Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 11.

2026-10-25 Race 11 Morning Card
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This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R10
Mystik Bayou #4
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Secret Light #7
8/1 ML
Deepest field
R5
12 runners
12
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents an 11-race card featuring two juvenile stakes events alongside competitive maiden and turf claiming fields. Program highlights include twin $200,000 stakes contests in Races 9 and 10, where distance-testing two-year-olds navigate two turns at one mile and a sixteenth. Straightforward class advantages present clean single opportunities in the opener and Race 10, while turf dashes and juvenile sprints offer playable pricing underneath in the exotic pools.
Races 11 Status Completed View Morning
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Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The opener revolves around first-time starter #5 Broadway Girl from the Brad Cox barn, who must overcome lack of racing experience against experienced rival #8 Tess Me Not stretching out to a one-turn mile.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 31.8%
Price horse: Tess Me Not (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Broadway Girl
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 8/5
32
★★★☆☆
57.9
 Top Pick
8 Tess Me Not —
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 9/2
17
★★★☆☆
52.4
 Value Play
3 Seaton Springs —
J L Ortiz
K G McPeek
 5/2
15
★★★☆☆
51.5
  
4 My Pal Al —
J Alvarado
R Medina
 10/1
14
★★★☆☆
51.1
  
7 Secret Light —
C A Torres
D Stewart
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
46.2
 Longshot
1 Jetsetter —
L Saez
M Nihei
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
2 Ashley's Charm —
J A Torres
P A Bauer
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
6 Maddie Josephine —
A Jimenez
C Anderson
 30/1
2
★★☆☆☆
36.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Broadway Girl
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
32
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Tess Me Not
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.4
Post · Horse
3
Seaton Springs
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K G McPeek
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.5
Post · Horse
4
My Pal Al
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Medina
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.1
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Secret Light
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
1
Jetsetter
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M Nihei
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
2
Ashley's Charm
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
P A Bauer
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
6
Maddie Josephine
—
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
C Anderson
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 36.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:29 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Wide-open juvenile turf maiden where #11 Novo Mesto must navigate an outside draw to convert consecutive runner-up finishes into a breakthrough win against well-traveled rival #2 Rumbelievable.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 19.6%
Price horse: Rumbelievable (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Novo Mesto —
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 7/2
20
★★★☆☆
55.7
 Top Pick
2 Rumbelievable —
C A Torres
I R Wilkes
 8/1
19
★★★☆☆
55.4
 Value Play
6 Notgonnacatchher —
L Saez
B A Lynch
 20/1
12
★★★☆☆
51.2
 Longshot
5 Paciano —
J A Torres
W Walden
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
50.2
  
7 Daddy's Nugget —
F Prat
R Brisset
 5/1
8
★★★☆☆
47.6
  
1 Special Butterfly —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.3
  
10 Just a Song —
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.0
  
3 She Ran —
V R Carrasco
G R Arnold II
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
9 Doozie Do —
A Concepcion
K Danner
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
43.8
  
8 She's Icy —
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.1
  
4 Que Sera —
E Morales
T Drury, Jr.
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
41.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Novo Mesto
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Rumbelievable
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
I R Wilkes
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Notgonnacatchher
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B A Lynch
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.2
Post · Horse
5
Paciano
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W Walden
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse
7
Daddy's Nugget
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
R Brisset
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
1
Special Butterfly
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.3
Post · Horse
10
Just a Song
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
3
She Ran
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
G R Arnold II
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
9
Doozie Do
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
K Danner
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
Post · Horse
8
She's Icy
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.1
Post · Horse
4
Que Sera
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$92,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:58 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Experienced maiden #5 Pirate Ship brings four career starts and New York form, but he faces a major gate-to-wire threat from #8 Epic Max, who drilled back-to-back 46.40 half-mile bullets.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.0%
Price horse: Epic Max (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Pirate Ship —
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 7/2
26
★★★☆☆
55.1
 Top Pick
8 Epic Max —
J A Torres
C Santamaria
 5/1
20
★★★☆☆
52.9
 Value Play
7 Mo Octane —
E Morales
H Pitts
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
48.7
 Longshot
2 My Birthday Gift —
D Cannon
R A Barrett
 9/2
12
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
4 Karajan
F Prat
D L Romans
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
48.0
  
3 Hat Yai —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
10 Kringlejustkringle —
M Fernandez
I R Wilkes
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.6
  
9 New Chief —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
40.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Pirate Ship
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.1
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Epic Max
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Santamaria
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.9
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Mo Octane
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
H Pitts
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
2
My Birthday Gift
—
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
R A Barrett
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
4
Karajan
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
D L Romans
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.0
Post · Horse
3
Hat Yai
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
10
Kringlejustkringle
—
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
I R Wilkes
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse
9
New Chief
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$92,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:28 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Two-time runner-up #3 Flaming Verdict seeks her first career win, but must turn back #4 Voli Te, who won her latest start and boasts a fast 59.80 five-furlong workout.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.3%
Price horse: Voli Te (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Flaming Verdict —
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 6/1
23
★★★☆☆
55.2
 Top Pick
4 Voli Te —
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 9/2
20
★★★☆☆
53.9
 Value Play
11 Racheli —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 6/1
14
★★★☆☆
50.5
 Longshot
12 Nauti Talk —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
11
★★★☆☆
48.5
  
1 Diva Dani —
G Corrales
D L Romans
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
47.1
  
8 Chasing Aces —
L Machado
E W West
 5/1
7
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
6 Benevolencia —
M Gutierrez
V H Oliver
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
2 Resilient Lady —
B Curtis
R G Crichton
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
40.1
  
9 Cowgirl Tuff —
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
40.0
  
7 A Sip of Vino —
A Mendoza
G Garcia
 30/1
2
★★☆☆☆
34.4
  
5 Pilatus —
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 30/1
1
★★☆☆☆
31.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Flaming Verdict
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Voli Te
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.9
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Racheli
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
12
Nauti Talk
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.5
Post · Horse
1
Diva Dani
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.1
Post · Horse
8
Chasing Aces
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
E W West
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
6
Benevolencia
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
V H Oliver
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
2
Resilient Lady
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
R G Crichton
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.1
Post · Horse
9
Cowgirl Tuff
—
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.0
Post · Horse
7
A Sip of Vino
—
Jockey
A Mendoza
Trainer
G Garcia
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 34.4
Post · Horse
5
Pilatus
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 31.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:57 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Rail-drawn #1 Quigley brings consistent graded-track form into this full turf route, but he faces a major stamina test against Kentucky Downs runner-up #14 Castle Pines and recent winner #11 Bardstown.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 22.3%
Price horse: Castle Pines (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Quigley —
M Gutierrez
B A Lynch
 9/2
22
★★★★☆
60.6
 Top Pick
14 Castle Pines —
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 3/1
20
★★★☆☆
59.6
 Value Play
11 Bardstown —
J A Torres
R Mott
 20/1
15
★★★☆☆
57.4
 Longshot
6 Ideation —
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sisterson
 7/2
8
★★★☆☆
52.3
  
7 San Moritz —
F Prat
B Baffert
 5/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.5
  
2 Kotetsu —
J L Ortiz
R Brisset
 5/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.1
  
13 Travelin —
J R Velazquez
B A Lynch
 4/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.8
  
5 Yalta —
L Saez
K Danner
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
3 Freddy Tauber —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.5
  
9 Mined That Gold —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.3
  
12 Code of Bravon —
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 30/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.0
  
8 Biathlon —
J R Velazquez
V H Oliver
 30/1
2
★★☆☆☆
37.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Quigley
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B A Lynch
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse Value Play
14
Castle Pines
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Bardstown
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse
6
Ideation
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sisterson
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.3
Post · Horse
7
San Moritz
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B Baffert
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
2
Kotetsu
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
R Brisset
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.1
Post · Horse
13
Travelin
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
B A Lynch
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse
5
Yalta
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
K Danner
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
3
Freddy Tauber
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.5
Post · Horse
9
Mined That Gold
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.3
Post · Horse
12
Code of Bravon
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.0
Post · Horse
8
Biathlon
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
V H Oliver
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:26 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Pacesetter #7 C R Sultan brings three consecutive runner-up efforts and field-topping speed ratings, but he must hold off Churchill winner #9 Vukota and rapid-working #2 Saveurequity.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 28.6%
Price horse: Vukota (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 C R Sultan —
J M Romero
L Gonzalez
 6/1
29
★★★★☆
62.0
 Top Pick
9 Vukota —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 5/2
17
★★★☆☆
57.5
 Value Play
3 Lord Mischief —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
12
★★★☆☆
54.9
  
5 Ever Royal —
F Arrieta
E N Foster
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
54.2
  
2 Saveurequity —
T Gaffalione
R L Morse
 12/1
11
★★★☆☆
54.1
 Longshot
6 Essen Lane —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.1
  
4 Running Ticket —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.3
  
11 Oren's Flyer —
E Morales
T Drury, Jr.
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
10 Oval Authority —
C A Torres
D Stewart
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
1 Colortime —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
C R Sultan
—
Jockey
J M Romero
Trainer
L Gonzalez
29
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Vukota
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
3
Lord Mischief
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.9
Post · Horse
5
Ever Royal
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E N Foster
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Saveurequity
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
R L Morse
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
Post · Horse
6
Essen Lane
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.1
Post · Horse
4
Running Ticket
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.3
Post · Horse
11
Oren's Flyer
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
10
Oval Authority
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
1
Colortime
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:55 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speedy filly #7 Stand by Me exits a maiden victory and sets the standard on figures, but she must withstand pressure from well-bred debut runner-up #2 Ghostline and steady closer #3 Jasmine Absolute.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 28.5%
Price horse: Ghostline (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Stand by Me —
F Arrieta
E N Foster
 9/2
28
★★★☆☆
56.6
 Top Pick
2 Ghostline —
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 6/1
17
★★★☆☆
52.1
 Value Play
3 Jasmine Absolute —
J Alvarado
P A Bauer
 10/1
13
★★★☆☆
50.1
 Longshot
4 Cosmic Creed —
G Corrales
D L Romans
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
48.6
  
10 Harp —
J R Velazquez
R Medina
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
9 Emmas Pearl —
C A Torres
D Stewart
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
42.3
  
6 Hot Body —
R A Vazquez
R Diodoro
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
41.3
  
11 Scarlet Ribbons —
F Prat
B Baffert
 5/2
4
★★☆☆☆
39.0
  
5 Shea Boulevard —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 20/1
3
★★☆☆☆
37.5
  
8 Liam's Rose —
L Saez
M E Casse
 8/1
3
★★☆☆☆
36.5
  
12 Luxdomina —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 5/1
2
★★☆☆☆
35.5
  
13 Unstoppable —
A Espinoza
R C Bryner
 10/1
2
★★☆☆☆
35.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Stand by Me
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E N Foster
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Ghostline
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.1
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Jasmine Absolute
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
P A Bauer
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.1
Post · Horse
4
Cosmic Creed
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.6
Post · Horse
10
Harp
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
R Medina
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
9
Emmas Pearl
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.3
Post · Horse
6
Hot Body
—
Jockey
R A Vazquez
Trainer
R Diodoro
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.3
Post · Horse
11
Scarlet Ribbons
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B Baffert
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.0
Post · Horse
5
Shea Boulevard
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.5
Post · Horse
8
Liam's Rose
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M E Casse
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 36.5
Post · Horse
12
Luxdomina
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.5
Post · Horse
13
Unstoppable
—
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
R C Bryner
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming, Or Starter On The Turf Allowed 2 Lbs
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:25 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Turf sprint specialist #8 Medinah brings high-percentage Casse connections and turf sprint credentials, but short-priced vulnerability opens the door for #9 Sharpie Girl and speedball #3 Bee Crazy.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.6%
Price horse: Sharpie Girl (30/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Medinah —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 6/5
22
★★★☆☆
60.0
 Top Pick
9 Sharpie Girl —
D Sheehy
K Danner
 30/1
20
★★★☆☆
59.4
 Value Play
3 Bee Crazy —
T Gaffalione
K Danner
 3/1
13
★★★☆☆
55.8
 Longshot
1 Estardotoo —
D Grisales Rave
G Esquivel
 20/1
12
★★★☆☆
54.8
  
5 Ciarlatano —
C A Emigh
B A Vanden Berg
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
53.4
  
4 Epernay —
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 15/1
9
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
10 Gal Pal —
A Concepcion
G R Arnold II
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
7 Moxie Girl —
W Antongeorgi III
D F O'Neill
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
6 Sharply —
A Mendoza
G Garcia
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Medinah
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Sharpie Girl
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
K Danner
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Bee Crazy
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
K Danner
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.8
Post · Horse
1
Estardotoo
—
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
G Esquivel
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.8
Post · Horse
5
Ciarlatano
—
Jockey
C A Emigh
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.4
Post · Horse
4
Epernay
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
10
Gal Pal
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
G R Arnold II
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
7
Moxie Girl
—
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
D F O'Neill
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
6
Sharply
—
Jockey
A Mendoza
Trainer
G Garcia
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $200,000
Purse$200,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:55 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The $200,000 juvenile stakes hinges on whether local route winner #3 Oh She Said Yes can fend off New York invader #2 Wharfie, who enters off consecutive runaway victories for Bill Mott.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 22.5%
Price horse: Wharfie (9/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Oh She Said Yes —
J L Ortiz
K G McPeek
 5/2
22
★★★★☆
61.2
 Top Pick
2 Wharfie —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 9/5
18
★★★☆☆
59.2
 Value Play
5 Lunar Velocity —
F Arrieta
R C Bryner
 8/1
14
★★★☆☆
57.5
 Longshot
6 Juana Margarita —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 6/1
14
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
4 Countthetrue —
E Morales
W M Catalano
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
55.9
  
1 Intraosseous —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.1
  
7 First Laugh —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
8
★★★☆☆
52.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Oh She Said Yes
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K G McPeek
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Wharfie
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Lunar Velocity
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
R C Bryner
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
6
Juana Margarita
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
4
Countthetrue
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
W M Catalano
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.9
Post · Horse
1
Intraosseous
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.1
Post · Horse
7
First Laugh
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $200,000
Purse$200,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:25 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Standout juvenile #4 Mystik Bayou towers over this $200,000 stakes field on class and speed ratings, leaving Chad Brown trainee #3 Card Man as the only plausible challenger.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 40.3%
Price horse: Card Man (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Mystik Bayou
J L Ortiz
K G McPeek
 9/5
40
★★★☆☆
58.1
 Top Pick
3 Card Man
F Prat
C C Brown
 5/2
23
★★★☆☆
53.4
 Value Play
2 Blessed Flyer
B J Hernandez, Jr.
M A Tomlinson
 7/2
12
★★★☆☆
47.5
 Longshot
7 Staunch
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 5/1
9
★★★☆☆
45.5
  
6 Jas
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
5 Very Gifted
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 20/1
4
★★☆☆☆
39.5
  
8 Never a Doubt
J Alvarado
C A David
 20/1
4
★★☆☆☆
37.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Mystik Bayou
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K G McPeek
40
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Card Man
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.4
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Blessed Flyer
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.5
Post · Horse
7
Staunch
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.5
Post · Horse
6
Jas
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
5
Very Gifted
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.5
Post · Horse
8
Never a Doubt
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
C A David
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 11
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:55 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The nightcap features a contentious one-turn mile where #3 Monnie attempts to parlay recent Churchill runner-up form into a win against last-out winner #5 Fools Rush In and class-dropping #4 Automatic Press.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 21.5%
Price horse: Fools Rush In (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Monnie —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 15/1
22
★★★☆☆
58.3
 Top Pick
5 Fools Rush In —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 3/1
19
★★★☆☆
57.1
 Value Play
1 Fullback —
T Gaffalione
W I Mott
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
53.3
  
4 Automatic Press —
R A Vazquez
J K Sweezey
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.2
 Longshot
12 Better Quality —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
7 Reinforcement —
J Alvarado
R Moquett
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.1
  
6 Runnin Out of Time —
R Bejarano
B Baffert
 4/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.7
  
9 Ramp In —
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.9
  
13 Shacklebolt —
Y Ortiz, Jr.
E G Harty
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.7
  
11 Taxi —
A Cedillo
R L Morse
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
2 Arcoven —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.7
  
10 Bombarino —
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Monnie
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Fools Rush In
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
Post · Horse
1
Fullback
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
W I Mott
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.3
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Automatic Press
—
Jockey
R A Vazquez
Trainer
J K Sweezey
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
12
Better Quality
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
7
Reinforcement
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Moquett
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.1
Post · Horse
6
Runnin Out of Time
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
B Baffert
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.7
Post · Horse
9
Ramp In
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.9
Post · Horse
13
Shacklebolt
—
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
E G Harty
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.7
Post · Horse
11
Taxi
—
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R L Morse
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
Post · Horse
2
Arcoven
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.7
Post · Horse
10
Bombarino
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
  Go Pro