Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 5.

2026-10-02 Race 5 Morning Card
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Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R9
Summer Starlet #5
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Belle Ofthe Dance #11
8/1 ML
Deepest field
R10
12 runners
12
Pace shape
R1
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland opens its fall meet with an exceptional 10-race program headlined by the Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes in Race 7 and the Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes in Race 9. Firm turf and fast dirt conditions set up several competitive full fields where early speed figures point to vulnerable favorites in the turf routes. The premier wagering angles lie in the middle-to-late sequences, anchored by standout juvenile performances and tactical mid-price exactas.
Races 10 Status Completed View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #9 Epic Prankster, #11 Belle Ofthe Dance.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $30,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won Three Races
Purse$55,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Three Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A contentious 10-horse field kicks off the card at seven furlongs, where #8 Queen of Queens cuts back from turf routes and must counter the sharp Churchill dirt form of #7 Modern Sound and #3 Noroomformischief.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
1
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Epic Prankster should break on top. #10 Mom's Cheesecake and #7 Modern Sound drop to the back. 911846132710
  2. Middle around the turn #9 Epic Prankster and #11 Belle Ofthe Dance keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 911846132710
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Heartbeat has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Noroomformischief, #2 Sweet Bebsi and #7 Modern Sound. Tiring: #9 Epic Prankster and #11 Belle Ofthe Dance. 183462710911

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 12.3%
Price horse: Modern Sound (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Queen of Queens EP Neutral
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 3/1
12
★★★★☆
62.6
 Top Pick
7 Modern Sound S Fits
T Gaffalione
S R Radosevich
 5/1
12
★★★★☆
62.3
 Value Play
3 Noroomformischief S Fits
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 9/2
11
★★★★☆
62.0
  
9 Epic Prankster E Misfit
M Fernandez
J M Watkins
 12/1
11
★★★★☆
61.7
  
11 Belle Ofthe Dance E Misfit
J A Torres
C Santamaria
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
61.4
 Longshot
6 Our Shenanigan EP Neutral
G Corrales
S Donjuan
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
60.9
  
1 Heartbeat P Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
60.5
  
2 Sweet Bebsi S Fits
W Antongeorgi III
R D Walsh
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
10 Mom's Cheesecake S Fits
L Machado
L Pierce
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
4 Hollybygolly EP Neutral
A Concepcion
R Mott
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
55.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Queen of Queens
EP Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Modern Sound
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
S R Radosevich
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.3
Post · Horse
3
Noroomformischief
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
9
Epic Prankster
E Misfit
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
J M Watkins
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Belle Ofthe Dance
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Santamaria
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
6
Our Shenanigan
EP Neutral
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
S Donjuan
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse
1
Heartbeat
P Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
2
Sweet Bebsi
S Fits
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
R D Walsh
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
Post · Horse
10
Mom's Cheesecake
S Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
L Pierce
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
4
Hollybygolly
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
R Mott
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #1 National Eclipse, #7 Manfredi, #3 Jus Too Fly.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$51,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The two-turn route features #1 National Eclipse looking to leverage the rail draw against #4 Mena, who brings superior raw figures from the Midwest circuit but must negotiate an aggressive early tempo.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
3
P
0
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 National Eclipse, #3 Jus Too Fly and #8 Special Justice all go for the lead. #5 Vino Couragio and #9 Stolen Power drop to the back. 13871042695
  2. Middle around the turn #1 National Eclipse, #3 Jus Too Fly and #8 Special Justice keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 13871042695
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Professor Higgins has taken over in front. Moving forward: #9 Stolen Power and #5 Vino Couragio. Tiring: #1 National Eclipse, #3 Jus Too Fly and #8 Special Justice. 69510421387

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.0%
Price horse: Mena (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 National Eclipse E Misfit
J L Ortiz
E Kenneally
 5/2
21
★★★★☆
71.2
 Top Pick
4 Mena EP Neutral
Y Hazlewood
R Moquett
 4/1
15
★★★★☆
68.2
 Value Play
7 Manfredi E Misfit
L Saez
N W Casse
 3/1
10
★★★★☆
65.0
  
9 Stolen Power S Fits
J McKee
C Williams
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
64.3
 Longshot
3 Jus Too Fly E Misfit
O Bocachica
A Decker
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
64.2
  
5 Vino Couragio S Fits
J Loveberry
J Campbell
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
63.3
  
6 Professor Higgins S Fits
W Antongeorgi III
H Holsapple
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
62.0
  
10 Contrary Chieftain EP Neutral
B Curtis
A Shorter
 15/1
7
★★★★☆
61.8
  
8 Special Justice E Misfit
D Sheehy
T Molloy
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
61.8
  
2 Raising Kane EP Neutral
V R Carrasco
L Moreno-Barban
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
60.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
National Eclipse
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
E Kenneally
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.2
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Mena
EP Neutral
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
R Moquett
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.2
Post · Horse
7
Manfredi
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
N W Casse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Stolen Power
S Fits
Jockey
J McKee
Trainer
C Williams
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
3
Jus Too Fly
E Misfit
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
A Decker
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
5
Vino Couragio
S Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
J Campbell
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
Post · Horse
6
Professor Higgins
S Fits
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
H Holsapple
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
10
Contrary Chieftain
EP Neutral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
8
Special Justice
E Misfit
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
T Molloy
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
2
Raising Kane
EP Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
L Moreno-Barban
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #7 Virabhadrasana, #1 Sharpie Girl, #6 Washton.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Or Starter Allowed 2 Lbs
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityClaiming or Starter
Allowance2 lbs for starter eligibles
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Short-priced favorite #7 Virabhadrasana ships in from Saratoga looking to clear early, but she faces substantial pace pressure from #1 Sharpie Girl and a dangerous late-running longshot in #3 Velvet Beretta.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
0
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Washton, #1 Sharpie Girl and #4 Master Queen all go for the lead. 6145723
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Washton, #1 Sharpie Girl and #4 Master Queen keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 6145732
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Velvet Beretta has taken over in front. Tiring: #6 Washton, #1 Sharpie Girl and #4 Master Queen. 3261457

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.9%
Price horse: Velvet Beretta (20/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (2 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Virabhadrasana E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
K LaRose
 1/1
22
★★★★☆
62.6
 Top Pick
3 Velvet Beretta P Fits
F Arrieta
M Douaihy
 20/1
16
★★★★☆
60.1
 Value Play
1 Sharpie Girl E Misfit
A Beschizza
K Danner
 8/1
15
★★★☆☆
59.6
 Longshot
2 Seaside Startup —
F Prat
C C Brown
 7/2
15
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
6 Washton E Misfit
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 4/1
14
★★★☆☆
58.5
  
5 Chickies Perch E Misfit
J A Torres
G Weaver
 8/1
11
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
4 Master Queen E Misfit
L Fuenmayor
C Munoz
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
52.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Virabhadrasana
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
1/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Velvet Beretta
P Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Douaihy
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Sharpie Girl
E Misfit
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
K Danner
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
2
Seaside Startup
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
6
Washton
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
Post · Horse
5
Chickies Perch
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
G Weaver
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
4
Master Queen
E Misfit
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Munoz
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Years Old And Upward Fillies And Mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Seven furlongs of maiden drama centers on #4 Shewontbudge, who owns superior dirt figures but must hold off the late kick of #7 Rules and Regs switching back from turf.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.7%
Price horse: Rules and Regs (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Shewontbudge S —
A Jimenez
J T Spicer
 6/1
25
★★★☆☆
59.4
 Top Pick
7 Rules and Regs —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 5/1
16
★★★☆☆
55.7
 Value Play
3 Cartier Gold —
L Saez
J C Servis
 12/1
15
★★★☆☆
55.4
  
11 Cognition —
F Prat
C C Brown
 8/1
14
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Longshot
9 Parisinthespring EP —
J R Velazquez
V H Oliver
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.3
  
12 Staged —
I Ortiz, Jr.
W I Mott
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
48.5
  
6 Touch of an Angel —
A Concepcion
P D'Amato
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
2 Hathaway —
F Arrieta
M Douaihy
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
8 Maxfield's Dream —
B Martinez
R Pompell
 50/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Shewontbudge
S —
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
J T Spicer
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Rules and Regs
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
3
Cartier Gold
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J C Servis
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.4
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Cognition
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
9
Parisinthespring
EP —
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
V H Oliver
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.3
Post · Horse
12
Staged
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
W I Mott
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.5
Post · Horse
6
Touch of an Angel
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
P D'Amato
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
Post · Horse
2
Hathaway
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Douaihy
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
Post · Horse
8
Maxfield's Dream
—
Jockey
B Martinez
Trainer
R Pompell
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #10 Light Won Up, #2 La Puma, #13 Office.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter On The Turf Allowed 4 Lbs
Purse$140,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Allowance4 lbs allowed on turf
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A full field of turf sprinters tackles five and a half furlongs where #11 Cadenza must overcome a tricky wide draw while trying to catch the lightning-fast California shipper #10 Light Won Up.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #10 Light Won Up, #2 La Puma and #13 Office all go for the lead. #12 Laigina and #8 Pillar of Beauty drop to the back. 102131116957812
  2. Middle around the turn #10 Light Won Up, #2 La Puma and #13 Office keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 102131911861257
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Quiet Street has taken over in front. Moving forward: #9 Triskelion, #12 Laigina and #8 Pillar of Beauty. Tiring: #10 Light Won Up, #2 La Puma and #13 Office. 191281165710213

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 19.1%
Price horse: Light Won Up (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Cadenza —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
19
★★★★☆
71.8
 Top Pick
10 Light Won Up E Misfit
J L Ortiz
D F O'Neill
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
69.2
 Value Play
1 Quiet Street P Fits
F Prat
W I Mott
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
66.9
  
2 La Puma E Misfit
J A Torres
R Hernandez
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
66.9
 Longshot
9 Triskelion P Fits
L Saez
G R Arnold II
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
66.2
  
12 Laigina S Fits
K J Asmussen
P L Biancone
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
66.2
  
13 Office E Misfit
J R Velazquez
D Beckman
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
64.5
  
8 Pillar of Beauty P Fits
J R Velazquez
W I Mott
 8/1
6
★★★★☆
61.3
  
6 Rocket Rania —
M Gutierrez
P Matejka
 30/1
5
★★★★☆
60.9
  
5 Alpenglow —
T Gaffalione
J F D'Angelo
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.4
  
7 Now Or Nevermore —
M Murrill
C Banks
 12/1
2
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Cadenza
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.8
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Light Won Up
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
D F O'Neill
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse
1
Quiet Street
P Fits
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
W I Mott
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.9
Post · Horse Longshot
2
La Puma
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Hernandez
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.9
Post · Horse
9
Triskelion
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G R Arnold II
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse
12
Laigina
S Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
P L Biancone
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse
13
Office
E Misfit
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
D Beckman
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
8
Pillar of Beauty
P Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W I Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse
6
Rocket Rania
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P Matejka
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.9
Post · Horse
5
Alpenglow
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J F D'Angelo
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.4
Post · Horse
7
Now Or Nevermore
—
Jockey
M Murrill
Trainer
C Banks
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Juvenile maidens clash at six furlongs where odds-on favorite #8 National Forest seeks redemption after a debut 85 speed figure, but faces longshot speed from #1 Super Saiyajin.
PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 34.3%
Price horse: Overtime Bonus (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 National Forest —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 8/5
34
★★★★☆
63.4
 Top Pick
5 Overtime Bonus EP —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 8/1
18
★★★☆☆
58.2
 Value Play
6 T V Time Out —
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 6/1
15
★★★☆☆
56.5
  
1 Super Saiyajin E —
G Corrales
S Donjuan
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
51.6
 Longshot
2 General Jack —
F Prat
B P Walsh
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
3 Kingside —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 7/2
5
★★★☆☆
46.9
  
7 Redmoor —
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
9 Knicks Diamonds —
F Arrieta
M P Sims
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
4 Saltwater Soul —
J A Torres
R Mott
 12/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.9
  
10 Drain the Bourbon —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
National Forest
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
34
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Overtime Bonus
EP —
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
6
T V Time Out
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Super Saiyajin
E —
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
S Donjuan
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.6
Post · Horse
2
General Jack
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B P Walsh
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
3
Kingside
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.9
Post · Horse
7
Redmoor
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
9
Knicks Diamonds
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M P Sims
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
4
Saltwater Soul
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.9
Post · Horse
10
Drain the Bourbon
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #2 Booth, #1 Mad House, #9 Jack's Promise.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $400,000
Purse$400,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes features a high-stakes clash between the surging #4 Verifire, who enters on consecutive 110+ speed figures, and proven Keeneland specialist #10 Nakatomi.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
2
P
1
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Jack's Promise, #1 Mad House and #2 Booth all go for the lead. #5 Classic of Course and #11 Here Mi Song drop to the back. 9123104115
  2. Middle around the turn #9 Jack's Promise, #1 Mad House and #2 Booth keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 9121034115
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #10 Nakatomi is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #11 Here Mi Song and #5 Classic of Course. Tiring: #9 Jack's Promise, #1 Mad House and #2 Booth. 1011354912

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.2%
Price horse: Nakatomi (7/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Verifire EP Neutral
F Prat
B H Cox
 5/2
21
★★★★☆
79.2
 Top Pick
10 Nakatomi —
I Ortiz, Jr.
W A Ward
 7/2
21
★★★★☆
79.1
 Value Play
2 Booth E Misfit
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 6/1
15
★★★★☆
76.2
  
3 Little Thunder EP Neutral
J R Velazquez
T E Hamm
 15/1
12
★★★★☆
74.2
  
5 Classic of Course S Fits
L Saez
P L Biancone
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
72.0
  
1 Mad House E Misfit
S Leon
D VanWinkle
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
71.7
 Longshot
9 Jack's Promise E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D L Romans
 30/1
7
★★★★☆
70.1
  
11 Here Mi Song P Fits
E Morales
W Stinson, Jr.
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
68.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Verifire
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B H Cox
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.2
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Nakatomi
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
W A Ward
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.1
Post · Horse
2
Booth
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.2
Post · Horse
3
Little Thunder
EP Neutral
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
T E Hamm
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.2
Post · Horse
5
Classic of Course
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
P L Biancone
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.0
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Mad House
E Misfit
Jockey
S Leon
Trainer
D VanWinkle
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.7
Post · Horse
9
Jack's Promise
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D L Romans
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse
11
Here Mi Song
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
W Stinson, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #11 Elegante Miz, #2 Mel Went Home.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $400,000
Purse$400,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A contentious 11-horse juvenile turf stakes at eight and a half furlongs finds #1 Pros and Cons looking to parlay New York stakes form from the rail against rising star #3 Monique En Vol.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
0
P
0
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Mel Went Home should break on top. #6 Glycogen and #1 Pros and Cons drop to the back. 21153479101216
  2. Middle around the turn #2 Mel Went Home and #11 Elegante Miz keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 21153479101216
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #12 Mightily has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Pros and Cons and #6 Glycogen. Tiring: #2 Mel Went Home and #11 Elegante Miz. 12156347910211

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.2%
Price horse: Monique En Vol (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Pros and Cons S Fits
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 12/1
16
★★★★☆
68.6
 Top Pick
3 Monique En Vol —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
14
★★★★☆
67.4
 Value Play
11 Elegante Miz E Misfit
K J Asmussen
P L Biancone
 8/1
14
★★★★☆
67.3
 Longshot
5 Seneca Park —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 9/2
11
★★★★☆
65.6
  
6 Glycogen S Fits
J R Velazquez
J C Servis
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
65.3
  
2 Mel Went Home E Misfit
C A Torres
R Medina
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
63.1
  
7 Golden Maiden —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
61.4
  
12 Mightily S Fits
L Machado
J O'Dwyer
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
60.4
  
9 Quibbler —
J A Torres
R Mott
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
57.2
  
4 Beautiful Harper —
T Gaffalione
C DeVaux
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
10 Serenas Ghost —
L Saez
J Sharp
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
55.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Pros and Cons
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.6
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Monique En Vol
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Elegante Miz
E Misfit
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
P L Biancone
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse
5
Seneca Park
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
6
Glycogen
S Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
J C Servis
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse
2
Mel Went Home
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Medina
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.1
Post · Horse
7
Golden Maiden
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
12
Mightily
S Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
J O'Dwyer
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
9
Quibbler
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse
4
Beautiful Harper
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
C DeVaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
10
Serenas Ghost
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $650,000
Purse$650,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:16 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes features #5 Summer Starlet, who dominates on figures off a 94 speed figure Spinaway victory, against Chad Brown's unbeaten #6 Forever Carina.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 35.8%
Price horse: Forever Carina (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Summer Starlet P —
F Prat
S M Asmussen
 4/5
36
★★★★☆
72.2
 Top Pick
6 Forever Carina —
J L Ortiz
C C Brown
 9/2
15
★★★★☆
64.7
 Value Play
1 Emphatic S —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 4/1
14
★★★★☆
64.5
  
3 Ever Forward —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
B P Walsh
 20/1
10
★★★★☆
61.6
 Longshot
4 Oh She Said Yes —
J Loveberry
K G McPeek
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
60.8
  
7 High Speed Reed —
J R Velazquez
M E Casse
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.2
  
2 For the Money —
R Bejarano
R G Crichton
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Summer Starlet
P —
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
S M Asmussen
36
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.2
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Forever Carina
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C C Brown
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse
1
Emphatic
S —
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Ever Forward
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
B P Walsh
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.6
Post · Horse
4
Oh She Said Yes
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
K G McPeek
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse
7
High Speed Reed
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse
2
For the Money
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R G Crichton
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #6 Michael's Cove, #10 Caragogo.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 3/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:48 PM ET
Field Size12
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityOr Which Have Never Won Two Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The marathon turf finale at nearly ten furlongs features a battle between #11 Doctrine, who boasts a 99 speed figure, and #12 The Brigade, who ran a sharp 102 figure at Kentucky Downs.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
5
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Michael's Cove and #10 Caragogo go for the lead together. #5 Timestream and #4 Lahainaluna drop to the back. 610391118271245
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Michael's Cove and #10 Caragogo keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 610391118271245
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Chillax has taken over in front. Moving forward: #8 Kravitz, #2 Highly Connected and #7 My Boy Tony. Tiring: #3 Quiet Mischief, #9 Lazlo and #11 Doctrine. 182739114512610

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 18.6%
Price horse: The Brigade (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
11 Doctrine EP Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
19
★★★★☆
73.9
 Top Pick
12 The Brigade P Fits
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 3/1
19
★★★★☆
73.9
 Value Play
9 Lazlo EP Neutral
F Prat
M J Maker
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
68.9
  
7 My Boy Tony P Fits
T Gaffalione
E Kenneally
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
67.9
 Longshot
2 Highly Connected P Fits
F Arrieta
M Williams
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
67.0
  
6 Michael's Cove E Misfit
A Concepcion
T Newton
 15/1
7
★★★★☆
65.9
  
1 Chillax P Fits
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
65.4
  
4 Lahainaluna S Fits
L Saez
J Sharp
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
65.3
  
8 Kravitz P Fits
J R Velazquez
H G Motion
 10/1
5
★★★★☆
62.8
  
5 Timestream S Fits
Y Hazlewood
T Molloy
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
3 Quiet Mischief EP Neutral
M Gutierrez
A McKeever
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
58.4
  
10 Caragogo E Misfit
E Morales
G R Arnold II
 6/1
2
★★★☆☆
56.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
11
Doctrine
EP Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.9
Post · Horse Value Play
12
The Brigade
P Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.9
Post · Horse
9
Lazlo
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
M J Maker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.9
Post · Horse Longshot
7
My Boy Tony
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
E Kenneally
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse
2
Highly Connected
P Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Williams
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse
6
Michael's Cove
E Misfit
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
T Newton
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.9
Post · Horse
1
Chillax
P Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse
4
Lahainaluna
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse
8
Kravitz
P Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
H G Motion
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
5
Timestream
S Fits
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
T Molloy
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
3
Quiet Mischief
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
A McKeever
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.4
Post · Horse
10
Caragogo
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G R Arnold II
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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