Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 10.

2026-10-17 Race 10 Morning Card
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Card signals
Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R8
Hear the Queen #3
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Out Flat #2
30/1 ML
Deepest field
R2
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R8
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland presents a competitive 10-race Saturday program highlighted by twin seven-furlong sprint stakes in Races 7 and 9. Turf routes in Races 4 and 8 place a premium on tactical positioning and ground-saving journeys over the firm Keeneland lawn. Main-track sprints feature heavy competition on the front end, making stalking mid-pack runners like Classic Time in Race 5 and Deep Flame in Race 7 prime tactical focal points.
Races 10 Status Completed View Morning
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Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #8 Trouble Time, #7 L Rankin, #3 Essential Wild Cat.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$49,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size11
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Speed duelers drawn toward the inside will test #8 Trouble Time, who drops into a manageable spot after consecutive competitive efforts at Churchill Downs and Ellis Park. The primary tactical question is whether #11 Keepinitreal can use his stalking gear from an outside draw to sweep past fading leaders if the pace collapses.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Essential Wild Cat, #5 Hodl Hard and #7 L Rankin all go for the lead. #1 Dispersion and #11 Keepinitreal drop to the back. 3578692410111
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Essential Wild Cat, #5 Hodl Hard and #7 L Rankin keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 3578692111410
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Out Flat has taken over in front. Moving forward: #1 Dispersion and #11 Keepinitreal. Tiring: #3 Essential Wild Cat, #5 Hodl Hard and #7 L Rankin. 2611194103578

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 21.1%
Price horse: Keepinitreal (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Trouble Time E Misfit
T Gaffalione
N Vaccarezza
 5/2
21
★★★★☆
67.0
 Top Pick
11 Keepinitreal P Fits
O Mojica
K Martinez
 10/1
19
★★★★☆
66.0
 Value Play
7 L Rankin E Misfit
A Espinoza
R C Bryner
 6/1
15
★★★★☆
64.0
  
2 Out Flat P Fits
C A Torres
K Martinez
 30/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.9
 Longshot
6 Strummin —
J L Ortiz
E Kenneally
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
58.2
  
9 Heartily EP Neutral
W A Rodriguez
W A Ward
 9/2
7
★★★☆☆
58.0
  
1 Dispersion S Fits
D Sheehy
M L Rouck
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
3 Essential Wild Cat E Misfit
O Bocachica
A Stephen
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.2
  
4 Our Standard —
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
55.2
  
5 Hodl Hard E Misfit
L Saez
J Sharp
 5/1
3
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
10 Knick the Quick —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
45.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Trouble Time
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Keepinitreal
P Fits
Jockey
O Mojica
Trainer
K Martinez
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.0
Post · Horse
7
L Rankin
E Misfit
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
R C Bryner
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.0
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Out Flat
P Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
K Martinez
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
Post · Horse
6
Strummin
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
E Kenneally
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
9
Heartily
EP Neutral
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
W A Ward
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.0
Post · Horse
1
Dispersion
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
M L Rouck
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse
3
Essential Wild Cat
E Misfit
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
A Stephen
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.2
Post · Horse
4
Our Standard
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.2
Post · Horse
5
Hodl Hard
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse
10
Knick the Quick
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge. No true front-runner here; the lone presser is likely to inherit the lead.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityTwo-year-old fillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A sprawling field of 16 juvenile fillies creates genuine uncertainty, where #10 Valentine Eve looks to translate four previous starts into an edge over several high-profile first-time starters. The race pivots on whether Wesley Ward trainee #12 Sailor's Dream can step forward significantly switching from turf to dirt.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
0
EP
1
P
4
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #14 J Z's Not Again should break on top. 14105637111122413158916
  2. Middle around the turn #14 J Z's Not Again sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 14610711531122413158916
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #14 J Z's Not Again is still in front. Moving forward: #9 Avos Rose. Tiring: #5 Puzzled and #3 Absolute Lea W. 14610711531122413915816

