Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Data-driven full-card analysis with compact access to every race on the board.

2026-10-28 Morning Card
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Card signals
Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R2
Chambersville #2
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Ravens Dream #6
12/1 ML
Deepest field
R8
15 runners
15
Pace shape
R3
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents a competitive nine-race Wednesday program anchored by a pair of marathon turf allowances and deep maiden sprints on the main track. Short-priced runners look legitimately vulnerable in the middle sequences, particularly in Race 3 and Race 5, where class transitions and contentious pace dynamics create prime upset opportunities. The turf marathons in Races 2 and 5 offer distinct betting profiles, with Race 2 featuring a standout favorite in Chambersville while Race 5 presents a wide-open tactical battle over eleven furlongs. Strategic value throughout the card centers on sharp-working second-tier contenders cutting back in sprint distances.
Races 9 Status Live View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #9 Discotheque, #5 Poppa Echo, #7 Six String Prince.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $62,500
Purse$78,000
Claiming$62,500
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This $62,500 sprint claimer goes through #9 Discotheque, who brings high-level Saratoga form but must prove he can carry his speed seven panels from the outside post against the pressing presence of #1 Risk It.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
2
P
3
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Poppa Echo, #7 Six String Prince and #9 Discotheque all go for the lead. #2 Sleepingonfreedom and #1 Risk It drop to the back. 579483612
  2. Middle around the turn #5 Poppa Echo, #7 Six String Prince and #9 Discotheque keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 579648312
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Ravens Dream has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Risk It and #2 Sleepingonfreedom. Tiring: #5 Poppa Echo, #7 Six String Prince and #9 Discotheque. 612348579

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.3%
Price horse: Risk It (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Discotheque E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
J K Sweezey
 9/5
26
★★★★☆
76.1
 Top Pick
1 Risk It P Fits
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 4/1
15
★★★★☆
71.6
 Value Play
8 Attersee EP Neutral
E Morales
J Blair
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
69.8
  
2 Sleepingonfreedom P Fits
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 5/1
11
★★★★☆
68.5
  
6 Ravens Dream P Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
8
★★★★☆
66.2
 Longshot
4 Feral EP Neutral
B Curtis
M A Tomlinson
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
66.0
  
3 One More Freud —
T Gaffalione
R B Hess, Jr.
 6/1
7
★★★★☆
65.2
  
5 Poppa Echo E Misfit
F Arrieta
J K Sweezey
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
64.7
  
7 Six String Prince E Misfit
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 20/1
5
★★★★☆
61.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Discotheque
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J K Sweezey
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.1
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Risk It
P Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.6
Post · Horse
8
Attersee
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Blair
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse
2
Sleepingonfreedom
P Fits
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Ravens Dream
P Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse
4
Feral
EP Neutral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.0
Post · Horse
3
One More Freud
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
R B Hess, Jr.
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse
5
Poppa Echo
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
J K Sweezey
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse
7
Six String Prince
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge. No true front-runner here; the lone presser is likely to inherit the lead.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$134,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 3/8 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:29 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Eleven furlongs on the turf demands stamina, and while #2 Chambersville holds a commanding numerical edge, he must navigate an honest pace set by forwardly placed rivals like #1 Rapoport.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
0
EP
1
P
2
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Catch the Breeze should break on top. 6471325
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Catch the Breeze sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 6471325
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Catch the Breeze is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 6471325

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 33.2%
Price horse: Rapoport (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Chambersville S Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
K G McPeek
 9/5
33
★★★★☆
74.0
 Top Pick
1 Rapoport S Neutral
J L Ortiz
M J Maker
 8/1
17
★★★★☆
68.3
 Value Play
3 Esmark S Neutral
L Saez
V H Oliver
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
67.6
  
6 Catch the Breeze EP Fits
J R Velazquez
M W McCarthy
 5/1
12
★★★★☆
65.5
 Longshot
4 The Hidden Chamber P Neutral
T Gaffalione
K Danner
 6/1
11
★★★★☆
64.6
  
5 Clyde's Got a Gun S Neutral
J Graham
H Pitts
 4/1
7
★★★★☆
60.3
  
7 Hard as Life P Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
M Nihei
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Chambersville
S Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
33
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.0
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Rapoport
S Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M J Maker
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse
3
Esmark
S Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
V H Oliver
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Catch the Breeze
EP Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M W McCarthy
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.5
Post · Horse
4
The Hidden Chamber
P Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
K Danner
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse
5
Clyde's Got a Gun
S Neutral
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
H Pitts
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
7
Hard as Life
P Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
M Nihei
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #7 Flume's Vino, #5 Macchiato.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$67,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:58 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A wide-open maiden special weight where #4 Guns Allowed returns from an extended layoff boasting fast morning works, but he faces immediate pressure from experienced dirt route competitors like #8 Private Show and #6 Harbor Prince.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
2
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Macchiato and #7 Flume's Vino go for the lead together. #9 Max Is Him and #6 Harbor Prince drop to the back. 571823469
  2. Middle around the turn #5 Macchiato and #7 Flume's Vino keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 571823469
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 It's Final has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Ingleborough, #4 Guns Allowed and #1 Titan King. Tiring: #8 Private Show, #5 Macchiato and #7 Flume's Vino. 234169857

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.5%
Price horse: Private Show (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Guns Allowed S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 5/2
18
★★★☆☆
57.8
 Top Pick
8 Private Show EP Neutral
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 15/1
17
★★★☆☆
57.5
 Value Play
6 Harbor Prince S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
T Drury, Jr.
 8/1
14
★★★☆☆
56.0
 Longshot
3 Ingleborough P Fits
L Machado
D L Romans
 7/2
12
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
2 It's Final P Fits
R Bejarano
D J Habeeb
 15/1
9
★★★☆☆
52.2
  
7 Flume's Vino E Misfit
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
51.8
  
5 Macchiato E Misfit
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 7/2
9
★★★☆☆
51.7
  
9 Max Is Him S Fits
G Corrales
D L Romans
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.5
  
1 Titan King EP Neutral
E Morales
R Moquett
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Guns Allowed
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Private Show
EP Neutral
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Harbor Prince
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
3
Ingleborough
P Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D L Romans
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
2
It's Final
P Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D J Habeeb
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
7
Flume's Vino
E Misfit
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.8
Post · Horse
5
Macchiato
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
Post · Horse
9
Max Is Him
S Fits
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
1
Titan King
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
R Moquett
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$57,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:27 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed dominates this six-furlong maiden dash, where #9 Spill the Sugar looks to build on her runner-up finish beneath the Twin Spires, but wide-drawn #11 Enticing Moves has the tactical foot to challenge late.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Loves to Fish should break on top. #7 Grant's Gretchen drops to the back. 4310611215897
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 4310621115987
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Loves to Fish is still in front. Moving forward: #2 Statutory, #5 Pulling Threads and #9 Spill the Sugar. 4310265911178

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.2%
Price horse: Enticing Moves (8/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Spill the Sugar P Neutral
J L Ortiz
K LaRose
 2/1
24
★★★☆☆
59.4
 Top Pick
11 Enticing Moves —
J A Torres
M A Tomlinson
 8/1
15
★★★☆☆
55.2
 Value Play
10 Triple Moon EP Fits
L Machado
A M West
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
53.1
  
5 Pulling Threads P Neutral
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 9/2
10
★★★☆☆
51.7
  
3 Preach Tewmey Now EP Fits
L A Hernandez
I Bahena
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.4
 Longshot
6 Riyah Al Nil —
A Concepcion
M A Tomlinson
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.1
  
7 Grant's Gretchen S Neutral
E Morales
F Bogle
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.1
  
2 Statutory P Neutral
F Arrieta
P D'Amato
 7/2
7
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
1 Super Pachi —
C Jimenez
R J Carpio
 50/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
4 Loves to Fish E Neutral
C A Torres
A Shorter
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.4
  
8 Funny Twist —
O Mojica
K Martinez
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Spill the Sugar
P Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K LaRose
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Enticing Moves
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse
10
Triple Moon
EP Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
A M West
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse
5
Pulling Threads
P Neutral
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Preach Tewmey Now
EP Fits
Jockey
L A Hernandez
Trainer
I Bahena
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
6
Riyah Al Nil
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.1
Post · Horse
7
Grant's Gretchen
S Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
F Bogle
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.1
Post · Horse
2
Statutory
P Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
P D'Amato
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
1
Super Pachi
—
Jockey
C Jimenez
Trainer
R J Carpio
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
4
Loves to Fish
E Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
A Shorter
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.4
Post · Horse
8
Funny Twist
—
Jockey
O Mojica
Trainer
K Martinez
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #6 Dawn Dragon, #7 Caragogo.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 3/8 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:57 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The second three-turn marathon of the card features #4 Greystone stretching his gaudy summer figures to 11 furlongs, but the stamina and stalking power of #8 Vaporetti and #1 My Boy Tony make this an intense tactical duel.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
1
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #7 Caragogo and #6 Dawn Dragon go for the lead together. #8 Vaporetti and #4 Greystone drop to the back. 76231548
  2. Middle around the turn #7 Caragogo and #6 Dawn Dragon keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 76231548
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Sav'n Money has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 My Boy Tony, #5 Lahainaluna and #4 Greystone. Tiring: #6 Dawn Dragon and #7 Caragogo. 32154867

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.3%
Price horse: Vaporetti (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Greystone S Fits
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 2/1
19
★★★★☆
69.6
 Top Pick
8 Vaporetti S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
68.0
 Value Play
1 My Boy Tony S Fits
L Saez
E Kenneally
 8/1
16
★★★★☆
68.0
 Longshot
5 Lahainaluna S Fits
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 7/2
13
★★★★☆
66.4
  
2 Lazlo EP Neutral
B Curtis
M J Maker
 10/1
13
★★★★☆
66.3
  
6 Dawn Dragon E Misfit
A Concepcion
R Mott
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
62.2
  
3 Sav'n Money P Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
W M Catalano
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
62.1
  
7 Caragogo E Misfit
E Morales
G R Arnold II
 6/1
6
★★★★☆
60.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Greystone
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Vaporetti
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse Longshot
1
My Boy Tony
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
E Kenneally
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse
5
Lahainaluna
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse
2
Lazlo
EP Neutral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M J Maker
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse
6
Dawn Dragon
E Misfit
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
R Mott
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
3
Sav'n Money
P Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
W M Catalano
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
7
Caragogo
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G R Arnold II
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Lockdownyourtown, #7 Epic Prankster.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $30,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won Three Races
Purse$62,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:26 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Proven local form highlights this $30,000 claiming sprint, as #4 Lockdownyourtown seeks to repeat his dominant summer efforts while fending off the sharp finishing kick of #3 Noroomformischief.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #7 Epic Prankster and #4 Lockdownyourtown go for the lead together. #3 Noroomformischief and #6 Lindy Can drop to the back. 7452163
  2. Middle around the turn #7 Epic Prankster and #4 Lockdownyourtown keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 7452163
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Final Shipman has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 She's Not a Joke, #3 Noroomformischief and #6 Lindy Can. Tiring: #7 Epic Prankster and #4 Lockdownyourtown. 2153674

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 27.0%
Price horse: Noroomformischief (5/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Lockdownyourtown E Misfit
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 8/5
27
★★★★☆
66.7
 Top Pick
3 Noroomformischief S Fits
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 5/2
19
★★★★☆
63.5
 Value Play
7 Epic Prankster E Misfit
M Fernandez
J M Watkins
 6/1
17
★★★★☆
62.8
  
1 She's Not a Joke P Fits
F Arrieta
M Williams
 10/1
14
★★★★☆
61.1
  
2 Final Shipman P Fits
J A Torres
S E Shaffer
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
56.8
 Longshot
6 Lindy Can P Fits
S Pauly
D Hancock
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
5 Critikal Sense EP Neutral
J Elliott
E G Harty
 7/2
7
★★★☆☆
55.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Lockdownyourtown
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
27
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Noroomformischief
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
7
Epic Prankster
E Misfit
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
J M Watkins
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
1
She's Not a Joke
P Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Williams
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Final Shipman
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
S E Shaffer
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.8
Post · Horse
6
Lindy Can
P Fits
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
D Hancock
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
5
Critikal Sense
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
E G Harty
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #3 Aegis, #5 Rules and Regs.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:55 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The extended sprint distance of seven furlongs tests maiden fillies here, where #3 Aegis returns off a summer freshening with back class against a race-fit rival in #8 Love Divine.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
0
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Aegis and #5 Rules and Regs go for the lead together. #2 Magic Woman and #1 Shewontbudge drop to the back. 358946712
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Aegis and #5 Rules and Regs keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 358941672
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #8 Love Divine has taken over in front. Moving forward: #9 Cartier Gold, #1 Shewontbudge and #2 Magic Woman. Tiring: #3 Aegis and #5 Rules and Regs. 891235467

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 28.5%
Price horse: Love Divine (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Aegis E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 5/2
28
★★★★☆
67.4
 Top Pick
8 Love Divine EP Neutral
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
61.5
 Value Play
2 Magic Woman S Fits
J Alvarado
R Medina
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
61.5
  
5 Rules and Regs E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 3/1
12
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
1 Shewontbudge S Fits
W A Rodriguez
J T Spicer
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.2
 Longshot
4 Dancin in Old Town —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 4/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.2
  
9 Cartier Gold EP Neutral
L Saez
J C Servis
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
7 M's Mabee Baby —
E Morales
J Blair
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
6 Get Into It —
A Espinoza
R C Bryner
 15/1
1
★★★☆☆
41.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Aegis
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Love Divine
EP Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
2
Magic Woman
S Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Medina
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
5
Rules and Regs
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Shewontbudge
S Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
J T Spicer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
4
Dancin in Old Town
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
9
Cartier Gold
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J C Servis
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
7
M's Mabee Baby
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Blair
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
6
Get Into It
—
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
R C Bryner
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #11 Twilight Delight, #5 Ortley Avenue, #8 Our Starry Night.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$134,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:25 PM ET
Field Size15
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A massive 15-horse turf sprint where rail-skimming favorite #1 Initialize brings formidable 100+ speed figures, but must avoid getting trapped along the hedge by a wall of outside closers headed by #11 Twilight Delight.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
4
P
3
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Ortley Avenue, #8 Our Starry Night and #9 Moon Sniper all go for the lead. #4 Corona de Oro and #3 Sprint Out Pass drop to the back. 589121121071514161334
  2. Middle around the turn #5 Ortley Avenue, #8 Our Starry Night and #9 Moon Sniper keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 589121112710151461334
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Initialize has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Sprint Out Pass, #6 Smokey Smokey and #4 Corona de Oro. Tiring: #5 Ortley Avenue, #8 Our Starry Night and #9 Moon Sniper. 173641321015145891211

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 22.7%
Price horse: Twilight Delight (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Initialize P Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
M J Maker
 7/2
23
★★★★☆
76.8
 Top Pick
11 Twilight Delight E Misfit
J L Ortiz
D Leitch
 6/1
11
★★★★☆
70.5
 Value Play
5 Ortley Avenue E Misfit
T Gaffalione
G Weaver
 9/2
10
★★★★☆
70.2
  
3 Sprint Out Pass S Fits
O Mojica
K Martinez
 30/1
7
★★★★☆
67.2
 Longshot
7 Utopian —
A Beschizza
J M Camejo
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
66.2
  
6 Smokey Smokey P Fits
J A Torres
R Mott
 6/1
6
★★★★☆
65.6
  
8 Our Starry Night E Misfit
M Gutierrez
P A Bauer
 8/1
6
★★★★☆
65.1
  
12 Mountain Bear E Misfit
G Corrales
J K Sweezey
 8/1
5
★★★★☆
63.4
  
2 Bal a Kazoo EP Neutral
L Machado
R M Gorham
 30/1
5
★★★★☆
63.3
  
15 Cheval de Guerre EP Neutral
L Saez
E Kenneally
 10/1
4
★★★★☆
62.7
  
9 Moon Sniper E Misfit
L Saez
D Miller
 15/1
4
★★★★☆
61.7
  
4 Corona de Oro S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 15/1
4
★★★★☆
61.5
  
10 Ganaas EP Neutral
E Morales
A McKeever
 10/1
4
★★★★☆
61.3
  
14 B D Valeski EP Neutral
Y Ortiz, Jr.
G D Foley
 15/1
3
★★★★☆
60.4
  
13 The Minkster P Fits
J A Torres
C Caramori
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
58.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Initialize
P Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
M J Maker
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.8
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Twilight Delight
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
D Leitch
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.5
Post · Horse
5
Ortley Avenue
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
G Weaver
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Sprint Out Pass
S Fits
Jockey
O Mojica
Trainer
K Martinez
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.2
Post · Horse
7
Utopian
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J M Camejo
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse
6
Smokey Smokey
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
8
Our Starry Night
E Misfit
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P A Bauer
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.1
Post · Horse
12
Mountain Bear
E Misfit
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
2
Bal a Kazoo
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
R M Gorham
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
Post · Horse
15
Cheval de Guerre
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
E Kenneally
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
9
Moon Sniper
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
D Miller
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse
4
Corona de Oro
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
10
Ganaas
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
A McKeever
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse
14
B D Valeski
EP Neutral
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
G D Foley
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
13
The Minkster
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Caramori
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 15-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #10 Diamondintherough, #8 Sharp Mindset, #3 Mo Biscuit.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:55 PM ET
Field Size15
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The nightcap is a wide-open 15-horse maiden dash where outside runners #14 Flaming Mama and #15 Givemethebeat must overcome difficult wide draws against an unpredictable group of dirt sprinters.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
2
P
2
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #10 Diamondintherough, #12 Wado Wave and #8 Sharp Mindset all go for the lead. #9 Action Player and #1 Market Strategy drop to the back. 101283515621311471419
  2. Middle around the turn #10 Diamondintherough, #12 Wado Wave and #8 Sharp Mindset keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 101283515627131141419
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #15 Givemethebeat is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #1 Market Strategy, #7 Nyad and #14 Flaming Mama. Tiring: #6 Once Upon a Time, #10 Diamondintherough and #8 Sharp Mindset. 151721491146131081235

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 14.1%
Price horse: Givemethebeat (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
14 Flaming Mama P Fits
L Saez
S Sands
 10/1
14
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Top Pick
15 Givemethebeat —
T Gaffalione
J A Hancock
 8/1
13
★★★☆☆
54.0
 Value Play
10 Diamondintherough E Misfit
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.1
  
8 Sharp Mindset E Misfit
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
51.7
  
7 Nyad P Fits
A Concepcion
C Milligan
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
50.1
  
2 Perpetua —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
T Drury, Jr.
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
3 Mo Biscuit E Misfit
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.5
  
6 Once Upon a Time EP Neutral
S Pauly
M Dalton
 5/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
12 Wado Wave E Misfit
C A Torres
J Dimmett
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
11 Strawberry Float —
Y L Correa
C W Axmaker
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.1
 Longshot
1 Market Strategy S Fits
J A Torres
M A Tomlinson
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.5
  
4 No Mo Rags —
W Antongeorgi III
J Tooley
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.5
  
13 Buckeye Favorite EP Neutral
C Jimenez
R Medina
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
5 Yasmin E Misfit
A Cedillo
R L Morse
 9/2
3
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
9 Action Player S Fits
B Bays
M Norris
 50/1
2
★★☆☆☆
35.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
14
Flaming Mama
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S Sands
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse Value Play
15
Givemethebeat
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J A Hancock
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.0
Post · Horse
10
Diamondintherough
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.1
Post · Horse
8
Sharp Mindset
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
Post · Horse
7
Nyad
P Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
C Milligan
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.1
Post · Horse
2
Perpetua
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
3
Mo Biscuit
E Misfit
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.5
Post · Horse
6
Once Upon a Time
EP Neutral
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
M Dalton
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
12
Wado Wave
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
J Dimmett
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Strawberry Float
—
Jockey
Y L Correa
Trainer
C W Axmaker
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.1
Post · Horse
1
Market Strategy
S Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.5
Post · Horse
4
No Mo Rags
—
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
J Tooley
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.5
Post · Horse
13
Buckeye Favorite
EP Neutral
Jockey
C Jimenez
Trainer
R Medina
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
5
Yasmin
E Misfit
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R L Morse
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
9
Action Player
S Fits
Jockey
B Bays
Trainer
M Norris
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 15-horse field.
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