Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 5.

2026-09-19 Race 5 Morning Card
You're viewing the Morning Card
This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R10
Consequent #3
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Merry An #8
15/1 ML
Deepest field
R11
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R6
Duel
2 E / 2 EP
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents an 11-race card highlighted by two $300,000 stakes contests at seven furlongs in Races 6 and 8. Short fields in the featured stakes pit proven graded-caliber performers against sharp, improving challengers, offering legitimate exacta key opportunities. The surrounding turf routes and large-field juvenile dirt sprints require discipline, with several races offering value among mid-priced runners drawn well around one or two turns.
Races 11 Status Completed View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time6:00 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The opening turf route hinges on whether #2 She's On a Roll can duplicate her strong summer form under Cristian Torres, or if inside-drawn #1 Roiling can turn a ground-saving stalking trip into an elusive maiden victory.
Today's shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
2
P
2
S
0

Honest Pace · E: 0 EP: 2 P: 2 S: 0

Enough pressure for a fair pace; no style is handed the race.

From comments · 4/8 styled · display only

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.1%
Price horse: Roiling (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 She's On a Roll EP Fits
C A Torres
S E Shaffer
 7/2
21
★★★★☆
61.4
 Top Pick
1 Roiling EP Fits
L Machado
D Miller
 4/1
18
★★★☆☆
58.9
 Value Play
4 Altadena P Neutral
W Antongeorgi III
D F O'Neill
 4/1
14
★★★☆☆
55.6
  
7 Butterfly Jasmine P Neutral
V R Carrasco
W M Catalano
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
6 Social Scene —
A Concepcion
W Walden
 5/2
10
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
8 Merry An —
R Bejarano
W N Howard
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.9
 Longshot
3 Kastria —
J A Torres
E Lopez
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
5 The Look —
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
She's On a Roll
EP Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
S E Shaffer
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Roiling
EP Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D Miller
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
Post · Horse
4
Altadena
P Neutral
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
D F O'Neill
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.6
Post · Horse
7
Butterfly Jasmine
P Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
W M Catalano
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
6
Social Scene
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W Walden
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Merry An
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
W N Howard
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
3
Kastria
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
E Lopez
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
5
The Look
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time6:28 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A field of 10 juvenile colts lines up at 6 1/2 furlongs where Saratoga shipper #10 Vukota brings the lone competitive race experience against well-bred first-time starters from top barns.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 13.8%
Price horse: Frozenknife (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Vukota —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 4/1
14
★★★☆☆
49.1
 Top Pick
3 Frozenknife —
M Gutierrez
B H Cox
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
45.9
 Value Play
9 Lutkenhaus —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
7 Reinforcement —
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
6 Midnight Rumble —
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
44.4
  
2 Shacklebolt
W A Rodriguez
E G Harty
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
8 Ritornello —
G Saez
M Williams
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
42.3
  
5 Industrious —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 9/2
9
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
1 Koivun —
J A Torres
C DeVaux
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
41.8
 Longshot
4 Steve Wood —
M Garcia
D K Von Hemel
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Vukota
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.1
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Frozenknife
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B H Cox
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
9
Lutkenhaus
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
7
Reinforcement
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
6
Midnight Rumble
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.4
Post · Horse
2
Shacklebolt
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
E G Harty
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
8
Ritornello
—
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
M Williams
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.3
Post · Horse
5
Industrious
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Koivun
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C DeVaux
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
Post · Horse
4
Steve Wood
—
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$57,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time6:56 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Ken McPeek trainee #4 Juneau holds the top figure in the race from Saratoga, but she must prove she can seal the deal against experienced speedster #2 Princess Chanty and a crop of unexposed debutantes.
Today's shape Favors Front
E
0
EP
1
P
4
S
0

Favors Front · E: 0 EP: 1 P: 4 S: 0 · no true E; the lone presser inherits the lead

Light early pressure; the front end should get its way.

no true E; the lone presser inherits the lead

From comments · 5/12 styled · display only

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 15.0%
Price horse: Princess Chanty (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Juneau P Neutral
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 7/2
15
★★★☆☆
55.1
 Top Pick
2 Princess Chanty P Neutral
L Fuenmayor
C Munoz
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.8
 Value Play
10 Countthetrue P Neutral
E Morales
W M Catalano
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.0
  
1 Dice Shot
J A Torres
W Walden
 9/2
10
★★★☆☆
48.4
  
8 Dance Like This
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 5/1
9
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
9 Molly McIver P Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.3
  
3 Ginger Money —
J Loveberry
G T Forster
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
11 Lily Isabella EP Fits
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.3
  
12 Lady Biz —
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.3
  
5 Luna Toscana —
R Mitchell
R G Crichton
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
42.1
  
7 Ardennes —
A Jimenez
M Kordenbrock
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
6 Shays Gray —
W A Rodriguez
C Davis
 12/1
5
★★☆☆☆
38.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Juneau
P Neutral
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.1
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Princess Chanty
P Neutral
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Munoz
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse
10
Countthetrue
P Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
W M Catalano
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.0
Post · Horse
1
Dice Shot
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W Walden
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse
8
Dance Like This
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
9
Molly McIver
P Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.3
Post · Horse
3
Ginger Money
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
G T Forster
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
11
Lily Isabella
EP Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.3
Post · Horse
12
Lady Biz
—
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.3
Post · Horse
5
Luna Toscana
—
Jockey
R Mitchell
Trainer
R G Crichton
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.1
Post · Horse
7
Ardennes
—
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
M Kordenbrock
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
6
Shays Gray
—
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
C Davis
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $16,000
Purse$36,000
Claiming$16,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time7:26 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Phil D'Amato ships in #7 Only After Midnite for a $16,000 tag, but she faces an honest local rival in #2 Firebird Suite and improving route winner #3 Voluntold.
Today's shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
3
P
2
S
2

Honest Pace · E: 1 EP: 3 P: 2 S: 2

Enough pressure for a fair pace; no style is handed the race.

From comments+notes · 8/8 styled · display only

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.9%
Price horse: Firebird Suite (2/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Only After Midnite P Neutral
F Arrieta
P D'Amato
 9/2
18
★★★☆☆
57.4
 Top Pick
2 Firebird Suite EP Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
T Drury, Jr.
 2/1
17
★★★☆☆
56.7
 Value Play
3 Voluntold S Neutral
D Sheehy
T Newton
 10/1
16
★★★☆☆
56.0
 Longshot
8 Tiz Salty S Neutral
C A Torres
M R Thompson
 3/1
12
★★★☆☆
51.4
  
4 Ribadeo EP Fits
J A Torres
M Simms, Jr.
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
50.0
  
5 My Sexy Blonde EP Fits
R Bejarano
A B Taylor
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
6 Pauline's Angel P Neutral
W A Rodriguez
B L King
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
1 Seek and Find E Neutral
B Troxtell
J A Medley
 20/1
5
★★☆☆☆
37.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Only After Midnite
P Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
P D'Amato
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Firebird Suite
EP Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.7
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Voluntold
S Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
T Newton
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
8
Tiz Salty
S Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M R Thompson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
4
Ribadeo
EP Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M Simms, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.0
Post · Horse
5
My Sexy Blonde
EP Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
A B Taylor
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
6
Pauline's Angel
P Neutral
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
B L King
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
1
Seek and Find
E Neutral
Jockey
B Troxtell
Trainer
J A Medley
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time7:57 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
An all-debut field of 10 two-year-old colts lines up at 6 1/2 furlongs, creating a showdown between Brad Cox trainee #8 Bermuda and Brendan Walsh pupil #6 Tchaikovsky.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 12.3%
Price horse: Tchaikovsky (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Bermuda —
L Machado
B H Cox
 3/1
12
★★★☆☆
47.0
 Top Pick
6 Tchaikovsky —
C A Torres
B P Walsh
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
45.8
 Value Play
10 Ever Royal —
F Arrieta
E N Foster
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
45.8
 Longshot
7 Dark Sky —
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
4 Union Star —
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 4/1
10
★★★☆☆
44.5
  
1 Colortime —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 5/2
10
★★★☆☆
43.5
  
5 Violent Reserve —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
9 Just for Pipa —
E Morales
G D Foley
 12/1
9
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
2 Better Quality —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
3 Armando —
J Meza
L E Seglin
 30/1
8
★★☆☆☆
39.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Bermuda
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B H Cox
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.0
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Tchaikovsky
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
B P Walsh
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse Longshot
10
Ever Royal
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E N Foster
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse
7
Dark Sky
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
4
Union Star
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.5
Post · Horse
1
Colortime
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.5
Post · Horse
5
Violent Reserve
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
9
Just for Pipa
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
2
Better Quality
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
3
Armando
—
Jockey
J Meza
Trainer
L E Seglin
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $300,000
Purse$300,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time8:30 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This $300,000 stakes sprint brings together six talented runners where Dallas Stewart trainee #2 American Man holds triple-digit speed figures, but must turn back recent stakes winner #6 Doublecents and Mott pupil #1 Gilded Bandit.
Today's shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
0
S
2

Duel · E: 2 EP: 2 P: 0 S: 2 · #2 American Man, #4 Tagermeen

Two early runners likely to hook up; pressers and closers benefit. Early: #2 American Man, #4 Tagermeen.

From comments+notes · 6/6 styled · display only

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 22.9%
Price horse: Doublecents (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 American Man E Misfit
C A Torres
D Stewart
 9/5
23
★★★★☆
75.0
 Top Pick
6 Doublecents EP Neutral
F Arrieta
B Creighton
 12/1
18
★★★★☆
70.9
 Value Play
1 Gilded Bandit S Fits
L Machado
W I Mott
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
70.0
  
4 Tagermeen E Misfit
J A Torres
S M Asmussen
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
69.6
  
5 Creole Chrome EP Neutral
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
67.6
  
3 Stop the Car S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
B P Walsh
 7/2
13
★★★★☆
66.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
American Man
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.0
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Doublecents
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B Creighton
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse
1
Gilded Bandit
S Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
W I Mott
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse
4
Tagermeen
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
S M Asmussen
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse
5
Creole Chrome
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse
3
Stop the Car
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
B P Walsh
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time9:05 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Two Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A wide-open turf allowance features 10 runners where #2 Winter Holiday looks to parlay a massive 95 speed figure into a second career win against late-running #1 Gene and Jude and Brad Cox trainee #8 Vaporetti.
Today's shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
3
P
2
S
4

Honest Pace · E: 1 EP: 3 P: 2 S: 4

Enough pressure for a fair pace; no style is handed the race.

From comments · 10/10 styled · display only

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 13.9%
Price horse: Gene and Jude (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Winter Holiday S Neutral
A Achard
E G Harty
 7/2
14
★★★★☆
69.0
 Top Pick
1 Gene and Jude EP Fits
J Loveberry
M J Maker
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
66.9
 Value Play
8 Vaporetti EP Fits
L Machado
B H Cox
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
65.2
 Longshot
4 Dawn Dragon E Neutral
A Concepcion
R Mott
 3/1
10
★★★★☆
64.8
  
6 Easy Wind P Neutral
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 9/2
10
★★★★☆
64.3
  
7 Natural Rights S Neutral
G Saez
S J Cunningham
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
63.0
  
3 Intuitive Wisdom EP Fits
J A Torres
N Vaccarezza
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
62.1
  
9 Utopian S Neutral
A Beschizza
J M Camejo
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
61.9
  
10 Restore P Neutral
C A Torres
D Stewart
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
61.5
  
5 Free Advice S Neutral
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Winter Holiday
S Neutral
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
E G Harty
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Gene and Jude
EP Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
M J Maker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.9
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Vaporetti
EP Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B H Cox
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse
4
Dawn Dragon
E Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
R Mott
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
6
Easy Wind
P Neutral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
7
Natural Rights
S Neutral
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
S J Cunningham
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
3
Intuitive Wisdom
EP Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
9
Utopian
S Neutral
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J M Camejo
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
10
Restore
P Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
5
Free Advice
S Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $300,000
Purse$300,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time9:39 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Bob Baffert invader #1 Explora enters off a powerhouse 102 speed figure victory at Saratoga, but she faces serious local resistance from #4 Conceit and graded-stakes caliber #3 Where Luck Lives.
Today's shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
0
P
0
S
1

Fast Pace · E: 4 EP: 0 P: 0 S: 1 · #1 Explora, #3 Where Luck Lives, #4 Conceit

Three or more early runners; expect a meltdown. Early: #1 Explora, #3 Where Luck Lives, #4 Conceit.

From comments+notes · 5/6 styled · display only

PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 30.2%
Price horse: Where Luck Lives (12/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Explora E Misfit
J J Hernandez
B Baffert
 3/5
30
★★★★★
84.0
 Top Pick
3 Where Luck Lives E Misfit
F Arrieta
B A Lynch
 12/1
17
★★★★☆
75.3
 Value Play
4 Conceit E Misfit
M Gutierrez
B H Cox
 7/2
16
★★★★☆
74.6
  
5 Movie Night E Misfit
A Concepcion
W Walden
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
73.7
  
6 A Fine Chardonnay S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
71.5
  
2 My Steel Magnolia —
C A Torres
C Caramori
 30/1
8
★★★★☆
65.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Explora
E Misfit
Jockey
J J Hernandez
Trainer
B Baffert
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/5
Rating
★★★★★ 84.0
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Where Luck Lives
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B A Lynch
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.3
Post · Horse
4
Conceit
E Misfit
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B H Cox
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.6
Post · Horse
5
Movie Night
E Misfit
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W Walden
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.7
Post · Horse
6
A Fine Chardonnay
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
2
My Steel Magnolia
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
C Caramori
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$134,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time10:10 PM ET
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A sprawling 13-horse turf mile tests #12 Icona from a wide draw against Churchill turf winner #5 Clairita and deep closer #4 Buttons and Lace.
Today's shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
2
P
3
S
2

Fast Pace · E: 5 EP: 2 P: 3 S: 2 · #10 Multiplication, #4 Buttons and Lace, #3 Caviar Breakfast

Three or more early runners; expect a meltdown. Early: #10 Multiplication, #4 Buttons and Lace, #3 Caviar Breakfast.

From comments · 12/13 styled · display only

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 11.3%
Price horse: Clairita (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
12 Icona S Fits
A Concepcion
B P Walsh
 5/1
11
★★★★☆
70.3
 Top Pick
5 Clairita EP Neutral
F Arrieta
P A Bauer
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
68.3
 Value Play
10 Multiplication E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
W B Calhoun
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
67.9
  
8 Goodbetterbest EP Neutral
J Loveberry
J Sharp
 7/2
9
★★★★☆
66.3
  
4 Buttons and Lace E Misfit
E Morales
M Boyce
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
65.6
 Longshot
3 Caviar Breakfast E Misfit
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 9/2
8
★★★★☆
65.5
  
7 Next Up P Fits
M Gutierrez
M P Sims
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
65.4
  
6 More Galilady P Fits
G Corrales
D Stewart
 15/1
7
★★★★☆
63.1
  
11 Sanctify E Misfit
B Curtis
H Holsapple
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
62.1
  
13 R Katiebug S Fits
E Morales
M Boyce
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
61.5
  
2 Asteria —
S Sanjur
A Navarrete
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
61.1
  
9 Run Camila Run E Misfit
W A Rodriguez
A Decker
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
1 Flash Wear P Fits
L Machado
A Navarrete
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
12
Icona
S Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
B P Walsh
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.3
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Clairita
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
P A Bauer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse
10
Multiplication
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
W B Calhoun
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse
8
Goodbetterbest
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Buttons and Lace
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
M Boyce
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
3
Caviar Breakfast
E Misfit
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.5
Post · Horse
7
Next Up
P Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
M P Sims
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
6
More Galilady
P Fits
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D Stewart
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.1
Post · Horse
11
Sanctify
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
H Holsapple
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
13
R Katiebug
S Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
M Boyce
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
2
Asteria
—
Jockey
S Sanjur
Trainer
A Navarrete
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse
9
Run Camila Run
E Misfit
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
A Decker
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
1
Flash Wear
P Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
A Navarrete
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10
Race Details
Class & Money
Typestakes at a mile or over, allowed 2 Lbs
Purse$200,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time10:40 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Bob Baffert's unbeaten stakes filly #3 Consequent looks to run her record to 4-for-4 as she steps up to two turns against Saratoga allowance winner #2 Answered Prayers.
Today's shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
2
S
0

Favors Front · E: 1 EP: 1 P: 2 S: 0

Light early pressure; the front end should get its way.

From comments+notes · 4/6 styled · display only

PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 30.4%
Price horse: Answered Prayers (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Consequent —
J J Hernandez
B Baffert
 6/5
30
★★★★★
80.1
 Top Pick
2 Answered Prayers EP Fits
J A Torres
W I Mott
 5/1
18
★★★★☆
72.4
 Value Play
5 A. P.'s Girl P Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P Eurton
 3/1
17
★★★★☆
71.7
  
4 Knickleandime E Fits
R Bejarano
R L Morse
 6/1
15
★★★★☆
69.2
 Longshot
6 In Total Awe —
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
64.9
  
1 Woodstock P Neutral
B Curtis
J Sharp
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
60.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Consequent
—
Jockey
J J Hernandez
Trainer
B Baffert
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★★ 80.1
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Answered Prayers
EP Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W I Mott
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.4
Post · Horse
5
A. P.'s Girl
P Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P Eurton
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.7
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Knickleandime
E Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R L Morse
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse
6
In Total Awe
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.9
Post · Horse
1
Woodstock
P Neutral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
J Sharp
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 11
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$67,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time11:08 PM ET
Field Size16
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The nightcap features a crowded maiden sprint at seven furlongs where #9 Beijing looks to break through after three runner-up finishes, but #4 Boss' Deed and #1 Great Moment hold comparable figures.
Today's shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
3
P
5
S
3

Honest Pace · E: 1 EP: 3 P: 5 S: 3

Enough pressure for a fair pace; no style is handed the race.

From comments · 12/16 styled · display only

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 13.3%
Price horse: Boss' Deed (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Beijing S Neutral
A Concepcion
W Walden
 2/1
13
★★★★☆
65.6
 Top Pick
4 Boss' Deed EP Fits
J A Torres
T Newton
 12/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.4
 Value Play
1 Great Moment P Neutral
E Morales
G D Foley
 9/2
9
★★★☆☆
59.0
  
14 Mr. All In P Neutral
J A Torres
W B Calhoun
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
6 Mizzou E Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
M Salas
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.0
 Longshot
2 Lifes Reward P Neutral
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.6
  
7 Tuxedo Park P Neutral
D Sheehy
J Corrigan
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
56.1
  
11 Harbor Prince S Neutral
I Moncada
T Drury, Jr.
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
53.6
  
15 Soho Jimmy EP Fits
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
51.1
  
10 Rocky Raccoon EP Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
51.0
  
12 Roman Rogue —
C A Torres
D Stewart
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
49.6
  
3 Centerline P Neutral
A Achard
J Ennis
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.0
  
5 King of Heat S Neutral
L Hoskins
J K Desormeaux
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
48.5
  
13 Merited —
J Loveberry
D Beckman
 8/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
16 A. P. Cloud —
A Achard
B Pittman
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.9
  
8 Hayburn's Case —
W A Rodriguez
L Robson
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Beijing
S Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W Walden
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Boss' Deed
EP Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
T Newton
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse
1
Great Moment
P Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse
14
Mr. All In
P Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W B Calhoun
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Mizzou
E Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
M Salas
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.0
Post · Horse
2
Lifes Reward
P Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.6
Post · Horse
7
Tuxedo Park
P Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Corrigan
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.1
Post · Horse
11
Harbor Prince
S Neutral
Jockey
I Moncada
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.6
Post · Horse
15
Soho Jimmy
EP Fits
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.1
Post · Horse
10
Rocky Raccoon
EP Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.0
Post · Horse
12
Roman Rogue
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.6
Post · Horse
3
Centerline
P Neutral
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
J Ennis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.0
Post · Horse
5
King of Heat
S Neutral
Jockey
L Hoskins
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.5
Post · Horse
13
Merited
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
D Beckman
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
16
A. P. Cloud
—
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
B Pittman
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.9
Post · Horse
8
Hayburn's Case
—
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
L Robson
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro