Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 10.

2026-10-08 Race 10 Morning Card
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Card signals
Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R10
Classic Cause #1
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Braums Run #5
8/1 ML
Deepest field
R5
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R3
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland's ten-race program features competitive turf allowances and full juvenile fields, highlighted by the return of class-tested turf runners in Race 9 and a standout maiden prospect in Race 10. Sprint claimers kick off the afternoon with manageable fields where early positioning will be critical over the fast main track. Bettors should look for value underneath in the wide-open two-year-old turf and dirt routes, while leveraging key singles late in the sequence to build horizontal tickets.
Races 10 Status Completed View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less Or Which Have Broken Their Maiden In A Maiden
Purse$63,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races or claiming price $50,000 or less
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For horses three years old and upward which have never won two races or claiming price $50,000 or less
Storyline
The opener turns on whether #2 Vissino can rebound from a dull Kentucky Downs turf outing and replicate his 86 speed figure dirt victory from Churchill Downs, or if #7 Sargent Bilko's closing kick nips him on the wire.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.1%
Price horse: Sargent Bilko (7/2 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Vissino —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 8/5
23
★★★☆☆
58.4
 Top Pick
7 Sargent Bilko —
I Ortiz, Jr.
E Kenneally
 7/2
23
★★★☆☆
58.2
 Value Play
4 Slickback —
J R Velazquez
L Robson
 9/5
14
★★★☆☆
54.0
  
5 Braums Run —
L Saez
M E Casse
 8/1
12
★★★☆☆
52.8
 Longshot
1 Detention —
Y Hazlewood
W M Catalano
 3/1
11
★★★☆☆
52.1
  
6 Mr. Fete —
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 15/1
10
★★★☆☆
50.9
  
3 Ten Mile House —
T Wales
J M Watkins
 20/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Vissino
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.4
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Sargent Bilko
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
E Kenneally
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
4
Slickback
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
L Robson
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.0
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Braums Run
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M E Casse
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.8
Post · Horse
1
Detention
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
W M Catalano
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.1
Post · Horse
6
Mr. Fete
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.9
Post · Horse
3
Ten Mile House
—
Jockey
T Wales
Trainer
J M Watkins
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$85,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens, two years old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
A ten-horse juvenile sprint pits #8 Touch Money's proven race experience and 74 speed figure against #2 Divine Truth, who flashed blazing early speed at Churchill before tiring late.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 20.7%
Price horse: Divine Truth (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Touch Money S —
A Concepcion
W B Calhoun
 9/2
21
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Top Pick
2 Divine Truth —
Y Hazlewood
R Moquett
 6/1
17
★★★☆☆
52.7
 Value Play
1 Soap Note —
M Gutierrez
D Stewart
 5/1
16
★★★☆☆
52.2
  
6 Double Arrow
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 9/2
11
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
3 Mitole Joe —
F Arrieta
M Williams
 30/1
7
★★★☆☆
45.1
 Longshot
10 El Gran Ruchacha
J Alvarado
D Salvador
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.4
  
5 Cavalry Call —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 7/2
6
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
9 Glen Road —
J A Torres
E W West
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
4 Silversary —
D Machado
M P Sims
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
43.5
  
7 Prince of Tides —
W Antongeorgi III
J Cruz
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Touch Money
S —
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W B Calhoun
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Divine Truth
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
R Moquett
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.7
Post · Horse
1
Soap Note
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Stewart
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.2
Post · Horse
6
Double Arrow
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Mitole Joe
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Williams
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.1
Post · Horse
10
El Gran Ruchacha
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
D Salvador
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.4
Post · Horse
5
Cavalry Call
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
9
Glen Road
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
E W West
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
4
Silversary
—
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
M P Sims
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.5
Post · Horse
7
Prince of Tides
—
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
J Cruz
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Kenwood Street, #2 Surfin' M.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$49,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won three races
Weight120 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have never won three races. Three year olds, 120 lbs.; older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000
Storyline
This two-turn claimer tests whether rail-drawn #1 Final Thoughts can back up his recent 78 speed figure against #7 Bird the Legend, who possesses superior tactical route class.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
1
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Surfin' M and #4 Kenwood Street go for the lead together. #9 Fight the Power and #7 Bird the Legend drop to the back. 245318679
  2. Middle around the turn #2 Surfin' M and #4 Kenwood Street keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 245318769
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Romantic Lead is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #3 Roadswitcher, #7 Bird the Legend and #9 Fight the Power. Tiring: #2 Surfin' M and #4 Kenwood Street. 537198624

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.0%
Price horse: Bird the Legend (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Final Thoughts EP Neutral
F Arrieta
T L Van Berg
 2/1
18
★★★★☆
62.5
 Top Pick
7 Bird the Legend P Fits
J A Torres
R Brisset
 7/2
17
★★★★☆
61.8
 Value Play
3 Roadswitcher EP Neutral
W Antongeorgi III
C W Axmaker
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
59.1
 Longshot
4 Kenwood Street E Misfit
M Nicholls
D Holden
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
5 Romantic Lead —
D Grisales Rave
G Esquivel
 30/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
8 Da Prince Is Right EP Neutral
J Alvarado
K LaRose
 3/1
10
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
6 Sotto Mo —
M Murrill
A M West
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
2 Surfin' M E Misfit
C A Torres
A Shorter
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
56.7
  
9 Fight the Power S Fits
C Montalvo
E Lopez
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
52.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Final Thoughts
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
T L Van Berg
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.5
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Bird the Legend
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Roadswitcher
EP Neutral
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
C W Axmaker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse
4
Kenwood Street
E Misfit
Jockey
M Nicholls
Trainer
D Holden
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
5
Romantic Lead
—
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
G Esquivel
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse
8
Da Prince Is Right
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
K LaRose
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse
6
Sotto Mo
—
Jockey
M Murrill
Trainer
A M West
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
2
Surfin' M
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
A Shorter
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.7
Post · Horse
9
Fight the Power
S Fits
Jockey
C Montalvo
Trainer
E Lopez
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #4 Roughnthepassenger, #10 Nueva Luna, #1 Magic Seeker.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$50,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have never won two races. Claiming Price $20,000
Storyline
#4 Roughnthepassenger enters off consecutive victories against Ohio-breds, and the central question is whether his current sharpness holds up against #3 Ides of Demarch and #8 Dancewhenyoucan shipping in from tougher circuits.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
1
P
4
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Magic Seeker, #10 Nueva Luna and #4 Roughnthepassenger all go for the lead. #8 Dancewhenyoucan and #5 Zafyre drop to the back. 1104116273958
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Magic Seeker, #10 Nueva Luna and #4 Roughnthepassenger keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 1104116273958
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #7 Super Costly has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Ides of Demarch, #8 Dancewhenyoucan and #9 Danzig's Dora. Tiring: #1 Magic Seeker, #10 Nueva Luna and #4 Roughnthepassenger. 7389521104116

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.9%
Price horse: Ides of Demarch (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Roughnthepassenger E Misfit
Y Hazlewood
T E Hamm
 7/2
24
★★★★☆
69.5
 Top Pick
3 Ides of Demarch P Fits
E Morales
K Martinez
 10/1
12
★★★★☆
63.8
 Value Play
8 Dancewhenyoucan S Fits
M Gutierrez
M A Shirer
 3/1
10
★★★★☆
62.0
  
5 Zafyre P Fits
D Machado
J Antonuik
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
61.9
  
7 Super Costly P Fits
L Saez
Y R Orantes
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
60.6
 Longshot
10 Nueva Luna E Misfit
G Corrales
I Bahena
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
1 Magic Seeker E Misfit
E Esquivel
G Garcia
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
59.0
  
9 Danzig's Dora P Fits
J Alvarado
K LaRose
 9/2
6
★★★☆☆
57.3
  
6 Shanett E Misfit
M Fernandez
B A Vanden Berg
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.2
  
11 Ashkenazi E Misfit
A Cedillo
R Hiles
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
56.7
  
2 Dip Fantasia EP Neutral
D Sheehy
M Stidham
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
56.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Roughnthepassenger
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
T E Hamm
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.5
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Ides of Demarch
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
K Martinez
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
8
Dancewhenyoucan
S Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
M A Shirer
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
5
Zafyre
P Fits
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
J Antonuik
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Super Costly
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
Y R Orantes
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse
10
Nueva Luna
E Misfit
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
I Bahena
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse
1
Magic Seeker
E Misfit
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
G Garcia
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse
9
Danzig's Dora
P Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
K LaRose
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse
6
Shanett
E Misfit
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse
11
Ashkenazi
E Misfit
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
R Hiles
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.7
Post · Horse
2
Dip Fantasia
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M Stidham
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens, fillies two years old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
A massive sixteen-horse juvenile filly maiden creates immense traffic potential, leaving #16 Maple Ridge to overcome a wide post against #9 Juana Margarita cutting back from tough Saratoga assignments.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.7%
Price horse: Juana Margarita (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
16 Maple Ridge —
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 8/1
17
★★★☆☆
54.8
 Top Pick
9 Juana Margarita —
I Ortiz, Jr.
K G McPeek
 3/1
12
★★★☆☆
52.0
 Value Play
5 Princess Chanty —
L Fuenmayor
C Munoz
 9/2
11
★★★☆☆
51.4
  
3 Oro Estrella —
A Concepcion
W B Calhoun
 8/1
9
★★★☆☆
49.3
  
14 Bride E —
J A Torres
T D Vance
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
46.9
 Longshot
13 Lily's Revenge P —
J R Velazquez
G Weaver
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
15 Opalite Dust —
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
8 Livelaughloy —
M Murrill
A M West
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
7 Aloha Magic —
D Cannon
W M Catalano
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.4
  
4 Curlin's Court —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
6 Aloha Kim S —
W Antongeorgi III
T S Wismer
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.6
  
11 Fan's Choice —
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
2 Hips of a Lady —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.4
  
10 Riding Coattails —
J Rosario
R Diodoro
 6/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.0
  
12 Dagny Taggart —
L Saez
G R Arnold II
 5/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.2
  
1 Amavida E —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 20/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
16
Maple Ridge
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.8
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Juana Margarita
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.0
Post · Horse
5
Princess Chanty
—
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Munoz
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
3
Oro Estrella
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W B Calhoun
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.3
Post · Horse Longshot
14
Bride
E —
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
T D Vance
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.9
Post · Horse
13
Lily's Revenge
P —
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
G Weaver
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
15
Opalite Dust
—
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
8
Livelaughloy
—
Jockey
M Murrill
Trainer
A M West
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
7
Aloha Magic
—
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
W M Catalano
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.4
Post · Horse
4
Curlin's Court
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
6
Aloha Kim
S —
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
T S Wismer
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.6
Post · Horse
11
Fan's Choice
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
Post · Horse
2
Hips of a Lady
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.4
Post · Horse
10
Riding Coattails
—
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
R Diodoro
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.0
Post · Horse
12
Dagny Taggart
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G R Arnold II
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.2
Post · Horse
1
Amavida
E —
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #6 Freaks Go, #4 Scythia, #8 Ships Inn.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less Or Which Have Broken Their Maiden In A Maiden
Purse$63,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races or claiming price $50,000 or less
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won two races or claiming price $50,000 or less
Storyline
#6 Freaks Go returns from a solid 83 speed figure runner-up finish at Churchill Downs, but she faces serious pace pressure from #4 Scythia, who returns off a layoff with fast morning drills.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
2
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #8 Ships Inn, #4 Scythia and #6 Freaks Go all go for the lead. #3 Lady Valor drops to the back. 84612573
  2. Middle around the turn #8 Ships Inn, #4 Scythia and #6 Freaks Go keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 84612573
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Miss Elle has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Lady Valor and #7 Bet the Gray. Tiring: #8 Ships Inn, #4 Scythia and #6 Freaks Go. 53712846

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.8%
Price horse: Scythia (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Freaks Go E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
R G Crichton
 7/2
16
★★★★☆
64.8
 Top Pick
4 Scythia E Misfit
Y Hazlewood
B L King
 15/1
15
★★★★☆
64.2
 Value Play
3 Lady Valor S Fits
J Alvarado
M B Campbell
 20/1
13
★★★★☆
63.4
 Longshot
5 Miss Elle P Fits
J Rosario
R Medina
 5/1
12
★★★★☆
62.7
  
7 Bet the Gray P Fits
J R Velazquez
M Williams
 9/2
12
★★★★☆
62.2
  
2 Quick to Charm EP Neutral
F Arrieta
M Nihei
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
61.8
  
8 Ships Inn E Misfit
L Saez
G D Foley
 3/1
11
★★★★☆
61.4
  
1 Bourbon Notes EP Neutral
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
61.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Freaks Go
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
R G Crichton
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Scythia
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
B L King
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Lady Valor
S Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
M B Campbell
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse
5
Miss Elle
P Fits
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
R Medina
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
7
Bet the Gray
P Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M Williams
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
2
Quick to Charm
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M Nihei
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
8
Ships Inn
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G D Foley
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
1
Bourbon Notes
EP Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter On The Turf Allowed 4 Lbs
Purse$140,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have started for a claiming price of $50,000 or less and which have never won two races. 4 lbs. allowance
Storyline
Wesley Ward holds a strong hand with #4 Outfielder and #3 Schwarzenegger, but they must turn back #1 Two Seven O, who brings triple-digit turf speed figures from the summer.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
2
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Outfielder should break on top. #7 Oscar's Hope and #2 Rebel With a Cause drop to the back. 43568127
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 43568127
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Outfielder is still in front. Moving forward: #6 Yukon Striker, #8 Bobrovsky and #1 Two Seven O. 43568127

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.0%
Price horse: Outfielder (8/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (3 tickets identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
  Go Pro
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Two Seven O S Neutral
F Arrieta
D Fawkes
 20/1
17
★★★★☆
68.6
 Top Pick
4 Outfielder E Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
W A Ward
 8/5
16
★★★★☆
68.0
 Value Play
3 Schwarzenegger EP Fits
T Gaffalione
W A Ward
 5/2
15
★★★★☆
67.7
  
5 Throckmorton EP Fits
L Saez
C Summers
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
66.3
 Longshot
2 Rebel With a Cause S Neutral
J R Velazquez
L Robson
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
65.9
  
6 Yukon Striker P Neutral
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 12/1
12
★★★★☆
65.3
  
8 Bobrovsky P Neutral
J Alvarado
D L Romans
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
61.5
  
7 Oscar's Hope S Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K LaRose
 9/2
7
★★★★☆
61.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Two Seven O
S Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D Fawkes
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.6
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Outfielder
E Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
W A Ward
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse
3
Schwarzenegger
EP Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
W A Ward
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.7
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Throckmorton
EP Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Summers
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse
2
Rebel With a Cause
S Neutral
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
L Robson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.9
Post · Horse
6
Yukon Striker
P Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse
8
Bobrovsky
P Neutral
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
D L Romans
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
7
Oscar's Hope
S Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K LaRose
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size14
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens, fillies two years old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
A crowded field of fourteen two-year-old fillies hinges on whether #3 La Noche Negra can translate her strong 79 Churchill figure to Keeneland, or if #5 Candy Illusion's California speed and 46.40 workout prevail.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 12.8%
Price horse: Candy Illusion (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 La Noche Negra S —
L Fuenmayor
C Munoz
 10/1
13
★★★☆☆
53.7
 Top Pick
5 Candy Illusion —
U Rispoli
D F O'Neill
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
53.7
 Value Play
1 Pearl Lake —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
51.1
  
8 Joy of Life EP —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 7/2
9
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
11 Mayflower Girl —
J Rosario
R B Hess, Jr.
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.9
  
10 Won'tcatchmecryan EP —
J A Torres
C A David
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
48.8
 Longshot
12 Babylon Sister —
J L Ortiz
K G McPeek
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
13 Epic Dawn —
J Loveberry
L Rivelli
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
48.0
  
2 Palestra
T Gaffalione
D Beckman
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
46.4
  
9 It's the Law —
J R Velazquez
P Eurton
 5/1
5
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
7 Where's the Law —
A Concepcion
W B Calhoun
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
46.0
  
4 Hot Fries —
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
14 Winter White —
G Corrales
N W Casse
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.1
  
6 Dustinthewin —
A Beschizza
S Donjuan
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
La Noche Negra
S —
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Munoz
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.7
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Candy Illusion
—
Jockey
U Rispoli
Trainer
D F O'Neill
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.7
Post · Horse
1
Pearl Lake
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.1
Post · Horse
8
Joy of Life
EP —
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse
11
Mayflower Girl
—
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
R B Hess, Jr.
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.9
Post · Horse Longshot
10
Won'tcatchmecryan
EP —
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C A David
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.8
Post · Horse
12
Babylon Sister
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K G McPeek
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
13
Epic Dawn
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
L Rivelli
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.0
Post · Horse
2
Palestra
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Beckman
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.4
Post · Horse
9
It's the Law
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
P Eurton
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
7
Where's the Law
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W B Calhoun
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
4
Hot Fries
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
14
Winter White
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
N W Casse
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.1
Post · Horse
6
Dustinthewin
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
S Donjuan
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #5 Salamis, #13 Tonka Warrior, #6 Smokey Mandate.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Rating, Restricted, Or State Bred Or Which Have Not W
Purse$150,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:16 PM ET
Field Size13
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won three races other than maiden, claiming, starter, or restricted
Weight122 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have never won three races other than maiden, claiming, starter, or restricted. 122 lbs
Storyline
High-caliber turf horses collide as #2 Highway Robber looks to return to his graded-stakes form against #12 Taking Candy and #5 Salamis, who exit productive Saratoga turf campaigns.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
2
P
2
S
6

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #13 Tonka Warrior, #6 Smokey Mandate and #5 Salamis all go for the lead. #12 Taking Candy and #8 Noises Off drop to the back. 13651103241197812
  2. Middle around the turn #13 Tonka Warrior, #6 Smokey Mandate and #5 Salamis keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 13651103241197812
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Giocoso has taken over in front. Moving forward: #11 Poster, #3 Anegada and #9 Facteur Cheval. Tiring: #1 Funtastic Again, #10 Ancient Rome and #13 Tonka Warrior. 41139278121101365

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 18.8%
Price horse: Taking Candy (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Highway Robber P Fits
T Gaffalione
B A Lynch
 3/1
19
★★★★☆
73.0
 Top Pick
12 Taking Candy S Fits
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 5/1
11
★★★★☆
68.5
 Value Play
5 Salamis E Misfit
U Rispoli
C C Brown
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
68.4
  
13 Tonka Warrior E Misfit
T Gaffalione
M Robertson
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
66.4
 Longshot
3 Anegada P Fits
J R Velazquez
M J Maker
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
64.5
  
11 Poster S Fits
R Bejarano
E G Harty
 8/1
6
★★★★☆
63.6
  
9 Facteur Cheval S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
M E Casse
 6/1
6
★★★★☆
63.6
  
7 Fort Washington S Fits
J Alvarado
C R McGaughey III
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
63.1
  
8 Noises Off S Fits
J Rosario
P H Lobo
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
62.8
  
1 Funtastic Again EP Neutral
L Saez
W A Ward
 9/2
6
★★★★☆
62.8
  
6 Smokey Mandate E Misfit
J Graham
M J Maker
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
62.6
  
4 Giocoso S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
J K Desormeaux
 20/1
5
★★★★☆
61.7
  
10 Ancient Rome EP Neutral
D Sheehy
E Vaughan
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
58.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Highway Robber
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B A Lynch
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.0
Post · Horse Value Play
12
Taking Candy
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
5
Salamis
E Misfit
Jockey
U Rispoli
Trainer
C C Brown
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse Longshot
13
Tonka Warrior
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M Robertson
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse
3
Anegada
P Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M J Maker
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
11
Poster
S Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
E G Harty
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
9
Facteur Cheval
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
M E Casse
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
7
Fort Washington
S Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.1
Post · Horse
8
Noises Off
S Fits
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
P H Lobo
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
1
Funtastic Again
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
W A Ward
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
6
Smokey Mandate
E Misfit
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
M J Maker
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
4
Giocoso
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse
10
Ancient Rome
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
E Vaughan
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #1 Classic Cause, #2 D Bigalow.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$48,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:48 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree year olds
Weight120 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For maidens, three years old and upward. Three year olds, 120 lbs.; older, 124 lbs
Storyline
#1 Classic Cause towers over this field on speed figures and morning drills for Wesley Ward, but from the rail at seven furlongs, any stumble leaves the race open for #2 D Bigalow.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
5
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 D Bigalow and #1 Classic Cause go for the lead together. #15 Phantom Slayer and #11 Can't Stop Willis drop to the back. 21751316469831410121115
  2. Middle around the turn #2 D Bigalow and #1 Classic Cause keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 21756913316104128141115
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Mayweather has taken over in front. Moving forward: #9 Stoic Sage, #3 Terre Haute and #7 Fast Jimmy. Tiring: #5 Tapit's Gunner, #13 Page Two and #2 D Bigalow. 69371051113121621514814

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 42.9%
Price horse: D Bigalow (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Classic Cause E Misfit
Y Hazlewood
W A Ward
 7/2
43
★★★★☆
70.8
 Top Pick
2 D Bigalow E Misfit
T Gaffalione
D Fawkes
 4/1
15
★★★★☆
61.9
 Value Play
11 Can't Stop Willis S Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
54.3
 Longshot
9 Stoic Sage P Fits
E Morales
C Richard
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
51.8
  
6 Mayweather P Fits
B Curtis
M W McCarthy
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
50.5
  
12 Camino P Fits
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.6
  
3 Terre Haute P Fits
A Beschizza
J Ennis
 5/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
10 Tuxedo Park P Fits
D Sheehy
J Corrigan
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
4 Greystar —
F Arrieta
S E Shaffer
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
48.3
  
14 Wavefront —
J L Ortiz
A Claire
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
15 Phantom Slayer S Fits
T Gaffalione
N W Casse
 9/2
3
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
16 Bourbonkoma —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 6/1
2
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
8 Life Boat —
L Saez
G R Arnold II
 10/1
2
★★★☆☆
43.4
  
7 Fast Jimmy EP Neutral
D Cannon
K LaRose
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
43.3
  
5 Tapit's Gunner EP Neutral
M Gutierrez
D Stewart
 6/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.7
  
13 Page Two EP Neutral
M Gutierrez
V H Oliver
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Classic Cause
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
W A Ward
43
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.8
Post · Horse Value Play
2
D Bigalow
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Fawkes
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Can't Stop Willis
S Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
9
Stoic Sage
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
C Richard
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.8
Post · Horse
6
Mayweather
P Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M W McCarthy
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
12
Camino
P Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.6
Post · Horse
3
Terre Haute
P Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J Ennis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
10
Tuxedo Park
P Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Corrigan
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
4
Greystar
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
S E Shaffer
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.3
Post · Horse
14
Wavefront
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
A Claire
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
15
Phantom Slayer
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
N W Casse
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
16
Bourbonkoma
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
8
Life Boat
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G R Arnold II
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.4
Post · Horse
7
Fast Jimmy
EP Neutral
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
K LaRose
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.3
Post · Horse
5
Tapit's Gunner
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Stewart
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.7
Post · Horse
13
Page Two
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
V H Oliver
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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