Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 1.

2026-10-11 Race 1 Morning Card
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Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R1
Indy Charges On #3
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Bebedouro #2
6/1 ML
Deepest field
R5
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R1
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland presents a balanced nine-race Saturday program highlighted by the $400,000 turf sprint stakes in Race 8, where high-class sprinters collide at five and one-half furlongs. Strong foundational anchors appear early and late on the card with #3 Indy Charges On dropping in to head Race 1 and West Coast shipper #10 Newton commanding Race 9. Value seekers will find attractive multi-horse turf puzzles in Races 5 and 8, where pace pressure and post dynamics create lucrative exotic opportunities.
Races 9 Status Completed View Morning
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Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #3 Indy Charges On, #1 Pike Place.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $20,000 Or Less In 2025 - 2026
Purse$69,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size6
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The opener turns on whether #3 Indy Charges On can carry his commanding Mid-Atlantic speed figures to Keeneland while stretching out around two turns. The main danger is #1 Pike Place, who won with a triple-digit 100 speed figure at Oaklawn Park in May and secures the rail advantage, while #2 Bebedouro lurks as a potential spoiler if the pace gets contested.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
2
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Indy Charges On should break on top. #5 Creative Minister drops to the back. 312645
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Indy Charges On and #1 Pike Place keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 312645
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Trusty Rusty has taken over in front. Moving forward: #5 Creative Minister. Tiring: #3 Indy Charges On and #1 Pike Place. 425631

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 39.9%
Price horse: Pike Place (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Indy Charges On E Misfit
J L Ortiz
L Gaudet
 8/5
40
★★★★☆
78.5
 Top Pick
1 Pike Place E Misfit
F Arrieta
T L Van Berg
 9/2
20
★★★★☆
72.7
 Value Play
4 Trusty Rusty P Fits
L Saez
R B Hess, Jr.
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
70.6
  
2 Bebedouro EP Neutral
Y Hazlewood
C Williams
 6/1
11
★★★★☆
67.6
 Longshot
5 Creative Minister P Fits
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 4/1
8
★★★★☆
64.7
  
6 Ur Benja —
J Graham
J L Aranha
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
61.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Indy Charges On
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
L Gaudet
40
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 78.5
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Pike Place
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
T L Van Berg
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.7
Post · Horse
4
Trusty Rusty
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
R B Hess, Jr.
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.6
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Bebedouro
EP Neutral
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
C Williams
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse
5
Creative Minister
P Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse
6
Ur Benja
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J L Aranha
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #6 Straitshootinlarry, #14 Wicked Gun.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size14
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A sprawling 14-horse maiden route tests #10 Diamond Eyed Jack, who holds the field's highest speed figures but must negotiate a wide post draw into the first turn. He faces a battle with #12 Road Trippin and Ward trainee #6 Straitshootinlarry, while longshot #11 Hyperlink aims to capitalize from the back if the early pace collapses.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
6
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Straitshootinlarry should break on top. #13 Working for Glory and #3 Unionista drop to the back. 6145117819241012313
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Straitshootinlarry and #14 Wicked Gun keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 6145118127410129313
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #8 Flume's Vino has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Soho Jimmy, #2 Mr. All In and #3 Unionista. Tiring: #5 Page Two, #11 Hyperlink and #6 Straitshootinlarry. 8123410125117139614

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 22.7%
Price horse: Road Trippin (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Diamond Eyed Jack P Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 5/2
23
★★★★☆
65.6
 Top Pick
12 Road Trippin P Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
W B Calhoun
 6/1
16
★★★★☆
62.5
 Value Play
6 Straitshootinlarry E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
W A Ward
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
61.0
  
14 Wicked Gun E Misfit
F Prat
S M Asmussen
 9/2
9
★★★☆☆
58.1
  
2 Mr. All In P Fits
J A Torres
W B Calhoun
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
54.5
  
11 Hyperlink EP Neutral
Y Hazlewood
C Williams
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
54.2
 Longshot
13 Working for Glory S Fits
E Morales
K LaRose
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
54.2
  
8 Flume's Vino P Fits
A Beschizza
J Ennis
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
51.7
  
1 Soho Jimmy P Fits
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
50.2
  
4 Jem's Hershey Kiss P Fits
D Sheehy
G D Foley
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
50.1
  
3 Unionista S Fits
R Bejarano
E G Harty
 12/1
3
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
7 Bourbonkoma —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 12/1
2
★★★☆☆
46.7
  
9 Torched —
L Saez
J Sharp
 10/1
2
★★★☆☆
46.3
  
5 Page Two EP Neutral
M Gutierrez
V H Oliver
 10/1
1
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Diamond Eyed Jack
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse Value Play
12
Road Trippin
P Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
W B Calhoun
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.5
Post · Horse
6
Straitshootinlarry
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
W A Ward
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.0
Post · Horse
14
Wicked Gun
E Misfit
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse
2
Mr. All In
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W B Calhoun
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Hyperlink
EP Neutral
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
C Williams
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse
13
Working for Glory
S Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
K LaRose
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.2
Post · Horse
8
Flume's Vino
P Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J Ennis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
Post · Horse
1
Soho Jimmy
P Fits
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.2
Post · Horse
4
Jem's Hershey Kiss
P Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
G D Foley
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.1
Post · Horse
3
Unionista
S Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
E G Harty
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
7
Bourbonkoma
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.7
Post · Horse
9
Torched
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.3
Post · Horse
5
Page Two
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
V H Oliver
1
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge. No true front-runner here; the lone presser is likely to inherit the lead.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$57,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The third race sets up as an inside-out tactical battle where #2 Hidden Recipe brings two runner-up finishes with speed figures of 85 and 88 against New York shipper #6 Sassy Princess. The central question is whether #6 Sassy Princess can press the pace and outkick the favorite or if #8 Cora's Legacy can close into the frame at a price.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
0
EP
1
P
4
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Ibuki should break on top. 34765821
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Ibuki sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 34675821
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Ibuki is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 34675821

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 28.4%
Price horse: Sassy Princess (7/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Hidden Recipe S Neutral
Y Hazlewood
D W Danner
 9/2
28
★★★★☆
73.5
 Top Pick
6 Sassy Princess —
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 7/5
20
★★★★☆
70.5
 Value Play
5 Wits and Wagers P Neutral
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 7/2
12
★★★★☆
66.3
  
8 Cora's Legacy P Neutral
V R Carrasco
L Moreno-Barban
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
64.5
 Longshot
4 Nilo's Rose P Neutral
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
63.7
  
3 Ibuki EP Fits
C A Torres
R Brisset
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
62.8
  
7 Fugitive Star P Neutral
L Saez
D Jacobson
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
61.3
  
1 Little Dixie —
G Corrales
T Moreno
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Hidden Recipe
S Neutral
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
D W Danner
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.5
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Sassy Princess
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.5
Post · Horse
5
Wits and Wagers
P Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Cora's Legacy
P Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
L Moreno-Barban
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
4
Nilo's Rose
P Neutral
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.7
Post · Horse
3
Ibuki
EP Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.8
Post · Horse
7
Fugitive Star
P Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
D Jacobson
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse
1
Little Dixie
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
T Moreno
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #2 Oraia, #5 Lunar Buzz.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $40,000
Purse$58,000
Claiming$40,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
This $40,000 claiming route is tightly grouped on numbers, with #6 Bamtwentyklater and #7 Tesouro de Pirata separated by less than a single rating point. The outcome hinges on whether #2 Oraia can rebound to her summer form of 85 and 82 speed figures or if #6 Bamtwentyklater's steady form carries the day.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Oraia and #5 Lunar Buzz go for the lead together. 25768314
  2. Middle around the turn #2 Oraia and #5 Lunar Buzz keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 25768134
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Quinn's Promise has taken over in front. Tiring: #2 Oraia and #5 Lunar Buzz. 17683425

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 19.4%
Price horse: Tesouro de Pirata (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Bamtwentyklater EP Neutral
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 8/1
19
★★★★☆
62.0
 Top Pick
7 Tesouro de Pirata EP Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
F Gutierrez
 7/2
18
★★★★☆
61.3
 Value Play
2 Oraia E Misfit
E Esquivel
W D Cowans
 5/2
18
★★★★☆
61.2
  
5 Lunar Buzz E Misfit
G Corrales
L Briley
 9/2
11
★★★☆☆
57.4
  
1 Quinn's Promise P Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
57.2
  
4 French Mistress —
J A Torres
J A Hiles
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.6
 Longshot
3 Love Knicks Hart —
A Beschizza
W M Catalano
 10/1
7
★★★☆☆
53.1
  
8 Easter Promise EP Neutral
L Machado
W L Mackey
 5/1
6
★★★☆☆
51.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Bamtwentyklater
EP Neutral
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Tesouro de Pirata
EP Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
F Gutierrez
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.3
Post · Horse
2
Oraia
E Misfit
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
W D Cowans
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse
5
Lunar Buzz
E Misfit
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
L Briley
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse
1
Quinn's Promise
P Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.2
Post · Horse Longshot
4
French Mistress
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
J A Hiles
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse
3
Love Knicks Hart
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
W M Catalano
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse
8
Easter Promise
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
W L Mackey
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #12 Miracle Mark, #13 Unitas, #8 City of Oscars.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Sixteen turf runners assemble where #3 Golden Channel seeks to capitalize on an inside draw after facing stiff Kentucky Downs and Saratoga company. The key question is whether #12 Miracle Mark can overcome a difficult outside post to reproduce his 98 speed figure from Kentucky Downs.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
3
S
6

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Just Buy It and #8 City of Oscars go for the lead together. #14 Tripp's Promise and #10 Winery drop to the back. 18131239416762515111014
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Just Buy It, #8 City of Oscars and #13 Unitas keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 18131239167624515111014
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Epic Horsepower has taken over in front. Moving forward: #5 Sinister Smile, #11 Free Advice and #15 Shure. Tiring: #3 Golden Channel, #1 Just Buy It and #8 City of Oscars. 25111516101476934181312

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 18.6%
Price horse: Miracle Mark (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Golden Channel EP Neutral
F Prat
G Weaver
 6/1
19
★★★★☆
72.1
 Top Pick
12 Miracle Mark E Misfit
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
67.6
 Value Play
15 Shure S Fits
D Sheehy
J Corrigan
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
64.9
  
13 Unitas E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P Eurton
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
64.9
 Longshot
8 City of Oscars E Misfit
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 5/1
8
★★★★☆
64.7
  
9 Irish Law —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 9/2
6
★★★★☆
63.0
  
11 Free Advice S Fits
V R Carrasco
T Humphries
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
62.9
  
1 Just Buy It E Misfit
L Saez
V H Oliver
 4/1
5
★★★★☆
60.5
  
2 Epic Horsepower S Fits
J R Velazquez
G Weaver
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.9
  
5 Sinister Smile S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.7
  
16 Ramblin P Fits
M Gutierrez
P H Lobo
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
4 Stackin Sats —
J Loveberry
D Beckman
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
7 Taterpie P Fits
E Morales
G D Foley
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
58.2
  
10 Winery S Fits
S Pauly
K M Kaufeld
 50/1
3
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
14 Tripp's Promise S Fits
G Corrales
D L Romans
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
56.7
  
