Curated Betting Card

Ellis Park

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2026-08-21 Morning Card
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Ellis Park · full board
Strongest play
R6
Tre Italiani #2
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Wild Acclaim #3
12/1 ML
Deepest field
R9
16 runners
16
Pace race
R2
Wide open
Chaos
Card Overview
Race day summary
Ellis Park presents a balanced nine-race program featuring competitive claiming events, juvenile maiden scrambles, and allowance contests across dirt and turf. The early dirt claimers provide clear class-and-figure standouts like #6 Heartbeat in Race 1 and #2 Tre Italiani in Race 6, both presenting workable tactical setups. Bettors should practice caution in the two-year-old maiden heats (Races 2 and 9) where debut-heavy fields demand disciplined, selective play, while turf claimers in Races 5 and 7 offer excellent value potential underneath.
Races 9 Status Completed View Morning
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Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $30,000
Purse$40,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
DistanceSix And One Half Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time11:50 AM CT
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming Price $30,000
Storyline
The opening sprint hinges on whether #6 Heartbeat can rebound from a fifth-place effort at Ellis Park by recapturing the winning 89 speed figure earned two back at Churchill Downs, or if #4 Carol's Melody pounces from just off the pace at a square price.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.7%
Price horse: Carol's Melody (8/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Heartbeat
V R Carrasco
B A Lynch
 7/5
20
★★★★☆
65.6
 Top Pick
4 Carol's Melody
J Elliott
E Kenneally
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
61.3
 Value Play
3 Wild Acclaim
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
14
★★★★☆
60.2
 Longshot
1 Menkaure
G Corrales
A Hernandez
 9/2
13
★★★☆☆
58.9
  
2 Danzig's Dora
B Curtis
E Kenneally
 7/2
13
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
7 Final Shipman
E Morales
J Blair
 5/1
12
★★★☆☆
58.3
  
5 True Princess
G Saez
L Briley
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Heartbeat
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
B A Lynch
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Carol's Melody
Jockey
J Elliott
Trainer
E Kenneally
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Wild Acclaim
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
Post · Horse
1
Menkaure
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
A Hernandez
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
Post · Horse
2
Danzig's Dora
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
E Kenneally
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse
7
Final Shipman
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Blair
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
Post · Horse
5
True Princess
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
L Briley
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance0 M
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:19 PM CT
Field Size13
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens
Storyline
#11 Elewene carries the field's top experience after a runner-up debut earning an 87 speed figure, but an outside draw and a large cast of well-bred first-time starters makes this juvenile dash a true scramble.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 13.0%
Price horse: When I Go (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Elewene
M Garcia
D L Romans
 2/1
13
★★★☆☆
53.2
 Top Pick
2 When I Go
Y Hazlewood
E N Foster
 12/1
11
★★★☆☆
49.9
 Value Play
13 Ten Mile House
T Wales
J M Watkins
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
10 Lookism
O Bocachica
C Caramori
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
46.3
  
1 Junction
J A Torres
J Sharp
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
44.7
 Longshot
8 Unbridled Freedom
B Curtis
E Kenneally
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
44.4
  
9 Full Access
A Concepcion
R Mott
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
12 Night Knight
W A Rodriguez
A Navarrete
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
4 Tipoff
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
42.9
  
7 Breadcrumb Trail
E Morales
K LaRose
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
6 Gimmeatreat
B J Hernandez, Jr.
J S Radosevich
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
40.8
  
3 Cairo Charlie
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 30/1
5
★★☆☆☆
39.8
  
5 Honor and Courage
A Beschizza
T D Vance
 30/1
5
★★☆☆☆
37.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Elewene
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
D L Romans
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.2
Post · Horse Value Play
2
When I Go
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
E N Foster
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse
13
Ten Mile House
Jockey
T Wales
Trainer
J M Watkins
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse
10
Lookism
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
C Caramori
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.3
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Junction
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J Sharp
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
8
Unbridled Freedom
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
E Kenneally
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.4
Post · Horse
9
Full Access
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
R Mott
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
12
Night Knight
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
A Navarrete
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
4
Tipoff
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.9
Post · Horse
7
Breadcrumb Trail
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
K LaRose
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
6
Gimmeatreat
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
J S Radosevich
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.8
Post · Horse
3
Cairo Charlie
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.8
Post · Horse
5
Honor and Courage
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
T D Vance
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $50,000
Purse$45,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance118 M
SurfaceDirt
Post Time12:48 PM CT
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming Price $50,000
Storyline
Speed figures collide at one mile as #5 Quality Mischief attempts to replicate a massive 96 speed figure earned at Horseshoe Indianapolis against #2 Sound Cause, who brings steady Churchill Downs and Ellis Park graded claiming form.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 14.3%
Price horse: Quality Mischief (9/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Sound Cause
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 5/1
16
★★★★☆
64.0
 Top Pick
5 Quality Mischief
A Concepcion
B H Cox
 9/5
15
★★★★☆
63.0
 Value Play
6 Dr. Park
D Sheehy
P Eurton
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
62.3
  
8 Good Mojo
A Beschizza
M A Shirer
 4/1
14
★★★★☆
61.7
  
4 Feral
B Curtis
M A Tomlinson
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
59.7
 Longshot
1 Culprit
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
3 Legitimate
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P J McGee
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
58.2
  
7 Winery
C A Torres
K M Kaufeld
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
53.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Sound Cause
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.0
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Quality Mischief
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
B H Cox
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
6
Dr. Park
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
P Eurton
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.3
Post · Horse
8
Good Mojo
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
M A Shirer
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Feral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
1
Culprit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
3
Legitimate
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P J McGee
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
7
Winery
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
K M Kaufeld
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance124 M
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:16 PM CT
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Three Years Old and
Storyline
The question in this maiden route is whether #6 Our Forefathers can break through after pairing 88 and 92 speed figures in Kentucky, or if #10 Flick improves upon a career-best 92 figure earned over this oval last month.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 14.0%
Price horse: Flick (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Our Forefathers
B Curtis
P Eurton
 5/2
15
★★★★☆
62.7
 Top Pick
10 Flick
G Saez
M A Tomlinson
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
60.6
 Value Play
1 Liberty Valance
C A Torres
B P Walsh
 9/2
13
★★★★☆
60.5
  
3 Find No Fault
G Corrales
D L Romans
 7/2
13
★★★★☆
60.5
  
8 Nomolimbo
L Machado
D Miller
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
53.9
  
5 Differential
F Geroux
B H Cox
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
53.4
  
7 El Tio
M Garcia
R Medina
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
52.2
  
4 Noble Anthem
E Morales
V H Oliver
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.2
  
2 Macchiato
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.0
 Longshot
9 Unconnected
V Lara
H E Lynch
 50/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Our Forefathers
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
P Eurton
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Flick
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse
1
Liberty Valance
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
B P Walsh
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
3
Find No Fault
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
8
Nomolimbo
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D Miller
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.9
Post · Horse
5
Differential
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B H Cox
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.4
Post · Horse
7
El Tio
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
R Medina
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
4
Noble Anthem
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
V H Oliver
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.2
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Macchiato
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.0
Post · Horse
9
Unconnected
Jockey
V Lara
Trainer
H E Lynch
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $30,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won Three Races
Purse$42,500
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance122 M
SurfaceTurf
Post Time1:44 PM CT
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Eligibilitywhich have never won three races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races. Claiming Price $30,000
Storyline
A full turf field of eleven fillies and mares creates tactical intrigue as #7 Modern Sound seeks to transfer strong synthetic form to the turf against #11 Asteria, who exits a sharp 84 speed figure turf victory at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 10.9%
Price horse: Asteria (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Modern Sound
F Geroux
M J Maker
 5/2
12
★★★★☆
62.8
 Top Pick
11 Asteria
S Sanjur
A Navarrete
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
62.6
 Value Play
1 Got Gone
A Achard
J Ennis
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
61.8
  
8 Hold My Halo
A Beschizza
D Miller
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
60.5
 Longshot
9 Poema
E Morales
N Troiani
 10/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
5 Storm Cloud Rising
W A Rodriguez
A Cambray
 3/1
8
★★★☆☆
57.2
  
10 Speed Skater
L Machado
C W Axmaker
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
56.5
  
3 Lady Lithesome
Y Hazlewood
D Hancock
 50/1
8
★★★☆☆
55.7
  
6 La Scatta
J Graham
H Pitts
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
55.4
  
4 Kittens Stormy Gal
G Saez
W M Bindner, Jr.
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
55.3
  
2 Ashes and Diamonds
B J Hernandez, Jr.
J E Baker
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Modern Sound
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
M J Maker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Asteria
Jockey
S Sanjur
Trainer
A Navarrete
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
1
Got Gone
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
J Ennis
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Hold My Halo
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
D Miller
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
9
Poema
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
N Troiani
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
5
Storm Cloud Rising
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
A Cambray
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse
10
Speed Skater
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
C W Axmaker
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse
3
Lady Lithesome
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
D Hancock
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
6
La Scatta
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
H Pitts
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse
4
Kittens Stormy Gal
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
W M Bindner, Jr.
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.3
Post · Horse
2
Ashes and Diamonds
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
J E Baker
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowances)
Purse$102,000
Trip & Field
Distance123 M
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:12 PM CT
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won other than maiden, claiming, or starter
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have never won other than maiden, claiming, or starter
Storyline
The day's allowance feature turns on whether #2 Tre Italiani can leverage his 101 Keeneland speed figure and sharp 47.00 half-mile drill to turn back the closing kick of #3 Chillax, who exits competitive Saratoga and Churchill efforts.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.3%
Price horse: Chillax (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Tre Italiani
W A Rodriguez
L Rivelli
 5/2
23
★★★★☆
72.0
 Top Pick
3 Chillax
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 7/2
17
★★★★☆
68.0
 Value Play
1 Penalty Box
B Curtis
M W McCarthy
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
67.6
  
4 Pimlott
J A Torres
B P Walsh
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
63.8
  
5 Ezum
A Concepcion
B H Cox
 3/1
11
★★★★☆
60.9
  
6 Admiral Hall
G Corrales
M P Sims
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
59.4
  
7 Vintage Cowboy
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
59.0
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Tre Italiani
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
L Rivelli
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.0
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Chillax
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse
1
Penalty Box
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M W McCarthy
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse
4
Pimlott
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
B P Walsh
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
5
Ezum
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
B H Cox
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse
6
Admiral Hall
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
M P Sims
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Vintage Cowboy
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less Or Which Have Broken Their Maiden In A Maiden
Purse$46,250
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance122 M
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:42 PM CT
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming Price $50,000
Storyline
A contentious turf claimer matches #9 Utopian, fresh off a 92 speed figure in Indiana, against Saratoga shipper #2 Gene and Jude and local runner-up #4 Michael's Cove, who posted a massive 96 speed figure over this turf course on July 9.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 10.7%
Price horse: Gene and Jude (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Utopian
F Geroux
J M Camejo
 12/1
11
★★★★☆
63.3
 Top Pick
2 Gene and Jude
D Sheehy
M J Maker
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
62.8
 Value Play
4 Michael's Cove
A Concepcion
T Newton
 9/2
11
★★★★☆
62.7
  
8 Landing Craft
E Morales
J Blair
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
60.9
 Longshot
3 Gallo de Fuego
G Saez
C Milligan
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
60.3
  
11 Professor Higgins
W Antongeorgi III
H Holsapple
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
7 Quality Chic
R Bejarano
D K Cook
 15/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.2
  
6 Kicking Clear
J Graham
S A Kurtz
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.0
  
1 The Dover Specter
A Beschizza
K Danner
 3/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.0
  
10 Equilibrium
V R Carrasco
I R Wilkes
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
56.2
  
5 Fatguyinlittlecoat
J A Torres
M A Tomlinson
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
55.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Utopian
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
J M Camejo
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Gene and Jude
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M J Maker
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
4
Michael's Cove
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
T Newton
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Landing Craft
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Blair
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse
3
Gallo de Fuego
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
C Milligan
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
11
Professor Higgins
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
H Holsapple
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
7
Quality Chic
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D K Cook
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse
6
Kicking Clear
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
S A Kurtz
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse
1
The Dover Specter
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
K Danner
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.0
Post · Horse
10
Equilibrium
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
I R Wilkes
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.2
Post · Horse
5
Fatguyinlittlecoat
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$102,000
Trip & Field
Distance118 M
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:12 PM CT
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won two races
Storyline
#2 True Passion seeks to turn an 85 speed figure effort at Ellis Park into a winning performance against #4 Rational Theory, who won at Churchill two back with an 88 speed figure and benefits from an Asmussen route pattern.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 13.8%
Price horse: Rational Theory (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 True Passion
E Morales
L Briley
 12/1
15
★★★★☆
63.8
 Top Pick
4 Rational Theory
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
14
★★★★☆
63.1
 Value Play
5 Highgrove
F Geroux
B H Cox
 4/5
12
★★★★☆
61.1
  
7 Moonlight Dash
M Garcia
P A Bauer
 7/2
12
★★★★☆
60.8
  
3 Debbie Doll
A Cedillo
R Medina
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.0
 Longshot
6 My Sweetheart
C A Torres
M E Casse
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.6
  
8 Kenz
B Curtis
S M Asmussen
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.4
  
9 Mighty Nora
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.0
  
1 I'm Game
V R Carrasco
G R Arnold II
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
True Passion
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
L Briley
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Rational Theory
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.1
Post · Horse
5
Highgrove
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B H Cox
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse
7
Moonlight Dash
Jockey
M Garcia
Trainer
P A Bauer
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Debbie Doll
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Medina
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.0
Post · Horse
6
My Sweetheart
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M E Casse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.6
Post · Horse
8
Kenz
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse
9
Mighty Nora
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.0
Post · Horse
1
I'm Game
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
G R Arnold II
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$100,000
Trip & Field
Distance119 M
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:42 PM CT
Field Size16
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens
Storyline
The finale matches experienced juvenile #2 Jokester, who earned a 79 speed figure when second on debut here, against a powerful Brad Cox uncoupled entry featuring well-regarded first-timers #12 National Forest and #13 Roosevelt.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 10.9%
Price horse: Round Up (20/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Jokester
D Sheehy
G Weaver
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
53.0
 Top Pick
9 Round Up
W A Rodriguez
E N Foster
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
50.0
 Value Play
13 Roosevelt
F Geroux
B H Cox
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
11 Okarito
Y Hazlewood
E G Harty
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
12 National Forest
A Concepcion
B H Cox
 7/2
6
★★★☆☆
45.9
  
3 Staunch
B Curtis
B P Walsh
 9/2
6
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
1 Bombarino
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.1
  
4 Borax
E Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.0
 Longshot
8 Clear for Takeoff
A Beschizza
C DeVaux
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.3
  
10 Westlake
L Machado
W D Cowans
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
7 Shelton
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P Eurton
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
6 Bardstown
J A Torres
R Mott
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.6
  
5 Cosmic Confection
E Morales
B P Walsh
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.5
  
15 Moonfire
G Corrales
N W Casse
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
42.4
  
16 Royces Law
G Corrales
D L Romans
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
14 Ritornello
G Saez
M Williams
 30/1
4
★★☆☆☆
39.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Jokester
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
G Weaver
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.0
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Round Up
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
E N Foster
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.0
Post · Horse
13
Roosevelt
Jockey
F Geroux
Trainer
B H Cox
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
11
Okarito
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
E G Harty
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
12
National Forest
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
B H Cox
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
3
Staunch
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
1
Bombarino
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.1
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Borax
Jockey
E Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
8
Clear for Takeoff
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
C DeVaux
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.3
Post · Horse
10
Westlake
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
W D Cowans
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
7
Shelton
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P Eurton
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
6
Bardstown
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse
5
Cosmic Confection
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.5
Post · Horse
15
Moonfire
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
N W Casse
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.4
Post · Horse
16
Royces Law
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
14
Ritornello
Jockey
G Saez
Trainer
M Williams
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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