Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 3.

2026-10-29 Race 3 Morning Card
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This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R3
Ruiva #6
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Dark Force #5
7/2 ML
Deepest field
R10
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R4
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Thursday's ten-race program at Churchill Downs offers a balanced mix of dirt sprints, testing two-turn routes, and competitive turf dashes. The early sequence is highlighted by heavy favorite #6 Ruiva in Race 3, who brings strong graded-stakes experience to the five-furlong turf sprint. Middle-card turf action features a marathon 1 3/8-mile test in Race 6 where tactical positioning will be paramount, while late-card dirt maiden sprints in Races 8 and 10 feature wide-open fields that demand selective exotic structuring.
Races 10 Status Live View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #6 Bright Skittle, #4 Quentin B, #1 Bemis.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$72,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Trainer Bill Mott sends out #6 Bright Skittle off a layoff, and the central question is whether this lightly raced colt can duplicate his 95 speed figure from Keeneland on dirt or if second-off-the-shelf runner #4 Quentin B can run him down late.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Bemis, #6 Bright Skittle and #4 Quentin B all go for the lead. #2 Circle Me drops to the back. 164352
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Bemis, #6 Bright Skittle and #4 Quentin B keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 164235
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Circle Me has taken over in front. Tiring: #1 Bemis, #6 Bright Skittle and #4 Quentin B. 235164

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 31.3%
Price horse: Quentin B (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Bright Skittle E Misfit
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 8/5
31
★★★☆☆
58.2
 Top Pick
4 Quentin B E Misfit
G Corrales
D L Romans
 5/2
20
★★★☆☆
54.3
 Value Play
1 Bemis E Misfit
F Arrieta
L Schultz
 5/1
19
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
2 Circle Me P Fits
C A Torres
T S Wismer
 6/1
17
★★★☆☆
52.8
  
5 Dark Force —
L Saez
G Weaver
 7/2
8
★★★☆☆
46.2
 Longshot
3 Mr. Tallymon
M Fernandez
D L Anderson
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Bright Skittle
E Misfit
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
31
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Quentin B
E Misfit
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
1
Bemis
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
L Schultz
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
Post · Horse
2
Circle Me
P Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
T S Wismer
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.8
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Dark Force
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G Weaver
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
3
Mr. Tallymon
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
D L Anderson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance / Claiming
Purse$71,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:29 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
David Jacobson's #6 Taqdeer ships in fresh off a decisive score at Penn National with a field-best 93 speed figure, but must prove his form holds against Churchill regulars like #2 Swiftwind and #4 Margoinabubblebath.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
4
P
0
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Margoinabubblebath should break on top. 431526
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 431526
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Margoinabubblebath is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 431652

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.9%
Price horse: Swiftwind (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Taqdeer —
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 4/1
24
★★★★☆
71.1
 Top Pick
2 Swiftwind EP Fits
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
19
★★★★☆
69.0
 Value Play
4 Margoinabubblebath E Neutral
A Concepcion
G Garcia
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
67.5
  
3 Up the Creek EP Fits
F Arrieta
M Williams
 9/5
14
★★★★☆
66.8
  
5 Spencerian EP Fits
B Curtis
A Shorter
 5/1
14
★★★★☆
66.4
  
1 Musical Prayer EP Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
66.2
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Taqdeer
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.1
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Swiftwind
EP Fits
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse
4
Margoinabubblebath
E Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
G Garcia
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
3
Up the Creek
EP Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Williams
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse
5
Spencerian
EP Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Musical Prayer
EP Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #6 Ruiva, #5 Allura, #4 Nessy.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming, Or Starter On The Turf Allowed 2 Lbs
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:58 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Wesley Ward trainee #6 Ruiva towers over this turf sprint on back class and speed figures, but the primary test is whether she can shake off early pressure from #5 Allura and #8 Cactus Closer on the sharp five-furlong layout.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
1
P
0
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Nessy, #5 Allura and #6 Ruiva all go for the lead. 45628371
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Nessy, #5 Allura and #6 Ruiva keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 45628371
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #7 Reza is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #3 Trim Castle. Tiring: #4 Nessy, #5 Allura and #6 Ruiva. 73145628

