Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 10.

2026-10-09 Race 10 Morning Card
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Card signals
Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R6
Real Macho #6
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Colonel Caliente #7
10/1 ML
Deepest field
R2
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R2
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland's ten-race program features competitive turf routes, juvenile maiden sprints, and a marathon $400,000 turf stakes in Race 9 where Just a Touch clashes with Navy Seal at twelve furlongs. Competitive claiming sprints bookend the middle of the card, where formful contenders face challenging pace shapes around the one-turn dirt configuration. Across the card, price opportunities emerge underneath morning-line favorites vulnerable to early pressure, notably in Races 1, 6, and 8.
Races 10 Status Completed View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #1 Willing N Abled, #8 Cruisin and Boozin, #2 Musical.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$50,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed from the rail sets the tone as #1 Willing N Abled brings sharp form from Thistledown, but must withstand early pressure from #5 Tiger's Legacy who exits back-to-back runner-up efforts against tougher claiming company at Churchill Downs.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
1
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Willing N Abled, #8 Cruisin and Boozin and #3 Colonel Compton all go for the lead. #4 War Munny and #6 Horsetron Supreme drop to the back. 18325764
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Willing N Abled, #8 Cruisin and Boozin and #3 Colonel Compton keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 18325764
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Horsetron Supreme has taken over in front. Moving forward: #7 Colonel Caliente and #4 War Munny. Tiring: #1 Willing N Abled, #8 Cruisin and Boozin and #3 Colonel Compton. 67451832

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.2%
Price horse: Tiger's Legacy (2/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Willing N Abled E Misfit
J Loveberry
L Rivelli
 3/1
19
★★★★☆
66.7
 Top Pick
5 Tiger's Legacy EP Neutral
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 2/1
19
★★★★☆
66.7
 Value Play
8 Cruisin and Boozin E Misfit
S Gonzalez
K Jarvis
 20/1
13
★★★★☆
63.6
  
2 Musical E Misfit
C A Torres
K Martinez
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
63.0
  
7 Colonel Caliente P Fits
L Saez
T Molloy
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
62.3
 Longshot
4 War Munny S Fits
E Esquivel
J L Grubbs
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
60.6
  
6 Horsetron Supreme S Fits
A Jimenez
M B Campbell
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
59.2
  
3 Colonel Compton E Misfit
E Morales
G F House
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
58.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Willing N Abled
E Misfit
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
L Rivelli
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Tiger's Legacy
EP Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.7
Post · Horse
8
Cruisin and Boozin
E Misfit
Jockey
S Gonzalez
Trainer
K Jarvis
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
2
Musical
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
K Martinez
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Colonel Caliente
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
T Molloy
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.3
Post · Horse
4
War Munny
S Fits
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
J L Grubbs
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse
6
Horsetron Supreme
S Fits
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
M B Campbell
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.2
Post · Horse
3
Colonel Compton
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G F House
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #3 Honor and Courage, #1 Mambo Man.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A sprawling field of juvenile maidens at seven furlongs turns on whether #16 Amazing Max can overcome an extreme outside post for Brad Cox after a useful debut third at Ellis Park, or if experienced runner #14 Ditlihi takes a step forward switching back to dirt.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Mambo Man and #3 Honor and Courage go for the lead together. #14 Ditlihi drops to the back. 13248510121615611137914
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Mambo Man and #3 Honor and Courage keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 13248571012916156111314
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Windsock has taken over in front. Moving forward: #4 Tiz General, #7 Chasing Em and #9 Faraz. Tiring: #1 Mambo Man and #3 Honor and Courage. 24798510121416156111313

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 17.8%
Price horse: Ditlihi (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
16 Amazing Max —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
18
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Top Pick
14 Ditlihi S Fits
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 10/1
17
★★★☆☆
54.1
 Value Play
4 Tiz General EP Neutral
L Fuenmayor
C Munoz
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
48.1
 Longshot
2 Windsock EP Neutral
C A Torres
R Brisset
 4/1
8
★★★☆☆
47.4
  
8 High Status —
A Espinoza
R C Bryner
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
46.8
  
7 Chasing Em P Fits
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
5 Very Gifted —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
11 Harborcoat —
W Antongeorgi III
H Holsapple
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
43.8
  
10 Mysterical —
F Arrieta
D L Anderson
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
43.6
  
13 Trixie Barry —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
6 Blame Thrower —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
41.1
  
3 Honor and Courage E Misfit
A Beschizza
T D Vance
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
40.9
  
12 Big Mike Fink —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 3/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.2
  
1 Mambo Man E Misfit
D Machado
K A Fernandez
 20/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.3
  
15 Smart N Centsible —
G Corrales
J K Sweezey
 20/1
2
★★☆☆☆
37.6
  
9 Faraz P Fits
D Grisales Rave
A Cambray
 30/1
1
★★☆☆☆
30.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
16
Amazing Max
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse Value Play
14
Ditlihi
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Tiz General
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Munoz
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.1
Post · Horse
2
Windsock
EP Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.4
Post · Horse
8
High Status
—
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
R C Bryner
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
7
Chasing Em
P Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
5
Very Gifted
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
11
Harborcoat
—
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
H Holsapple
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
Post · Horse
10
Mysterical
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D L Anderson
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse
13
Trixie Barry
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
Post · Horse
6
Blame Thrower
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.1
Post · Horse
3
Honor and Courage
E Misfit
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
T D Vance
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.9
Post · Horse
12
Big Mike Fink
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.2
Post · Horse
1
Mambo Man
E Misfit
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
K A Fernandez
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.3
Post · Horse
15
Smart N Centsible
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.6
Post · Horse
9
Faraz
P Fits
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
A Cambray
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 30.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Or Starter At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Allowed 2 Lbs
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
AllowanceAllowed 2 Lbs
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The turf route centers on whether #1 Silver Road can deliver an efficient performance from the rail for Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz, Jr. against seasoned turf router #8 Smoke, who broke his maiden at Ellis Park and drops out of Kentucky Downs company.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
3
P
0
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #7 Lecompte's Run should break on top. #3 Estardotoo drops to the back. 75486213
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 74258613
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #7 Lecompte's Run is still in front. Moving forward: #3 Estardotoo. Tiring: #5 Casablanca Queen. 74258613

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.9%
Price horse: Smoke (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Silver Road —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 9/2
20
★★★★☆
64.7
 Top Pick
8 Smoke EP Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 5/2
18
★★★★☆
63.8
 Value Play
4 Lucky Bernadine —
M Gutierrez
B H Cox
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
61.1
  
6 Dazzling EP Fits
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 3/1
12
★★★★☆
60.0
  
3 Estardotoo S Neutral
D Grisales Rave
G Esquivel
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
59.9
  
7 Lecompte's Run E Neutral
A Achard
J Ennis
 10/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.8
 Longshot
2 Early Autumn —
J R Velazquez
J C Servis
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
5 Casablanca Queen EP Fits
L Saez
J F D'Angelo
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
55.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Silver Road
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Smoke
EP Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
4
Lucky Bernadine
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B H Cox
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse
6
Dazzling
EP Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.0
Post · Horse
3
Estardotoo
S Neutral
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
G Esquivel
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Lecompte's Run
E Neutral
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
J Ennis
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.8
Post · Horse
2
Early Autumn
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
J C Servis
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse
5
Casablanca Queen
EP Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J F D'Angelo
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #8 Watershed Moment, #7 Twisted Viper.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Years Old And Upward Fillies And Mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Barnmates #8 Watershed Moment and #4 Summer Date clash for trainer Robert Medina, with Watershed Moment seeking to build on two prior runner-up efforts at Churchill and Keeneland while stretching out over the dirt course.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #8 Watershed Moment and #7 Twisted Viper go for the lead together. #5 Got What I Got and #3 Rotisserie drop to the back. 87162435
  2. Middle around the turn #8 Watershed Moment and #7 Twisted Viper keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 87162435
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Lunar Loop has taken over in front. Moving forward: #4 Summer Date, #3 Rotisserie and #5 Got What I Got. Tiring: #6 Wangshu, #8 Watershed Moment and #7 Twisted Viper. 24315687