6 Password P Fits
A Achard
J Ennis
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
54.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Golden Channel
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
G Weaver
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.1
Post · Horse Value Play
12
Miracle Mark
E Misfit
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse
15
Shure
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Corrigan
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.9
Post · Horse Longshot
13
Unitas
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P Eurton
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.9
Post · Horse
8
City of Oscars
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse
9
Irish Law
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
11
Free Advice
S Fits
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
T Humphries
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse
1
Just Buy It
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
V H Oliver
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
2
Epic Horsepower
S Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
G Weaver
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.9
Post · Horse
5
Sinister Smile
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.7
Post · Horse
16
Ramblin
P Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P H Lobo
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
4
Stackin Sats
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
D Beckman
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
7
Taterpie
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G D Foley
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
10
Winery
S Fits
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
K M Kaufeld
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
14
Tripp's Promise
S Fits
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.7
Post · Horse
6
Password
P Fits
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
J Ennis
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Juvenile maidens clash at six and one-half furlongs where #9 Steve Wood attempts to rebound from a troubled debut on the strength of rapid morning works. He squares off against well-bred Brad Cox first-time starter #11 Invasion and Ron Moquett debutant #3 Acuff.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 21.8%
Price horse: Invasion (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Steve Wood —
M Fernandez
D K Von Hemel
 20/1
22
★★★☆☆
55.6
 Top Pick
11 Invasion —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
13
★★★☆☆
51.1
 Value Play
1 Kashville —
J A Torres
W B Calhoun
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
48.1
  
3 Acuff —
Y Hazlewood
R Moquett
 20/1
9
★★★☆☆
48.0
 Longshot
4 Supreme Commander —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 5/2
8
★★★☆☆
47.3
  
8 Intermediation EP —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
10 Hillbilly Kobe —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
47.1
  
2 Fleetfoot Mac —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 9/2
6
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
5 Champagne Coast —
A Concepcion
R Mott
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
6 Bob —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
7 The Last Campaign —
L Machado
A Navarrete
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
43.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Steve Wood
—
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.6
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Invasion
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.1
Post · Horse
1
Kashville
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W B Calhoun
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.1
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Acuff
—
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
R Moquett
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.0
Post · Horse
4
Supreme Commander
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.3
Post · Horse
8
Intermediation
EP —
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
10
Hillbilly Kobe
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.1
Post · Horse
2
Fleetfoot Mac
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
5
Champagne Coast
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
R Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
6
Bob
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
7
The Last Campaign
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
A Navarrete
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$130,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Three Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The specialist distance of seven furlongs brings together #5 Inefficiency from the Chad Brown barn and Lone Star shipper #3 Modo. The strategic question is whether #3 Modo's sharp early speed will compromise #2 Landed on the lead, setting up a winning closing trip for #5 Inefficiency.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
3
P
2
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Her Town should break on top. #9 Tapit Quick and #4 Dancing Magic drop to the back. 623517849
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 623157849
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Her Town is still in front. Moving forward: #7 Taliesin, #8 Moon Mystique and #4 Dancing Magic. 612357849

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.9%
Price horse: Modo (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Inefficiency EP Fits
F Prat
C C Brown
 9/2
19
★★★★☆
72.2
 Top Pick
3 Modo EP Fits
L Saez
K LaRose
 5/2
17
★★★★☆
71.1
 Value Play
2 Landed EP Fits
J R Velazquez
W A Ward
 7/2
14
★★★★☆
69.9
  
6 Her Town E Neutral
T Gaffalione
S A Joseph, Jr.
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
69.2
  
1 Overcome Adversity —
L Machado
M A Shirer
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
67.5
  
7 Taliesin P Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
67.3
 Longshot
9 Tapit Quick S Neutral
M Gutierrez
D Stewart
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
64.6
  
4 Dancing Magic S Neutral
J Alvarado
M B Campbell
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
8 Moon Mystique P Neutral
D Sheehy
A McKeever
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
57.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Inefficiency
EP Fits
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
C C Brown
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.2
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Modo
EP Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
K LaRose
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.1
Post · Horse
2
Landed
EP Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W A Ward
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.9
Post · Horse
6
Her Town
E Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse
1
Overcome Adversity
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
M A Shirer
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Taliesin
P Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse
9
Tapit Quick
S Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Stewart
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.6
Post · Horse
4
Dancing Magic
S Neutral
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
M B Campbell
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
Post · Horse
8
Moon Mystique
P Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
A McKeever
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #8 Movin' On Up, #6 Kehoe Beach, #2 Itzel.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $400,000
Purse$400,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size8
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The $400,000 feature features blistering turf sprinters where Wesley Ward trainee #5 Shoot It True takes on Bob Baffert shipper #1 Usha. The race comes down to who controls the rail and front end through lightning fractions, with #3 Time to Dazzle waiting to pounce if the top two duel each other into submission.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
1
P
1
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Kehoe Beach, #2 Itzel and #8 Movin' On Up all go for the lead. #5 Shoot It True and #1 Usha drop to the back. 62834715
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Kehoe Beach, #2 Itzel and #8 Movin' On Up keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 62837145
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #7 Ag Bullet has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Usha and #5 Shoot It True. Tiring: #6 Kehoe Beach, #2 Itzel and #8 Movin' On Up. 71534628

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 23.9%
Price horse: Usha (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Shoot It True S Fits
Y Hazlewood
W A Ward
 9/2
24
★★★★☆
79.8
 Top Pick
1 Usha S Fits
F Prat
B Baffert
 4/1
17
★★★★☆
77.0
 Value Play
3 Time to Dazzle EP Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
M E Casse
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
75.8
 Longshot
8 Movin' On Up E Misfit
T Gaffalione
S A Joseph, Jr.
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
75.3
  
7 Ag Bullet P Fits
J R Velazquez
R Baltas
 2/1
11
★★★★☆
73.5
  
6 Kehoe Beach E Misfit
J L Ortiz
W A Ward
 7/2
8
★★★★☆
71.0
  
2 Itzel E Misfit
E Morales
J Ennis
 20/1
5
★★★★☆
66.9
  
4 Pondering —
L Saez
B P Walsh
 20/1
4
★★★★☆
65.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Shoot It True
S Fits
Jockey
Y Hazlewood
Trainer
W A Ward
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.8
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Usha
S Fits
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B Baffert
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.0
Post · Horse Longshot
3
Time to Dazzle
EP Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
M E Casse
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.8
Post · Horse
8
Movin' On Up
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.3
Post · Horse
7
Ag Bullet
P Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
R Baltas
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.5
Post · Horse
6
Kehoe Beach
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
W A Ward
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.0
Post · Horse
2
Itzel
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Ennis
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.9
Post · Horse
4
Pondering
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B P Walsh
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:16 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The finale matches California shipper #10 Newton against local maidens #7 Tilt a Twirl and #1 Eleos. The key question is whether #10 Newton's explosive five-furlong morning drill of 58.80 transfers into a winning sprint performance or if the seasoned #7 Tilt a Twirl can wear him down late.
PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 37.0%
Price horse: Tilt a Twirl (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Newton —
F Prat
B Baffert
 3/1
37
★★★★☆
70.5
 Top Pick
7 Tilt a Twirl —
V R Carrasco
G R Arnold II
 6/1
18
★★★★☆
64.2
 Value Play
1 Eleos E —
J A Torres
C Munoz
 15/1
15
★★★★☆
62.6
 Longshot
8 Justice —
L Machado
W L Mackey
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
54.5
  
6 Emilio —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 5/1
4
★★★☆☆
52.6
  
3 Colossus —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
51.3
  
2 Merry An —
O Bocachica
W N Howard
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
51.2
  
12 Good Company —
J R Velazquez
B A Lynch
 9/2
3
★★★☆☆
48.8
  
5 Turnback EP —
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
48.5
  
11 We Be Mischief —
A Concepcion
S M Asmussen
 10/1
3
★★★☆☆
48.1
  
4 Jozempic —
L Saez
E Kenneally
 8/1
2
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
9 Leading Off —
F Arrieta
D Miller
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
45.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Newton
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B Baffert
37
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.5
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Tilt a Twirl
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
G R Arnold II
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Eleos
E —
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Munoz
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
8
Justice
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
W L Mackey
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
6
Emilio
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.6
Post · Horse
3
Colossus
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.3
Post · Horse
2
Merry An
—
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
W N Howard
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.2
Post · Horse
12
Good Company
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
B A Lynch
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.8
Post · Horse
5
Turnback
EP —
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.5
Post · Horse
11
We Be Mischief
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
S M Asmussen
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.1
Post · Horse
4
Jozempic
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
E Kenneally
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
9
Leading Off
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D Miller
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
  Go Pro