Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 5.

2026-09-23 Race 5 Morning Card
You're viewing the Morning Card
This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R6
Just Do Believe #4
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Four Dimes #7
12/1 ML
Deepest field
R5
13 runners
13
Pace shape
R4
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents a balanced nine-race Wednesday program highlighted by competitive claiming ranks, juvenile maiden contests, and a two-turn turf sprint finale. Key betting opportunities center on solid foundational favorites in Race 2 and Race 6, where class and form figures clearly separate the primary contenders from the rest of the field. Wide-open turf and dirt maiden affairs in Race 5 and Race 9 provide viable pricing angles for underneath coverage, though conservative bankroll allocation is warranted in juvenile races with minimal past-performance history.
Races 9 Status Live View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:45 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed figures separate #2 Problem Solved from the maiden ranks after a clear runner-up effort at Ellis Park, but he must prove he can seal the deal at a short price against #4 Abundance, who returns from an extended freshening with competitive back numbers.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
1
S
2

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.9%
Price horse: Abundance (8/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Problem Solved S Misfit
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 9/5
22
★★★☆☆
58.3
 Top Pick
4 Abundance P Neutral
J Aranguren
E Rodriguez
 8/1
18
★★★☆☆
55.2
 Value Play
5 My King Air —
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 7/5
17
★★★☆☆
54.7
  
6 Berniedott S Misfit
Y Hazlewood
B L King
 20/1
14
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
7 Four Dimes —
W A Rodriguez
C Williams
 12/1
13
★★★☆☆
50.2
 Longshot
1 Hodl Hard E Fits
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 4/1
9
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
3 Federal Agent EP Fits
E Morales
B C Barnett
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Problem Solved
S Misfit
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Abundance
P Neutral
Jockey
J Aranguren
Trainer
E Rodriguez
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse
5
My King Air
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.7
Post · Horse
6
Berniedott
S Misfit
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
B L King
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Four Dimes
—
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
C Williams
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse
1
Hodl Hard
E Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
3
Federal Agent
EP Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
B C Barnett
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $30,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won Three Races
Purse$62,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:14 PM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won three races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
#3 Laughnowcrylater towers over this conditioned claimer on class figures with repeated 90-plus speed numbers over this track, while #4 Suited and Booted attempts to rebound from an extended layoff with fast Churchill morning works.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.0%
Price horse: Suited and Booted (7/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Laughnowcrylater E —
J L Ortiz
M W McCarthy
 6/5
26
★★★★☆
73.9
 Top Pick
4 Suited and Booted —
J Graham
J K Sweezey
 7/2
21
★★★★☆
70.9
 Value Play
5 Susan's Boy S —
D Machado
B Colebrook
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
66.4
  
6 Fletcher Bay —
E Esquivel
C Contreras
 5/1
15
★★★★☆
65.2
  
2 Spurgeon —
G Saez
S A Kurtz
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
61.5
 Longshot
1 Culprit —
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
60.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Laughnowcrylater
E —
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M W McCarthy
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.9
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Suited and Booted
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Sweezey
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse
5
Susan's Boy
S —
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse
6
Fletcher Bay
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
C Contreras
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Spurgeon
—
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
S A Kurtz
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
1
Culprit
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance Optional Claiming
Purse$45,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:43 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed is drawn all across the gate in this wide-open sprint, forcing #1 Doctor Jeff to hold rail position against #6 Lucky Shot, who arrives in sharp form after pairing 88 speed figures in Ohio.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
2
P
0
S
2

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #6 Lucky Shot, #8 Banidoso, #4 Secured Lender.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.2%
Price horse: Doctor Jeff (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Lucky Shot E Misfit
S Gonzalez
C Banks
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
69.6
 Top Pick
1 Doctor Jeff S Fits
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 5/2
14
★★★★☆
68.5
 Value Play
2 Social Hour EP Neutral
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 3/1
13
★★★★☆
66.8
  
3 League of Legends S Fits
F Arrieta
R L Morse
 15/1
12
★★★★☆
65.4
  
8 Banidoso E Misfit
L Machado
K A Fernandez
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
64.5
  
5 Glint —
L R Rivera, Jr.
P A Synnefias
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
62.9
  
4 Secured Lender E Misfit
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
62.8
 Longshot
9 Miacomet EP Neutral
M Gutierrez
G Esquivel
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
61.8
  
7 Saint in the City E Misfit
E Morales
T L Van Berg
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
58.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Lucky Shot
E Misfit
Jockey
S Gonzalez
Trainer
C Banks
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Doctor Jeff
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
2
Social Hour
EP Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse
3
League of Legends
S Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
R L Morse
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
8
Banidoso
E Misfit
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
K A Fernandez
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
5
Glint
—
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
P A Synnefias
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Secured Lender
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
9
Miacomet
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
G Esquivel
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
7
Saint in the City
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
T L Van Berg
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $16,000
Purse$37,000
Claiming$16,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:13 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Dropping into a $16,000 claiming tag off a seven-month layoff, #1 Proctor Phantom brings substantial back class against #7 Hesper, who won over this track in June with an 88 speed figure.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
1
S
2

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #3 Halfway Joking, #8 Good to Be Prince.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.5%
Price horse: Hesper (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Proctor Phantom P Fits
L Saez
N W Casse
 5/2
18
★★★★☆
66.7
 Top Pick
7 Hesper S Fits
T Gaffalione
G D Foley
 5/1
14
★★★★☆
63.6
 Value Play
3 Halfway Joking E Misfit
W A Rodriguez
D Jacobson
 7/2
14
★★★★☆
63.5
  
6 Tiger's Legacy EP Neutral
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 4/1
14
★★★★☆
62.8
  
2 Redacted S Fits
L R Rivera, Jr.
P A Synnefias
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
62.1
  
8 Good to Be Prince E Misfit
J Loveberry
E Rodriguez
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
60.2
 Longshot
5 Mister Positivity EP Neutral
S Pauly
E N Foster
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.0
  
4 Dr Fenn EP Neutral
D Sheehy
T D Vance
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Proctor Phantom
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
N W Casse
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Hesper
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
G D Foley
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
3
Halfway Joking
E Misfit
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
D Jacobson
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
6
Tiger's Legacy
EP Neutral
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
2
Redacted
S Fits
Jockey
L R Rivera, Jr.
Trainer
P A Synnefias
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Good to Be Prince
E Misfit
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
E Rodriguez
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
Post · Horse
5
Mister Positivity
EP Neutral
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E N Foster
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.0
Post · Horse
4
Dr Fenn
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
T D Vance
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$75,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:45 PM ET
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A crowded field of 13 two-year-old fillies features lightly raced runners and several first-time starters, where #9 Soul of the Night seeks forward progress after earning a 69 speed figure in her debut.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 11.3%
Price horse: Greatest Blaze (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Soul of the Night —
L Saez
B H Cox
 5/1
11
★★★☆☆
51.1
 Top Pick
1 Greatest Blaze EP —
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.0
 Value Play
8 Passage Du Desir —
J L Ortiz
B H Cox
 4/1
10
★★★☆☆
48.5
  
6 Devious Lady —
J A Torres
W B Calhoun
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
48.4
  
3 Hex Appeal —
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
5 Corniche Road —
M Gutierrez
D Stewart
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.4
  
11 She's Toasty
J Elliott
E Kenneally
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
10 Tumbling —
B Curtis
M W McCarthy
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
12 Putnam Market —
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
7 Blame to Fame —
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
2 Twenty Three Gold
L Machado
B Colebrook
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
4 Acerbic
A Cedillo
R L Morse
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
40.8
  
13 Your Choice —
A Gomez
T Rivera
 30/1
5
★★☆☆☆
39.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Soul of the Night
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B H Cox
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.1
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Greatest Blaze
EP —
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.0
Post · Horse
8
Passage Du Desir
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
B H Cox
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.5
Post · Horse
6
Devious Lady
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W B Calhoun
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse
3
Hex Appeal
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
5
Corniche Road
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Stewart
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.4
Post · Horse
11
She's Toasty
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
E Kenneally
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
10
Tumbling
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M W McCarthy
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
12
Putnam Market
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
7
Blame to Fame
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
2
Twenty Three Gold
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
Post · Horse
4
Acerbic
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R L Morse
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.8
Post · Horse
13
Your Choice
—
Jockey
A Gomez
Trainer
T Rivera
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $50,000
Purse$78,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:17 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Top-rated #4 Just Do Believe brings pristine form lines into this $50,000 claiming contest, but must turn back the late kick of #3 Tetiaroa, who drops back to sprinting after an Indiana victory.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
4
P
0
S
0

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #4 Just Do Believe, #2 Special Sauce, #7 Jr Miss Buttercup.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.5%
Price horse: Tetiaroa (7/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Just Do Believe E Misfit
J Barbosa
A Farrior
 7/2
26
★★★★☆
73.5
 Top Pick
3 Tetiaroa EP Neutral
J L Ortiz
P A Bauer
 7/5
16
★★★★☆
65.8
 Value Play
5 Revel Toast EP Neutral
T Gaffalione
K LaRose
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
63.1
  
2 Special Sauce E Misfit
E Morales
G Garcia
 9/2
13
★★★★☆
62.8
  
1 Tempting Eve EP Neutral
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 15/1
12
★★★★☆
61.7
 Longshot
7 Jr Miss Buttercup E Misfit
J A Torres
J D Davis
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
59.4
  
6 Good Call EP Neutral
C A Torres
A Shorter
 30/1
9
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Just Do Believe
E Misfit
Jockey
J Barbosa
Trainer
A Farrior
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.5
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Tetiaroa
EP Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
P A Bauer
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.8
Post · Horse
5
Revel Toast
EP Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
K LaRose
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.1
Post · Horse
2
Special Sauce
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G Garcia
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Tempting Eve
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse
7
Jr Miss Buttercup
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J D Davis
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse
6
Good Call
EP Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
A Shorter
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$92,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:48 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Stretching out to a one-turn mile, #3 Gut Reaction holds the edge on workout conditioning, but faces proven route competition from #7 When I Go, who hit the board in back-to-back Ellis Park starts.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 22.8%
Price horse: When I Go (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Gut Reaction
J L Ortiz
K LaRose
 9/5
23
★★★☆☆
58.3
 Top Pick
7 When I Go E —
T Gaffalione
E N Foster
 5/2
16
★★★☆☆
53.1
 Value Play
8 My Birthday Gift E —
R Bejarano
R A Barrett
 4/1
13
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
5 My Boy Gary —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
46.7
 Longshot
9 Good Hand —
F Arrieta
R L Morse
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
1 Mo Reviews —
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 15/1
9
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
4 Buffalo Soldier
E Morales
J Blair
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
40.9
  
6 Asher Dasher —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
40.5
  
2 Greatest Nate —
G Corrales
L Briley
 20/1
6
★★☆☆☆
38.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Gut Reaction
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K LaRose
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
Post · Horse Value Play
7
When I Go
E —
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
E N Foster
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse
8
My Birthday Gift
E —
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R A Barrett
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse Longshot
5
My Boy Gary
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.7
Post · Horse
9
Good Hand
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
R L Morse
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
Post · Horse
1
Mo Reviews
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
4
Buffalo Soldier
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Blair
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.9
Post · Horse
6
Asher Dasher
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.5
Post · Horse
2
Greatest Nate
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
L Briley
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:19 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
#10 Stellenbosch brings dominant morning drills into this two-turn allowance, but #9 Pagode owns formidable back speed figures of 98, 100, and 103 over this exact Churchill oval.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
0
P
4
S
4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #10 Stellenbosch, #5 Penalty Box.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.8%
Price horse: Pagode (8/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Stellenbosch E Misfit
F Arrieta
B Baffert
 8/1
16
★★★★☆
70.2
 Top Pick
9 Pagode S Fits
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 8/5
14
★★★★☆
68.3
 Value Play
5 Penalty Box E Misfit
B Curtis
M W McCarthy
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
64.8
  
4 Gamblers Tail P Fits
L Saez
J A Ortiz
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
62.7
  
2 Amor Patriae P Fits
J A Torres
J P DiVito
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
62.3
  
6 Coalmoon S Fits
L Machado
P H Lobo
 15/1
9
★★★★☆
61.6
 Longshot
7 Universe S Fits
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
61.0
  
3 Memory P Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
60.5
  
1 Fear of Union S Fits
C A Torres
S J Cunningham
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
60.3
  
8 Zapruder P Fits
M Garcia
D L Romans
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Stellenbosch
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B Baffert
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Pagode
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse
5
Penalty Box
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M W McCarthy
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
4
Gamblers Tail
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J A Ortiz
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
2
Amor Patriae
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J P DiVito
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.3
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Coalmoon
S Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
P H Lobo
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.6
Post · Horse
7
Universe
S Fits
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
3
Memory
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
1
Fear of Union
S Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
S J Cunningham
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
8
Zapruder
P Fits
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
D L Romans
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$67,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:50 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed figures point toward #3 D Bigalow in this turf sprint maiden, but #2 Stoic Sage and #1 Anthony the Great have both demonstrated tactical turf speed capable of upsetting the favorite.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
2
P
2
S
0

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #2 Stoic Sage, #4 Telecaster, #10 Pelican Hill.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.3%
Price horse: Anthony the Great (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 D Bigalow EP Neutral
M Gutierrez
D Fawkes
 8/1
15
★★★☆☆
59.9
 Top Pick
1 Anthony the Great —
F Arrieta
A Hernandez
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
56.6
 Value Play
9 Rockfest P Fits
J A Torres
J P DiVito
 3/1
12
★★★☆☆
56.3
  
2 Stoic Sage E Misfit
E Morales
C Richard
 15/1
12
★★★☆☆
55.7
 Longshot
4 Telecaster E Misfit
W Antongeorgi III
H Holsapple
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
53.9
  
6 Justone More Thing —
D Machado
W D Cowans
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
53.1
  
5 Outofpi P Fits
A Espinoza
R E Gonzalez
 4/1
9
★★★☆☆
52.5
  
10 Pelican Hill E Misfit
J Graham
F Nickel
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
8 Soho Jimmy EP Neutral
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
7 Tonys Kingdom —
G Corrales
A Hernandez
 6/1
4
★★☆☆☆
39.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
D Bigalow
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Fawkes
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Anthony the Great
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
A Hernandez
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse
9
Rockfest
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J P DiVito
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.3
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Stoic Sage
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
C Richard
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
4
Telecaster
E Misfit
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
H Holsapple
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.9
Post · Horse
6
Justone More Thing
—
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
W D Cowans
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse
5
Outofpi
P Fits
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
R E Gonzalez
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.5
Post · Horse
10
Pelican Hill
E Misfit
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
F Nickel
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
8
Soho Jimmy
EP Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
7
Tonys Kingdom
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
A Hernandez
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro