Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 1.

2026-10-18 Race 1 Morning Card
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Card signals
Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R6
Appeals to Me #10
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Bolt Dior #6
15/1 ML
Deepest field
R9
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R3
Fast Pace
3 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland's nine-race program features competitive claiming action on the main track paired with high-class turf affairs, highlighted by the $350,000 stakes marathon in Race 7. Two-year-old maiden races in Races 4, 6, and 9 demand careful scrutiny between exposed form and sharp morning preparation, with Race 6 offering the card's most dependable favorite in Appeals to Me. Across the competitive claiming brackets and open turf sequences, tactical pace advantages and recent class drops provide reliable angles against vulnerable morning-line favorites.
Races 9 Status Completed View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $62,500
Purse$66,000
Claiming$62,500
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size7
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A competitive field of seven kicks off the card where #7 Carol's Melody looks to parlay solid Churchill Downs figures into a stalking score, but faces early pace pressure from #3 Alta Avenue cutting back in distance.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
1
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Miss Enchanted should break on top. #6 Bolt Dior and #7 Carol's Melody drop to the back. 2513476
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 2513476
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Miss Enchanted is still in front. Moving forward: #3 Alta Avenue, #4 Tizianna and #7 Carol's Melody. 2513476

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.9%
Price horse: Alta Avenue (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Carol's Melody S Neutral
J L Ortiz
E Kenneally
 6/5
22
★★★★☆
69.2
 Top Pick
3 Alta Avenue P Neutral
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 6/1
20
★★★★☆
68.5
 Value Play
1 Turkish Pistachio EP Fits
A Mendoza
G Garcia
 8/1
18
★★★★☆
67.5
  
5 No What Ifs EP Fits
J Loveberry
G T Forster
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
66.3
  
2 Miss Enchanted E Neutral
L Saez
D L Romans
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
63.0
  
6 Bolt Dior S Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
T Girten
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
60.0
 Longshot
4 Tizianna S Neutral
E Morales
M A Shirer
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
58.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Carol's Melody
S Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
E Kenneally
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Alta Avenue
P Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
1
Turkish Pistachio
EP Fits
Jockey
A Mendoza
Trainer
G Garcia
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.5
Post · Horse
5
No What Ifs
EP Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
G T Forster
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse
2
Miss Enchanted
E Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
D L Romans
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Bolt Dior
S Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
T Girten
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 60.0
Post · Horse
4
Tizianna
S Neutral
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
M A Shirer
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$50,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Ten two-turn claimers line up where #8 Song of Songs drops into claiming company off a solid morning work tab, while Thistledown shipper #3 Tia Lupe attempts to stretch her speed around two turns.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
2
S
6

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Spun Up should break on top. #10 Morgs World and #3 Tia Lupe drop to the back. 91658274310
  2. Middle around the turn #9 Spun Up sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 91658274310
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #9 Spun Up is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 91658274310

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.4%
Price horse: Tia Lupe (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Song of Songs S Neutral
L Saez
C M Block
 12/1
17
★★★★☆
66.5
 Top Pick
3 Tia Lupe S Neutral
J A Torres
E Lopez
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
63.6
 Value Play
6 Richiesgoldengirl P Neutral
J Loveberry
L Rivelli
 20/1
12
★★★★☆
63.2
 Longshot
10 Morgs World S Neutral
J C Bealmear
N G Goodwin
 15/1
11
★★★★☆
62.7
  
7 Parking Lot Pours S Neutral
C A Torres
M A Silva
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
61.9
  
5 Wild Acclaim P Neutral
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
61.9
  
9 Spun Up E Fits
E Esquivel
C Contreras
 4/1
9
★★★★☆
60.5
  
2 Flirtin Again S Neutral
F Arrieta
A Shorter
 5/2
7
★★★☆☆
58.5
  
4 Tiz Salty S Neutral
B Curtis
M R Thompson
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
1 Wildest Problem EP Fits
D Cannon
J B Roberts
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Song of Songs
S Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C M Block
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.5
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Tia Lupe
S Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
E Lopez
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Richiesgoldengirl
P Neutral
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
L Rivelli
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.2
Post · Horse
10
Morgs World
S Neutral
Jockey
J C Bealmear
Trainer
N G Goodwin
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
7
Parking Lot Pours
S Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
M A Silva
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
5
Wild Acclaim
P Neutral
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
9
Spun Up
E Fits
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
C Contreras
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
2
Flirtin Again
S Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
A Shorter
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
Post · Horse
4
Tiz Salty
S Neutral
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M R Thompson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
Post · Horse
1
Wildest Problem
EP Fits
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
J B Roberts
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #5 Here Comes Braylon, #2 Brigadier General, #10 Magic Grant.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance
Purse$51,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/8 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
The nine-furlong distance tests stamina across this ten-horse field, asking whether morning-line favorite #4 Excel Calculator can finish off his race after grinding through mid-80s figures against tough Churchill fields.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
1
P
2
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #2 Brigadier General, #5 Here Comes Braylon and #10 Magic Grant all go for the lead. #4 Excel Calculator and #7 Hurry Hurry drop to the back. 25106913874
  2. Middle around the turn #2 Brigadier General, #5 Here Comes Braylon and #10 Magic Grant keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 25109613874
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #9 Sugoi has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Single Dot Yaht, #8 Company You Keep and #7 Hurry Hurry. Tiring: #6 Pappy's Revenge, #2 Brigadier General and #5 Here Comes Braylon. 93871462510

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 21.7%
Price horse: Sugoi (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Excel Calculator S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 3/2
22
★★★★☆
70.4
 Top Pick
9 Sugoi P Fits
F Arrieta
I Bahena
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
63.8
 Value Play
8 Company You Keep S Fits
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 7/2
10
★★★★☆
63.6
 Longshot
3 Single Dot Yaht S Fits
C A Torres
R G Crichton
 15/1
10
★★★★☆
63.5
  
6 Pappy's Revenge EP Neutral
A Mendoza
G Garcia
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
63.3
  
5 Here Comes Braylon E Misfit
A Concepcion
H Irion
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
63.0
  
1 Bestfriend Rocket P Fits
L Machado
M P Sims
 9/2
9
★★★★☆
62.5
  
7 Hurry Hurry S Fits
L Saez
D Jacobson
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
62.0
  
2 Brigadier General E Misfit
R Bejarano
P J McGee
 6/1
7
★★★★☆
61.2
  
10 Magic Grant E Misfit
D Cannon
J B Roberts
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
60.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Excel Calculator
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse Value Play
9
Sugoi
P Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
I Bahena
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Company You Keep
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
3
Single Dot Yaht
S Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R G Crichton
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
6
Pappy's Revenge
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Mendoza
Trainer
G Garcia
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.3
Post · Horse
5
Here Comes Braylon
E Misfit
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
H Irion
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
1
Bestfriend Rocket
P Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
M P Sims
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.5
Post · Horse
7
Hurry Hurry
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
D Jacobson
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
2
Brigadier General
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
P J McGee
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse
10
Magic Grant
E Misfit
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
J B Roberts
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A field of eight juvenile maidens pits first-time starters against experienced runners, headlined by the question of whether well-connected firster #8 Informer is fast enough on debut to outfinish #5 No Mo Sun.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
1
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 No Mo Sun should break on top. #1 Lindenborg drops to the back. 53762841
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 57328641
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 No Mo Sun is still in front. Moving forward: #1 Lindenborg. Tiring: #3 Lookism and #6 Prairie Avenue. 57283641

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.3%
Price horse: No Mo Sun (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 Informer —
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 2/1
18
★★★☆☆
48.4
 Top Pick
5 No Mo Sun E Neutral
R Bejarano
D F O'Neill
 3/1
17
★★★☆☆
47.9
 Value Play
7 Croatoan —
L Saez
A M Meah
 6/1
15
★★★☆☆
46.4
 Longshot
2 Munningsredprince —
J Loveberry
R C Cline
 8/1
13
★★★☆☆
45.6
  
3 Lookism EP Fits
W Antongeorgi III
C Caramori
 12/1
12
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
1 Lindenborg P Neutral
W A Rodriguez
E Caramori
 4/1
12
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
6 Prairie Avenue EP Fits
D Cannon
L D Johnston
 12/1
7
★★☆☆☆
40.0
  
4 Smart N Centsible —
G Corrales
J K Sweezey
 15/1
5
★★☆☆☆
37.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
Informer
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
2/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.4
Post · Horse Value Play
5
No Mo Sun
E Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D F O'Neill
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Croatoan
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
A M Meah
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.4
Post · Horse
2
Munningsredprince
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
R C Cline
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.6
Post · Horse
3
Lookism
EP Fits
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
C Caramori
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
1
Lindenborg
P Neutral
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
E Caramori
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
6
Prairie Avenue
EP Fits
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
L D Johnston
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 40.0
Post · Horse
4
Smart N Centsible
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 37.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #3 Tonka Warrior, #8 Pierre, #5 Judge Davis.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Rating, Restricted, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never
Purse$140,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A full field of ten turf routers square off where #3 Tonka Warrior drops out of a competitive Saratoga allowance, seeking to hold off #1 Johny's Rendezvous and Colonial shipper #4 Papa Golf.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
2
P
1
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Tonka Warrior and #5 Judge Davis go for the lead together. #9 Mesero and #10 Covert Law drop to the back. 35814276109
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Tonka Warrior, #5 Judge Davis and #8 Pierre keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 35814276109
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #6 Green Light has taken over in front. Moving forward: #7 Sumood, #10 Covert Law and #9 Mesero. Tiring: #1 Johny's Rendezvous, #4 Papa Golf and #3 Tonka Warrior. 67109214358

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 16.5%
Price horse: Johny's Rendezvous (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Tonka Warrior E Misfit
J A Hernandez
M Robertson
 15/1
16
★★★★☆
74.2
 Top Pick
1 Johny's Rendezvous EP Neutral
J L Ortiz
P A Bauer
 7/2
11
★★★★☆
71.0
 Value Play
4 Papa Golf EP Neutral
L Saez
J F D'Angelo
 20/1
10
★★★★☆
70.4
 Longshot
9 Mesero S Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
D L Romans
 5/2
10
★★★★☆
70.4
  
8 Pierre E Misfit
R Bejarano
D Jacobson
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
70.1
  
10 Covert Law S Fits
J Alvarado
C A David
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
69.8
  
7 Sumood P Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
68.5
  
6 Green Light S Fits
L Machado
J Ennis
 9/2
8
★★★★☆
68.4
  
5 Judge Davis E Misfit
J R Velazquez
M J Maker
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
68.0
  
2 Show of Force —
E Morales
G Garcia
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
66.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Tonka Warrior
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Hernandez
Trainer
M Robertson
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.2
Post · Horse Value Play
1
Johny's Rendezvous
EP Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
P A Bauer
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.0
Post · Horse Longshot
4
Papa Golf
EP Neutral
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J F D'Angelo
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse
9
Mesero
S Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
D L Romans
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse
8
Pierre
E Misfit
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
D Jacobson
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse
10
Covert Law
S Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
C A David
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.8
Post · Horse
7
Sumood
P Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
6
Green Light
S Fits
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
J Ennis
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse
5
Judge Davis
E Misfit
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M J Maker
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse
2
Show of Force
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G Garcia
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old Fillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Eleven juvenile fillies sprint six furlongs where #10 Appeals to Me stands as the day's clearest standout following an eye-catching debut runner-up performance, challenged by #8 Blazing Sunset and well-bred firsters.
PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 38.6%
Price horse: Blazing Sunset (4/1 ML)
Exotic Ticket Pack (1 ticket identified). Pro members see sized exacta & trifecta tickets with hit probabilities for this race.
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Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
10 Appeals to Me —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 5/2
39
★★★★☆
62.6
 Top Pick
8 Blazing Sunset —
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 4/1
16
★★★☆☆
55.0
 Value Play
2 Georgy Girl —
J R Velazquez
M E Casse
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.9
 Longshot
4 Skindred Spirit —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 4/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.8
  
7 First Look —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 8/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.1
  
1 Winter White
G Corrales
N W Casse
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.3
  
11 Topeka —
A Concepcion
J Sharp
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
5 Ali Darling —
D Machado
M P Sims
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.9
  
9 America Votes —
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 15/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.5
  
3 Bourbon O'Clock —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
I R Wilkes
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.6
  
6 Ms Candice —
L Machado
B Colebrook
 10/1
4
★★★☆☆
42.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
10
Appeals to Me
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
39
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Blazing Sunset
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Georgy Girl
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M E Casse
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
4
Skindred Spirit
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.8
Post · Horse
7
First Look
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
1
Winter White
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
N W Casse
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.3
Post · Horse
11
Topeka
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
J Sharp
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
5
Ali Darling
—
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
M P Sims
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.9
Post · Horse
9
America Votes
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.5
Post · Horse
3
Bourbon O'Clock
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
I R Wilkes
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse
6
Ms Candice
—
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
B Colebrook
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $350,000
Purse$350,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/2 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size12
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A marathon twelve-horse field contests this $350,000 turf stakes at 12 furlongs, asking whether Brad Cox trainee #5 Fionn can outstay graded-caliber rivals #4 Pretty Tapit and #12 Modarosa over the sweeping Keeneland turf.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
1
EP
2
P
1
S
6

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #11 Venencia should break on top. #6 Snipsnippitysnip and #3 Sky Low Low drop to the back. 112812754911036
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 118212754911036
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #8 Golden Sunshine is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #5 Fionn, #4 Pretty Tapit and #9 Speed Shopper. 811251274911036

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 15.3%
Price horse: Pretty Tapit (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Fionn P Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
76.4
 Top Pick
4 Pretty Tapit S Neutral
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 9/2
12
★★★★☆
74.6
 Value Play
12 Modarosa EP Fits
J Alvarado
R Mott
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
73.1
  
10 Somethinabouther S Neutral
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
9
★★★★☆
72.3
 Longshot
8 Golden Sunshine —
L Saez
E G Harty
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
72.2
  
2 Malibu Smart EP Fits
B Curtis
M J Maker
 15/1
9
★★★★☆
72.1
  
9 Speed Shopper S Neutral
J R Velazquez
W Walden
 7/2
8
★★★★☆
70.9
  
1 Massarat S Neutral
D Sheehy
B P Walsh
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
70.4
  
6 Snipsnippitysnip S Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
B P Walsh
 12/1
7
★★★★☆
70.2
  
11 Venencia E Neutral
J A Torres
S A Joseph, Jr.
 30/1
5
★★★★☆
67.6
  
7 Poppy the Princess —
A Concepcion
T Newton
 50/1
4
★★★★☆
65.3
  
3 Sky Low Low S Neutral
D Cannon
A DeVaux
 50/1
2
★★★☆☆
57.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Fionn
P Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 76.4
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Pretty Tapit
S Neutral
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 74.6
Post · Horse
12
Modarosa
EP Fits
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Mott
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.1
Post · Horse Longshot
10
Somethinabouther
S Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.3
Post · Horse
8
Golden Sunshine
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
E G Harty
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.2
Post · Horse
2
Malibu Smart
EP Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M J Maker
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.1
Post · Horse
9
Speed Shopper
S Neutral
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W Walden
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse
1
Massarat
S Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse
6
Snipsnippitysnip
S Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
B P Walsh
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.2
Post · Horse
11
Venencia
E Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.6
Post · Horse
7
Poppy the Princess
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
T Newton
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.3
Post · Horse
3
Sky Low Low
S Neutral
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
A DeVaux
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 12-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #6 Kid Twist, #10 Rocky Raccoon, #9 Mandy's Man Can.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $40,000
Purse$58,000
Claiming$40,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size10
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
Ten sprinters dash six furlongs in a $40,000 claimer where Indiana shipper #4 Big Boy Thunder looks to extend his winning form against seasoned Churchill veteran #6 Kid Twist.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
3
P
2
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #10 Rocky Raccoon, #9 Mandy's Man Can and #6 Kid Twist all go for the lead. #4 Big Boy Thunder and #2 Ring Curl drop to the back. 10965381724
  2. Middle around the turn #10 Rocky Raccoon, #9 Mandy's Man Can and #6 Kid Twist keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 10965137824
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Love in Lights has taken over in front. Moving forward: #7 Antrax, #2 Ring Curl and #4 Big Boy Thunder. Tiring: #10 Rocky Raccoon, #9 Mandy's Man Can and #6 Kid Twist. 17245381096

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.8%
Price horse: Kid Twist (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Big Boy Thunder S Fits
F De La Cruz
J L Greenhill
 8/1
16
★★★★☆
65.4
 Top Pick
6 Kid Twist E Misfit
B Curtis
A Shorter
 10/1
15
★★★★☆
64.7
 Value Play
3 Grande Sorpreso EP Neutral
F Arrieta
I R Wilkes
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
63.5
  
10 Rocky Raccoon E Misfit
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
62.7
  
5 Intuitive Wisdom EP Neutral
T Gaffalione
N Vaccarezza
 6/1
10
★★★★☆
61.4
  
1 Love in Lights P Fits
M Gutierrez
A Stephen
 20/1
9
★★★★☆
60.7
 Longshot
9 Mandy's Man Can E Misfit
W A Rodriguez
P H Lobo
 9/2
9
★★★★☆
60.5
  
7 Antrax P Fits
E Morales
J K Sweezey
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
57.4
  
8 Equilibrium EP Neutral
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.6
  
2 Ring Curl S Fits
J L Ortiz
T S Wismer
 3/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Big Boy Thunder
S Fits
Jockey
F De La Cruz
Trainer
J L Greenhill
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse Value Play
6
Kid Twist
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.7
Post · Horse
3
Grande Sorpreso
EP Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
I R Wilkes
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
10
Rocky Raccoon
E Misfit
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
5
Intuitive Wisdom
EP Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Love in Lights
P Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
A Stephen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.7
Post · Horse
9
Mandy's Man Can
E Misfit
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
P H Lobo
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse
7
Antrax
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
J K Sweezey
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.4
Post · Horse
8
Equilibrium
EP Neutral
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
Post · Horse
2
Ring Curl
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
T S Wismer
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:16 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexTwo Years Old
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Storyline
A massive field of two-year-old turf routers concludes the card, turning on whether #9 Time in Motion can replicate his sharp Churchill turf runner-up effort against wide-drawn runner #15 Yalta.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
2
P
4
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #5 Epic Roll and #1 Noe Standard Risk go for the lead together. #15 Yalta drops to the back. 51121011161492346781315
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 51121011169141572346813
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #5 Epic Roll is still in front. Moving forward: #9 Time in Motion and #15 Yalta. 51211011169151472346813

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 20.2%
Price horse: Yalta (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Time in Motion S Neutral
A Concepcion
W Walden
 5/2
20
★★★★☆
60.5
 Top Pick
15 Yalta S Neutral
J R Velazquez
K Danner
 6/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.0
 Value Play
7 Rivelli —
J Loveberry
L Rivelli
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
54.1
  
11 Bold Speaker P Neutral
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 9/2
9
★★★☆☆
53.6
  
5 Epic Roll EP Fits
B Curtis
K LaRose
 4/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
12 Beck's Sam P Neutral
C A Torres
C Torres
 10/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.7
  
16 Silver Jewel P Neutral
M Gutierrez
P Matejka
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.6
  
10 Mystic Ruler P Neutral
J R Velazquez
M J Maker
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
1 Noe Standard Risk EP Fits
D Sheehy
A M Meah
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.9
  
13 Arrival Time —
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
48.8
 Longshot
14 Platinum Power —
J A Torres
S E Shaffer
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
2 Sagamore —
V R Carrasco
I R Wilkes
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
44.0
  
8 Eight Hundred —
G Corrales
J Hamilton
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.7
  
4 Naxian
L Saez
M Nihei
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.2
  
3 Midway Gold —
C Jimenez
M Douaihy
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.8
  
6 Which One —
E Morales
G R Arnold II
 15/1
2
★★★☆☆
41.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Time in Motion
S Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
W Walden
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
Post · Horse Value Play
15
Yalta
S Neutral
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
K Danner
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
Post · Horse
7
Rivelli
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
L Rivelli
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.1
Post · Horse
11
Bold Speaker
P Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.6
Post · Horse
5
Epic Roll
EP Fits
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
K LaRose
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
12
Beck's Sam
P Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
C Torres
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.7
Post · Horse
16
Silver Jewel
P Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P Matejka
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.6
Post · Horse
10
Mystic Ruler
P Neutral
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M J Maker
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse
1
Noe Standard Risk
EP Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
A M Meah
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.9
Post · Horse Longshot
13
Arrival Time
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.8
Post · Horse
14
Platinum Power
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
S E Shaffer
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
Post · Horse
2
Sagamore
—
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
I R Wilkes
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.0
Post · Horse
8
Eight Hundred
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
J Hamilton
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.7
Post · Horse
4
Naxian
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M Nihei
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.2
Post · Horse
3
Midway Gold
—
Jockey
C Jimenez
Trainer
M Douaihy
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.8
Post · Horse
6
Which One
—
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
G R Arnold II
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro