Curated Betting Card

Ellis Park

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 1.

2026-07-26 Race 1 Morning Card
You're viewing the Morning Card
This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Ellis Park · full board
Strongest play
R5
Bet On Silver #6
Top conf.
Best value
R6
True Princess
30/1 ML
Best longshot
R1
Nucleotide #8
10/1 ML
Deepest field
R9
13 runners
13
Pace race
R2
Wide open
Chaos
Card Overview
Race day summary
Ellis Park presents an action-packed 2026-07-26 card featuring competitive maiden special weights, turf claiming tests, and bulky sprint fields. Bettors will find value by leaning into sharp workout signals and logical class droppers, particularly in the turf events where early pace battles could compromise the morning line favorites. Keep stakes controlled through the early races and look to multi-horse exotics to capture value in the chaos fields.
Races 9 Status Live View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time11:50 AM CT
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This one-mile maiden special weight drew an eight-horse field where #2 Cynical Humor brings the top composite rating (62.6) off a 78 figure at Churchill Downs, but the race turns on whether #8 Nucleotide can translate a bullet 4-furlong workout into an upset against a closely grouped bunch.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 20.1%
Price horse: Nucleotide (10/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (8 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Cynical Humor
Y Hazlewood
W A Ward
 5/1
26
★★★★☆
62.9
 Top Pick
5 Fast Gun
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 5/2
21
★★★★☆
60.2
  
1 Audra
F Geroux
B H Cox
 9/2
19
★★★☆☆
58.4
  
8 Nucleotide
C A Torres
T Drury, Jr.
 10/1
11
★★★☆☆
50.5
 Value Play
6 Magic Woman
A Cedillo
R Medina
 7/2
11
★★★☆☆
50.0
  
7 Lady Diversity
A Concepcion
C DeVaux
 6/1
5
★★☆☆☆
39.6
  
3 Arcana
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 10/1
4
★★☆☆☆
33.1
  
4 Magic Notion
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
3
★★☆☆☆
31.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Cynical Humor
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
W A Ward
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse
5
Fast Gun
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
Post · Horse
1
Audra
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.4
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Nucleotide
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
T Drury, Jr.
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
6
Magic Woman
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Medina
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.0
Post · Horse
7
Lady Diversity
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
C DeVaux
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.6
Post · Horse
3
Arcana
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 33.1
Post · Horse
4
Magic Notion
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 31.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
Post Time12:19 PM CT
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A wide-open nine-horse maiden special weight over one mile features #2 Spectacular Sam holding a narrow top rating of 53.7, leaving the race up for grabs as #1 Timbertop and #5 Midnight Escapade try to overhaul the favorite at long odds.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 12.7%
Price horse: Midnight Escapade (15/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Timbertop
Y Hazlewood
W A Ward
 10/1
16
★★★☆☆
56.0
 Longshot
7 Greatest Blaze
E Morales
C A Hartman
 8/1
13
★★★☆☆
53.4
  
2 Spectacular Sam
A Cedillo
R Medina
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
52.7
 Top Pick
4 Luxor Magic
D Sheehy
D F O'Neill
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
51.5
  
9 Rumbelievable
C A Torres
I R Wilkes
 4/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.7
  
3 Ez Miss Sassy
A Concepcion
M E Casse
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
49.7
  
8 Bluegrass Princess
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 9/2
10
★★★☆☆
48.5
  
6 Stripe Show
J A Torres
J C Servis
 5/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
5 Midnight Escapade
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
44.6
 Value Play
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Timbertop
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
W A Ward
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
7
Greatest Blaze
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
C A Hartman
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.4
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Spectacular Sam
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Medina
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.7
Post · Horse
4
Luxor Magic
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
D F O'Neill
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.5
Post · Horse
9
Rumbelievable
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
I R Wilkes
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.7
Post · Horse
3
Ez Miss Sassy
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M E Casse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.7
Post · Horse
8
Bluegrass Princess
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.5
Post · Horse
6
Stripe Show
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J C Servis
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Midnight Escapade
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeCLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceOne And One Sixteenth Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time12:48 PM CT
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This turf claiming test over one and one-sixteenth miles brings together eight runners where #6 Franz Josef towers on composite ratings at 68.32, but the race question centers on whether turf veteran #4 Sugoi can dictate terms on the front end.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 16.9%
Price horse: Smoken Boy (12/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (7 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Franz Josef
W Antongeorgi III
T S Wismer
 3/1
19
★★★★☆
68.3
 Top Pick
1 C F V Bullet
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
18
★★★★☆
67.5
 Longshot
4 Sugoi
V R Carrasco
I Bahena
 9/5
14
★★★★☆
64.4
  
3 Smoken Boy
A Concepcion
M Lovell
 12/1
13
★★★★☆
62.9
 Value Play
7 Quality Chic
R Bejarano
D K Cook
 6/1
11
★★★★☆
60.1
  
5 Quokka
G Saez
C Gorostieta
 12/1
11
★★★☆☆
59.9
  
2 Special Justice
D Sheehy
T Molloy
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
56.5
  
8 Baltimore Heart
F Geroux
B Williamson
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
51.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Franz Josef
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
T S Wismer
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse Longshot
1
C F V Bullet
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
4
Sugoi
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
I Bahena
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.4
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Smoken Boy
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M Lovell
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse
7
Quality Chic
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D K Cook
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse
5
Quokka
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
C Gorostieta
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
Post · Horse
2
Special Justice
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
T Molloy
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse
8
Baltimore Heart
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B Williamson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTARTER ALLOWANCE
Trip & Field
DistanceSix Furlongs
Post Time1:16 PM CT
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A bulky 12-horse starter allowance sprint over six furlongs features #7 Haleakala sitting at the top of the ratings at 67.54, but the race hinges on whether speedsters like #5 Epic Prankster can wire the field after a sharp score at Fair Meadows.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 12.0%
Price horse: Epic Prankster (15/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (6 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Haleakala
J A Torres
C Santamaria
 10/1
14
★★★★☆
67.5
 Top Pick
5 Epic Prankster
A Santos
J M Watkins
 15/1
13
★★★★☆
67.1
 Value Play
4 Modern Sound
F Geroux
M J Maker
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
64.0
  
12 Lockdownyourtown
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
63.6
  
6 Scribble
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
63.5
  
10 Spotaway
E Morales
K LaRose
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
11 In for a Spin
V R Carrasco
C Caramori
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
3 Dancewhenyoucan
M Gutierrez
M A Shirer
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
9 Dolce Vino
A Concepcion
J Blair
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
55.9
  
2 Magic Seeker
C A Emigh
B A Vanden Berg
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
53.7
  
8 Ashes and Diamonds
B J Hernandez, Jr.
J E Baker
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
1 Storm Cloud Rising
G Corrales
A Cambray
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
46.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Haleakala
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Santamaria
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Epic Prankster
Jockey
A Santos
Trainer
J M Watkins
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.1
Post · Horse
4
Modern Sound
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
M J Maker
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.0
Post · Horse
12
Lockdownyourtown
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
6
Scribble
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
10
Spotaway
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
K LaRose
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
Post · Horse
11
In for a Spin
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
C Caramori
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
3
Dancewhenyoucan
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
M A Shirer
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
9
Dolce Vino
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Blair
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.9
Post · Horse
2
Magic Seeker
Jockey
C A Emigh
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.7
Post · Horse
8
Ashes and Diamonds
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
J E Baker
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
1
Storm Cloud Rising
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
A Cambray
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceSix Furlongs
Post Time1:44 PM CT
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This six-furlong maiden special weight for juveniles features #6 Bet On Silver towering over the field with a 62.51 rating and a 27.0% win probability, leaving first-time starters like #1 Seminal to test the heavy favorite.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 21.0%
Price horse: Seminal (3/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Bet On Silver
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 7/2
27
★★★★☆
62.5
 Top Pick
1 Seminal
L Machado
B H Cox
 3/1
15
★★★☆☆
54.1
 Value Play
9 Everglow
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 9/2
13
★★★☆☆
51.5
  
5 Intermediation
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 5/1
9
★★★☆☆
45.9
 Longshot
3 Just Vote
A Concepcion
R Mott
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
4 Circadian
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
8 Asap
C A Torres
D Stewart
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
41.4
  
2 Tweed
M Gutierrez
F Gutierrez
 12/1
6
★★☆☆☆
39.3
  
10 Ali's Glory
R Bejarano
J Dixon, Jr.
 20/1
6
★★☆☆☆
38.6
  
7 Munnings Best
G Saez
C D Pomier
 30/1
4
★★☆☆☆
34.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Bet On Silver
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
27
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.5
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Seminal
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B H Cox
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
Post · Horse
9
Everglow
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.5
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Intermediation
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
3
Just Vote
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
R Mott
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
Post · Horse
4
Circadian
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
Post · Horse
8
Asap
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.4
Post · Horse
2
Tweed
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
F Gutierrez
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.3
Post · Horse
10
Ali's Glory
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
J Dixon, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.6
Post · Horse
7
Munnings Best
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
C D Pomier
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 34.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won
Trip & Field
DistanceSix And One Half Furlongs
Post Time2:12 PM CT
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A competitive six-and-a-half-furlong test drew #9 Nimah as the top-rated runner at 71.2 for trainer Bob Baffert, but the race question is whether #3 Overcome Adversity can upset the favorite off a sharp 91 speed figure last out.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 16.4%
Price horse: True Princess (30/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Nimah
F Geroux
B Baffert
 9/5
21
★★★★☆
71.4
 Top Pick
8 Moonlight Dash
M Garcia
P A Bauer
 7/2
12
★★★★☆
63.2
  
3 Overcome Adversity
L Machado
M A Shirer
 3/1
11
★★★★☆
61.5
  
7 Spun Candy
M Gutierrez
D Stewart
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
61.4
 Longshot
2 Irresistible
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
60.4
  
4 Trusty Troutman
J A Torres
L Schultz
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.2
  
1 Kayla's Komet
G Saez
W B Calhoun
 15/1
9
★★★☆☆
58.8
  
6 True Princess
C A Torres
L Briley
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.2
 Value Play
5 Debbie Doll
A Cedillo
R Medina
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
56.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Nimah
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B Baffert
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.4
Post · Horse
8
Moonlight Dash
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
P A Bauer
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.2
Post · Horse
3
Overcome Adversity
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
M A Shirer
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Spun Candy
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Stewart
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
2
Irresistible
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
4
Trusty Troutman
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
L Schultz
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse
1
Kayla's Komet
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
W B Calhoun
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.8
Post · Horse Value Play
6
True Princess
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
L Briley
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse
5
Debbie Doll
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Medina
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Trip & Field
DistanceSix Furlongs
Post Time2:42 PM CT
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This six-furlong maiden special weight features #3 Oblivion holding a commanding 60.74 rating and a 10.9-point gap over the field for trainer Bob Baffert, leaving #10 Otz and #7 Lifesong to chase the heavy favorite.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 18.5%
Price horse: Otz (9/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Oblivion
F Geroux
B Baffert
 5/2
24
★★★★☆
60.7
 Top Pick
10 Otz
L Machado
B H Cox
 9/2
11
★★★☆☆
49.8
 Value Play
7 Lifesong
A Concepcion
W Walden
 5/1
11
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
9 Arminius
D Sheehy
B P Walsh
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
47.7
  
11 Goldvein
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
46.0
 Longshot
2 Overtime Bonus
C A Torres
M E Casse
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
1 Love a Warrior
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
40.4
  
8 Westlake
A Achard
W D Cowans
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
40.1
  
6 World View
J A Torres
R Brisset
 12/1
6
★★☆☆☆
39.2
  
5 Tulio
M Gutierrez
F Gutierrez
 15/1
5
★★☆☆☆
38.1
  
4 Mr. Grumpy Pants
M Nicholls
R J Carpio
 30/1
4
★★☆☆☆
34.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Oblivion
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B Baffert
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.7
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Otz
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B H Cox
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse
7
Lifesong
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W Walden
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
9
Arminius
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
B P Walsh
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.7
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Goldvein
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
2
Overtime Bonus
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
1
Love a Warrior
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.4
Post · Horse
8
Westlake
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
W D Cowans
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.1
Post · Horse
6
World View
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.2
Post · Horse
5
Tulio
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
F Gutierrez
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 38.1
Post · Horse
4
Mr. Grumpy Pants
Jockey
M Nicholls
Trainer
R J Carpio
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 34.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won
Trip & Field
DistanceOne And One Sixteenth Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:12 PM CT
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A massive 12-horse turf route for horses that have never won two races highlights #3 Love'm Or Liam at the top with a 70.89 rating, but the race is deeply contentious with speed figures reaching past the 100 mark.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 10.8%
Price horse: Covert Law (15/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (6 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Love'm Or Liam
J A Torres
W I Mott
 5/2
12
★★★★☆
70.9
 Top Pick
4 Tough Little Nut
B J Hernandez, Jr.
C M Block
 5/1
11
★★★★☆
69.3
  
11 Covert Law
L Machado
J A Ortiz
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
68.1
 Value Play
7 Exact Estimate
B Curtis
J Sharp
 7/2
9
★★★★☆
66.7
  
9 Systemic Change
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
66.7
  
2 Out of Deductions
F Geroux
C M Block
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
65.9
  
10 Dr. Storm
G Saez
I Bahena
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
65.4
  
6 Risk Manager
Y Hazlewood
E N Foster
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
65.3
  
1 Baddest Good Boy
M Gutierrez
D Fawkes
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
64.9
  
8 Maximum Agenda
F De La Cruz
A M West
 30/1
7
★★★★☆
63.5
  
12 Native Runner
C A Torres
G R Arnold II
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.1
  
5 Real Fast
D Sheehy
B L King
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Love'm Or Liam
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W I Mott
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse
4
Tough Little Nut
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
C M Block
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.3
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Covert Law
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
J A Ortiz
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.1
Post · Horse
7
Exact Estimate
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse
9
Systemic Change
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse
2
Out of Deductions
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
C M Block
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.9
Post · Horse
10
Dr. Storm
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
I Bahena
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
6
Risk Manager
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
E N Foster
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse
1
Baddest Good Boy
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Fawkes
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.9
Post · Horse
8
Maximum Agenda
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
A M West
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
12
Native Runner
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
G R Arnold II
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse
5
Real Fast
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
B L King
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMAIDEN CLAIMING
Trip & Field
DistanceOne Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:42 PM CT
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The turf finale is a chaotic 13-horse maiden claiming route over a mile where #9 Whatever tops the list at a 57.0 rating, but the race turns on whether #12 This Beau Knows can overcome the outside post and 47 speed figure.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 9.3%
Price horse: Whatever (20/1 ML) · Longshot value
Exotic Ticket Pack (5 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Whatever
B Martinez
R Martinez
 20/1
11
★★★☆☆
58.9
 Top Pick
12 This Beau Knows
F Geroux
C M Block
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
58.7
  
8 Gentleman Jim
Y Hazlewood
D G Heath
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.1
 Value Play
5 Prince of Light
B Curtis
M J Maker
 7/2
9
★★★☆☆
56.1
  
10 Problem Solved
G Saez
C Milligan
 15/1
9
★★★☆☆
55.7
  
6 Spun Legacy
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
54.1
  
3 Mor Cheese Please
J A Torres
T Newton
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
54.0
  
4 Master Sommelier
E Morales
A McKeever
 2/1
7
★★★☆☆
52.7
  
13 Ur Benja
G Saez
J L Aranha
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.7
  
11 Waittilnextyear
D Sheehy
C Murphy
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
48.5
  
1 Courageous Clay
D Sheehy
M Lovell
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.3
  
7 My Lucky Penny
M Gutierrez
M P Sims
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
2 It's Final
L Machado
V H Oliver
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Whatever
Jockey
B Martinez
Trainer
R Martinez
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
Post · Horse
12
This Beau Knows
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
C M Block
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Gentleman Jim
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
D G Heath
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse
5
Prince of Light
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M J Maker
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.1
Post · Horse
10
Problem Solved
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
C Milligan
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
6
Spun Legacy
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
Post · Horse
3
Mor Cheese Please
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
T Newton
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.0
Post · Horse
4
Master Sommelier
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
A McKeever
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.7
Post · Horse
13
Ur Benja
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
J L Aranha
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
Post · Horse
11
Waittilnextyear
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C Murphy
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.5
Post · Horse
1
Courageous Clay
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M Lovell
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.3
Post · Horse
7
My Lucky Penny
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
M P Sims
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
Post · Horse
2
It's Final
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
V H Oliver
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
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