Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Data-driven full-card analysis with compact access to every race on the board.

2026-09-25 Morning Card
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This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R5
Air of Defiance #4
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
She's Fascinating #4
10/1 ML
Deepest field
R10
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R1
Lone Speed
#4 She's Fascinating
Card Overview
Race day summary
A competitive 10-race program at Churchill Downs presents a mix of tactical dirt sprints, turf routes, and conditioned claiming events. Sizable maiden fields in Races 4, 7, and 10 warrant a defensive betting approach due to low-percentage favorites and wide-open pace profiles. Standout opportunities emerge in the conditioned claiming tiers, particularly Race 1 and Race 5, where class edges and established Churchill dirt figures provide solid structural anchors for exactas and select multi-race sequences.
Races 10 Status Live View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $16,000
Purse$37,000
Claiming$16,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:45 PM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming price $16,000
Storyline
The opener turns on whether #1 Wits and Wagers can transfer his top Churchill local form—highlighted by an 85 speed figure two back—back to route conditions after an off-the-board turf sprint misfire at Indiana.
Pace shape Lone Speed
E
1
EP
0
P
2
S
3

Only one horse wants the lead. It should get an easy trip up front. Wants the lead: #4 She's Fascinating.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 21.5%
Price horse: Parking Lot Pours (6/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Wits and Wagers P Neutral
C A Torres
L Wiggins
 7/5
22
★★★★☆
61.9
 Top Pick
5 Parking Lot Pours S Misfit
E Esquivel
M A Silva
 6/1
19
★★★☆☆
59.9
 Value Play
6 Mint Driven S Misfit
W A Rodriguez
B L King
 5/2
17
★★★☆☆
58.5
  
4 She's Fascinating E Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
A A Coontz
 10/1
15
★★★☆☆
56.8
 Longshot
3 Flirtin Again S Misfit
J C Bealmear
S E Shaffer
 3/1
15
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
2 Hanabi P Neutral
B Martinez
A A Coontz
 15/1
12
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Wits and Wagers
P Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
L Wiggins
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Parking Lot Pours
S Misfit
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
M A Silva
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
Post · Horse
6
Mint Driven
S Misfit
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
B L King
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
Post · Horse Longshot
4
She's Fascinating
E Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
A A Coontz
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.8
Post · Horse
3
Flirtin Again
S Misfit
Jockey
J C Bealmear
Trainer
S E Shaffer
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
2
Hanabi
P Neutral
Jockey
B Martinez
Trainer
A A Coontz
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Mai
Purse$83,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:14 PM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Eligibilitywhich have never won a race other than maiden or claiming price $50,000 or less
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won a race other than maiden or claiming price $50,000 or less
Storyline
Speed duel dynamics define this turf sprint, pitting rail speed #1 Shameless Bride against #6 Twirling Claire, which creates the ideal stalking setup for #2 Alta Avenue.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
3
S
0

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.2%
Price horse: Twirling Claire (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Alta Avenue P Neutral
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 6/5
23
★★★★☆
67.2
 Top Pick
6 Twirling Claire P Neutral
L Saez
G D Foley
 6/1
21
★★★★☆
65.4
 Value Play
5 Balaclava EP Fits
F Arrieta
B Williamson
 4/1
17
★★★★☆
62.8
  
3 Heads in Beds E Neutral
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 3/1
17
★★★★☆
62.4
  
1 Shameless Bride EP Fits
A Concepcion
E W West
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
56.4
 Longshot
4 Stormy Paradise P Neutral
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 12/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Alta Avenue
P Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.2
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Twirling Claire
P Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G D Foley
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
5
Balaclava
EP Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B Williamson
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
3
Heads in Beds
E Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.4
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Shameless Bride
EP Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
E W West
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
4
Stormy Paradise
P Neutral
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $30,000
Purse$62,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:43 PM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming price $30,000
Storyline
The critical test comes down to whether #6 Poppy Woppy's razor-sharp gate drill transfers to an outside pressing trip against rail rival #1 Transatlantic.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
0
S
1

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #6 Poppy Woppy, #5 Nightmare Fuel.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 22.0%
Price horse: Transatlantic (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Poppy Woppy E Misfit
Y Hazlewood
C W Rosin
 9/5
22
★★★★☆
62.5
 Top Pick
1 Transatlantic —
T Gaffalione
K LaRose
 9/2
20
★★★★☆
61.0
 Value Play
3 No Time Left EP Neutral
J A Torres
M Williams
 6/1
16
★★★☆☆
58.2
  
