Curated Betting Card

Churchill Downs

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 3.

2026-11-01 Race 3 Morning Card
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This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Churchill Downs · full board
Strongest play
R3
Love a Warrior #8
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Ultimit Warrior #6
8/1 ML
Deepest field
R6
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R4
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Churchill Downs presents a balanced nine-race program featuring competitive maiden sprints, productive claiming tilts, and wide-open turf affairs. The card is anchored by standout juvenile turf runners in Race 3 and Race 9, where short-priced contenders bring proven form against lightly raced fields. Value opportunities emerge primarily in middle-distance dirt races and full-field turf tests, where pace pressure is projected to compromise vulnerable front-runners.
Races 9 Status Live View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old Weight, 119 Lbs
Purse$72,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Weight119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 119 lbs
Storyline
Experienced juvenile #2 Soap Note enters with a class and figure edge over six rivals, but must hold off well-meant first-time starter #3 Just Plain Eugene, who brings sharp morning drills for trainer J.A. Hancock.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 34.2%
Price horse: Just Plain Eugene (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Soap Note —
M Gutierrez
D Stewart
 3/1
34
★★★☆☆
51.4
 Top Pick
3 Just Plain Eugene
F Arrieta
J A Hancock
 15/1
16
★★★☆☆
45.0
 Value Play
1 Glenadean —
K J Asmussen
R Moquett
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
42.1
  
7 Down Time —
A Cedillo
R L Morse
 2/1
11
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
4 Midnight Commander —
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 4/1
11
★★★☆☆
41.9
  
5 Jackies Einor —
T Gaffalione
J A Hancock
 5/1
11
★★★☆☆
41.7
  
6 Ultimit Warrior —
C A Emigh
B A Vanden Berg
 8/1
5
★★☆☆☆
35.6
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Soap Note
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Stewart
34
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Just Plain Eugene
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
J A Hancock
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
1
Glenadean
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
R Moquett
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.1
Post · Horse
7
Down Time
—
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R L Morse
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
4
Midnight Commander
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.9
Post · Horse
5
Jackies Einor
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J A Hancock
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.7
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Ultimit Warrior
—
Jockey
C A Emigh
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #1 Miss Clarke, #6 Diagram, #4 Ashkenazi.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$58,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:29 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies And Mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Claiming Price $20,000
Storyline
Rail-drawn #1 Miss Clarke brings two consecutive wins earlier this summer and strong form figures, but faces pressure from #3 Menkaure, who drops back to sprinting with Luis Saez aboard.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
0
P
1
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Ashkenazi, #7 Shanett and #1 Miss Clarke all go for the lead. #5 Miss Pierre and #3 Menkaure drop to the back. 4716235
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Ashkenazi, #7 Shanett and #1 Miss Clarke keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 4716235
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Menkaure has taken over in front. Moving forward: #2 Ashes and Diamonds and #5 Miss Pierre. Tiring: #4 Ashkenazi, #7 Shanett and #1 Miss Clarke. 3254716

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.3%
Price horse: Menkaure (2/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Miss Clarke E Misfit
L Machado
M Evans II
 5/1
24
★★★★☆
62.8
 Top Pick
3 Menkaure S Fits
L Saez
B A Vanden Berg
 2/1
14
★★★☆☆
58.2
 Value Play
2 Ashes and Diamonds P Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 3/1
14
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
5 Miss Pierre S Fits
C E Franca
F Nickel
 8/1
13
★★★☆☆
57.6
 Longshot
6 Diagram E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 7/2
13
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
4 Ashkenazi E Misfit
A Cedillo
R Hiles
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
7 Shanett E Misfit
M Fernandez
B A Vanden Berg
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
55.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Miss Clarke
E Misfit
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
M Evans II
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Menkaure
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
2
Ashes and Diamonds
P Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Miss Pierre
S Fits
Jockey
C E Franca
Trainer
F Nickel
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.6
Post · Horse
6
Diagram
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
4
Ashkenazi
E Misfit
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Hiles
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
7
Shanett
E Misfit
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #8 Love a Warrior, #1 Rupp, #3 Take Charge Beach.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:58 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens
Storyline
Heavy favorite #8 Love a Warrior ships in after consecutive runner-up finishes with 92 and 88 speed figures, leaving the field chasing unless Brad Cox trainee #1 Rupp takes a massive step forward on turf.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Rupp and #3 Take Charge Beach go for the lead together. 138952746
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Rupp, #3 Take Charge Beach and #8 Love a Warrior keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 138965274
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #9 Fire Marshal is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #6 Chief Ball. Tiring: #1 Rupp, #3 Take Charge Beach and #8 Love a Warrior. 965274138

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 45.8%
Price horse: Fire Marshal (10/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Love a Warrior E Misfit
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 4/5
46
★★★★☆
66.8
 Top Pick
9 Fire Marshal —
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 10/1
15
★★★☆☆
57.4
 Value Play
1 Rupp E Misfit
G Corrales
B H Cox
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
55.2
 Longshot
3 Take Charge Beach E Misfit
E Morales
G Garcia
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
5 Captivate —
V R Carrasco
B A Lynch
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
52.4
  
4 Kendom —
J D Ramos
L Hendrickson
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
7 Kalapaki Point
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
2 Epic Road —
M Gutierrez
P Matejka
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
6 Chief Ball P Fits
M Fernandez
J A Kelley
 50/1
1
★★☆☆☆
33.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Love a Warrior
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
46
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Fire Marshal
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Rupp
E Misfit
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
B H Cox
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse
3
Take Charge Beach
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G Garcia
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
5
Captivate
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
B A Lynch
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.4
Post · Horse
4
Kendom
—
Jockey
J D Ramos
Trainer
L Hendrickson
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
7
Kalapaki Point
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
2
Epic Road
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P Matejka
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
6
Chief Ball
P Fits
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
J A Kelley
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 33.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Mambo Man, #10 Army Run.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:27 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Two
Storyline
A wide-open field of ten two-year-olds steps out around one turn, where #5 Windsock stretches out after showing early foot and must stave off grinding stretch-runners #8 Concrete Overlay and #4 Mambo Man.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
3
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #10 Army Run and #4 Mambo Man go for the lead together. #8 Concrete Overlay and #7 Mo Reviews drop to the back. 10429531678
  2. Middle around the turn #10 Army Run and #4 Mambo Man keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 10429531678
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Power of Vino has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Faraz, #6 Asher Dasher and #7 Mo Reviews. Tiring: #2 Good Hand, #10 Army Run and #4 Mambo Man. 31962578104

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.3%
Price horse: Concrete Overlay (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Windsock EP Neutral
C A Torres
R Brisset
 7/2
18
★★★☆☆
47.6
 Top Pick
8 Concrete Overlay S Fits
A Concepcion
K Danner
 6/1
17
★★★☆☆
46.9
 Value Play
3 Power of Vino P Fits
E Esquivel
M Simms, Jr.
 5/1
11
★★★☆☆
43.6
  
4 Mambo Man E Misfit
M Fernandez
K A Fernandez
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
43.6
 Longshot
7 Mo Reviews S Fits
Y Ortiz, Jr.
A M Stall, Jr.
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
2 Good Hand EP Neutral
F Arrieta
R L Morse
 4/1
10
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
6 Asher Dasher P Fits
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
9 Captain Call —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
5
★★☆☆☆
36.4
  
1 Faraz P Fits
W A Rodriguez
A Cambray
 30/1
4
★★☆☆☆
35.0
  
10 Army Run E Misfit
E Morales
G Garcia
 20/1
3
★★☆☆☆
33.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Windsock
EP Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Concrete Overlay
S Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
K Danner
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.9
Post · Horse
3
Power of Vino
P Fits
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
M Simms, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Mambo Man
E Misfit
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
K A Fernandez
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse
7
Mo Reviews
S Fits
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
Post · Horse
2
Good Hand
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
R L Morse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
Post · Horse
6
Asher Dasher
P Fits
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
Post · Horse
9
Captain Call
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 36.4
Post · Horse
1
Faraz
P Fits
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
A Cambray
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 35.0
Post · Horse
10
Army Run
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G Garcia
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 33.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #8 Executor, #7 Greers Ferry, #6 Culprit.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $30,000
Purse$62,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:57 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Year Olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Three Year Olds and Upward. Claiming Price $30,000
Storyline
Speed figures separate the top pair in this two-turn test, where #8 Executor and #7 Greers Ferry look to capitalize on class drops while avoiding an early speed duel with front-runner #6 Culprit.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
2
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Surfin' M, #6 Culprit and #8 Executor all go for the lead. #1 Bagg O Time and #9 Strummin drop to the back. 46810752391
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Surfin' M, #6 Culprit and #8 Executor keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 46810752391
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Anglican has taken over in front. Moving forward: #9 Strummin, #1 Bagg O Time and #5 Triple Max. Tiring: #4 Surfin' M, #6 Culprit and #8 Executor. 39152468107

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.1%
Price horse: Greers Ferry (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Executor E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
R L Morse
 5/1
19
★★★★☆
65.0
 Top Pick
7 Greers Ferry E Misfit
J A Torres
C Santamaria
 3/1
18
★★★★☆
64.4
 Value Play
2 Final Thoughts EP Neutral
W A Rodriguez
C Williams
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
61.2
  
3 Anglican P Fits
D Sheehy
M Lovell
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
59.6
 Longshot
6 Culprit E Misfit
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 2/1
10
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
1 Bagg O Time S Fits
M Fernandez
T D Vance
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.9
  
4 Surfin' M E Misfit
E Morales
E W West
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.1
  
5 Triple Max EP Neutral
D Grisales Rave
N Alvarez
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
54.5
  
10 Impavido E Misfit
A Cedillo
D G Heath
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
54.2
  
9 Strummin P Fits
G Corrales
J K Sweezey
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Executor
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
R L Morse
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Greers Ferry
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Santamaria
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.4
Post · Horse
2
Final Thoughts
EP Neutral
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
C Williams
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Anglican
P Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M Lovell
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
6
Culprit
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse
1
Bagg O Time
S Fits
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
T D Vance
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
Post · Horse
4
Surfin' M
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
E W West
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
Post · Horse
5
Triple Max
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
N Alvarez
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
10
Impavido
E Misfit
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
D G Heath
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse
9
Strummin
P Fits
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/8 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:26 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies And Mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward. One And One Eighth Miles on
Storyline
Cherie DeVaux trainee #4 Elida's Angel looks to break her maiden going nine furlongs on turf after three consecutive fourth-place efforts with speed figures up to 87, but faces 15 rivals in a sprawling turf lineup.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
3
P
2
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Thirteen Roses, #2 Twinklee and #7 Eenymeanymightymo all go for the lead. #16 Ghosts Lil Secret drops to the back. 52711341131096141281516
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 52711341131096148121516
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Indomiknow has taken over in front. Moving forward: #13 Marble Arch, #8 Got What I Got and #15 Gimme Some Lovin. Tiring: #5 Thirteen Roses, #2 Twinklee and #7 Eenymeanymightymo. 11352741181531610961412

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.2%
Price horse: Indomiknow (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Elida's Angel —
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 9/2
16
★★★☆☆
59.7
 Top Pick
1 Indomiknow P Neutral
L Saez
L Robson
 6/1
14
★★★☆☆
58.3
 Value Play
7 Eenymeanymightymo EP Fits
J Loveberry
N L Pessin
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
55.4
 Longshot
15 Gimme Some Lovin S Neutral
A Concepcion
K Danner
 7/2
9
★★★☆☆
55.1
  
11 The Look —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 9/5
8
★★★☆☆
53.1
  
13 Marble Arch P Neutral
C A Torres
R Medina
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
53.0
  
2 Twinklee EP Fits
J R Leparoux
W M Catalano
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
53.0
  
10 Copycat —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
B P Walsh
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
16 Ghosts Lil Secret S Neutral
M Fernandez
D Donaldson
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
49.7
  
3 Eleonora —
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.7
  
9 Cowgirl Paradise —
L Machado
B Colebrook
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
45.7
  
6 White Star Line —
A Beschizza
W M Catalano
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
45.1
  
8 Got What I Got S Neutral
D Cannon
J A Hiles
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
14 Take the Helm
J Elliott
E G Harty
 10/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.3
  
12 Valedora —
J A Torres
W I Mott
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.1
  
5 Thirteen Roses EP Fits
B Curtis
S A Joseph, Jr.
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Elida's Angel
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Indomiknow
P Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
L Robson
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Eenymeanymightymo
EP Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
N L Pessin
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse
15
Gimme Some Lovin
S Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
K Danner
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.1
Post · Horse
11
The Look
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse
13
Marble Arch
P Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Medina
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.0
Post · Horse
2
Twinklee
EP Fits
Jockey
J R Leparoux
Trainer
W M Catalano
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.0
Post · Horse
10
Copycat
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse
16
Ghosts Lil Secret
S Neutral
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
D Donaldson
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.7
Post · Horse
3
Eleonora
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.7
Post · Horse
9
Cowgirl Paradise
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.7
Post · Horse
6
White Star Line
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
W M Catalano
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.1
Post · Horse
8
Got What I Got
S Neutral
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
J A Hiles
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
14
Take the Helm
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
E G Harty
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.3
Post · Horse
12
Valedora
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W I Mott
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.1
Post · Horse
5
Thirteen Roses
EP Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #6 Gardiner, #4 Optimal Courage, #1 Powerized.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$45,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:55 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Year Olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Three Year Olds and
Storyline
Speedster #6 Gardiner is the morning-line favorite off high-level local speed figures of 99 and 96, but will be tested early by front-runner #4 Optimal Courage in a race ripe for an off-the-pace upset.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
5
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Powerized, #6 Gardiner and #4 Optimal Courage all go for the lead. #3 League of Legends and #2 El Michoacano drop to the back. 16479810523
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Powerized, #6 Gardiner and #4 Optimal Courage keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 16498710523
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #9 Decatur Street has taken over in front. Moving forward: #8 Social Hour, #10 One Cool Dude and #2 El Michoacano. Tiring: #1 Powerized, #6 Gardiner and #4 Optimal Courage. 98102573164

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.9%
Price horse: Social Hour (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Gardiner E Misfit
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 6/5
18
★★★★☆
69.1
 Top Pick
8 Social Hour P Fits
E Esquivel
G Garcia
 4/1
14
★★★★☆
66.8
 Value Play
7 Brother Rice —
R Bejarano
M Kordenbrock
 5/1
13
★★★★☆
66.6
 Longshot
3 League of Legends S Fits
F Arrieta
R L Morse
 15/1
9
★★★★☆
63.6
  
9 Decatur Street P Fits
L Fuenmayor
C Galindo-Torres
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
63.5
  
4 Optimal Courage E Misfit
G Rodriguez
H Martinez
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
63.2
  
5 Stargazzers Dream P Fits
M Fernandez
M Lovell
 30/1
9
★★★★☆
62.9
  
1 Powerized E Misfit
C Montalvo
F Lucarelli
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
62.4
  
10 One Cool Dude P Fits
J Loveberry
C Banks
 15/1
7
★★★★☆
61.0
  
2 El Michoacano P Fits
A Beschizza
L Wiggins
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Gardiner
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.1
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Social Hour
P Fits
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
G Garcia
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Brother Rice
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
M Kordenbrock
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.6
Post · Horse
3
League of Legends
S Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
R L Morse
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
9
Decatur Street
P Fits
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Galindo-Torres
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
4
Optimal Courage
E Misfit
Jockey
G Rodriguez
Trainer
H Martinez
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.2
Post · Horse
5
Stargazzers Dream
P Fits
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
M Lovell
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse
1
Powerized
E Misfit
Jockey
C Montalvo
Trainer
F Lucarelli
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.4
Post · Horse
10
One Cool Dude
P Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
C Banks
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
2
El Michoacano
P Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
L Wiggins
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #7 Kaykay, #2 Ready Comete.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$127,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:25 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies And Mares
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Two Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Never Won
Storyline
Bob Baffert trainee #7 Kaykay seeks to parlay a maiden-breaking 90 speed figure at Keeneland into another win, but faces formidable class and speed from layoff returnee #8 Rose Alabama.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
1
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Ready Comete and #7 Kaykay go for the lead together. #8 Rose Alabama and #4 Feasible drop to the back. 27156348
  2. Middle around the turn #2 Ready Comete and #7 Kaykay keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 27135648
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Feminism has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 That's a Benjamin, #4 Feasible and #8 Rose Alabama. Tiring: #2 Ready Comete and #7 Kaykay. 31452786

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 25.0%
Price horse: Rose Alabama (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Kaykay E Misfit
T Gaffalione
B Baffert
 2/1
25
★★★★☆
71.4
 Top Pick
8 Rose Alabama S Fits
C A Torres
T Drury, Jr.
 15/1
21
★★★★☆
70.1
 Value Play
5 In Total Awe —
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 3/1
10
★★★★☆
63.9
  
3 Feminism P Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
63.8
  
6 Glory Me —
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 4/1
9
★★★★☆
62.3
 Longshot
4 Feasible S Fits
J A Torres
M A Shirer
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
62.2
  
2 Ready Comete E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 7/2
8
★★★★☆
62.0
  
1 That's a Benjamin EP Neutral
L Saez
N W Casse
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
61.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Kaykay
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B Baffert
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.4
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Rose Alabama
S Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse
5
In Total Awe
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse
3
Feminism
P Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Glory Me
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.3
Post · Horse
4
Feasible
S Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M A Shirer
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
2
Ready Comete
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
1
That's a Benjamin
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
N W Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:55 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Two Years Old. Five Furlongs on
Storyline
Wesley Ward trainee #3 Hazy Horizon stands as the horse to beat following an 86 speed figure over this turf course, while #6 Foolin ships in from New York looking to turn graded-stakes experience into a breakthrough win.
PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 37.6%
Price horse: Foolin (9/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Hazy Horizon E —
T Gaffalione
W A Ward
 5/2
38
★★★★☆
62.4
 Top Pick
6 Foolin —
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 9/2
16
★★★☆☆
54.8
 Value Play
7 Twillo
L Saez
B A Lynch
 7/2
15
★★★☆☆
54.7
  
4 Timelapse —
J A Torres
J P DiVito
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
50.1
 Longshot
1 Now He's Gone —
J L Ortiz
M J Maker
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.8
  
9 McKeonville —
A Concepcion
K Danner
 5/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.1
  
2 Yogesh —
L Machado
R D Walsh
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.8
  
8 Naxian
W A Rodriguez
M Nihei
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.6
  
5 Kiss the Medal —
E Morales
G D Foley
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Hazy Horizon
E —
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
W A Ward
38
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.4
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Foolin
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.8
Post · Horse
7
Twillo
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B A Lynch
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.7
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Timelapse
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J P DiVito
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.1
Post · Horse
1
Now He's Gone
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M J Maker
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
9
McKeonville
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
K Danner
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.1
Post · Horse
2
Yogesh
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
R D Walsh
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
Post · Horse
8
Naxian
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
M Nihei
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse
5
Kiss the Medal
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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