Curated Betting Card

Ellis Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 8.

2026-07-12 Race 8 Morning Card
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Card signals
Ellis Park · full board
Strongest play
R7
Wind Flower #3
Top conf.
Best value
R1
King of Hollywood
12/1 ML
Best longshot
R1
King of Hollywood #1
12/1 ML
Deepest field
R5
16 runners
16
Pace race
R1
Wide open
Chaos
Card Overview
Race day summary
Tony Russo: Ellis Park opens with a bunch of wide-open fields where the morning line is already out of step with the real chances. Maggie Rowan: The numbers point to small stakes on the top-rated runners in races 3, 6 and 7 while hunting value underneath in the sprints. Tony Russo: Chalk will take plenty of money early but the longshots flagged in races 1, 4 and 8 are the ones that can fatten the tickets if the pace melts down.
Races 9 Status Completed View Morning
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Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeCLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceSeven Furlongs
Post Time11:50 AM CT
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Shadow Coast carries the highest speed rating at 95.0 off back-to-back wins at Churchill, yet Tony Russo flags the 12-1 King of Hollywood as the real play because its 100 speed rating has been ignored by the morning line.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 16.6%
Price horse: King of Hollywood (12/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (8 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 King of Hollywood
B Curtis
A Shorter
 12/1
18
★★★★☆
79.8
 Value Play
4 Shadow Coast
E Morales
K G Miller
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
78.7
 Top Pick
8 League of Legends
F Arrieta
R L Morse
 8/1
16
★★★★☆
78.5
  
2 Military Road
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
76.9
  
7 Mister Banderas
A Beschizza
K G Miller
 5/1
13
★★★★☆
75.2
  
6 Miacomet
M Gutierrez
G Esquivel
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
71.5
  
5 De' Medici
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 2/1
6
★★★★☆
64.3
  
3 Coming in Hot
J Padron-Barcenas
M Salas
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
Post · Horse Value Play
1
King of Hollywood
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.8
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Shadow Coast
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
K G Miller
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 78.7
Post · Horse
8
League of Legends
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
R L Morse
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 78.5
Post · Horse
2
Military Road
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.9
Post · Horse
7
Mister Banderas
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
K G Miller
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.2
Post · Horse
6
Miacomet
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
G Esquivel
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
5
De' Medici
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
3
Coming in Hot
Jockey
J Padron-Barcenas
Trainer
M Salas
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN CLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time12:19 PM CT
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Can't Stop Willis tops the sheet at 74.5 with three solid recent tries at Churchill, but Tony Russo questions whether the 5-1 morning line will hold once the public sees the workout edge on Paired.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 15.3%
Price horse: Whatever (5/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Can't Stop Willis
F Arrieta
C Milligan
 5/2
21
★★★★☆
75.0
 Top Pick
5 Whatever
G Corrales
S Donjuan
 5/1
13
★★★★☆
67.8
 Value Play
12 Paired
S Pauly
D Jacobson
 10/1
12
★★★★☆
66.9
 Longshot
2 Props
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
62.0
  
7 Nyttime Story
R Bejarano
B D Michael
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
60.9
  
4 Waittilnextyear
D Sheehy
C Murphy
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
60.6
  
11 Wolfcamp
A Concepcion
W B Calhoun
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
58.0
  
10 Refined Design
G Saez
C Milligan
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
8 Turn and Run
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.1
  
6 El Ramundo
F De La Cruz
T Newton
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
50.3
  
1 Campaign Quote
A Beschizza
C W Rosin
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
9 Kenwood Street
H L Hoskins
D Holden
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Can't Stop Willis
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
C Milligan
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.0
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Whatever
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
S Donjuan
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
Post · Horse Longshot
12
Paired
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
D Jacobson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.9
Post · Horse
2
Props
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
7
Nyttime Story
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
B D Michael
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse
4
Waittilnextyear
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C Murphy
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse
11
Wolfcamp
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W B Calhoun
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.0
Post · Horse
10
Refined Design
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
C Milligan
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse
8
Turn and Run
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.1
Post · Horse
6
El Ramundo
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
T Newton
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.3
Post · Horse
1
Campaign Quote
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
C W Rosin
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
9
Kenwood Street
Jockey
H L Hoskins
Trainer
D Holden
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTARTER ALLOWANCE
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time12:48 PM CT
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The Town exits a 92 figure win and leads at 77.95, yet Tony Russo sees the 12-1 Stolen Power as the live longshot because its 81.6 form rating is the best in the field.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.3%
Price horse: Stolen Power (12/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (7 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 The Town
B Curtis
A Shorter
 9/2
20
★★★★☆
78.0
 Top Pick
4 Susan's Boy
D Machado
B Colebrook
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
72.9
  
5 Stolen Power
E A Roman
C Williams
 12/1
14
★★★★☆
72.7
 Value Play
6 Mischief Mania
F Arrieta
L Rice
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
72.4
  
7 Midway Munny
Y Hazlewood
C Williams
 7/2
13
★★★★☆
71.7
  
8 Uncle Evco
A Cedillo
M A Shirer
 4/1
10
★★★★☆
67.9
  
2 Il Cavallino
B J Hernandez, Jr.
C A Hartman
 5/1
8
★★★★☆
64.6
  
3 Colt Forty Seven
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
The Town
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 78.0
Post · Horse
4
Susan's Boy
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.9
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Stolen Power
Jockey
E A Roman
Trainer
C Williams
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.7
Post · Horse
6
Mischief Mania
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
L Rice
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.4
Post · Horse
7
Midway Munny
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
C Williams
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.7
Post · Horse
8
Uncle Evco
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
M A Shirer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse
2
Il Cavallino
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
C A Hartman
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse
3
Colt Forty Seven
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceSix And One Half Furlongs
Post Time1:16 PM CT
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Tiger Baby leads at 68.69 with a strong 88.2 workout rating, but Tony Russo wants Crazy Hot Mess at 20-1 because the model gives it an 11.4% chance the public is ignoring.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.3%
Price horse: Crazy Hot Mess (20/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Tiger Baby
F Geroux
K G McPeek
 6/1
18
★★★★☆
68.7
 Top Pick
1 Jackie's Player
L Machado
B H Cox
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
66.3
  
9 Amuse Bouche
A Concepcion
M E Casse
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
62.2
 Longshot
3 Prompt Response
J A Torres
J C Servis
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
60.1
  
6 Crazy Hot Mess
A Espinoza
P Miller
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.0
 Value Play
8 E Tee Aye
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P J McGee
 3/1
9
★★★☆☆
58.9
  
5 Subliminal
E Morales
J A Ortiz
 5/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.0
  
4 Upside Out
F Arrieta
M E Casse
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
2 Rye Warrior
C A Torres
I R Wilkes
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
51.4
  
10 Miss McCloud
J Graham
T E Hamm
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Tiger Baby
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
K G McPeek
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse
1
Jackie's Player
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B H Cox
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Amuse Bouche
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M E Casse
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
3
Prompt Response
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J C Servis
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Crazy Hot Mess
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
P Miller
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse
8
E Tee Aye
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P J McGee
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
Post · Horse
5
Subliminal
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J A Ortiz
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.0
Post · Horse
4
Upside Out
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M E Casse
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
2
Rye Warrior
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
I R Wilkes
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
10
Miss McCloud
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
T E Hamm
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN CLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:44 PM CT
Field Size16
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Breakaway tops the turf field at 71.53 off a 89 figure at Indiana, yet Tony Russo sees the 10-1 Boss' Deed as the value because its 84 figure last out was against better.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 9.1%
Price horse: Boss' Deed (10/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (4 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Breakaway
C A Torres
B H Cox
 4/1
10
★★★★☆
71.5
 Top Pick
10 Melody Man
G Corrales
J K Sweezey
 5/2
10
★★★★☆
70.9
  
3 Boss' Deed
J A Torres
T Newton
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
70.2
 Value Play
8 Happy Prince
S Pauly
R D Walsh
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
69.8
  
2 Lasting Quality
L Machado
H Holsapple
 12/1
8
★★★★☆
67.8
  
15 Rockfest
R Bejarano
J P DiVito
 9/2
8
★★★★☆
67.0
  
5 Hellacious
E Morales
N Troiani
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
65.9
  
9 West of East Texas
A Concepcion
K Danner
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
64.3
  
14 Stoic Sage
E Morales
C Richard
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
64.0
  
1 Feral
F Arrieta
M A Tomlinson
 6/1
6
★★★★☆
63.6
  
7 Ando
G Saez
J B Roberts
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
63.5
  
13 Private Show
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
5
★★★★☆
61.7
  
6 Courageous Clay
D Sheehy
M Lovell
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.0
  
12 Bigtimetimmyjim
M Garcia
L Briley
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
16 All the Time
A Concepcion
C DeVaux
 8/1
2
★★★☆☆
46.2
  
4 Titan King
A Beschizza
R Moquett
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Breakaway
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
B H Cox
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
10
Melody Man
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Boss' Deed
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
T Newton
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse
8
Happy Prince
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
R D Walsh
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse
2
Lasting Quality
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
H Holsapple
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
Post · Horse
15
Rockfest
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
J P DiVito
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse
5
Hellacious
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
N Troiani
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.9
Post · Horse
9
West of East Texas
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
K Danner
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
14
Stoic Sage
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
C Richard
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.0
Post · Horse
1
Feral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
7
Ando
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
J B Roberts
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
13
Private Show
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse
6
Courageous Clay
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M Lovell
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse
12
Bigtimetimmyjim
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
L Briley
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
16
All the Time
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
C DeVaux
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
4
Titan King
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
R Moquett
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time2:12 PM CT
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Heartbeat leads at 77.98 with a 92.2 form rating and recent 89 figure, but Tony Russo sees the 8-1 Rando as the value because its 93 figure last out was against tougher company.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 19.1%
Price horse: Rando (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Heartbeat
F Geroux
B A Lynch
 4/1
21
★★★★☆
78.0
 Top Pick
6 Moon Over Choctaw
R Bejarano
P D'Amato
 9/2
18
★★★★☆
75.6
  
2 Colonial Rose
F Arrieta
N W Casse
 5/1
16
★★★★☆
74.5
  
3 Rando
C A Torres
A Shorter
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
73.0
 Value Play
7 Huck's Agenda
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
69.9
  
5 Tap to Open
J A Torres
B H Cox
 8/5
11
★★★★☆
68.9
  
1 Crimsonite
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
7
★★★★☆
61.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Heartbeat
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B A Lynch
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 78.0
Post · Horse
6
Moon Over Choctaw
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
P D'Amato
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.6
Post · Horse
2
Colonial Rose
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
N W Casse
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.5
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Rando
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
A Shorter
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.0
Post · Horse
7
Huck's Agenda
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.9
Post · Horse
5
Tap to Open
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
B H Cox
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.9
Post · Horse
1
Crimsonite
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won
Trip & Field
DistanceOne And One Sixteenth Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:42 PM CT
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Wind Flower tops the turf route at 78.3 with a 100 speed rating, yet Tony Russo wants La Marinera at 30-1 because the model sees real upset potential.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 19.4%
Price horse: La Marinera (30/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (8 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Wind Flower
C A Torres
W I Mott
 5/1
23
★★★★☆
79.0
 Top Pick
4 She's Lookin Lucky
F Geroux
M A Shirer
 2/1
16
★★★★☆
73.4
  
7 Smiling Ellie
F Arrieta
M E Casse
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
72.6
  
5 For Love and Honor
B J Hernandez, Jr.
J Sharp
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
71.2
  
1 Amber Cascade
Y Hazlewood
M J Maker
 3/1
12
★★★★☆
69.4
  
6 Sanctify
W Antongeorgi III
H Holsapple
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
67.6
 Longshot
2 La Marinera
R Bejarano
K A Fernandez
 30/1
9
★★★★☆
64.6
 Value Play
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Wind Flower
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
W I Mott
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.0
Post · Horse
4
She's Lookin Lucky
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
M A Shirer
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.4
Post · Horse
7
Smiling Ellie
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M E Casse
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.6
Post · Horse
5
For Love and Honor
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.2
Post · Horse
1
Amber Cascade
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
M J Maker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.4
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Sanctify
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
H Holsapple
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse Value Play
2
La Marinera
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
K A Fernandez
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceSix And One Half Furlongs
Post Time3:12 PM CT
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Air of Defiance leads at 86.4 with back-to-back 100-plus figures, but Tony Russo sees the 30-1 Lou's Legacy as the live longshot the model gives a 10.1% chance.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 14.4%
Price horse: Lou's Legacy (30/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Air of Defiance
G Saez
S J Cunningham
 7/2
18
★★★★★
86.4
 Top Pick
6 Show Time
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 3/1
13
★★★★★
82.2
  
1 Sassy Princess
L Machado
D Jacobson
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
79.9
 Longshot
9 Star's Image
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
77.7
  
10 Lou's Legacy
O Villarreal
H Andrade
 30/1
10
★★★★☆
77.1
 Value Play
2 Defending Albert
F Arrieta
C W Rosin
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
76.1
  
8 Counterspy
Y Hazlewood
R Mosco
 4/1
8
★★★★☆
74.0
  
4 Shan
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
74.0
  
7 Invulnerable
E Morales
C A Hartman
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
72.9
  
3 Free Advice
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
72.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Air of Defiance
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
S J Cunningham
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★★ 86.4
Post · Horse
6
Show Time
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★★ 82.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Sassy Princess
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D Jacobson
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.9
Post · Horse
9
Star's Image
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.7
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Lou's Legacy
Jockey
O Villarreal
Trainer
H Andrade
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.1
Post · Horse
2
Defending Albert
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
C W Rosin
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.1
Post · Horse
8
Counterspy
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
R Mosco
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.0
Post · Horse
4
Shan
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.0
Post · Horse
7
Invulnerable
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
C A Hartman
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.9
Post · Horse
3
Free Advice
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceFive And One Half Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:42 PM CT
Field Size16
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Judicious leads the turf sprint at 71.1 off a 76 figure at Del Mar, yet Tony Russo sees the 15-1 Princess Julie as the value the model gives a 10.3% chance.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 9.9%
Price horse: Hey Miss Olivia (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Judicious
F Arrieta
P D'Amato
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
72.2
 Top Pick
14 Lots of Kisses
Y Hazlewood
M J Maker
 9/2
10
★★★★☆
68.6
  
9 Hey Miss Olivia
B Curtis
E Kenneally
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
68.2
 Value Play
15 Zero Absolute
A Concepcion
P A Bauer
 5/1
9
★★★★☆
66.9
  
11 Princess Julie
F De La Cruz
E N Foster
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
65.6
 Longshot
6 Last Curtain Call
M Gutierrez
V H Oliver
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
64.8
  
16 Toast the Star
E Morales
J A Hancock
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
63.7
  
8 Mo Biscuit
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
62.3
  
5 Redhawk Riddler
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 3/1
6
★★★★☆
61.8
  
1 Heitzgirl
A Beschizza
G D Foley
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
3 Wado Wave
A Mendoza
J Dimmett
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
7 Altadena
W Antongeorgi III
D F O'Neill
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
55.4
  
4 Mundy Sweep
G Corrales
D L Romans
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
54.7
  
13 Merry An
R Bejarano
W N Howard
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
52.2
  
2 Hard Champ
G Saez
J Sharp
 10/1
3
★★★☆☆
50.1
  
12 Fashion Quest
J A Torres
W I Mott
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
40.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Judicious
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
P D'Amato
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.2
Post · Horse
14
Lots of Kisses
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
M J Maker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.6
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Hey Miss Olivia
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
E Kenneally
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.2
Post · Horse
15
Zero Absolute
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
P A Bauer
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.9
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Princess Julie
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
E N Foster
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
6
Last Curtain Call
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
V H Oliver
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
16
Toast the Star
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J A Hancock
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.7
Post · Horse
8
Mo Biscuit
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.3
Post · Horse
5
Redhawk Riddler
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
1
Heitzgirl
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
G D Foley
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse
3
Wado Wave
Jockey
A Mendoza
Trainer
J Dimmett
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse
7
Altadena
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
D F O'Neill
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse
4
Mundy Sweep
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.7
Post · Horse
13
Merry An
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
W N Howard
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
2
Hard Champ
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.1
Post · Horse
12
Fashion Quest
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W I Mott
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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