4 Tizianna S Fits
E Morales
H Pitts
 4/1
15
★★★☆☆
57.0
  
5 Nightmare Fuel E Misfit
F Arrieta
D Fawkes
 3/1
15
★★★☆☆
56.3
  
2 Nut Bush City EP Neutral
A Concepcion
W B Calhoun
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
53.1
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Poppy Woppy
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
C W Rosin
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.5
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Transatlantic
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
K LaRose
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
3
No Time Left
EP Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M Williams
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
4
Tizianna
S Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
H Pitts
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.0
Post · Horse
5
Nightmare Fuel
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D Fawkes
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.3
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Nut Bush City
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W B Calhoun
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$72,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:13 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree year olds
Weight120 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens, three years old and upward. Weight: Three year olds, 120 lbs.; older, 125 lbs
Storyline
An 11-horse maiden scramble turns on whether #5 Dontworryboutnothn's established mid-80s speed figures can fend off an aggressive group of first-timers and class droppers in a wide-open scramble.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
2
S
1

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #5 Dontworryboutnothn, #10 Quentin B, #7 Gadget Play.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.2%
Price horse: Big Boy Thunder (20/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Dontworryboutnothn E Misfit
Y Hazlewood
D Jacobson
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
64.4
 Top Pick
2 Big Boy Thunder S Fits
S Pauly
J L Greenhill
 20/1
12
★★★★☆
60.5
 Value Play
1 Nonno —
T Gaffalione
N Vaccarezza
 9/2
11
★★★☆☆
58.9
  
9 Great Moment P Fits
E Morales
G D Foley
 12/1
11
★★★☆☆
58.4
  
10 Quentin B E Misfit
M Garcia
D L Romans
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
57.7
  
7 Gadget Play E Misfit
L Saez
A M Stall, Jr.
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
4 Native Brew P Fits
A Concepcion
S M Asmussen
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.9
 Longshot
11 Sixer —
J A Torres
R Mott
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.4
  
8 Ace in Hand —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
6 Elvis Tony —
V R Carrasco
B A Lynch
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
3 Why Not Fly —
J Meza
M Douaihy
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Dontworryboutnothn
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
D Jacobson
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.4
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Big Boy Thunder
S Fits
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
J L Greenhill
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
1
Nonno
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
Post · Horse
9
Great Moment
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.4
Post · Horse
10
Quentin B
E Misfit
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
D L Romans
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.7
Post · Horse
7
Gadget Play
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Native Brew
P Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
11
Sixer
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
8
Ace in Hand
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
6
Elvis Tony
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
B A Lynch
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
3
Why Not Fly
—
Jockey
J Meza
Trainer
M Douaihy
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $12,500 Or Less In 2025 - 2026
Purse$60,000
Claiming$12,500
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:45 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have started for a claiming price of $12,500 or less in 2025 - 2026. Claiming price $12,500
Storyline
Heavy chalk #4 Air of Defiance brings triple-digit Churchill speed figures into this seven-furlong test, but he must hold off late-closing class veterans #2 Unload and #6 Prayforpeace if the pace is pressed.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
3
P
0
S
1

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #4 Air of Defiance, #6 Prayforpeace, #7 Dr. Storm.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.5%
Price horse: Unload (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Air of Defiance E Misfit
F Arrieta
S J Cunningham
 1/1
24
★★★★☆
77.0
 Top Pick
2 Unload S Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
14
★★★★☆
69.5
 Value Play
6 Prayforpeace E Misfit
M Murrill
C A Hartman
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
68.3
  
5 Saltwater Cowboy EP Neutral
L Saez
C A David
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
68.1
  
7 Dr. Storm E Misfit
S Pauly
I Bahena
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
66.0
 Longshot
8 Highly Flammable EP Neutral
F De La Cruz
S Donjuan
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
63.3
  
3 Bloodline —
W A Rodriguez
J E Orantes
 30/1
8
★★★★☆
60.6
  
1 Air Invasion EP Neutral
A Concepcion
M Paramo
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Air of Defiance
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
S J Cunningham
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
1/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.0
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Unload
S Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.5
Post · Horse
6
Prayforpeace
E Misfit
Jockey
M Murrill
Trainer
C A Hartman
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse
5
Saltwater Cowboy
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C A David
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.1
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Dr. Storm
E Misfit
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
I Bahena
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.0
Post · Horse
8
Highly Flammable
EP Neutral
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
S Donjuan
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
Post · Horse
3
Bloodline
—
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
J E Orantes
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse
1
Air Invasion
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M Paramo
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance Optional Claiming
Purse$64,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:18 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
An evenly matched group of fillies and mares features top-rated #6 Tiffany Twist attempting to parlay strong local connections against #4 Sweet Note, who drops in class out of Saratoga.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
4
P
1
S
1

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.2%
Price horse: Sweet Note (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Tiffany Twist S Neutral
J A Torres
C Santamaria
 2/1
18
★★★★☆
70.6
 Top Pick
4 Sweet Note EP Fits
T Gaffalione
K LaRose
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
67.9
 Value Play
3 Spencerian EP Fits
A Concepcion
W Walden
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
67.3
  
5 Dozen Diamonds E Neutral
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
63.5
 Longshot
1 Fugitive Star —
L Saez
D Jacobson
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
63.0
  
7 Story Hour EP Fits
C A Torres
R Medina
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
61.9
  
2 Best Cupcake EP Fits
J Loveberry
M E Lauer
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
61.9
  
8 Mombayla P Neutral
S Pauly
I Bahena
 30/1
9
★★★★☆
60.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Tiffany Twist
S Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Santamaria
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.6
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Sweet Note
EP Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
K LaRose
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse
3
Spencerian
EP Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W Walden
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Dozen Diamonds
E Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
1
Fugitive Star
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
D Jacobson
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
7
Story Hour
EP Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Medina
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
2
Best Cupcake
EP Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
M E Lauer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
8
Mombayla
P Neutral
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
I Bahena
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:50 PM ET
Field Size13
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens, fillies two years old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
Thirteen juvenile fillies tackle two turns on turf, where experienced Kentucky Downs runners #7 My Blue Heaven and #6 Olympic Belle clash with well-bred first-time turf routers from top barns.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 11.8%
Price horse: Olympic Belle (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 My Blue Heaven EP —
J C Bealmear
A M Meah
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
53.0
 Top Pick
6 Olympic Belle EP —
D Sheehy
B P Walsh
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
52.5
 Value Play
3 Upstart Empress EP —
W A Rodriguez
C Davis
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
50.6
 Longshot
11 Just Dance —
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
50.0
  
13 Lady Maximum S —
F De La Cruz
S Donjuan
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
46.8
  
1 Que Sera —
C A Torres
C Caramori
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
46.5
  
2 Tram Mo —
L Saez
M E Casse
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
45.7
  
4 Qdoro —
A Concepcion
B H Cox
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
8 Anywhere With You —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
10 House of Candy —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P Eurton
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
5 She Ran —
V R Carrasco
G R Arnold II
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
12 Madam Joker —
Y Hazlewood
C Davis
 20/1
5
★★☆☆☆
39.7
  
9 Lexi's Epic Ride —
L Machado
D K Von Hemel
 30/1
4
★★☆☆☆
37.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
My Blue Heaven
EP —
Jockey
J C Bealmear
Trainer
A M Meah
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.0
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Olympic Belle
EP —
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
B P Walsh
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.5
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Upstart Empress
EP —
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
C Davis
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.6
Post · Horse
11
Just Dance
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.0
Post · Horse
13
Lady Maximum
S —
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
S Donjuan
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
1
Que Sera
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
C Caramori
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.5
Post · Horse
2
Tram Mo
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M E Casse
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.7
Post · Horse
4
Qdoro
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
B H Cox
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
Post · Horse
8
Anywhere With You
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
10
House of Candy
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P Eurton
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
5
She Ran
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
G R Arnold II
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
12
Madam Joker
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
C Davis
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.7
Post · Horse
9
Lexi's Epic Ride
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $20,000 Or Less In 2025 - 2026
Purse$76,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:22 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have started for a claiming price of $20,000 or less in 2025 - 2026. Claiming price $20,000
Storyline
A fierce six-furlong sprint features Churchill course lover #5 Q's Your Mama trying to outkick freshened Oaklawn stakes-level dropper #2 Tizntshelovely and New York shipper #3 Sassy Princess.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
3
P
1
S
0

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #5 Q's Your Mama, #2 Tizntshelovely, #8 Musical Prayer.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 13.9%
Price horse: Tizntshelovely (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Q's Your Mama E Misfit
L Saez
N Ramsey
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
68.5
 Top Pick
2 Tizntshelovely E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 7/2
14
★★★★☆
68.4
 Value Play
3 Sassy Princess —
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 5/2
13
★★★★☆
68.0
  
1 Progeny EP Neutral
R Bejarano
J G Cook
 5/1
13
★★★★☆
67.4
  
8 Musical Prayer E Misfit
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
66.2
  
4 Talkin in Cursive E Misfit
J A Torres
M A Shirer
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
65.8
 Longshot
6 Danzig's Dora EP Neutral
B Curtis
K LaRose
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
7 Betsylicious EP Neutral
D Grisales Rave
W P McCall III
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
9 Lady Dreamer P Fits
G Corrales
L Briley
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
58.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Q's Your Mama
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
N Ramsey
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Tizntshelovely
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse
3
Sassy Princess
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse
1
Progeny
EP Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
J G Cook
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse
8
Musical Prayer
E Misfit
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Talkin in Cursive
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M A Shirer
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.8
Post · Horse
6
Danzig's Dora
EP Neutral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
K LaRose
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
7
Betsylicious
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
W P McCall III
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
9
Lady Dreamer
P Fits
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
L Briley
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowances)
Purse$134,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:54 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter
WeightWeight: 122 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have never won two races other than maiden, claiming, or starter. Weight: 122 lbs
Storyline
The co-feature turns on whether #3 Royal Causeway can rebound from a troubled run at Kentucky Downs to replicate his 100-plus speed figures over this Churchill lawn against rail router #1 Banksy's.
Pace shape Lone Speed
E
1
EP
0
P
3
S
4

Only one horse wants the lead. It should get an easy trip up front. Wants the lead: #7 Aces Honor.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.0%
Price horse: Banksy's (4/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Royal Causeway S Misfit
C A Torres
D Stewart
 4/1
19
★★★★☆
73.0
 Top Pick
1 Banksy's S Misfit
T Gaffalione
D Fawkes
 4/1
18
★★★★☆
72.5
 Value Play
5 Go Grey P Neutral
W A Rodriguez
M J Maker
 5/2
15
★★★★☆
69.6
  
2 Brave Force P Neutral
M Garcia
J Sisterson
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
64.5
 Longshot
6 Go for Rocket S Misfit
F Arrieta
A Hernandez
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
64.5
  
7 Aces Honor E Fits
L Machado
E W West
 3/1
10
★★★★☆
64.0
  
4 Corona de Oro S Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
62.2
  
8 Exosome P Neutral
L Saez
K Danner
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Royal Causeway
S Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.0
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Banksy's
S Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Fawkes
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.5
Post · Horse
5
Go Grey
P Neutral
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
M J Maker
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Brave Force
P Neutral
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
J Sisterson
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
6
Go for Rocket
S Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
A Hernandez
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
7
Aces Honor
E Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
E W West
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.0
Post · Horse
4
Corona de Oro
S Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
8
Exosome
P Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
K Danner
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$57,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:25 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens
Storyline
The nightcap presents an unwieldy 16-horse maiden claimer where #11 Crystal Frost must navigate a wide starting position to translate consistent mid-60s speed figures into her elusive first career win.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
3
S
3

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #6 Domina d'Oro, #13 Muriel Sax.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 10.1%
Price horse: Givemethebeat (20/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Crystal Frost S Fits
R Bejarano
R A Barrett
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
55.3
 Top Pick
9 Givemethebeat S Fits
Y Hazlewood
J A Hancock
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
54.9
 Value Play
12 Dizzy Miss Lizzy —
W A Rodriguez
C Davis
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
52.7
 Longshot
6 Domina d'Oro E Misfit
W Antongeorgi III
W E Morey
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
52.0
  
14 Triple Moon EP Neutral
A Concepcion
A M West
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
50.9
  
13 Muriel Sax E Misfit
S Pauly
I Bahena
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
50.8
  
8 Spill the Sugar P Fits
J A Torres
K LaRose
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
16 Buckeye Favorite P Fits
W A Rodriguez
R Medina
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.8
  
3 Critikal Sense P Fits
J Elliott
E G Harty
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.3
  
4 Clear Fork —
F Arrieta
P D'Amato
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.1
  
1 Magic Class —
T Gaffalione
N Vaccarezza
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
5 Donna Strada —
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
43.5
  
2 Yaira —
L Saez
K Danner
 7/2
4
★★★☆☆
43.1
  
7 Market Strategy S Fits
A Concepcion
M A Tomlinson
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.7
  
15 Alabama Getaway
G Corrales
D L Romans
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
40.4
  
10 Take It All —
A Cedillo
R A Barrett
 20/1
3
★★☆☆☆
38.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Crystal Frost
S Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R A Barrett
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.3
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Givemethebeat
S Fits
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
J A Hancock
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.9
Post · Horse Longshot
12
Dizzy Miss Lizzy
—
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
C Davis
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.7
Post · Horse
6
Domina d'Oro
E Misfit
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
W E Morey
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.0
Post · Horse
14
Triple Moon
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M West
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.9
Post · Horse
13
Muriel Sax
E Misfit
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
I Bahena
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.8
Post · Horse
8
Spill the Sugar
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
K LaRose
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
16
Buckeye Favorite
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
R Medina
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
3
Critikal Sense
P Fits
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
E G Harty
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.3
Post · Horse
4
Clear Fork
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
P D'Amato
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.1
Post · Horse
1
Magic Class
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
5
Donna Strada
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.5
Post · Horse
2
Yaira
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
K Danner
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.1
Post · Horse
7
Market Strategy
S Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.7
Post · Horse
15
Alabama Getaway
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.4
Post · Horse
10
Take It All
—
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R A Barrett
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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