Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 4.

2026-10-14 Race 4 Morning Card
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Card signals
Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R1
West Coast Dream #2
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Speed Skater #4
10/1 ML
Deepest field
R8
12 runners
12
Pace shape
R1
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland presents an eight-race Wednesday program highlighted by competitive two-turn turf allowances and quality claiming events. Form holds strong in the early dirt sequences, where West Coast Dream in Race 1 and Pinch of Bourbon in Race 2 lay down reliable form lines against manageable groups. Mid-card turf routes present deeper, split-opinion fields where price players can lean on proven grass route figures and tactical stalking trips. Value seekers should key on live middle-tier prices such as West Coast Bull in Race 3 and Oscar Season in Race 6.
Races 8 Status Completed View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #5 Cara Felce, #4 Speed Skater.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $30,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won Three Races
Purse$55,000
Claiming$30,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size6
Eligibility & Weights
Eligibilitywhich have never won three races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For horses three years old and upward which have never won three races. Claiming price $30,000 or less
Storyline
A compact field of six opens the card where #2 West Coast Dream brings proven track-and-trip credentials, but must fend off the surging #5 Cara Felce who enters off a career-best victory at Churchill Downs.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
0
P
1
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Speed Skater and #5 Cara Felce go for the lead together. #3 Hold My Halo and #2 West Coast Dream drop to the back. 456123
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Speed Skater and #5 Cara Felce keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 456123
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Heartbeat has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Freak City, #2 West Coast Dream and #3 Hold My Halo. Tiring: #4 Speed Skater and #5 Cara Felce. 612345

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Exacta KeyTrifecta Play
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 32.5%
Price horse: Cara Felce (9/5 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 West Coast Dream S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
M W McCarthy
 6/5
32
★★★★☆
70.4
 Top Pick
5 Cara Felce E Misfit
R Bejarano
P J McGee
 9/5
18
★★★★☆
65.3
 Value Play
3 Hold My Halo S Fits
A Beschizza
D Miller
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
64.9
  
6 Heartbeat P Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
63.0
  
4 Speed Skater E Misfit
F Arrieta
C W Axmaker
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
60.3
 Longshot
1 Freak City S Fits
J N Hernandez
M Jacobs
 30/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
West Coast Dream
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
M W McCarthy
32
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Cara Felce
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
P J McGee
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse
3
Hold My Halo
S Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
D Miller
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.9
Post · Horse
6
Heartbeat
P Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Speed Skater
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
C W Axmaker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
1
Freak City
S Fits
Jockey
J N Hernandez
Trainer
M Jacobs
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 6-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$55,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For
Storyline
Dropping out of an uncharacteristic turf route at Kentucky Downs, #6 Pinch of Bourbon returns to her preferred six-furlong sprint distance where she must verify her New York dirt form against the seasoned maiden #2 Shot At Perfection.
PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 29.9%
Price horse: Shot At Perfection (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Pinch of Bourbon —
I Ortiz, Jr.
S A Joseph, Jr.
 5/2
30
★★★★☆
63.4
 Top Pick
2 Shot At Perfection P —
J Rosario
R Moquett
 6/1
15
★★★☆☆
57.3
 Value Play
8 Rhapsody in Blue P —
C Orantes
E K Roggenkamp III
 8/1
13
★★★☆☆
56.6
 Longshot
5 Christy
F Prat
B P Walsh
 3/1
13
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
9 Sister Wife E —
F Arrieta
T L Van Berg
 9/2
12
★★★☆☆
55.5
  
4 Irish Pub —
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.7
  
3 Serafina Vietti —
A Concepcion
S D Dunn
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
7 For My Sake —
A Espinoza
R E Gonzalez
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.5
  
1 Cocoa Bean —
O Bocachica
A Decker
 10/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.3
  
10 Demure
G Corrales
C Torres
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Pinch of Bourbon
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
30
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.4
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Shot At Perfection
P —
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
R Moquett
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Rhapsody in Blue
P —
Jockey
C Orantes
Trainer
E K Roggenkamp III
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse
5
Christy
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B P Walsh
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
9
Sister Wife
E —
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
T L Van Berg
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse
4
Irish Pub
—
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse
3
Serafina Vietti
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
S D Dunn
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
7
For My Sake
—
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
R E Gonzalez
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.5
Post · Horse
1
Cocoa Bean
—
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
A Decker
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.3
Post · Horse
10
Demure
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
C Torres
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #6 West Coast Bull, #9 Lucky Shot, #4 Decatur Street.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$51,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
New York invader #8 Show Time holds the tactical edge on pure figures, but faces a stern challenge from Pacific Northwest shipper #6 West Coast Bull, who enters off a powerhouse 96 speed figure sprint victory.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
3
P
1
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Decatur Street, #7 Eli's Promise and #6 West Coast Bull all go for the lead. #2 Pinfire drops to the back. 476953812
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Decatur Street, #7 Eli's Promise and #6 West Coast Bull keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 476951382
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Coming in Hot has taken over in front. Moving forward: #2 Pinfire, #5 Machine Gun Man and #3 Heavenlyconveyance. Tiring: #4 Decatur Street, #7 Eli's Promise and #6 West Coast Bull. 125384769

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 27.5%
Price horse: West Coast Bull (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Show Time EP Neutral
J Rosario
D Jacobson
 3/2
28
★★★★☆
74.5
 Top Pick
6 West Coast Bull E Misfit
G Rodriguez
F Lucarelli
 10/1
16
★★★★☆
70.0
 Value Play
9 Lucky Shot E Misfit
A Beschizza
C Milligan
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
67.5
  
3 Heavenlyconveyance EP Neutral
J L Ortiz
M Robertson
 9/2
11
★★★★☆
67.0
  
2 Pinfire S Fits
A Concepcion
M A Tomlinson
 5/1
9
★★★★☆
65.0
  
4 Decatur Street E Misfit
L Fuenmayor
C Galindo-Torres
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
63.8
  
5 Machine Gun Man EP Neutral
J Loveberry
A G Cohn
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
62.1
  
7 Eli's Promise E Misfit
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 6/1
6
★★★★☆
61.4
  
1 Coming in Hot P Fits
M Gutierrez
I Bahena
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
57.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Show Time
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
D Jacobson
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.5
Post · Horse Value Play
6
West Coast Bull
E Misfit
Jockey
G Rodriguez
Trainer
F Lucarelli
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse
9
Lucky Shot
E Misfit
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
C Milligan
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
3
Heavenlyconveyance
EP Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M Robertson
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse
2
Pinfire
S Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M A Tomlinson
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
4
Decatur Street
E Misfit
Jockey
L Fuenmayor
Trainer
C Galindo-Torres
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
5
Machine Gun Man
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
A G Cohn
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
7
Eli's Promise
E Misfit
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
1
Coming in Hot
P Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
I Bahena
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Smell the Lilies, #11 Frosty Mojito.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A wide-open field of eleven turf route fillies centers on whether #3 Moonlight Dash can convert back-to-back 90-plus speed figures into a trip to the winner's circle against #4 Smell the Lilies, who exits a runner-up effort at Kentucky Downs.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
3
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Smell the Lilies and #11 Frosty Mojito go for the lead together. #8 Cotillard and #1 Risen Power drop to the back. 4119672531018
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Smell the Lilies and #11 Frosty Mojito keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 4116972310518
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Princess Em Too is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #2 Miss Moxee, #3 Moonlight Dash and #1 Risen Power. Tiring: #7 Coco G, #4 Smell the Lilies and #11 Frosty Mojito. 6239110785411

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 21.0%
Price horse: Smell the Lilies (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Moonlight Dash P Fits
J Alvarado
P A Bauer
 7/2
21
★★★★☆
66.8
 Top Pick
4 Smell the Lilies E Misfit
F Prat
S M Asmussen
 5/2
17
★★★★☆
65.0
 Value Play
9 Galatina EP Neutral
J Graham
J E Baker
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
61.7
  
6 Princess Em Too —
A Concepcion
P D'Amato
 10/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
8 Cotillard S Fits
M Gutierrez
P Matejka
 4/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
2 Miss Moxee P Fits
O Bocachica
K L McGuire
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.6
  
7 Coco G EP Neutral
L Saez
B P Walsh
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.2
 Longshot
10 Tidal Tactics P Fits
C Jimenez
J Mitchell
 50/1
5
★★★☆☆
54.3
  
1 Risen Power S Fits
J Loveberry
G T Forster
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
11 Frosty Mojito E Misfit
O Mojica, Jr.
P McEntee
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
5 Havana Rum —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Moonlight Dash
P Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
P A Bauer
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Smell the Lilies
E Misfit
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
S M Asmussen
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
9
Galatina
EP Neutral
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J E Baker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse
6
Princess Em Too
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
P D'Amato
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
8
Cotillard
S Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P Matejka
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse
2
Miss Moxee
P Fits
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
K L McGuire
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.6
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Coco G
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
10
Tidal Tactics
P Fits
Jockey
C Jimenez
Trainer
J Mitchell
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
1
Risen Power
S Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
G T Forster
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
Post · Horse
11
Frosty Mojito
E Misfit
Jockey
O Mojica, Jr.
Trainer
P McEntee
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
Post · Horse
5
Havana Rum
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old Fillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Experience clashes with high-profile pedigree in this juvenile filly sprint, where Saratoga runner-up #8 Psalm Beauty seeks her diploma while first-time starters from the Chad Brown and Brad Cox barns loom large.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 19.0%
Price horse: Ice Empress (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Psalm Beauty —
F Prat
S M Asmussen
 7/2
19
★★★☆☆
56.1
 Top Pick
4 Ice Empress —
M Gutierrez
D Fawkes
 9/2
16
★★★☆☆
54.7
 Value Play
9 Fortune Cookie —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 6/1
13
★★★☆☆
53.0
  
10 Never Two —
J L Ortiz
C C Brown
 8/1
10
★★★☆☆
50.6
 Longshot
3 Run Kiki Run —
L Saez
B H Cox
 6/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.3
  
11 Maranello —
J R Velazquez
B P Walsh
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.1
  
6 Violent Gal —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.0
  
7 Brillianteering —
A Concepcion
M E Casse
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.0
  
1 Shepherd's Grace E —
J Alvarado
V H Oliver
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.4
  
5 Clear Thinking —
B Curtis
R Moquett
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
2 Lakeside Rye —
L Machado
B Colebrook
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Psalm Beauty
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
S M Asmussen
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.1
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Ice Empress
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
D Fawkes
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.7
Post · Horse
9
Fortune Cookie
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.0
Post · Horse Longshot
10
Never Two
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C C Brown
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.6
Post · Horse
3
Run Kiki Run
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B H Cox
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.3
Post · Horse
11
Maranello
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
B P Walsh
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.1
Post · Horse
6
Violent Gal
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.0
Post · Horse
7
Brillianteering
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M E Casse
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
1
Shepherd's Grace
E —
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
V H Oliver
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.4
Post · Horse
5
Clear Thinking
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
R Moquett
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
2
Lakeside Rye
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #9 Ironsides, #6 Sushi Man.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races
Purse$130,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won three races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Making his return to Keeneland where he was narrowly beaten with a 99 speed figure in April, #5 Talbingo brings superior turf figures to bear against the streaking invader #9 Ironsides.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
1
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #6 Sushi Man and #9 Ironsides go for the lead together. #7 Tough Little Nut and #5 Talbingo drop to the back. 6911281041357
  2. Middle around the turn #6 Sushi Man and #9 Ironsides keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 6911281041357
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #11 Joejoe Go is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #4 Sendero, #3 Canyon Streak and #1 Oscar Season. Tiring: #8 Maui Strong, #10 Baltimore Heart and #6 Sushi Man. 1124315781069

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 21.4%
Price horse: Oscar Season (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Talbingo S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
B A Lynch
 7/2
21
★★★★☆
71.4
 Top Pick
1 Oscar Season S Fits
J R Velazquez
B P Walsh
 10/1
12
★★★★☆
66.8
 Value Play
9 Ironsides E Misfit
J L Ortiz
F Gutierrez
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
66.1
 Longshot
2 Blast Furnace —
F Prat
M J Maker
 3/1
10
★★★★☆
65.0
  
3 Canyon Streak S Fits
J Alvarado
H Rodriguez
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
63.6
  
6 Sushi Man E Misfit
F Arrieta
C W Rosin
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
63.6
  
7 Tough Little Nut S Fits
D Sheehy
C M Block
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
62.5
  
10 Baltimore Heart EP Neutral
E Esquivel
B Williamson
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
60.5
  
8 Maui Strong EP Neutral
G Corrales
D L Romans
 9/2
6
★★★★☆
60.2
  
11 Joejoe Go —
L Saez
C Davis
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
59.3
  
4 Sendero P Fits
J Loveberry
A G Cohn
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
55.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Talbingo
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B A Lynch
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.4
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Oscar Season
S Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
B P Walsh
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.8
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Ironsides
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
F Gutierrez
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.1
Post · Horse
2
Blast Furnace
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
M J Maker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
3
Canyon Streak
S Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
H Rodriguez
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
6
Sushi Man
E Misfit
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
C W Rosin
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
7
Tough Little Nut
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
C M Block
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.5
Post · Horse
10
Baltimore Heart
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
B Williamson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
8
Maui Strong
EP Neutral
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
Post · Horse
11
Joejoe Go
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.3
Post · Horse
4
Sendero
P Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
A G Cohn
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #8 Hop Sing, #7 Culprit, #3 Reb.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $62,500
Purse$64,000
Claiming$62,500
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming price $62
Storyline
A competitive $62,500 claimer pits Saratoga dropper #8 Hop Sing against the hard-trying #5 Sav'n Money, testing who handles the step up in company around two turns.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
3
P
3
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #7 Culprit, #8 Hop Sing and #3 Reb all go for the lead. #9 Admiral Hall and #5 Sav'n Money drop to the back. 78361104259
  2. Middle around the turn #7 Culprit, #8 Hop Sing and #3 Reb keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 78361104259
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #9 Admiral Hall has taken over in front. Moving forward: #4 Chillax, #2 Susan's Boy and #5 Sav'n Money. Tiring: #7 Culprit, #8 Hop Sing and #3 Reb. 94256110783