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 9.8%
Price horse: Sailor's Dream (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Valentine Eve P Neutral
M Gutierrez
M P Sims
 12/1
10
★★★☆☆
48.7
 Top Pick
12 Sailor's Dream —
J R Velazquez
W A Ward
 7/2
9
★★★☆☆
47.6
 Value Play
2 Southern Way —
T Gaffalione
G T Forster
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
47.3
  
5 Puzzled P Neutral
A Beschizza
W B Calhoun
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
46.4
 Longshot
6 Bellacielo —
F Arrieta
L Robson
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
45.8
  
1 Ginger Money —
J Loveberry
G T Forster
 12/1
7
★★★☆☆
45.7
  
16 Capability S Misfit
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
9 Avos Rose S Misfit
A Castillo
N G Goodwin
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
4 Ardennes —
A Jimenez
M Kordenbrock
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.6
  
7 Queens Ambition —
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.2
  
14 J Z's Not Again EP Fits
D Grisales Rave
G Esquivel
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
3 Absolute Lea W P Neutral
A Espinoza
D K Von Hemel
 5/1
6
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
13 Mussume —
A Concepcion
E Lopez
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
11 Epiphany —
R Bejarano
A B Taylor
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
42.9
  
15 Saffron Rouge P Neutral
O Bocachica
A Decker
 30/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.4
  
8 Dream Wave —
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 12/1
3
★★☆☆☆
39.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Valentine Eve
P Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
M P Sims
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.7
Post · Horse Value Play
12
Sailor's Dream
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W A Ward
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
2
Southern Way
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
G T Forster
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.3
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Puzzled
P Neutral
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
W B Calhoun
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.4
Post · Horse
6
Bellacielo
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
L Robson
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse
1
Ginger Money
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
G T Forster
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.7
Post · Horse
16
Capability
S Misfit
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
9
Avos Rose
S Misfit
Jockey
A Castillo
Trainer
N G Goodwin
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
4
Ardennes
—
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
M Kordenbrock
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.6
Post · Horse
7
Queens Ambition
—
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.2
Post · Horse
14
J Z's Not Again
EP Fits
Jockey
D Grisales Rave
Trainer
G Esquivel
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
3
Absolute Lea W
P Neutral
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
13
Mussume
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
E Lopez
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
11
Epiphany
—
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
A B Taylor
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.9
Post · Horse
15
Saffron Rouge
P Neutral
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
A Decker
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.4
Post · Horse
8
Dream Wave
—
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #8 Swirvin, #7 Dancin for Gold, #2 Dr. Storm.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $12,500 Or Less In 2025 - 2026
Purse$50,000
Claiming$12,500
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
In-form turf sprinter #6 Lord Majesty arrives riding a three-race win streak, but must contend with Gulfstream shipper #8 Swirvin who sports comparable class figures. The central clash is whether #6 Lord Majesty can clear or stalk effectively around one turn without getting pinned wide by speed horses inside.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
1
P
0
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 El Dandi, #8 Swirvin and #2 Dr. Storm all go for the lead. #4 Doctor Jeff drops to the back. 182735694
  2. Middle around the turn #1 El Dandi, #8 Swirvin and #2 Dr. Storm keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 182357694
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 King Apollo is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #4 Doctor Jeff and #6 Lord Majesty. Tiring: #1 El Dandi, #8 Swirvin and #2 Dr. Storm. 354691827

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.0%
Price horse: Swirvin (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Lord Majesty EP Neutral
F Arrieta
C Milligan
 6/1
17
★★★★☆
71.4
 Top Pick
8 Swirvin E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
S A Joseph, Jr.
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
71.1
 Value Play
7 Dancin for Gold E Misfit
C A Torres
T Eoff
 5/2
14
★★★★☆
69.7
  
2 Dr. Storm E Misfit
S Pauly
I Bahena
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
66.5
  
4 Doctor Jeff S Fits
M Gutierrez
I Bahena
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
66.3
  
5 Nation —
J A Torres
R B Hess, Jr.
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
65.6
  
9 Halfway Joking —
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 4/1
9
★★★★☆
65.6
  
1 El Dandi E Misfit
A Achard
I Acevedo
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
65.4
  
3 King Apollo —
J Graham
R B Hess, Jr.
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
65.2
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Lord Majesty
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
C Milligan
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.4
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Swirvin
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.1
Post · Horse
7
Dancin for Gold
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
T Eoff
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.7
Post · Horse
2
Dr. Storm
E Misfit
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
I Bahena
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.5
Post · Horse
4
Doctor Jeff
S Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
I Bahena
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse
5
Nation
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R B Hess, Jr.
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
9
Halfway Joking
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
1
El Dandi
E Misfit
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
I Acevedo
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse Longshot
3
King Apollo
—
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
R B Hess, Jr.
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityTwo-year-old fillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Brad Cox trainee #3 Candy Pancakes stretches out around two turns on turf after a promising debut third at Ellis Park, drawing favorably inside. The key question is whether Kentucky Downs runner-up #9 Sucker for Looks can translate her strong 78 speed figure onto the tighter turns of Keeneland.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 13.4%
Price horse: Sucker for Looks (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Candy Pancakes —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
13
★★★☆☆
59.1
 Top Pick
9 Sucker for Looks —
J R Velazquez
L Robson
 4/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.6
 Value Play
5 Delightful Diva S —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.5
  
1 Toco Dancer —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
B A Lynch
 5/1
10
★★★☆☆
56.4
  
14 Majorbrowniepoints —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 3/1
8
★★★☆☆
54.6
  
8 Nuccia —
L Saez
V H Oliver
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
54.3
 Longshot
10 Ultraviolet S —
M Gutierrez
B A Lynch
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
53.1
  
2 Speedbird —
A Concepcion
G R Arnold II
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
51.8
  
6 Gray Eminence —
F Prat
A Delacour
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
51.0
  
11 Woodmere —
A Beschizza
K Danner
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
16 Speak for Yourself —
J R Velazquez
J C Servis
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.6
  
7 Play Along —
J A Torres
W B Calhoun
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
15 Breezy —
L Machado
W Walden
 10/1
3
★★★☆☆
47.3
  
13 Emma's Justice
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
46.0
  
12 Rosabella Gold —
V R Carrasco
I R Wilkes
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.8
  
4 American Destiny —
J Alvarado
V H Oliver
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Candy Pancakes
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Sucker for Looks
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
L Robson
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse
5
Delightful Diva
S —
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.5
Post · Horse
1
Toco Dancer
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
B A Lynch
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.4
Post · Horse
14
Majorbrowniepoints
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.6
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Nuccia
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
V H Oliver
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.3
Post · Horse
10
Ultraviolet
S —
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B A Lynch
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.1
Post · Horse
2
Speedbird
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
G R Arnold II
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.8
Post · Horse
6
Gray Eminence
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
A Delacour
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.0
Post · Horse
11
Woodmere
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
K Danner
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse
16
Speak for Yourself
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
J C Servis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.6
Post · Horse
7
Play Along
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W B Calhoun
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
15
Breezy
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
W Walden
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.3
Post · Horse
13
Emma's Justice
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.0
Post · Horse
12
Rosabella Gold
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
I R Wilkes
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.8
Post · Horse
4
American Destiny
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
V H Oliver
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #10 Ship Ship Hooray, #4 Track Phantom, #3 Creole Chrome.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or
Purse$130,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityNon-winners of three races lifetime
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A contentious sprint where #5 Classic Time returns following an impressive Saratoga allowance win with a 103 speed figure, facing battle-tested Midwestern sprint form. The tactical debate centers on whether the blistering early pace forced by #4 Track Phantom and #6 Raymond leaves the door open for closers.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
5
EP
1
P
0
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Great White, #3 Creole Chrome and #4 Track Phantom all go for the lead. #6 Raymond and #7 Market Street drop to the back. 93411058276
  2. Middle around the turn #9 Great White, #3 Creole Chrome and #4 Track Phantom keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 93411058276
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Classic Time is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #2 Jefferson Street, #7 Market Street and #6 Raymond. Tiring: #9 Great White, #3 Creole Chrome and #1 Camp Hale. 52768931410

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.3%
Price horse: Raymond (12/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Classic Time —
L Saez
N W Casse
 15/1
15
★★★★☆
70.4
 Top Pick
6 Raymond S Fits
J Loveberry
T E Martin
 12/1
12
★★★★☆
68.7
 Value Play
10 Ship Ship Hooray E Misfit
V R Carrasco
S E Shaffer
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
68.5
 Longshot
2 Jefferson Street S Fits
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 9/2
11
★★★★☆
67.5
  
4 Track Phantom E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
D Jacobson
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
67.1
  
8 Rockies Balboa EP Neutral
F Prat
D L Romans
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
66.4
  
3 Creole Chrome E Misfit
T Gaffalione
J Sharp
 3/1
9
★★★★☆
65.6
  
1 Camp Hale E Misfit
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
65.5
  
7 Market Street S Fits
C A Torres
A Shorter
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
64.7
  
9 Great White E Misfit
A Achard
J Ennis
 4/1
4
★★★☆☆
60.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Classic Time
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
N W Casse
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Raymond
S Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
T E Martin
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse Longshot
10
Ship Ship Hooray
E Misfit
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
S E Shaffer
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
2
Jefferson Street
S Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
4
Track Phantom
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
D Jacobson
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.1
Post · Horse
8
Rockies Balboa
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
D L Romans
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
Post · Horse
3
Creole Chrome
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
1
Camp Hale
E Misfit
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.5
Post · Horse
7
Market Street
S Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
A Shorter
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse
9
Great White
E Misfit
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
J Ennis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityTwo-year-old colts and geldings
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Trainer Joe Sharp saddles #2 Midnight Rumble for his second career outing, looking to rebound from a troubled debut against a massive field of 16 juveniles. The critical test is whether experienced maiden #3 Decimation can leverage three solid Saratoga performances to outfinish well-bred firsters.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 21.3%
Price horse: Decimation (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Midnight Rumble —
J Alvarado
J Sharp
 15/1
21
★★★★☆
60.3
 Top Pick
3 Decimation EP —
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 4/1
13
★★★☆☆
56.0
 Value Play
5 Start the Party —
F Prat
W A Ward
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
51.9
 Longshot
11 Capitola —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
8
★★★☆☆
51.9
  
1 Brazen Caine
J L Ortiz
J C Servis
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.4
  
15 Epic Journey —
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 5/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.1
  
14 Just Plain Eugene
J L Ortiz
J A Hancock
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.6
  
7 Outlaw Joe —
C A Torres
D Stewart
 5/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.9
  
9 Prateen —
J R Velazquez
M E Casse
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.9
  
12 Fair Chase —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.7
  
4 Goshawk
A Concepcion
K Danner
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.4
  
10 Accelerator —
J A Torres
W E Morey
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.4
  
6 Dr. Bob —
M Gutierrez
B A Lynch
 8/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.2
  
16 Twillo —
B Curtis
B A Lynch
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
13 Midnight Max —
C A Torres
T S Wismer
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.9
  
8 Big City Steve —
A Espinoza
D K Von Hemel
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Midnight Rumble
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
J Sharp
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Decimation
EP —
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.0
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Start the Party
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
W A Ward
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
Post · Horse
11
Capitola
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.9
Post · Horse
1
Brazen Caine
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J C Servis
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse
15
Epic Journey
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.1
Post · Horse
14
Just Plain Eugene
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J A Hancock
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
7
Outlaw Joe
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.9
Post · Horse
9
Prateen
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M E Casse
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.9
Post · Horse
12
Fair Chase
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.7
Post · Horse
4
Goshawk
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
K Danner
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.4
Post · Horse
10
Accelerator
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W E Morey
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.4
Post · Horse
6
Dr. Bob
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B A Lynch
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
16
Twillo
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
B A Lynch
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
13
Midnight Max
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
T S Wismer
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.9
Post · Horse
8
Big City Steve
—
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #4 Roscoe's Brother, #1 Solitude Dude, #5 American Man.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $350,000
Purse$350,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The $350,000 sprint stakes brings together top caliber talent, where #12 Deep Flame seeks redemption after a stellar runner-up effort at Saratoga yielding a 111 speed figure. The race's defining friction is whether the outside post leaves him wide while #5 American Man and #11 Obliteration stalk comfortably inside him.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
5
P
0
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Roscoe's Brother and #1 Solitude Dude go for the lead together. #2 Trouble Calling and #6 Dr. Kapur drop to the back. 417593812101162
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Roscoe's Brother, #1 Solitude Dude and #7 Mo Koko keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 417539812101162
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Chief Wallabee is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #6 Dr. Kapur, #2 Trouble Calling and #8 I C Light. Tiring: #4 Roscoe's Brother, #1 Solitude Dude and #7 Mo Koko. 362981012114175

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 24.0%
Price horse: Obliteration (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
12 Deep Flame EP Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/5
24
★★★★★
82.0
 Top Pick
11 Obliteration EP Neutral
F Prat
S M Asmussen
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
77.4
 Value Play
4 Roscoe's Brother E Misfit
E Jaramillo
M Glatt
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
75.5
  
1 Solitude Dude E Misfit
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
74.6
  
5 American Man E Misfit
C A Torres
D Stewart
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
72.5
 Longshot
2 Trouble Calling S Fits
L Saez
G D Foley
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
72.4
  
10 Doublecents EP Neutral
F Arrieta
B Creighton
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
72.0
  
3 Chief Wallabee —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 8/1
6
★★★★☆
70.6
  
6 Dr. Kapur S Fits
T Gaffalione
S A Joseph, Jr.
 12/1
4
★★★★☆
67.2
  
7 Mo Koko E Misfit
J A Torres
F Rodriguez
 30/1
4
★★★★☆
66.1
  
8 I C Light EP Neutral
A Concepcion
M E Casse
 30/1
2
★★★★☆
60.3
  
9 Street Beast EP Neutral
L Machado
B Colebrook
 20/1
2
★★★★☆
60.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
12
Deep Flame
EP Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
24
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/5
Rating
★★★★★ 82.0
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Obliteration
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
S M Asmussen
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.4
Post · Horse
4
Roscoe's Brother
E Misfit
Jockey
E Jaramillo
Trainer
M Glatt
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 75.5
Post · Horse
1
Solitude Dude
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.6
Post · Horse Longshot
5
American Man
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
D Stewart
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.5
Post · Horse
2
Trouble Calling
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G D Foley
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.4
Post · Horse
10
Doublecents
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
B Creighton
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.0
Post · Horse
3
Chief Wallabee
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.6
Post · Horse
6
Dr. Kapur
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.2
Post · Horse
7
Mo Koko
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
F Rodriguez
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.1
Post · Horse
8
I C Light
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M E Casse
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
9
Street Beast
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #1 Caviar Breakfast, #9 Buttons and Lace.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Rating, Restricted, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never
Purse$140,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityRestricted allowance / starter condition
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Brad Cox pupil #3 Hear the Queen brings triple-digit back class and an encouraging return third at Kentucky Downs into this turf route. The race revolves around whether she can dispatch Del Mar shipper #10 Bojaca Blessing without being softened up by early pace rival #8 She's Lookin Lucky.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
2
P
1
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Caviar Breakfast and #9 Buttons and Lace go for the lead together. #2 Ontario and #3 Hear the Queen drop to the back. 19510867432
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Caviar Breakfast and #9 Buttons and Lace keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 19510867432
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Dare to Fly has taken over in front. Moving forward: #4 For Love and Honor, #3 Hear the Queen and #2 Ontario. Tiring: #10 Bojaca Blessing, #8 She's Lookin Lucky and #1 Caviar Breakfast. 64532108719

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 27.5%
Price horse: Bojaca Blessing (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Hear the Queen S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
28
★★★★☆
77.6
 Top Pick
10 Bojaca Blessing EP Neutral
L Saez
J F D'Angelo
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
69.6
 Value Play
8 She's Lookin Lucky EP Neutral
J R Velazquez
M A Shirer
 3/1
11
★★★★☆
69.5
  
2 Ontario S Fits
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
68.5
  
1 Caviar Breakfast E Misfit
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
67.7
  
4 For Love and Honor S Fits
B J Hernandez, Jr.
J Sharp
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
66.6
  
5 Amber Cascade —
F Prat
M J Maker
 8/1
7
★★★★☆
66.5
  
9 Buttons and Lace E Misfit
E Morales
M Boyce
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
66.2
 Longshot
7 Poppy the Princess —
A Concepcion
T Newton
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
64.2
  
6 Dare to Fly P Fits
L Machado
J Ennis
 30/1
5
★★★★☆
63.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Hear the Queen
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.6
Post · Horse Value Play
10
Bojaca Blessing
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J F D'Angelo
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse
8
She's Lookin Lucky
EP Neutral
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M A Shirer
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.5
Post · Horse
2
Ontario
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
1
Caviar Breakfast
E Misfit
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.7
Post · Horse
4
For Love and Honor
S Fits
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.6
Post · Horse
5
Amber Cascade
—
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
M J Maker
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.5
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Buttons and Lace
E Misfit
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
M Boyce
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse
7
Poppy the Princess
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
T Newton
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
6
Dare to Fly
P Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
J Ennis
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $400,000
Purse$400,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:16 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A premier $400,000 stakes clash sees #8 Conceit putting her three-race win streak on the line against Saratoga stakes winner #9 Mashallah. The central conflict is whether the expected speed duel between #11 Movie Night and #10 With a Kiss will allow #8 Conceit or #9 Mashallah to pounce first turning for home.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
4
P
2
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Mashallah should break on top. #12 Star Actress and #5 Yo Fancy drop to the back. 984611103217512
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 984611321017512
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #9 Mashallah is still in front. Moving forward: #3 Hen Party, #2 Mythical and #7 A Fine Chardonnay. 986411327105121

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 20.1%
Price horse: Mashallah (8/5 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Conceit EP Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
20
★★★★☆
79.4
 Top Pick
9 Mashallah E Neutral
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/5
16
★★★★☆
77.7
 Value Play
11 Movie Night EP Fits
F Prat
W Walden
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
76.3
  
3 Hen Party P Neutral
R Bejarano
E G Harty
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
72.1
  
2 Mythical P Neutral
E Jaramillo
J Delgado
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
70.8
 Longshot
12 Star Actress S Neutral
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 30/1
7
★★★★☆
70.1
  
7 A Fine Chardonnay S Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
70.0
  
5 Yo Fancy S Neutral
C A Torres
I R Wilkes
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
68.3
  
10 With a Kiss —
J R Velazquez
T A Pletcher
 20/1
5
★★★★☆
67.6
  
6 Percy's Bar EP Fits
J L Ortiz
B Colebrook
 6/1
5
★★★★☆
67.1
  
1 Army's Marauder —
L Saez
C Davis
 30/1
3
★★★★☆
64.3
  
4 Coco Connect EP Fits
E Morales
J Ennis
 50/1
2
★★★☆☆
57.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Conceit
EP Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.4
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Mashallah
E Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 77.7
Post · Horse
11
Movie Night
EP Fits
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
W Walden
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.3
Post · Horse
3
Hen Party
P Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
E G Harty
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.1
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Mythical
P Neutral
Jockey
E Jaramillo
Trainer
J Delgado
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.8
Post · Horse
12
Star Actress
S Neutral
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse
7
A Fine Chardonnay
S Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.0
Post · Horse
5
Yo Fancy
S Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
I R Wilkes
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.3
Post · Horse
10
With a Kiss
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
T A Pletcher
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse
6
Percy's Bar
EP Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
B Colebrook
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.1
Post · Horse
1
Army's Marauder
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.3
Post · Horse
4
Coco Connect
EP Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J Ennis
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #4 Petronella, #14 She Wants War, #15 Balright.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:48 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
EligibilityNon-winners of two races lifetime
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The Saturday finale is an all-out turf sprint dash where #5 Epic Lady Luck faces a cavalry charge of 16 speedsters. The race is defined by whether rail-hugging speed from #3 Twirling Claire and #1 Mechaya leaves enough daylight for #5 Epic Lady Luck and #11 Shirley Ann to surge past in the final 100 yards.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
4
P
1
S
5

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #8 Elite, #4 Petronella and #14 She Wants War all go for the lead. #5 Epic Lady Luck and #11 Shirley Ann drop to the back. 84141511061213163792115
  2. Middle around the turn #8 Elite, #4 Petronella and #14 She Wants War keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 84141151061213316792115
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Mechaya is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #3 Twirling Claire, #7 Zoe's Prime and #9 Paris Twilight. Tiring: #10 Windy Houston, #6 Ms. Jay Dee Em and #12 Vekoma's Diva. 13792115106121613841415

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 9.5%
Price horse: Shirley Ann (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Epic Lady Luck S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
G Weaver
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
65.5
 Top Pick
11 Shirley Ann S Fits
A Jimenez
C Vesty
 6/1
9
★★★★☆
65.3
 Value Play
4 Petronella E Misfit
F Prat
B P Walsh
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
63.9
 Longshot
3 Twirling Claire P Fits
L Saez
G D Foley
 4/1
8
★★★★☆
63.9
  
14 She Wants War E Misfit
J R Velazquez
W A Ward
 10/1
8
★★★★☆
63.8
  
2 Cactus Cairo S Fits
W Antongeorgi III
R D Walsh
 30/1
8
★★★★☆
63.6
  
1 Mechaya —
F Arrieta
J P DiVito
 6/1
7
★★★★☆
63.2
  
7 Zoe's Prime S Fits
A Concepcion
J M Camejo
 30/1
7
★★★★☆
62.7
  
9 Paris Twilight S Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
61.8
  
12 Vekoma's Diva EP Neutral
J R Velazquez
G Weaver
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
61.5
  
15 Balright E Misfit
R Bejarano
J Dixon, Jr.
 15/1
5
★★★★☆
60.8
  
16 Lady Revenge —
M Gutierrez
B A Lynch
 12/1
5
★★★★☆
60.4
  
10 Windy Houston EP Neutral
A Beschizza
K Danner
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
58.2
  
6 Ms. Jay Dee Em EP Neutral
J L Ortiz
M J Maker
 5/1
4
★★★☆☆
58.0
  
13 Solemn Vow EP Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
A M Stall, Jr.
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
56.3
  
8 Elite E Misfit
J C Bealmear
W L Mackey
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
53.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Epic Lady Luck
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
G Weaver
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.5
Post · Horse Value Play
11
Shirley Ann
S Fits
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
C Vesty
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Petronella
E Misfit
Jockey
F Prat
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse
3
Twirling Claire
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
G D Foley
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse
14
She Wants War
E Misfit
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W A Ward
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse
2
Cactus Cairo
S Fits
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
R D Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
1
Mechaya
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
J P DiVito
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.2
Post · Horse
7
Zoe's Prime
S Fits
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J M Camejo
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
9
Paris Twilight
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
12
Vekoma's Diva
EP Neutral
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
G Weaver
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
Post · Horse
15
Balright
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
J Dixon, Jr.
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.8
Post · Horse
16
Lady Revenge
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
B A Lynch
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
Post · Horse
10
Windy Houston
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
K Danner
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.2
Post · Horse
6
Ms. Jay Dee Em
EP Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M J Maker
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.0
Post · Horse
13
Solemn Vow
EP Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.3
Post · Horse
8
Elite
E Misfit
Jockey
J C Bealmear
Trainer
W L Mackey
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro