Curated Betting Card

Ellis Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 3.

2026-07-11 Race 3 Morning Card
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Card signals
Ellis Park · full board
Strongest play
R1
Bob's Carrot #2
Top conf.
Best value
R5
Lucky Boss
15/1 ML
Best longshot
R1
Kid Twist #6
10/1 ML
Deepest field
R8
16 runners
16
Pace race
R4
Wide open
Chaos
Card Overview
Race day summary
Maggie Rowan: Ellis Park opens with a string of lean fields where the top win probabilities hover in the low 20s and the numbers stay tightly bunched. Tony Russo: That setup screams small stakes and exacta wheels instead of single-race hammers. Maggie Rowan: The turf maidens and the late optional claimer look like the best spots to press a little harder if the prices cooperate.
Races 9 Status Completed View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTARTER ALLOWANCE
Trip & Field
DistanceSix Furlongs
Post Time11:50 AM CT
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Bob's Carrot exits the best recent speed figure in the field but returns off a six-week freshening while Kid Twist sits on a live 10-1 morning line with a sharp July 3 work.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 20.6%
Price horse: Kid Twist (10/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (8 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Bob's Carrot
J A Torres
C Santamaria
 6/5
24
★★★★★
86.2
 Top Pick
7 Capital Connection
G Saez
C Santamaria
 9/2
24
★★★★★
86.1
  
3 Trouble Ahead
F Arrieta
C Milligan
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
77.9
  
4 Hesper
B Curtis
G D Foley
 5/1
11
★★★★☆
75.2
  
6 Kid Twist
E Morales
C A Hartman
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
73.6
 Value Play
1 Colonel Caliente
D Sheehy
T Molloy
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
71.9
  
5 Tiger's Legacy
R Bejarano
M Lovell
 12/1
8
★★★★☆
70.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Bob's Carrot
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Santamaria
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★★ 86.2
Post · Horse
7
Capital Connection
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
C Santamaria
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★★ 86.1
Post · Horse
3
Trouble Ahead
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
C Milligan
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.9
Post · Horse
4
Hesper
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
G D Foley
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.2
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Kid Twist
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
C A Hartman
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.6
Post · Horse
1
Colonel Caliente
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
T Molloy
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.9
Post · Horse
5
Tiger's Legacy
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
M Lovell
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeCLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time12:19 PM CT
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Nash Potatoes has the highest win probability but only a modest speed edge, while Surfin' M drops to an 8-1 morning line after a sharp May win.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 18.4%
Price horse: Surfin' M (8/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (8 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Nash Potatoes
B Curtis
J K Sweezey
 5/2
20
★★★★☆
67.5
 Top Pick
4 Alston
D Sheehy
P Eurton
 9/5
18
★★★★☆
65.7
  
2 Spurgeon
L Machado
E Moger, Jr.
 5/1
17
★★★★☆
64.9
  
3 Surfin' M
C A Torres
A Shorter
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
63.5
 Value Play
6 Admiral Hall
G Corrales
M P Sims
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
63.4
  
5 Jets Rio
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
63.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Nash Potatoes
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
J K Sweezey
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
4
Alston
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
P Eurton
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.7
Post · Horse
2
Spurgeon
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.9
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Surfin' M
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
A Shorter
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
6
Admiral Hall
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
M P Sims
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
5
Jets Rio
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden In A Maiden Auction Race And Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maide
Trip & Field
DistanceSeven Furlongs
Post Time12:48 PM CT
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Alta Avenue has the clear top rating and a pair of 86 figures, but Bartender sits at 10-1 with a 13 percent model probability the market is underestimating.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 20.2%
Price horse: Bartender (10/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (8 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Alta Avenue
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 5/1
22
★★★★☆
76.7
 Top Pick
2 Cold Case
F Arrieta
M Williams
 6/1
20
★★★★☆
75.4
  
3 Jaboss
L Machado
C Davis
 7/2
18
★★★★☆
73.9
  
1 Bartender
C A Torres
M Simms, Jr.
 10/1
12
★★★★☆
68.1
 Value Play
4 Balaclava
B Curtis
B Williamson
 9/5
11
★★★★☆
66.7
  
5 Glazin' Fury
A Cedillo
L Rice
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
65.7
  
7 Tizianna
E Morales
H Pitts
 4/1
8
★★★★☆
61.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Alta Avenue
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.7
Post · Horse
2
Cold Case
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Williams
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.4
Post · Horse
3
Jaboss
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
C Davis
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.9
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Bartender
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M Simms, Jr.
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.1
Post · Horse
4
Balaclava
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B Williamson
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse
5
Glazin' Fury
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
L Rice
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.7
Post · Horse
7
Tizianna
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
H Pitts
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN CLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:16 PM CT
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Birch Run has the highest probability in a wide-open turf maiden, but Legit Chick at 15-1 carries the strongest longshot EV flag in the field.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 13.8%
Price horse: Legit Chick (15/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Lady Faye
A Beschizza
J B Roberts
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
65.2
  
6 Birch Run
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P J McGee
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
63.4
 Top Pick
5 Astronova
E Morales
G D Foley
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
60.4
  
3 Maiora
L Machado
W D Cowans
 3/1
12
★★★★☆
60.2
  
1 Legit Chick
D Sheehy
S D Dunn
 15/1
12
★★★☆☆
59.9
 Value Play
2 Modern Escape
G Corrales
T Moreno
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.2
  
9 Speightsy Rival
B Curtis
L Pierce
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
53.9
  
8 Main Mischief
Y Hazlewood
M W McCarthy
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
52.4
  
10 Playful Quality
R Bejarano
M P Sims
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
4 Serralunga
J A Torres
N Vaccarezza
 8/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.2
  
Post · Horse
7
Lady Faye
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J B Roberts
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Birch Run
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P J McGee
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
5
Astronova
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
3
Maiora
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
W D Cowans
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Legit Chick
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
S D Dunn
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
Post · Horse
2
Modern Escape
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
T Moreno
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse
9
Speightsy Rival
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
L Pierce
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.9
Post · Horse
8
Main Mischief
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
M W McCarthy
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.4
Post · Horse
10
Playful Quality
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
M P Sims
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
4
Serralunga
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeCLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time1:44 PM CT
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Charbon has the best recent speed figure of 90 and the highest win probability, but Lucky Boss at 15-1 carries the strongest longshot flag.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.8%
Price horse: Lucky Boss (15/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (8 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Charbon
M Meeks
C D Pomier
 10/1
20
★★★★☆
77.0
 Top Pick
6 Vino Couragio
F Arrieta
J Campbell
 10/1
15
★★★★☆
73.3
  
3 Lucky Boss
E Morales
J C Schlenk
 15/1
15
★★★★☆
72.6
 Value Play
4 Contrary Chieftain
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 5/1
15
★★★★☆
72.5
  
7 Nip N Tuck
D Sheehy
B L King
 9/2
12
★★★★☆
69.0
  
1 Hurry Hurry
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
66.5
  
2 Great Escape
G Saez
J Sharp
 4/1
8
★★★★☆
64.2
  
8 Army Officer
S Pauly
G Garcia
 3/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Charbon
Jockey
M Meeks
Trainer
C D Pomier
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.0
Post · Horse
6
Vino Couragio
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
J Campbell
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.3
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Lucky Boss
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J C Schlenk
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.6
Post · Horse
4
Contrary Chieftain
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.5
Post · Horse
7
Nip N Tuck
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
B L King
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse
1
Hurry Hurry
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.5
Post · Horse
2
Great Escape
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
8
Army Officer
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
G Garcia
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceFive And One Half Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:12 PM CT
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Super Saiyajin has the clear top rating and 22.9 percent win probability in a debut-heavy turf maiden, but Retrade sits at a usable price with a 91 workout rating.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 18.8%
Price horse: Super Saiyajin (6/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Super Saiyajin
G Corrales
S Donjuan
 6/1
23
★★★★☆
67.6
 Top Pick
5 Groundswell
F Arrieta
M E Casse
 4/1
12
★★★☆☆
58.1
  
1 Pride Rock
C A Torres
M E Casse
 5/1
11
★★★☆☆
56.6
  
6 Mahogany Dream
J Rocco, Jr.
N G Goodwin
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
55.9
  
8 Retrade
R Bejarano
D F O'Neill
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
55.0
 Longshot
4 Go Victory
G Saez
L Briley
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
54.2
  
3 Honkey Tonking
J Graham
T E Hamm
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
53.5
  
7 Take a Picture
A Cedillo
P Miller
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
51.6
  
2 Admiral's Order
L Machado
B Colebrook
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
51.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Super Saiyajin
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
S Donjuan
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse
5
Groundswell
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M E Casse
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse
1
Pride Rock
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M E Casse
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse
6
Mahogany Dream
Jockey
J Rocco, Jr.
Trainer
N G Goodwin
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.9
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Retrade
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D F O'Neill
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
Post · Horse
4
Go Victory
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
L Briley
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse
3
Honkey Tonking
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
T E Hamm
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.5
Post · Horse
7
Take a Picture
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
P Miller
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.6
Post · Horse
2
Admiral's Order
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time2:42 PM CT
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Stellenbosch has the highest win probability but only a modest speed edge, while Tiz Authority at 20-1 carries the strongest longshot EV signal in the field.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 13.7%
Price horse: Tiz Authority (20/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Stellenbosch
M Garcia
B Baffert
 4/1
15
★★★★☆
72.2
 Top Pick
1 Find No Fault
G Corrales
D L Romans
 3/1
14
★★★★☆
71.5
  
10 Don's Winner
J A Torres
J Sharp
 5/1
13
★★★★☆
70.0
  
3 Sequoia Stars
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 15/1
12
★★★★☆
68.5
 Longshot
8 Flaming Rainbow
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 9/2
10
★★★★☆
66.1
  
7 Oso de Oro
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
64.8
  
5 Tiz Authority
D Sheehy
C A Hartman
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
63.6
 Value Play
4 Time to Strike
C A Torres
M E Casse
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
63.5
  
6 Interrogator
L Machado
S M Asmussen
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
56.1
  
9 Wicked Gun
J Graham
S M Asmussen
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Stellenbosch
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
B Baffert
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.2
Post · Horse
1
Find No Fault
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
10
Don's Winner
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J Sharp
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Sequoia Stars
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
8
Flaming Rainbow
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.1
Post · Horse
7
Oso de Oro
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Tiz Authority
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C A Hartman
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
4
Time to Strike
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
6
Interrogator
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
S M Asmussen
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.1
Post · Horse
9
Wicked Gun
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
S M Asmussen
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won
Trip & Field
DistanceFive And One Half Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:12 PM CT
Field Size16
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Miracle Mark has the highest win probability in a 16-horse turf maiden, but Stormtown at 4-1 carries the best value angle among the early speed.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 8.2%
Price horse: Stormtown (4/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (4 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Stormtown
F Arrieta
D Miller
 4/1
10
★★★★☆
77.3
 Value Play
4 Miracle Mark
J A Torres
J Sharp
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
76.1
 Top Pick
13 Sketch
D Sheehy
C Murphy
 5/1
8
★★★★☆
72.3
  
7 Military Cruiser
C A Torres
N Vaccarezza
 7/2
7
★★★★☆
72.0
  
12 Clocker Special
S Pauly
B Knippenberg
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
71.5
  
9 Vanderbilt
D Sheehy
J Blair
 6/1
7
★★★★☆
71.4
  
8 Tamino
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
70.6
  
5 Oh Please
F De La Cruz
M L Elliott
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
70.0
  
1 Master of Light
M Garcia
E Vaughan
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
68.5
  
11 Taterpie
E Morales
G D Foley
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
68.4
  
16 Stormy At Midnight
C A Torres
M A Silva
 15/1
5
★★★★☆
67.0
  
14 Run Benji Run
A Gomez
L A Jurado
 20/1
5
★★★★☆
65.0
  
3 Restore
B Curtis
D Stewart
 20/1
4
★★★★☆
64.8
  
15 Livehappy
G Corrales
T Moreno
 30/1
4
★★★★☆
64.8
  
6 Magic Brew
A Beschizza
G D Foley
 6/1
4
★★★★☆
64.3
  
2 Stashu
J Graham
J C Wainwright
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Stormtown
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D Miller
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.3
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Miracle Mark
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.1
Post · Horse
13
Sketch
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C Murphy
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.3
Post · Horse
7
Military Cruiser
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.0
Post · Horse
12
Clocker Special
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
B Knippenberg
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
9
Vanderbilt
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Blair
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.4
Post · Horse
8
Tamino
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.6
Post · Horse
5
Oh Please
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
M L Elliott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse
1
Master of Light
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
E Vaughan
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
11
Taterpie
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse
16
Stormy At Midnight
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M A Silva
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse
14
Run Benji Run
Jockey
A Gomez
Trainer
L A Jurado
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
3
Restore
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
D Stewart
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
15
Livehappy
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
T Moreno
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
6
Magic Brew
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
G D Foley
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
2
Stashu
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J C Wainwright
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceSix Furlongs
Post Time3:42 PM CT
Field Size14
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Trim Castle has the highest win probability and a 100 workout rating, but Bon Voyage at 6-1 carries the best value angle among the early speed.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 12.0%
Price horse: Bon Voyage (6/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (4 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Bon Voyage
Y Hazlewood
M J Maker
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
72.5
 Value Play
7 Crossfire
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 7/2
14
★★★★☆
72.1
  
2 See You Soon
J A Torres
J Sharp
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
69.1
 Longshot
12 Trim Castle
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
69.0
 Top Pick
13 Money Man Mike
F Arrieta
A M West
 3/1
11
★★★★☆
69.0
  
4 Heart of a Hero
M Meeks
C D Pomier
 30/1
7
★★★★☆
62.2
  
8 That's Fire
A Espinoza
P Miller
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
60.1
  
11 King Crusher
A Beschizza
G Weaver
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
14 Take Charge Beach
S Pauly
G Garcia
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.4
  
9 Chrome
C A Torres
I R Wilkes
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
52.1
  
5 Tipoff
B J Hernandez, Jr.
S M Asmussen
 8/1
3
★★★☆☆
51.0
  
10 Moycullen
A Cedillo
R Medina
 12/1
3
★★★☆☆
49.8
  
6 Matcha Twist
L Machado
B Colebrook
 12/1
2
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
3 My Birthday Gift
R Bejarano
R A Barrett
 30/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.0
  
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Bon Voyage
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
M J Maker
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.5
Post · Horse
7
Crossfire
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.1
Post · Horse Longshot
2
See You Soon
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.1
Post · Horse Top Pick
12
Trim Castle
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse
13
Money Man Mike
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
A M West
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse
4
Heart of a Hero
Jockey
M Meeks
Trainer
C D Pomier
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
8
That's Fire
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
P Miller
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse
11
King Crusher
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
G Weaver
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
14
Take Charge Beach
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
G Garcia
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.4
Post · Horse
9
Chrome
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
I R Wilkes
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.1
Post · Horse
5
Tipoff
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
S M Asmussen
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.0
Post · Horse
10
Moycullen
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Medina
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse
6
Matcha Twist
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
3
My Birthday Gift
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R A Barrett
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
  Go Pro