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.8%
Price horse: Sav'n Money (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Hop Sing E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
C Summers
 7/2
19
★★★★☆
70.1
 Top Pick
5 Sav'n Money P Fits
J L Ortiz
W M Catalano
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
69.2
 Value Play
4 Chillax P Fits
J Rosario
D Jacobson
 5/2
13
★★★★☆
67.1
  
7 Culprit E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
D Jacobson
 6/1
11
★★★★☆
65.2
  
2 Susan's Boy P Fits
L Saez
B Colebrook
 20/1
10
★★★★☆
65.0
  
6 Legitimate EP Neutral
R Bejarano
P J McGee
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
62.4
  
1 King of Ashes EP Neutral
F Prat
B P Walsh
 6/1
7
★★★★☆
61.4
  
9 Admiral Hall S Fits
L Machado
M P Sims
 8/1
6
★★★★☆
60.2
 Longshot
10 Magicstrikesagain EP Neutral
J A Torres
M Williams
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
59.5
  
3 Reb E Misfit
G Rodriguez
K Fletcher
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
58.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Hop Sing
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
C Summers
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Sav'n Money
P Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
W M Catalano
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse
4
Chillax
P Fits
Jockey
J Rosario
Trainer
D Jacobson
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.1
Post · Horse
7
Culprit
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
D Jacobson
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse
2
Susan's Boy
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
B Colebrook
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse
6
Legitimate
EP Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
P J McGee
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.4
Post · Horse
1
King of Ashes
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B P Walsh
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Admiral Hall
S Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
M P Sims
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
Post · Horse
10
Magicstrikesagain
EP Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
M Williams
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.5
Post · Horse
3
Reb
E Misfit
Jockey
G Rodriguez
Trainer
K Fletcher
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #9 Lit Ship, #11 Tramuntana, #2 Rain Gold.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size12
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexfillies and mares
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The finale is a 12-horse turf route puzzle where #9 Lit Ship looks to parlay back-to-back 90-plus Kentucky Downs efforts into a breakthrough win against the European-bred #1 Fiery Lucy.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
3
S
5

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Rain Gold, #9 Lit Ship and #11 Tramuntana all go for the lead. #10 My Stubborn Lassie and #5 Temple Goddess drop to the back. 291117346812510
  2. Middle around the turn #2 Rain Gold, #9 Lit Ship and #11 Tramuntana keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 291117346812510
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Fiery Lucy is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #6 Honor Azteca, #8 No Other Like You and #12 Stunning Sapphire. Tiring: #3 Neenah, #4 Maverick Queen and #2 Rain Gold. 168125710342911

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 14.9%
Price horse: Fiery Lucy (5/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Lit Ship E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
68.4
 Top Pick
1 Fiery Lucy —
F Prat
B P Walsh
 5/2
15
★★★★☆
68.3
 Value Play
8 No Other Like You S Fits
J R Velazquez
D Fawkes
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
67.3
  
10 My Stubborn Lassie S Fits
B Curtis
P Eurton
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
65.8
 Longshot
7 Raconteuse P Fits
F Arrieta
I R Wilkes
 12/1
11
★★★★☆
65.5
  
11 Tramuntana E Misfit
L Saez
E Kenneally
 9/2
8
★★★★☆
62.9
  
3 Neenah P Fits
A Cedillo
D K Von Hemel
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
61.4
  
12 Stunning Sapphire S Fits
J Loveberry
N G Goodwin
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
60.6
  
2 Rain Gold E Misfit
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
58.7
  
4 Maverick Queen P Fits
J A Torres
E G Harty
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
5 Temple Goddess S Fits
D Sheehy
J Corrigan
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
6 Honor Azteca S Fits
A Beschizza
C Davis
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
52.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Lit Ship
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Fiery Lucy
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B P Walsh
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse
8
No Other Like You
S Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
D Fawkes
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.3
Post · Horse Longshot
10
My Stubborn Lassie
S Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
P Eurton
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.8
Post · Horse
7
Raconteuse
P Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
I R Wilkes
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.5
Post · Horse
11
Tramuntana
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
E Kenneally
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.9
Post · Horse
3
Neenah
P Fits
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
12
Stunning Sapphire
S Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
N G Goodwin
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.6
Post · Horse
2
Rain Gold
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
Post · Horse
4
Maverick Queen
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
E G Harty
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse
5
Temple Goddess
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Corrigan
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
6
Honor Azteca
S Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
C Davis
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
  Go Pro