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.6%
Price horse: Summer Date (15/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Watershed Moment E Misfit
R Bejarano
R Medina
 9/2
20
★★★☆☆
55.3
 Top Pick
4 Summer Date P Fits
J Alvarado
R Medina
 15/1
16
★★★☆☆
53.4
 Value Play
2 Lunar Loop P Fits
M Gutierrez
R Hiles
 7/2
14
★★★☆☆
52.3
  
7 Twisted Viper E Misfit
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 3/1
13
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
3 Rotisserie P Fits
D Sheehy
M E Lauer
 20/1
11
★★★☆☆
50.2
  
1 Pampered —
A Concepcion
A McKeever
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
49.3
 Longshot
5 Got What I Got S Fits
J A Torres
J A Hiles
 4/1
9
★★★☆☆
49.0
  
6 Wangshu EP Neutral
V R Carrasco
A McKeever
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Watershed Moment
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Medina
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.3
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Summer Date
P Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Medina
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.4
Post · Horse
2
Lunar Loop
P Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
R Hiles
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.3
Post · Horse
7
Twisted Viper
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
Post · Horse
3
Rotisserie
P Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M E Lauer
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Pampered
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A McKeever
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.3
Post · Horse
5
Got What I Got
S Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J A Hiles
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.0
Post · Horse
6
Wangshu
EP Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
A McKeever
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size15
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A crowded two-year-old turf mile features #4 Castle Pines looking to graduate after a runner-up finish at Kentucky Downs, while #13 Mahogany Dream must negotiate an outside draw off a third-place turf effort on September 7.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 16.7%
Price horse: Mahogany Dream (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Castle Pines —
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 6/1
17
★★★☆☆
58.5
 Top Pick
13 Mahogany Dream S —
J Loveberry
N G Goodwin
 10/1
12
★★★☆☆
55.8
 Value Play
2 Arsenal Star —
I Ortiz, Jr.
W A Ward
 6/1
12
★★★☆☆
55.6
  
3 Indigo Mo E —
D Cannon
M B Campbell
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.2
  
8 Rogue Meteor —
M Gutierrez
B A Lynch
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
11 Oscar Cheer —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
51.7
  
7 Uncle Anthony —
L Saez
G R Arnold II
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.4
  
12 Apotheon P —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.7
  
9 Lagos —
D Sheehy
M J Maker
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.9
  
5 Col Frank Slade —
J R Velazquez
R Mott
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.5
  
1 Luckyloun —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.5
  
14 Eight Hundred —
M Nicholls
J Hamilton
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
6 Mo Way —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.7
  
15 Center Fielder —
M Meeks
D Salvador
 30/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.4
  
10 Gandy Dancer —
A Beschizza
J Wojczynski
 30/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Castle Pines
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
Post · Horse Value Play
13
Mahogany Dream
S —
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
N G Goodwin
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.8
Post · Horse
2
Arsenal Star
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
W A Ward
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.6
Post · Horse
3
Indigo Mo
E —
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
M B Campbell
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse
8
Rogue Meteor
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B A Lynch
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
11
Oscar Cheer
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
Post · Horse
7
Uncle Anthony
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G R Arnold II
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse
12
Apotheon
P —
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.7
Post · Horse
9
Lagos
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M J Maker
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.9
Post · Horse
5
Col Frank Slade
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
R Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.5
Post · Horse
1
Luckyloun
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.5
Post · Horse
14
Eight Hundred
—
Jockey
M Nicholls
Trainer
J Hamilton
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
6
Mo Way
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.7
Post · Horse
15
Center Fielder
—
Jockey
M Meeks
Trainer
D Salvador
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.4
Post · Horse
10
Gandy Dancer
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J Wojczynski
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 15-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Light the Way, #3 Magic Grant.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$63,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The two-turn route tests whether #6 Real Macho can capitalize on consistent Churchill Downs allowance form, or if longshot #1 Smoken Boy can turn the tables after finishing second at Churchill on September 16.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
1
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Light the Way should break on top. #6 Real Macho and #8 Neon Nights drop to the back. 43521786
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Light the Way and #3 Magic Grant keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 43521786
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Real Fast is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #2 Timeless Victory, #8 Neon Nights and #6 Real Macho. Tiring: #4 Light the Way and #3 Magic Grant. 52867143

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.9%
Price horse: Light the Way (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Real Macho S Fits
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 2/1
25
★★★★☆
71.8
 Top Pick
4 Light the Way E Misfit
F Arrieta
M J Maker
 3/1
20
★★★★☆
70.1
 Value Play
7 Onthestage P Fits
M Fernandez
T L Van Berg
 4/1
17
★★★★☆
68.4
  
5 Real Fast —
Y Hazlewood
B L King
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
63.9
  
1 Smoken Boy EP Neutral
C A Emigh
B A Vanden Berg
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
63.0
 Longshot
8 Neon Nights S Fits
B Curtis
A Shorter
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
62.1
  
2 Timeless Victory EP Neutral
L Saez
J C Servis
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
3 Magic Grant E Misfit
D Cannon
J B Roberts
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
59.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Real Macho
S Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Light the Way
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
M J Maker
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse
7
Onthestage
P Fits
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
T L Van Berg
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse
5
Real Fast
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
B L King
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Smoken Boy
EP Neutral
Jockey
C A Emigh
Trainer
B A Vanden Berg
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
8
Neon Nights
S Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
2
Timeless Victory
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J C Servis
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
3
Magic Grant
E Misfit
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
J B Roberts
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size15
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A full field of juvenile turf routers hinges on whether rail-drawn #1 Seminal can build on his third-place finish at Kentucky Downs for Brad Cox, or if experienced #6 Ferrous breaks through after three consecutive in-the-money finishes.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 19.4%
Price horse: Ferrous (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Seminal EP —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 3/1
19
★★★☆☆
60.0
 Top Pick
6 Ferrous S —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 12/1
14
★★★☆☆
56.9
 Value Play
5 Tiger Man —
J L Ortiz
W A Ward
 9/2
12
★★★☆☆
56.0
  
12 April Fools —
J Castellano
M E Casse
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.6
  
7 Air Devil —
U Rispoli
J M Antonucci
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.4
 Longshot
3 Family Crest —
J A Torres
R Mott
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.3
  
11 Cartography —
F Arrieta
E G Harty
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.3
  
8 Innocent No More S —
L Saez
G R Arnold II
 5/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
14 Psalm One Eighteen —
J C Bealmear
C Anderson
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.6
  
10 Just Insight —
J R Velazquez
M J Maker
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
4 Cavalli —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.0
  
15 Craig Lane —
B Curtis
M W McCarthy
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.7
  
13 Brazen Caine —
L Saez
J C Servis
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
9 Traveling Banker —
A Beschizza
T Molloy
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.0
  
2 Cairo Charlie —
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 50/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Seminal
EP —
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Ferrous
S —
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
5
Tiger Man
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
W A Ward
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse
12
April Fools
—
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
M E Casse
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.6
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Air Devil
—
Jockey
U Rispoli
Trainer
J M Antonucci
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.4
Post · Horse
3
Family Crest
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.3
Post · Horse
11
Cartography
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E G Harty
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.3
Post · Horse
8
Innocent No More
S —
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G R Arnold II
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
14
Psalm One Eighteen
—
Jockey
J C Bealmear
Trainer
C Anderson
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
10
Just Insight
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M J Maker
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
4
Cavalli
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
15
Craig Lane
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M W McCarthy
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.7
Post · Horse
13
Brazen Caine
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J C Servis
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
9
Traveling Banker
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
T Molloy
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.0
Post · Horse
2
Cairo Charlie
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 15-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #5 Cold Spell, #7 Chatter, #6 Feasible.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed clash at six furlongs where #5 Cold Spell looks to duplicate his Saratoga maiden-breaking performance, but faces intense heat from #7 Chatter who sports a blazing 34.62 three-furlong workout on October 4.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
3
P
0
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 You're in Heaven, #5 Cold Spell and #7 Chatter all go for the lead. 4576231
  2. Middle around the turn #4 You're in Heaven, #5 Cold Spell and #7 Chatter keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 4576231
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Shared Vision has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Judicious and #1 Debbie Doll. Tiring: #4 You're in Heaven, #5 Cold Spell and #7 Chatter. 2314576

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.0%
Price horse: Chatter (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Cold Spell E Misfit
J R Velazquez
W A Ward
 1/1
21
★★★★☆
66.9
 Top Pick
7 Chatter E Misfit
T Gaffalione
S A Joseph, Jr.
 8/1
20
★★★★☆
66.4
 Value Play
3 Judicious EP Neutral
F Arrieta
P D'Amato
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
63.8
 Longshot
6 Feasible E Misfit
L Saez
M A Shirer
 9/2
13
★★★★☆
62.9
  
2 Shared Vision EP Neutral
J L Ortiz
G R Arnold II
 5/1
12
★★★★☆
62.0
  
4 You're in Heaven E Misfit
C A Torres
D Stewart
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
60.8
  
1 Debbie Doll EP Neutral
J Alvarado
R Medina
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
60.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Cold Spell
E Misfit
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W A Ward
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
1/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.9
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Chatter
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Judicious
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
P D'Amato
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
6
Feasible
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M A Shirer
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse
2
Shared Vision
EP Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
G R Arnold II
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
4
You're in Heaven
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse
1
Debbie Doll
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Medina
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $400,000
Purse$400,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/2 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:16 PM ET
Field Size16
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The $400,000 marathon stakes tests stamina at twelve furlongs as #2 Just a Touch seeks back-to-back stakes victories following a win at Colonial Downs, while #4 Navy Seal stretches out with elite morning drills for Wesley Ward.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
4
P
8
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #8 Tiz Dashing should break on top. #13 Lambeth and #10 Vote No drop to the back. 81265915164712143111013
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 81265915164712143111013
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Goldeneye has taken over in front. Moving forward: #4 Navy Seal, #7 Limited Liability and #12 Rothschild. Tiring: #8 Tiz Dashing and #5 Echo Lane. 12684791516512143111013

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 20.9%
Price horse: Navy Seal (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Just a Touch EP Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 5/2
21
★★★★★
81.8
 Top Pick
4 Navy Seal P Neutral
J L Ortiz
W A Ward
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
79.4
 Value Play
7 Limited Liability P Neutral
L Saez
C R McGaughey III
 8/1
6
★★★★☆
71.5
 Longshot
5 Echo Lane EP Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
R G Crichton
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
71.3
  
15 Carcano —
J R Velazquez
V H Oliver
 9/2
6
★★★★☆
71.2
  
14 Sumood P Neutral
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
70.7
  
13 Lambeth P Neutral
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 4/1
6
★★★★☆
70.4
  
8 Tiz Dashing E Neutral
J Castellano
B Tagg
 9/2
5
★★★★☆
70.0
  
9 Layabout —
K J Asmussen
P L Biancone
 12/1
5
★★★★☆
69.5
  
6 English Actor EP Fits
J Alvarado
R Halden
 20/1
4
★★★★☆
67.8
  
1 Goldeneye EP Fits
E A Maldonado
P Eurton
 30/1
4
★★★★☆
67.7
  
3 Mercante P Neutral
J D Ramos
B Knippenberg
 20/1
4
★★★★☆
67.5
  
11 Desvio P Neutral
L Machado
M F Meyers
 8/1
4
★★★★☆
67.4
  
10 Vote No P Neutral
U Rispoli
K Danner
 6/1
4
★★★★☆
67.0
  
12 Rothschild P Neutral
A Concepcion
N W Casse
 30/1
2
★★★★☆
62.0
  
16 Ur Benja —
J Graham
J L Aranha
 50/1
2
★★★★☆
60.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Just a Touch
EP Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★★ 81.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Navy Seal
P Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
W A Ward
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.4
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Limited Liability
P Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C R McGaughey III
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
5
Echo Lane
EP Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
R G Crichton
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.3
Post · Horse
15
Carcano
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
V H Oliver
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.2
Post · Horse
14
Sumood
P Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.7
Post · Horse
13
Lambeth
P Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse
8
Tiz Dashing
E Neutral
Jockey
J Castellano
Trainer
B Tagg
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse
9
Layabout
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
P L Biancone
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.5
Post · Horse
6
English Actor
EP Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Halden
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
Post · Horse
1
Goldeneye
EP Fits
Jockey
E A Maldonado
Trainer
P Eurton
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.7
Post · Horse
3
Mercante
P Neutral
Jockey
J D Ramos
Trainer
B Knippenberg
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
11
Desvio
P Neutral
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
M F Meyers
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.4
Post · Horse
10
Vote No
P Neutral
Jockey
U Rispoli
Trainer
K Danner
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse
12
Rothschild
P Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
N W Casse
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
16
Ur Benja
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J L Aranha
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$85,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:48 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old Fillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The finale matches experienced juvenile filly #8 Tapit Nitro, who finished second at Churchill on September 18, against Mark Casse trainee #11 Storm Diva, who returns from a four-month freshening with fast morning breezes.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.1%
Price horse: Storm Diva (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Tapit Nitro —
I Ortiz, Jr.
R G Crichton
 4/1
23
★★★★☆
61.4
 Top Pick
11 Storm Diva E —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 7/2
22
★★★★☆
61.0
 Value Play
3 Bourbon Ice —
Y Hazlewood
B A Lynch
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.1
  
14 Made Up Stories —
J Loveberry
L Rivelli
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.2
 Longshot
12 Spur of the Moment E —
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.4
  
1 Erica's Beach —
L Saez
M E Casse
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.9
  
15 Amoaray —
S Pauly
B Knippenberg
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.4
  
4 Jazzabelle —
J R Velazquez
B P Walsh
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
13 Great Grenzen —
L Saez
V H Oliver
 10/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
7 Keep —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 5/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.4
  
10 Quiet Storm —
U Rispoli
J M Antonucci
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
9 Big Luz —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
K G McPeek
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.1
  
6 Selah Breeze —
J A Torres
S A Kurtz
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.8
  
2 Peppa Mint Pattie —
L Machado
B Colebrook
 6/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
16 Riding the Pine —
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
5 Queen of the Fleet —
D Cannon
J Cruz
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
40.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Tapit Nitro
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
R G Crichton
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Storm Diva
E —
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
3
Bourbon Ice
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
B A Lynch
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.1
Post · Horse Longshot
14
Made Up Stories
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
L Rivelli
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse
12
Spur of the Moment
E —
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.4
Post · Horse
1
Erica's Beach
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M E Casse
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.9
Post · Horse
15
Amoaray
—
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
B Knippenberg
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.4
Post · Horse
4
Jazzabelle
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
B P Walsh
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
13
Great Grenzen
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
V H Oliver
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
7
Keep
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.4
Post · Horse
10
Quiet Storm
—
Jockey
U Rispoli
Trainer
J M Antonucci
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
9
Big Luz
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.1
Post · Horse
6
Selah Breeze
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
S A Kurtz
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
Post · Horse
2
Peppa Mint Pattie
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
16
Riding the Pine
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
Post · Horse
5
Queen of the Fleet
—
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
J Cruz
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro