field of seven maiden routers centers on #2 Birch Run, who recorded a bullet four-furlong drill in 47.20 on September 11, facing #6 Lexico, who exits a game runner-up effort with a 77 speed figure at Ellis Park. The race turns on whether #2 Birch Run can ration her speed effectively stretched out to a route or if #6 Lexico's proven late run will run her down.
Today's shape Lone Speed
E
1
EP
0
P
3
S
1

Lone Speed · E: 1 EP: 0 P: 3 S: 1 · #5 Watershed Moment

One early runner and nobody to press it. Early: #5 Watershed Moment.

From comments+notes · 5/7 styled · display only

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 22.2%
Price horse: Lexico (5/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Birch Run S Misfit
J L Ortiz
P J McGee
 8/5
22
★★★★☆
61.9
 Top Pick
6 Lexico —
R Bejarano
D J Habeeb
 5/2
17
★★★☆☆
58.1
 Value Play
3 Depencier P Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
W B Calhoun
 12/1
17
★★★☆☆
57.9
 Longshot
5 Watershed Moment E Fits
C A Torres
R Medina
 6/1
14
★★★☆☆
55.4
  
4 Twisted Viper P Neutral
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
51.4
  
1 Main Mischief —
Y Hazlewood
M W McCarthy
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
7 Rotisserie P Neutral
D Sheehy
M E Lauer
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Birch Run
S Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
P J McGee
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Lexico
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D J Habeeb
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Depencier
P Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
W B Calhoun
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
Post · Horse
5
Watershed Moment
E Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Medina
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse
4
Twisted Viper
P Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
1
Main Mischief
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
M W McCarthy
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse
7
Rotisserie
P Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M E Lauer
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:13 PM ET
Field Size14
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A full lineup of 14 juvenile turf fillies presents major uncertainty as #11 Goose Quill ships in from a Kentucky Downs run with a 72 speed figure to clash with debutante #12 Camphor. The central handicap revolves around whether #11 Goose Quill can navigate a tricky outside post around two turns or if well-bred firsters have enough stamina to score on debut.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 10.6%
Price horse: Goose Quill (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
12 Camphor
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 9/2
11
★★★☆☆
53.5
 Top Pick
11 Goose Quill —
L Saez
M E Casse
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
52.0
 Value Play
3 Less Talking —
J L Ortiz
C C Brown
 3/1
9
★★★☆☆
51.4
  
5 Cyber Gal —
J A Torres
R Mott
 5/2
9
★★★☆☆
51.3
  
1 Lady Carmen E —
E Morales
M Douaihy
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.3
 Longshot
13 Placing Blame —
L Saez
C Davis
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
6 Cruising Again P —
G Corrales
D L Romans
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
4 Mood Spin —
M Garcia
N W Casse
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
2 Notgonnacatchher —
V R Carrasco
B A Lynch
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.9
  
10 Make It Skate —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.6
  
9 Novo Mesto —
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
8 Speedbird —
C A Torres
G R Arnold II
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
7 Kiplin —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
42.8
  
14 Lexi's Epic Ride —
L Machado
D K Von Hemel
 30/1
4
★★☆☆☆
37.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
12
Camphor
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.5
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Goose Quill
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M E Casse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.0
Post · Horse
3
Less Talking
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C C Brown
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
5
Cyber Gal
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.3
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Lady Carmen
E —
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
M Douaihy
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.3
Post · Horse
13
Placing Blame
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
6
Cruising Again
P —
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
4
Mood Spin
—
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
N W Casse
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
2
Notgonnacatchher
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
B A Lynch
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
10
Make It Skate
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.6
Post · Horse
9
Novo Mesto
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
8
Speedbird
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
G R Arnold II
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
7
Kiplin
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.8
Post · Horse
14
Lexi's Epic Ride
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$58,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:45 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Dropping into a $20,000 tag, #7 Our Shenanigan holds a distinct speed edge off an 87 figure at Kentucky Downs, but faces genuine dirt routers in #4 Keen Gal and #3 Final Shipman. The outcome hinges on whether #7 Our Shenanigan can translate recent turf and synthetic speed back to Churchill dirt against battle-tested rivals.
Today's shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
4
S
1

Duel · E: 2 EP: 2 P: 4 S: 1 · #5 Country Club, #6 Honor Azteca

Two early runners likely to hook up; pressers and closers benefit. Early: #5 Country Club, #6 Honor Azteca.

From comments · 9/9 styled · display only

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.7%
Price horse: Keen Gal (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Our Shenanigan P Fits
B Curtis
J Sharp
 2/1
16
★★★★☆
66.7
 Top Pick
4 Keen Gal S Fits
J Aranguren
E Rodriguez
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
64.2
 Value Play
3 Final Shipman P Fits
E Morales
J Blair
 3/1
12
★★★★☆
63.0
  
5 Country Club E Misfit
A Achard
M A Howard
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
60.7
  
2 Wildest Problem EP Neutral
G Saez
J B Roberts
 30/1
10
★★★★☆
60.4
  
8 Wild Acclaim P Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
60.3
 Longshot
1 Zafyre P Fits
W A Rodriguez
J Antonuik
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
6 Honor Azteca E Misfit
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 5/1
9
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
9 Barbratina EP Neutral
D Sheehy
S M Asmussen
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Our Shenanigan
P Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
J Sharp
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Keen Gal
S Fits
Jockey
J Aranguren
Trainer
E Rodriguez
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
3
Final Shipman
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Blair
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
5
Country Club
E Misfit
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
M A Howard
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.7
Post · Horse
2
Wildest Problem
EP Neutral
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
J B Roberts
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Wild Acclaim
P Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
1
Zafyre
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
J Antonuik
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
6
Honor Azteca
E Misfit
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse
9
Barbratina
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
S M Asmussen
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less Or Which Have Broken Their Maiden In A Maiden
Purse$83,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:18 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Seven furlongs sets up a tactical clash between #4 Carol's Melody, who won at Churchill this summer with an 88 speed figure, and #6 Ships Inn, coming off an 88 speed figure victory at Indiana. The race comes down to who handles the elongated sprint distance better as the pacesetters duel into the stretch.
Today's shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
1
S
2

Duel · E: 2 EP: 3 P: 1 S: 2 · #6 Ships Inn, #5 In for a Spin

Two early runners likely to hook up; pressers and closers benefit. Early: #6 Ships Inn, #5 In for a Spin.

From comments+notes · 8/8 styled · display only

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 16.0%
Price horse: Ships Inn (9/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Carol's Melody EP Neutral
D Sheehy
E Kenneally
 9/2
16
★★★★☆
62.8
 Top Pick
6 Ships Inn E Misfit
L Saez
G D Foley
 9/5
14
★★★★☆
61.0
 Value Play
7 Miss Elle P Fits
T Gaffalione
R Medina
 4/1
14
★★★★☆
60.5
  
8 Mighty Nora S Fits
C A Torres
D Stewart
 3/1
13
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
1 Late to the Game EP Neutral
A Cedillo
R Medina
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
5 In for a Spin E Misfit
V R Carrasco
C Caramori
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.2
  
3 Full Dolly S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
T Drury, Jr.
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.2
 Longshot
2 Belle of the Barn EP Neutral
J A Torres
C Caramori
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Carol's Melody
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
E Kenneally
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Ships Inn
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G D Foley
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
7
Miss Elle
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
R Medina
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
8
Mighty Nora
S Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse
1
Late to the Game
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Medina
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
5
In for a Spin
E Misfit
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
C Caramori
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Full Dolly
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse
2
Belle of the Barn
EP Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Caramori
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$92,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:50 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
An 11-horse juvenile dirt sprint pits experienced runner #8 Tapit Nitro against well-schooled firsters from the Brad Cox and Joe Sharp barns. The race turns on whether #8 Tapit Nitro's race experience can hold off well-meant debutantes #4 R Last Word and #11 Soccer Socks.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 12.7%
Price horse: R Last Word (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Tapit Nitro —
L Saez
R G Crichton
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
48.8
 Top Pick
4 R Last Word —
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
46.1
 Value Play
11 Soccer Socks —
T Gaffalione
B H Cox
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
45.9
  
6 Racheli
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
2 Motivated by Grace —
B Curtis
J Sharp
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
3 Anna Bo Banna —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 3/1
9
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
1 Cover Story —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
43.2
 Longshot
10 Waawaatesi —
J Loveberry
L Pierce
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
5 Silk Street
V R Carrasco
S E Shaffer
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
40.6
  
7 A Sip of Vino
E Morales
G Garcia
 20/1
7
★★☆☆☆
39.6
  
9 Baby Chantal
L Fuenmayor
C Munoz
 15/1
6
★★☆☆☆
38.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Tapit Nitro
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
R G Crichton
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
R Last Word
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
11
Soccer Socks
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B H Cox
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
6
Racheli
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
2
Motivated by Grace
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
3
Anna Bo Banna
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Cover Story
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
10
Waawaatesi
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
L Pierce
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
5
Silk Street
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
S E Shaffer
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.6
Post · Horse
7
A Sip of Vino
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G Garcia
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.6
Post · Horse
9
Baby Chantal
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Munoz
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$86,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:22 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A contentious 11-horse turf route features #6 Battle Call, who posted consecutive 90 and 96 speed figures at Colonial Downs, tackling deep closers like #2 War Officer. The race hinges on whether #6 Battle Call can clear easily into the first turn or if pressure from #10 Sugoi compromises his stamina late.
Today's shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
3
S
2

Fast Pace · E: 4 EP: 1 P: 3 S: 2 · #6 Battle Call, #11 Franz Josef, #8 Friar Newton

Three or more early runners; expect a meltdown. Early: #6 Battle Call, #11 Franz Josef, #8 Friar Newton.

From comments · 10/11 styled · display only

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 15.6%
Price horse: War Officer (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Battle Call E Misfit
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 2/1
16
★★★★☆
76.3
 Top Pick
2 War Officer S Fits
T Gaffalione
S A Joseph, Jr.
 7/2
12
★★★★☆
72.0
 Value Play
11 Franz Josef E Misfit
W Antongeorgi III
T S Wismer
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
70.4
  
3 Charge for Gold —
Y Hazlewood
M W McCarthy
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
70.2
  
1 Overstatement P Fits
A Burgos
K G Miller
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
68.6
 Longshot
8 Friar Newton E Misfit
L Machado
P H Lobo
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
67.7
  
10 Sugoi P Fits
W A Rodriguez
I Bahena
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
66.7
  
4 Baltimore Heart EP Neutral
E Esquivel
B Williamson
 9/2
8
★★★★☆
66.3
  
7 Lucky Mischief S Fits
M Gutierrez
R Hiles
 6/1
7
★★★★☆
65.0
  
5 Big to Do P Fits
W Antongeorgi III
T S Wismer
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
61.3
  
9 Debt Paid E Misfit
D Sheehy
M Lovell
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Battle Call
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.3
Post · Horse Value Play
2
War Officer
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.0
Post · Horse
11
Franz Josef
E Misfit
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
T S Wismer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse
3
Charge for Gold
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
M W McCarthy
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Overstatement
P Fits
Jockey
A Burgos
Trainer
K G Miller
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.6
Post · Horse
8
Friar Newton
E Misfit
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
P H Lobo
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.7
Post · Horse
10
Sugoi
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
I Bahena
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse
4
Baltimore Heart
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
B Williamson
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse
7
Lucky Mischief
S Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
R Hiles
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
5
Big to Do
P Fits
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
T S Wismer
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse
9
Debt Paid
E Misfit
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M Lovell
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$134,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:54 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed meets stamina in this six-furlong allowance sprint where #1 Doroteo breaks from the rail off a 97 speed figure at Monmouth, confronting #7 Camp Hale, who just ran second with a 95 speed figure at Ellis Park. The critical point is whether #1 Doroteo can hold the rail against outside pace pressure without getting pinned in along the fence.
Today's shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
2
P
0
S
1

Fast Pace · E: 3 EP: 2 P: 0 S: 1 · #7 Camp Hale, #2 Jefferson Street, #3 Ship Ship Hooray

Three or more early runners; expect a meltdown. Early: #7 Camp Hale, #2 Jefferson Street, #3 Ship Ship Hooray.

From comments+notes · 6/8 styled · display only

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 14.4%
Price horse: Camp Hale (7/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Doroteo S Fits
J L Ortiz
M J Maker
 7/2
14
★★★★☆
68.9
 Top Pick
7 Camp Hale E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 7/5
14
★★★★☆
68.9
 Value Play
2 Jefferson Street E Misfit
L Saez
W I Mott
 4/1
14
★★★★☆
68.5
  
6 Beach Colt EP Neutral
H I Berrios
A M Sanchez
 20/1
13
★★★★☆
67.2
  
8 Market Street —
C A Torres
A Shorter
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
65.9
 Longshot
3 Ship Ship Hooray E Misfit
V R Carrasco
S E Shaffer
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
65.4
  
5 Tap Me a Song —
G Saez
C Santamaria
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
64.6
  
4 Vamos Carlitos EP Neutral
E Morales
G D Foley
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
63.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Doroteo
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M J Maker
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.9
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Camp Hale
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.9
Post · Horse
2
Jefferson Street
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
W I Mott
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
6
Beach Colt
EP Neutral
Jockey
H I Berrios
Trainer
A M Sanchez
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.2
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Market Street
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
A Shorter
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.9
Post · Horse
3
Ship Ship Hooray
E Misfit
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
S E Shaffer
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
5
Tap Me a Song
—
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
C Santamaria
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse
4
Vamos Carlitos
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$67,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:25 PM ET
Field Size14
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The finale at seven furlongs features #10 Rockin Robin, who brings stakes-caliber spring form including an 82 speed figure at Keeneland, facing #1 Crawford who drew ideally on the rail. The question is whether #10 Rockin Robin can overcome an outside draw off a four-month layoff or if fit rivals run past her in the final sixteenth.
Today's shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
2
S
0

Fast Pace · E: 4 EP: 1 P: 2 S: 0 · #10 Rockin Robin, #5 Quality View, #9 Winning Matters

Three or more early runners; expect a meltdown. Early: #10 Rockin Robin, #5 Quality View, #9 Winning Matters.

From comments+notes · 7/14 styled · display only

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 17.0%
Price horse: Crawford (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Rockin Robin E Misfit
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 8/5
17
★★★★☆
63.7
 Top Pick
1 Crawford —
B Curtis
A Delacour
 5/1
12
★★★☆☆
58.1
 Value Play
6 Fozzer —
D Machado
W D Cowans
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.0
  
5 Quality View E Misfit
L Saez
C Davis
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
54.2
 Longshot
9 Winning Matters E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 7/2
8
★★★☆☆
52.8
  
7 Kopiana E Misfit
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
12 Astronova P Fits
A Beschizza
G D Foley
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.8
  
4 Buckeye Favorite P Fits
W A Rodriguez
R Medina
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
11 Serafina Vietti —
Y Hazlewood
S D Dunn
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.3
  
8 Cherry Springs —
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
2 Wado Wave EP Neutral
C A Torres
J Dimmett
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.4
  
14 Donna Strada —
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.4
  
13 Alabama Getaway —
M Garcia
D L Romans
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
40.5
  
3 Broadway Betty
E Morales
T Humphries
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
36.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Rockin Robin
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.7
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Crawford
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Delacour
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse
6
Fozzer
—
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
W D Cowans
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.0
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Quality View
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse
9
Winning Matters
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.8
Post · Horse
7
Kopiana
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
12
Astronova
P Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
G D Foley
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.8
Post · Horse
4
Buckeye Favorite
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
R Medina
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
11
Serafina Vietti
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
S D Dunn
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.3
Post · Horse
8
Cherry Springs
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
2
Wado Wave
EP Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
J Dimmett
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.4
Post · Horse
14
Donna Strada
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.4
Post · Horse
13
Alabama Getaway
—
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
D L Romans
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.5
Post · Horse
3
Broadway Betty
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
T Humphries
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 36.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
  Go Pro