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 48.5%
Price horse: Allura (8/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Ruiva E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
W A Ward
 4/5
48
★★★★☆
74.2
 Top Pick
5 Allura E Misfit
T Gaffalione
K Danner
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
63.0
 Value Play
4 Nessy E Misfit
G Corrales
N R Rivera
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
60.3
 Longshot
8 Cactus Closer E Misfit
J Alvarado
D L Romans
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.8
  
7 Reza —
J L Ortiz
T Moubarak
 7/2
7
★★★☆☆
57.4
  
3 Trim Castle EP Neutral
E Morales
J Ennis
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.5
  
1 Into Music —
F H Da Silva
T Birdwell
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.5
  
2 Skepticism E Misfit
L Saez
M E Lauer
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
52.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Ruiva
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
W A Ward
48
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.2
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Allura
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
K Danner
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Nessy
E Misfit
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
N R Rivera
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
8
Cactus Closer
E Misfit
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
D L Romans
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.8
Post · Horse
7
Reza
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
T Moubarak
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse
3
Trim Castle
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Ennis
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse
1
Into Music
—
Jockey
F H Da Silva
Trainer
T Birdwell
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.5
Post · Horse
2
Skepticism
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M E Lauer
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Mustang Lady, #5 Will Believe.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $30,000
Purse$62,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:27 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A competitive $30,000 claiming route brings together #6 Bamtwentyklater and #4 Mustang Lady, where the key puzzle is whether Bamtwentyklater can overcome an outside draw to outfinish a pace-pressing Asmussen trainee.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
2
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Will Believe and #4 Mustang Lady go for the lead together. 5427361
  2. Middle around the turn #5 Will Believe and #4 Mustang Lady keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 5427361
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Quinn's Promise has taken over in front. Moving forward: #6 Bamtwentyklater. Tiring: #5 Will Believe and #4 Mustang Lady. 3267154

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 18.5%
Price horse: Mustang Lady (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Bamtwentyklater P Fits
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 10/1
18
★★★★☆
61.1
 Top Pick
4 Mustang Lady E Misfit
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 10/1
18
★★★★☆
60.8
 Value Play
2 Watershed Moment EP Neutral
R Bejarano
R Medina
 9/5
16
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
3 Quinn's Promise P Fits
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 4/1
16
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
7 Getting After It EP Neutral
F Arrieta
M Puhich
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
57.1
 Longshot
1 French Mistress —
J A Torres
J A Hiles
 7/2
11
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
5 Will Believe E Misfit
J Loveberry
M E Lauer
 9/2
10
★★★☆☆
56.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Bamtwentyklater
P Fits
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Mustang Lady
E Misfit
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse
2
Watershed Moment
EP Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Medina
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
3
Quinn's Promise
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Getting After It
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Puhich
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
Post · Horse
1
French Mistress
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J A Hiles
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
5
Will Believe
E Misfit
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
M E Lauer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #9 Callie's Dance, #1 Bride.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:57 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
An unpredictable field of eleven two-year-old fillies stretches out to a mile, where morning-line favorite #7 Texas Dandelion must rebound from a poor showing to hold off the improving form of #8 Golden Sips.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
0
P
2
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Callie's Dance and #1 Bride go for the lead together. #11 Boss Lady Kar and #7 Texas Dandelion drop to the back. 9158234610711
  2. Middle around the turn #9 Callie's Dance and #1 Bride keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 9158231046711
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Amavida has taken over in front. Moving forward: #8 Golden Sips, #7 Texas Dandelion and #11 Boss Lady Kar. Tiring: #9 Callie's Dance and #1 Bride. 5871123461091

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.8%
Price horse: Texas Dandelion (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Golden Sips P Fits
G Corrales
N R Rivera
 6/1
17
★★★☆☆
51.4
 Top Pick
7 Texas Dandelion S Fits
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 5/2
15
★★★☆☆
50.5
 Value Play
11 Boss Lady Kar S Fits
A Beschizza
S J Cunningham
 4/1
15
★★★☆☆
50.2
  
2 Big Luz —
J L Ortiz
K G McPeek
 7/2
11
★★★☆☆
47.6
  
9 Callie's Dance E Misfit
A Cedillo
D G Heath
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
1 Bride E Misfit
M Fernandez
T D Vance
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.6
 Longshot
3 Higher Calling
J Loveberry
M E Lauer
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
6 Denial —
F Arrieta
B A Vanden Berg
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
4 Dream About —
J Elliott
A M Stall, Jr.
 20/1
4
★★☆☆☆
40.0
  
5 Amavida P Fits
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 20/1
4
★★☆☆☆
39.5
  
10 Aloha Magic —
D Grisales Rave
W M Catalano
 10/1
4
★★☆☆☆
39.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Golden Sips
P Fits
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
N R Rivera
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Texas Dandelion
S Fits
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
11
Boss Lady Kar
S Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
S J Cunningham
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse
2
Big Luz
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K G McPeek
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
9
Callie's Dance
E Misfit
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
D G Heath
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Bride
E Misfit
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
T D Vance
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.6
Post · Horse
3
Higher Calling
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
M E Lauer
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
6
Denial
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
4
Dream About
—
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 40.0
Post · Horse
5
Amavida
P Fits
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.5
Post · Horse
10
Aloha Magic
—
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
W M Catalano
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 3/8 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:26 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Thoroughbred stamina is on display at eleven furlongs over the lawn, where #1 Struck At Midnight must use his rail position to thwart a strong late challenge from Woodbine invader #3 Onehotmess and distance-proven #4 Paseo.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
2
P
0
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Marcinkowski should break on top. #7 Ring Rights and #5 Heart Spin drop to the back. 2163457
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 2163457
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Marcinkowski is still in front. Moving forward: #3 Onehotmess, #4 Paseo and #5 Heart Spin. 2613457

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.0%
Price horse: Onehotmess (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Struck At Midnight EP Fits
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 3/1
26
★★★★☆
68.5
 Top Pick
3 Onehotmess S Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
K Attard
 7/2
17
★★★★☆
65.1
 Value Play
6 Charm of Venice —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
64.2
  
4 Paseo S Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 2/1
14
★★★★☆
62.9
  
5 Heart Spin S Neutral
W A Rodriguez
A Navarrete
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
61.5
 Longshot
2 Marcinkowski EP Fits
L Saez
V H Oliver
 9/2
11
★★★★☆
61.3
  
7 Ring Rights S Neutral
S Pauly
B Knippenberg
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
54.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Struck At Midnight
EP Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Onehotmess
S Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
K Attard
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.1
Post · Horse
6
Charm of Venice
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
4
Paseo
S Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Heart Spin
S Neutral
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
A Navarrete
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
2
Marcinkowski
EP Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
V H Oliver
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse
7
Ring Rights
S Neutral
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
B Knippenberg
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #4 Stay for the Boom, #3 Guardian, #6 Trouble Ahead.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$58,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:55 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speedster #4 Stay for the Boom looks to capitalize on a class drop to $20,000 claiming, but faces an immediate challenge from stalking threat #3 Guardian, who was just a nose better over this track last out.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
0
P
3
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Guardian, #1 Malevaje and #4 Stay for the Boom all go for the lead. #5 Hesper and #8 Dr Fenn drop to the back. 31476285
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Guardian, #1 Malevaje and #4 Stay for the Boom keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 31476285
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 White Whale has taken over in front. Moving forward: #8 Dr Fenn and #5 Hesper. Tiring: #3 Guardian, #1 Malevaje and #4 Stay for the Boom. 28531476

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 28.9%
Price horse: Guardian (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Stay for the Boom E Misfit
L Saez
K LaRose
 9/5
29
★★★★☆
69.7
 Top Pick
3 Guardian E Misfit
T Gaffalione
E N Foster
 5/2
20
★★★★☆
66.5
 Value Play
2 White Whale P Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
W B Calhoun
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
64.0
  
5 Hesper P Fits
D Cannon
S A Kurtz
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
61.0
 Longshot
6 Trouble Ahead E Misfit
F Arrieta
C Milligan
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
60.9
  
7 Colonel Compton E Misfit
E Morales
G F House
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
8 Dr Fenn P Fits
D Sheehy
T D Vance
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
54.6
  
1 Malevaje E Misfit
J Meza
R J Carpio
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Stay for the Boom
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
K LaRose
29
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.7
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Guardian
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
E N Foster
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.5
Post · Horse
2
White Whale
P Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
W B Calhoun
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.0
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Hesper
P Fits
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
S A Kurtz
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
6
Trouble Ahead
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
C Milligan
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse
7
Colonel Compton
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G F House
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
8
Dr Fenn
P Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
T D Vance
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.6
Post · Horse
1
Malevaje
E Misfit
Jockey
J Meza
Trainer
R J Carpio
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:25 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The specialist seven-furlong distance tests twelve maidens, where #4 Beijing looks to break through after earning a 91 speed figure, but must withstand a bid from second-time starter #3 We Be Mischief.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.2%
Price horse: We Be Mischief (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Beijing S —
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 8/1
23
★★★★☆
65.2
 Top Pick
3 We Be Mischief —
I Ortiz, Jr.
S M Asmussen
 4/1
18
★★★★☆
62.8
 Value Play
7 Mojacar S —
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 7/2
16
★★★★☆
62.0
  
5 Nomolimbo P —
F Arrieta
D Miller
 15/1
12
★★★☆☆
59.8
 Longshot
11 Stelvio Pass —
L Machado
B Colebrook
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
10 Alworth —
L Saez
C Davis
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
54.7
  
2 Good Company —
M Gutierrez
B A Lynch
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
6 Magic Moose —
A Cedillo
M Simms, Jr.
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
1 Cowboys Time —
T Gaffalione
D L Romans
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
47.1
  
12 Positano John —
A Concepcion
P A Bauer
 5/1
2
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
8 Navigate P —
D Sheehy
M E Lauer
 30/1
1
★★★☆☆
40.9
  
9 Happy Mischief —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 20/1
1
★★☆☆☆
39.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Beijing
S —
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse Value Play
3
We Be Mischief
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
S M Asmussen
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
7
Mojacar
S —
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Nomolimbo
P —
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D Miller
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
11
Stelvio Pass
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
10
Alworth
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.7
Post · Horse
2
Good Company
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B A Lynch
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
6
Magic Moose
—
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
M Simms, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
1
Cowboys Time
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D L Romans
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.1
Post · Horse
12
Positano John
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
P A Bauer
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
8
Navigate
P —
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M E Lauer
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.9
Post · Horse
9
Happy Mischief
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #7 Mobula, #4 Wisconsin Gal, #5 Dream On Stormy.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$134,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:55 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed meets stamina in this 5 1/2-furlong turf allowance, where woodbine invader #7 Mobula and turf sprint specialist #8 Grade A square off in a race that hinges on which runner can hold position turning for home.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Spring Dancer, #4 Wisconsin Gal and #5 Dream On Stormy all go for the lead. #6 Emoji and #8 Grade A drop to the back. 14572386
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Spring Dancer, #4 Wisconsin Gal and #5 Dream On Stormy keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 14573286
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Social Belle has taken over in front. Moving forward: #6 Emoji and #8 Grade A. Tiring: #1 Spring Dancer, #4 Wisconsin Gal and #5 Dream On Stormy. 36821457

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 20.9%
Price horse: Mobula (8/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Grade A P Fits
J Rosado
J O'Dwyer
 5/2
21
★★★★☆
68.3
 Top Pick
7 Mobula E Misfit
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 8/5
19
★★★★☆
67.5
 Value Play
4 Wisconsin Gal E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
P Capuano
 10/1
17
★★★★☆
66.4
  
5 Dream On Stormy E Misfit
R Bejarano
G Esquivel
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
62.6
 Longshot
3 Social Belle P Fits
W A Rodriguez
P H Lobo
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
62.1
  
1 Spring Dancer E Misfit
F Arrieta
R L Morse
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
61.6
  
2 J Z's Last Schance EP Neutral
D Grisales Rave
G Esquivel
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
59.1
  
6 Emoji S Fits
E Morales
L Hendrickson
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Grade A
P Fits
Jockey
J Rosado
Trainer
J O'Dwyer
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Mobula
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
4
Wisconsin Gal
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
P Capuano
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Dream On Stormy
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
G Esquivel
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
3
Social Belle
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
P H Lobo
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
1
Spring Dancer
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
R L Morse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.6
Post · Horse
2
J Z's Last Schance
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
G Esquivel
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse
6
Emoji
S Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
L Hendrickson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #16 Crazy Diamond, #3 Mayweather.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:24 PM ET
Field Size16
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A massive field of sixteen maiden sprinters closes out the card, where #16 Crazy Diamond must negotiate an extreme outside starting post to outfinish experienced rail-runner #1 Dixie Devil.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
4
P
3
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #16 Crazy Diamond and #3 Mayweather go for the lead together. 16311347911102128141556
  2. Middle around the turn #16 Crazy Diamond and #3 Mayweather keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 16311347915561110212814
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Dixie Devil has taken over in front. Moving forward: #13 Major Mack, #4 Himothy and #7 He Has Game. Tiring: #16 Crazy Diamond and #3 Mayweather. 11347159561116310212814

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 15.3%
Price horse: Dixie Devil (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
16 Crazy Diamond E Misfit
A Cedillo
L Schultz
 9/2
15
★★★☆☆
58.5
 Top Pick
1 Dixie Devil EP Neutral
I Moncada
T Humphries
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.7
 Value Play
15 Melody Man P Fits
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
55.3
  
13 Major Mack EP Neutral
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Longshot
4 Himothy EP Neutral
T Gaffalione
R Moquett
 3/1
8
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
12 Wavefront
J L Ortiz
A Claire
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
52.2
  
3 Mayweather E Misfit
Y Ortiz, Jr.
M W McCarthy
 5/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.8
  
6 Berniedott P Fits
W A Rodriguez
B L King
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.3
  
9 King of Heat —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
49.7
  
2 Elvis Tony —
L Saez
B A Lynch
 9/2
5
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
11 Amalgamate —
F Arrieta
A T Quartarolo
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
5 Premiere Dancer P Fits
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.9
  
10 Task Force O —
G Corrales
D L Romans
 10/1
2
★★★☆☆
43.1
  
14 Pick a Switch
L Machado
D Miller
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.3
  
8 Pargo —
D Grisales Rave
W M Catalano
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.0
  
7 He Has Game EP Neutral
L Fuenmayor
J P DiVito
 30/1
1
★★☆☆☆
38.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
16
Crazy Diamond
E Misfit
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
L Schultz
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Dixie Devil
EP Neutral
Jockey
I Moncada
Trainer
T Humphries
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
15
Melody Man
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.3
Post · Horse Longshot
13
Major Mack
EP Neutral
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
4
Himothy
EP Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
R Moquett
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
12
Wavefront
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
A Claire
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
3
Mayweather
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
M W McCarthy
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.8
Post · Horse
6
Berniedott
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
B L King
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.3
Post · Horse
9
King of Heat
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.7
Post · Horse
2
Elvis Tony
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B A Lynch
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
11
Amalgamate
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
A T Quartarolo
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
5
Premiere Dancer
P Fits
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
10
Task Force O
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.1
Post · Horse
14
Pick a Switch
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D Miller
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.3
Post · Horse
8
Pargo
—
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
W M Catalano
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.0
Post · Horse
7
He Has Game
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
J P DiVito
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro