Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Data-driven full-card analysis with compact access to every race on the board.

2026-09-26 Morning Card
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This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R8
Plutarch #1
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Getting After It #1
15/1 ML
Deepest field
R5
11 runners
11
Pace shape
R4
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents an 11-race card highlighted by three rich stakes events in races 8 through 10, featuring elite dirt runners stretching around two turns. The dirt track favors tactical versatility, but competitive middle-tier claiming and allowance races earlier on offer clear separation through verified recent speed figures and sharp morning works. The grass events in races 4, 7, and 11 feature large fields where stalking trips should hold the upper hand over speed duels. The strongest opportunity on the program comes in Race 8, where Plutarch brings imposing graded credentials back off the bench.
Races 11 Status Live View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$57,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:45 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A field of eight starts the card with #2 Mustang Lady and #8 She's Gotta Go matching comparable recent form, but Mustang Lady gets an inside pressing draw while She's Gotta Go must work out a trip from the outside post. The key question is whether #2 Mustang Lady can translate her consistent Churchill Downs figures into an elusive victory against proven claiming company.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
2
S
4

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.4%
Price horse: She's Gotta Go (8/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Mustang Lady E Fits
J A Torres
T Newton
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
61.0
 Top Pick
8 She's Gotta Go P Neutral
C A Torres
M A Shirer
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
60.8
 Value Play
7 Lexi's Melody S Misfit
L Saez
J K Sweezey
 5/1
14
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
6 Miss Bourbon S Misfit
M Gutierrez
J Blair
 4/1
12
★★★☆☆
57.1
  
5 Click EP Fits
S Pauly
I Bahena
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
56.8
  
3 Ashes and Diamonds P Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
J E Baker
 2/1
11
★★★☆☆
56.3
  
1 Getting After It S Misfit
F Arrieta
M Puhich
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
56.2
 Longshot
4 Vinno Ronnie S Misfit
W A Rodriguez
T D Vance
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
53.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Mustang Lady
E Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
T Newton
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse Value Play
8
She's Gotta Go
P Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M A Shirer
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse
7
Lexi's Melody
S Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J K Sweezey
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
6
Miss Bourbon
S Misfit
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
J Blair
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
Post · Horse
5
Click
EP Fits
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
I Bahena
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.8
Post · Horse
3
Ashes and Diamonds
P Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
J E Baker
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.3
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Getting After It
S Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Puhich
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.2
Post · Horse
4
Vinno Ronnie
S Misfit
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
T D Vance
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $20,000 Or Less In 2025 - 2026
Purse$76,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:16 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Seven veteran sprinters assemble at six furlongs where #5 Show Time enters riding back-to-back triple-digit speed figures of 102 and 100, but stablemate #6 Margin of Air has shown equal grit and tactical early speed. The outcome hinges on whether #5 Show Time can reproduce his blazing Ellis Park efforts over the Churchill surface.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
2
S
0

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #5 Show Time, #3 Coach Cronin, #1 Gardiner.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 18.3%
Price horse: Coach Cronin (3/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Show Time E Misfit
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 2/1
18
★★★★☆
75.6
 Top Pick
3 Coach Cronin E Misfit
J A Torres
R B Hess, Jr.
 3/1
17
★★★★☆
74.5
  
6 Margin of Air P Fits
W A Rodriguez
D Jacobson
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
74.1
 Value Play
2 Defending Albert P Fits
F Arrieta
J M Watkins
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
70.5
 Longshot
1 Gardiner E Misfit
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
69.1
  
7 Shadow Coast E Misfit
E Morales
B A Vanden Berg
 12/1
12
★★★★☆
69.0
  
4 Cool Cowboy EP Neutral
L Saez
M Simms, Jr.
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
68.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Show Time
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.6
Post · Horse
3
Coach Cronin
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R B Hess, Jr.
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.5
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Margin of Air
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
D Jacobson
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.1
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Defending Albert
P Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
J M Watkins
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.5
Post · Horse
1
Gardiner
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.1
Post · Horse
7
Shadow Coast
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse
4
Cool Cowboy
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M Simms, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$57,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:46 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Eight maiden sprinters line up where #6 Telecaster brings a massive experience and figure edge against a group of lightly raced rivals. The race turns on whether #4 Roman Rogue can take a substantial forward step off his debut 66 figure to challenge the top selection.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 20.7%
Price horse: Roman Rogue (3/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Telecaster E —
W Antongeorgi III
H Holsapple
 4/1
21
★★★☆☆
54.0
 Top Pick
4 Roman Rogue —
C A Torres
D Stewart
 3/1
15
★★★☆☆
49.2
 Value Play
8 Task Force O —
M Garcia
D L Romans
 5/2
12
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
5 Premiere Dancer —
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 20/1
12
★★★☆☆
45.5
  
2 White Cargo —
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 7/2
11
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
1 Chartered —
J A Torres
J Sharp
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
7 Crave a Ball —
M Murrill
G D Foley
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
43.8
 Longshot
3 Yo Jackson —
D Grisales Rave
J F Hill, Jr.
 30/1
8
★★☆☆☆
38.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Telecaster
E —
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
H Holsapple
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.0
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Roman Rogue
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
8
Task Force O
—
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
D L Romans
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
5
Premiere Dancer
—
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.5
Post · Horse
2
White Cargo
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
1
Chartered
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Crave a Ball
—
Jockey
M Murrill
Trainer
G D Foley
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
Post · Horse
3
Yo Jackson
—
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
J F Hill, Jr.
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:18 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Two Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Seven turf sprinters dash five and one-half furlongs where #2 Cinister Cix brings top speed figures of 97 and 98 against #4 Eva Ready, who returns from a layoff for the Chad Brown stable. The critical test is whether Eva Ready is tight enough off the shelf to catch Cinister Cix in the final furlong.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
0
P
1
S
0

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #2 Cinister Cix, #1 Brilliant Bomb.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 20.6%
Price horse: Eva Ready (7/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Cinister Cix E Misfit
L Saez
S Sands
 4/1
21
★★★★☆
64.3
 Top Pick
4 Eva Ready —
T Gaffalione
C C Brown
 7/5
16
★★★★☆
60.8
 Value Play
6 Utopian —
A Beschizza
J M Camejo
 8/1
16
★★★★☆
60.3
 Longshot
3 On Par —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Fawkes
 5/2
14
★★★☆☆
58.3
  
7 Zap d'Etat P Fits
F De La Cruz
G F House
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
1 Brilliant Bomb E Misfit
S Pauly
I Spagnola
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
54.2
  
5 Stashu —
F Arrieta
J C Wainwright
 30/1
10
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Cinister Cix
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S Sands
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Eva Ready
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
C C Brown
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Utopian
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J M Camejo
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
3
On Par
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Fawkes
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
Post · Horse
7
Zap d'Etat
P Fits
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
G F House
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse
1
Brilliant Bomb
E Misfit
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
I Spagnola
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse
5
Stashu
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
J C Wainwright
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:49 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
An unwieldy group of 11 juvenile maidens contest an extended one-turn trip where #10 Riccelli ships in from Del Mar for Bob Baffert off a debut second with a 76 speed figure. The race turns on whether #10 Riccelli can overcome the wide post against locally prepared rivals like #2 Staunch and #3 Fiestabowlforemike.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 17.3%
Price horse: Staunch (2/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Riccelli —
F Arrieta
B Baffert
 4/1
17
★★★☆☆
58.9
 Top Pick
2 Staunch —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 2/1
15
★★★☆☆
56.5
 Value Play
3 Fiestabowlforemike —
J A Torres
D Beckman
 9/2
13
★★★☆☆
54.5
  
8 Gun for Glory —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.2
 Longshot
9 Apotheon —
L Saez
W I Mott
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
48.9
  
5 Slade —
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
6 Mountain Valley —
C A Torres
K G McPeek
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
1 Red Pack's Magic —
R Bejarano
B C Barnett
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
42.9
  
11 Wrappinville —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
7 Red Pack's Candy —
D Sheehy
B C Barnett
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
4 Oren's Flyer —
E Morales
T Drury, Jr.
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Riccelli
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B Baffert
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Staunch
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse
3
Fiestabowlforemike
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
D Beckman
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Gun for Glory
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
9
Apotheon
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
W I Mott
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.9
Post · Horse
5
Slade
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
6
Mountain Valley
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
K G McPeek
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
1
Red Pack's Magic
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
B C Barnett
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.9
Post · Horse
11
Wrappinville
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
7
Red Pack's Candy
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
B C Barnett
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
4
Oren's Flyer
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:21 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Two Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A competitive field of seven two-turn fillies is headlined by #2 Angel Bella, who ships in from Saratoga with an 87 speed figure, and #1 Lady Law, who arrives off an authoritative maiden score at Ellis Park. The central question is whether #1 Lady Law can establish an uncontested rhythm along the rail or get trapped by early pressure.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
0
P
0
S
3

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #6 Passionfruit, #5 Ile de La Cite.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 16.5%
Price horse: Lady Law (6/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Angel Bella —
J A Torres
D Beckman
 8/1
16
★★★★☆
61.5
 Top Pick
1 Lady Law S Fits
L Machado
W B Calhoun
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
61.2
 Value Play
7 Lobby Rendezvous S Fits
M Gutierrez
M A Shirer
 15/1
16
★★★★☆
61.1
 Longshot
6 Passionfruit E Misfit
D Sheehy
P Eurton
 7/2
15
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
3 Couplet —
E Morales
M W McCarthy
 9/5
13
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
4 Ring Rights S Fits
W A Rodriguez
B Knippenberg
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
56.5
  
5 Ile de La Cite E Misfit
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 5/2
12
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Angel Bella
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
D Beckman
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Lady Law
S Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
W B Calhoun
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Lobby Rendezvous
S Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
M A Shirer
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse
6
Passionfruit
E Misfit
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
P Eurton
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
3
Couplet
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
M W McCarthy
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse
4
Ring Rights
S Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
B Knippenberg
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse
5
Ile de La Cite
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Allowed 2 Lbs
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:54 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
An unwieldy turf mile brings together 11 runners where #6 New Purpose steps up for Brad Cox off an 85 speed figure maiden win at Kentucky Downs. The race pivots on whether New Purpose can validate a short price against proven route claimers like #10 Donie Maronie and #5 Gone and Plenty.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
1
S
3

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 12.5%
Price horse: Estardotoo (20/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 New Purpose —
L Machado
B H Cox
 9/5
12
★★★★☆
60.3
 Top Pick
1 Estardotoo S Neutral
D Grisales Rave
G Esquivel
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.1
 Longshot
10 Donie Maronie —
F Arrieta
M E Casse
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.9
 Value Play
5 Gone and Plenty —
B Curtis
J Sharp
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
3 Nymira —
T Gaffalione
R Mott
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
56.5
  
4 Songadeewin EP Fits
D Sheehy
M Lovell
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.2
  
7 Second Opinion —
L Saez
C M Block
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
55.3
  
11 Epernay P Neutral
J Elliott
J K Sweezey
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
53.3
  
9 True Silver J P S Neutral
M Pedroza, Jr.
I Acevedo
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
53.2
  
2 Techwerkian S Neutral
J A Torres
R Hernandez
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.3
  
8 Lecompte's Run E Fits
A Achard
J Ennis
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
New Purpose
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B H Cox
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Estardotoo
S Neutral
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
G Esquivel
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Donie Maronie
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M E Casse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
5
Gone and Plenty
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
3
Nymira
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
R Mott
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse
4
Songadeewin
EP Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M Lovell
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.2
Post · Horse
7
Second Opinion
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C M Block
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.3
Post · Horse
11
Epernay
P Neutral
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
J K Sweezey
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.3
Post · Horse
9
True Silver J P
S Neutral
Jockey
M Pedroza, Jr.
Trainer
I Acevedo
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.2
Post · Horse
2
Techwerkian
S Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Hernandez
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.3
Post · Horse
8
Lecompte's Run
E Fits
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
J Ennis
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $300,000
Purse$300,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:26 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A select field of six competes for $300,000 where #1 Plutarch returns for Bob Baffert boasting back-to-back triple-digit figures of 102 and 94 against #6 Local Knowledge, who posted a massive 111 speed figure winning at Saratoga. The race turns on whether #1 Plutarch can protect his rail position into the first turn against the outside pressure of Local Knowledge.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
1
P
0
S
0

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #1 Plutarch, #6 Local Knowledge, #5 Stimulate.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 25.4%
Price horse: Local Knowledge (3/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Plutarch E Misfit
F Arrieta
B Baffert
 5/2
25
★★★★☆
78.2
 Top Pick
6 Local Knowledge E Misfit
J A Torres
T A Pletcher
 3/1
22
★★★★☆
75.8
 Value Play
5 Stimulate E Misfit
L Saez
W I Mott
 9/5
15
★★★★☆
69.9
  
4 Infiltrate EP Neutral
C A Torres
B P Walsh
 12/1
14
★★★★☆
69.1
  
2 Blackout Time E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
67.7
  
3 Steel E Misfit
T Gaffalione
W I Mott
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
66.8
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Plutarch
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B Baffert
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 78.2
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Local Knowledge
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
T A Pletcher
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.8
Post · Horse
5
Stimulate
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
W I Mott
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.9
Post · Horse
4
Infiltrate
EP Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
B P Walsh
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.1
Post · Horse
2
Blackout Time
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.7
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Steel
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
W I Mott
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $400,000
Purse$400,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:58 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The $400,000 one-mile stakes drew eight high-caliber dirt milers, featuring #4 Bishops Bay, winner of the Monmouth Cup with consecutive figures of 112 and 108, against #7 East Avenue, who defeated him two back. The key question is whether Bishops Bay can turn the tables on East Avenue around Churchill's one-turn mile configuration.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
1
S
3

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Bishops Bay, #8 Nu What's New.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 20.7%
Price horse: Nu What's New (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Bishops Bay E Misfit
T Gaffalione
B H Cox
 9/5
21
★★★★★
81.6
 Top Pick
8 Nu What's New E Misfit
L Saez
J P DiVito
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
76.5
  
3 Owen Almighty S Fits
F Arrieta
B A Lynch
 7/2
13
★★★★☆
74.4
  
2 Arrowthegreat S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Blacker
 15/1
12
★★★★☆
74.0
  
7 East Avenue EP Neutral
C A Torres
B P Walsh
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
72.8
 Value Play
5 Prince of Power P Fits
W A Rodriguez
D Jacobson
 30/1
10
★★★★☆
71.2
  
6 Coal Battle S Fits
J P Vargas
L Briley
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
70.4
 Longshot
1 Macho Music EP Neutral
J Loveberry
R G Crichton
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
66.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Bishops Bay
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B H Cox
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★★ 81.6
Post · Horse
8
Nu What's New
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J P DiVito
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.5
Post · Horse
3
Owen Almighty
S Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B A Lynch
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.4
Post · Horse
2
Arrowthegreat
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Blacker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.0
Post · Horse Value Play
7
East Avenue
EP Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
B P Walsh
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.8
Post · Horse
5
Prince of Power
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
D Jacobson
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.2
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Coal Battle
S Fits
Jockey
J P Vargas
Trainer
L Briley
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse
1
Macho Music
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
R G Crichton
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $500,000
Purse$500,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/8 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:29 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The afternoon's $500,000 feature tests seven older horses at nine furlongs where #4 Banishing brings a massive 113 speed figure from Charles Town to take on graded stakes winner #2 Dragoon Guard and the improving #5 Original Sin. The race turns on whether Banishing can replicate his rapid two-turn speed over Churchill's long homestretch.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
1
S
1

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #5 Original Sin, #1 This Is Uscar.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 17.4%
Price horse: Original Sin (3/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Banishing —
F Arrieta
D Jacobson
 6/1
17
★★★★☆
72.9
 Top Pick
5 Original Sin E Misfit
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
71.3
 Value Play
7 Chunk of Gold —
J A Torres
E W West
 2/1
15
★★★★☆
70.8
  
2 Dragoon Guard P Fits
T Gaffalione
B H Cox
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
70.2
  
6 McAfee EP Neutral
L Saez
G Weaver
 15/1
14
★★★★☆
69.8
 Longshot
1 This Is Uscar E Misfit
E Morales
J Blair
 8/1
14
★★★★☆
69.1
  
3 Tiztastic S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
S M Asmussen
 4/1
10
★★★★☆
64.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Banishing
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D Jacobson
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.9
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Original Sin
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.3
Post · Horse
7
Chunk of Gold
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
E W West
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.8
Post · Horse
2
Dragoon Guard
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B H Cox
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse Longshot
6
McAfee
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G Weaver
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse
1
This Is Uscar
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Blair
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.1
Post · Horse
3
Tiztastic
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 11
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$134,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 3/8 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time6:01 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Three Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The finale challenges ten marathon turf specialists over eleven furlongs, where #1 Royal Justice rides consecutive allowance wins with figures of 92 and 88 against Brendan Walsh's pair, #9 Hereforagoodtime and #10 Snipsnippitysnip. The central drama is whether #1 Royal Justice can handle the extra distance while securing an efficient ground-saving trip along the hedge.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
1
S
4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #1 Royal Justice, #7 Calamity.

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 14.0%
Price horse: Hereforagoodtime (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Royal Justice E Misfit
F De La Cruz
A M West
 8/1
14
★★★★☆
69.8
 Top Pick
9 Hereforagoodtime P Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
67.3
 Value Play
10 Snipsnippitysnip —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
B P Walsh
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
65.2
  
8 Ceniza Pampa EP Neutral
V R Carrasco
H De Paz
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
64.8
  
3 Sol d'Oro EP Neutral
J Loveberry
J Sharp
 3/1
10
★★★★☆
64.7
  
4 One Sweet Girl S Fits
J A Torres
C A David
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
64.6
 Longshot
6 Mambo Queen S Fits
L Saez
M J Maker
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
64.1
  
2 Daisy Flyer S Fits
C A Torres
G R Arnold II
 9/2
9
★★★★☆
62.8
  
7 Calamity E Misfit
B Curtis
J Sharp
 15/1
9
★★★★☆
62.7
  
5 Reining Flowers S Fits
D Sheehy
J A Ortiz
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Royal Justice
E Misfit
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
A M West
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Hereforagoodtime
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse
10
Snipsnippitysnip
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
B P Walsh
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse
8
Ceniza Pampa
EP Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
H De Paz
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
3
Sol d'Oro
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse Longshot
4
One Sweet Girl
S Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C A David
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse
6
Mambo Queen
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M J Maker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
2
Daisy Flyer
S Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
G R Arnold II
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
7
Calamity
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
5
Reining Flowers
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J A Ortiz
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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