Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 5.

2026-10-21 Race 5 Morning Card
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Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R2
Miami Frank #5
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Flanker #9
8/1 ML
Deepest field
R8
16 runners
16
Pace shape
R5
Lone Speed
#4 Social Deception
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland's Wednesday program presents competitive dirt sprints, testing two-turn maiden events, and sharp turf dashes across eight races. Field sizes are robust throughout, offering attractive overlay opportunities particularly in the two-year-old turf maiden (Race 8) and the competitive dirt starter allowance (Race 7). Bettors should lean into proven pace dynamics on the dirt course while seeking value among lightly-raced juvenile runners progressing second-time out.
Races 8 Status Completed View Morning
Full
Card 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$65,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
A field of nine juvenile maidens matches up at six furlongs, where Steve Asmussen firster #1 Black Jacket Crazy draws the rail against #3 Pop and Locke, who brings field-best race experience off a 72 speed figure at Kentucky Downs.
PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.1%
Price horse: Pop and Locke (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
1 Black Jacket Crazy —
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 3/1
18
★★★☆☆
50.4
 Top Pick
3 Pop and Locke —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 9/2
15
★★★☆☆
48.9
 Value Play
2 Magical Mikel P —
I Ortiz, Jr.
K G McPeek
 5/2
13
★★★☆☆
47.7
  
7 Midnight Burst —
B Curtis
N G Goodwin
 20/1
12
★★★☆☆
46.7
  
6 Mandalay —
A Concepcion
L Briley
 20/1
10
★★★☆☆
45.2
  
4 Nickyb —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D L Romans
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
8 Night Knight EP —
L Machado
A Navarrete
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
9 Flanker —
G Corrales
N W Casse
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
42.7
 Longshot
5 Ghost Wish —
A Espinoza
D K Von Hemel
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
41.1
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
1
Black Jacket Crazy
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Pop and Locke
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.9
Post · Horse
2
Magical Mikel
P —
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
K G McPeek
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.7
Post · Horse
7
Midnight Burst
—
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
N G Goodwin
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.7
Post · Horse
6
Mandalay
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
L Briley
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.2
Post · Horse
4
Nickyb
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D L Romans
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
8
Night Knight
EP —
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
A Navarrete
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Flanker
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
N W Casse
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.7
Post · Horse
5
Ghost Wish
—
Jockey
A Espinoza
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.1
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #9 Fort Campbell, #8 Don't Fire Joe.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price $20,000
Purse$50,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward. Claiming Price $20,000
Storyline
A tightly-matched $20,000 claiming route features #5 Miami Frank returning to dirt after facing tough Saratoga company, but he must hold off in-form synthetic and dirt routers #4 Mr Randy and #6 East Village.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
4
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #8 Don't Fire Joe and #9 Fort Campbell go for the lead together. #5 Miami Frank and #1 Vaccinator drop to the back. 896243715
  2. Middle around the turn #8 Don't Fire Joe and #9 Fort Campbell keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 896243715
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Jinxzi has taken over in front. Moving forward: #4 Mr Randy, #3 Aerate and #7 First of His Name. Tiring: #8 Don't Fire Joe and #9 Fort Campbell. 243671589

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Contenders are tightly grouped; play small and demand a fair price
Top win chance: 18.8%
Price horse: Mr Randy (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Miami Frank S Fits
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 5/2
19
★★★★☆
66.0
 Top Pick
4 Mr Randy P Fits
J L Ortiz
T Girten
 3/1
18
★★★★☆
65.5
 Value Play
9 Fort Campbell E Misfit
T Gaffalione
R Diodoro
 8/1
15
★★★★☆
64.2
 Longshot
6 East Village EP Neutral
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 7/2
15
★★★★☆
63.9
  
3 Aerate P Fits
D Sheehy
K LaRose
 6/1
11
★★★★☆
61.4
  
7 First of His Name P Fits
E Morales
A McKeever
 12/1
9
★★★☆☆
59.8
  
2 Jinxzi P Fits
V R Carrasco
I R Wilkes
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
56.2
  
8 Don't Fire Joe E Misfit
A Concepcion
D W Roberson
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
55.5
  
1 Vaccinator S Fits
J Riquelme
M S Hayes
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
48.0
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Miami Frank
S Fits
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.0
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Mr Randy
P Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
T Girten
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.5
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Fort Campbell
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
R Diodoro
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.2
Post · Horse
6
East Village
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse
3
Aerate
P Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
K LaRose
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
7
First of His Name
P Fits
Jockey
E Morales
Trainer
A McKeever
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.8
Post · Horse
2
Jinxzi
P Fits
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
I R Wilkes
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.2
Post · Horse
8
Don't Fire Joe
E Misfit
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
D W Roberson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.5
Post · Horse
1
Vaccinator
S Fits
Jockey
J Riquelme
Trainer
M S Hayes
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.0
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$78,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
Jonathan Thomas unveils firster #7 Lakeville Love over six and a half furlongs, but she faces an experienced rival in #3 La Noche Negra, who ran a strong 79 speed figure two starts back at Churchill Downs.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 20.4%
Price horse: La Noche Negra (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Lakeville Love
J L Ortiz
J Thomas
 5/1
20
★★★☆☆
56.9
 Top Pick
3 La Noche Negra S —
J A Torres
C Munoz
 10/1
15
★★★☆☆
54.5
 Value Play
5 Fair Practice E —
T Gaffalione
C C Brown
 5/2
13
★★★☆☆
52.9
  
11 Lady Lichi —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
10
★★★☆☆
50.5
  
1 Sheza Go Getter EP —
A Concepcion
S M Asmussen
 12/1
9
★★★☆☆
49.8
  
9 Jackie and Ginger
L Saez
J Sharp
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
47.6
 Longshot
4 Livvo —
J R Velazquez
M E Casse
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.0
  
2 Midnight Sage —
A Jimenez
M B Campbell
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
6 Go Missy Go —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 12/1
6
★★★☆☆
45.8
  
8 Prayer to Lucia —
G Corrales
K R Von Hemel
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
10 Lenlew's —
A Cedillo
L Schultz
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Lakeville Love
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Thomas
20
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 56.9
Post · Horse Value Play
3
La Noche Negra
S —
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
C Munoz
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.5
Post · Horse
5
Fair Practice
E —
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
C C Brown
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.9
Post · Horse
11
Lady Lichi
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.5
Post · Horse
1
Sheza Go Getter
EP —
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
S M Asmussen
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse Longshot
9
Jackie and Ginger
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
4
Livvo
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M E Casse
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.0
Post · Horse
2
Midnight Sage
—
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
M B Campbell
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
6
Go Missy Go
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse
8
Prayer to Lucia
—
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
K R Von Hemel
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
10
Lenlew's
—
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
L Schultz
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #7 Money Run, #3 Proprietary Trade, #4 Saltwater Cowboy.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $20,000 Or Less In 2025 - 2026
Purse$69,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have started for a claiming price of $20,000 or less in 2025 - 2026
Storyline
Seven furlongs of seasoned dirt sprinters sees #2 Two Seven O attempt to capitalize on a class edge off a 98 speed figure over this track, while #7 Money Run arrives boasting huge figures from Oaklawn Park.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
4
EP
4
P
0
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Proprietary Trade, #1 Tiz Mary's Comet and #7 Money Run all go for the lead. #2 Two Seven O drops to the back. 317469582
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Proprietary Trade, #1 Tiz Mary's Comet and #7 Money Run keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 317469582
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Two Seven O has taken over in front. Moving forward: #6 First Strike, #9 Five o' Somewhere and #5 Cool Cowboy. Tiring: #3 Proprietary Trade, #1 Tiz Mary's Comet and #7 Money Run. 269583174

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 15.2%
Price horse: Money Run (3/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
2 Two Seven O S Fits
F Arrieta
D Fawkes
 6/1
15
★★★★☆
73.3
 Top Pick
7 Money Run E Misfit
C A Torres
R Diodoro
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
73.0
 Value Play
3 Proprietary Trade E Misfit
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 5/2
12
★★★★☆
71.5
  
9 Five o' Somewhere EP Neutral
M Gutierrez
M A Shirer
 4/1
12
★★★★☆
71.4
  
4 Saltwater Cowboy E Misfit
L Saez
C A David
 12/1
12
★★★★☆
70.9
  
1 Tiz Mary's Comet E Misfit
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 4/1
11
★★★★☆
70.4
  
8 Clooney EP Neutral
A Concepcion
G D Foley
 8/1
10
★★★★☆
69.6
 Longshot
5 Cool Cowboy EP Neutral
A Cedillo
M Simms, Jr.
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
68.4
  
6 First Strike EP Neutral
R Bejarano
M A Kendrick
 30/1
5
★★★★☆
63.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
2
Two Seven O
S Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
D Fawkes
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.3
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Money Run
E Misfit
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Diodoro
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.0
Post · Horse
3
Proprietary Trade
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
9
Five o' Somewhere
EP Neutral
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
M A Shirer
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.4
Post · Horse
4
Saltwater Cowboy
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C A David
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse
1
Tiz Mary's Comet
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.4
Post · Horse Longshot
8
Clooney
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
G D Foley
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse
5
Cool Cowboy
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
M Simms, Jr.
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.4
Post · Horse
6
First Strike
EP Neutral
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
M A Kendrick
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Only one horse wants the lead. It should get an easy trip up front. Wants the lead: #4 Social Deception.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
Stretching out around two turns for the first time, #6 Solar Horizon looks to build on his debut 78 speed figure for Brad Cox, while #4 Social Deception enters with back-to-back runner-up efforts at Ellis and Kentucky Downs.
Pace shape Lone Speed
E
1
EP
0
P
1
S
2

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Lone Speed
  1. Early leaving the gate #4 Social Deception is the only one who wants the lead and should get it easily. #1 Sky Warrior and #7 Justification drop to the back. 4623589101171
  2. Middle around the turn #4 Social Deception is loose on the lead with nobody pressing. 4623589101171
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Social Deception is still in front. Moving forward: #11 Party in the Grove. 4621135891071

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 19.1%
Price horse: Social Deception (8/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Solar Horizon —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 9/2
19
★★★☆☆
58.7
 Top Pick
4 Social Deception E Fits
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 8/1
18
★★★☆☆
58.1
 Value Play
7 Justification S Misfit
A Concepcion
G R Arnold II
 10/1
14
★★★☆☆
55.9
 Longshot
2 Jackpot Rocket —
J Alvarado
W I Mott
 3/1
12
★★★☆☆
54.4
  
3 Majestic Valor —
J L Ortiz
K G McPeek
 7/2
7
★★★☆☆
50.6
  
1 Sky Warrior S Misfit
L Saez
M E Casse
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
9 Objectivity —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 6/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.6
  
5 Grand Larceny —
J R Velazquez
D Beckman
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.6
  
11 Party in the Grove P Neutral
A Jimenez
B Colebrook
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
47.2
  
8 Honest Truth —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
C DeVaux
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.8
  
10 Tower Hill —
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
45.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Solar Horizon
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Social Deception
E Fits
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.1
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Justification
S Misfit
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
G R Arnold II
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.9
Post · Horse
2
Jackpot Rocket
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
W I Mott
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.4
Post · Horse
3
Majestic Valor
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K G McPeek
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.6
Post · Horse
1
Sky Warrior
S Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M E Casse
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
9
Objectivity
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
5
Grand Larceny
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
D Beckman
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.6
Post · Horse
11
Party in the Grove
P Neutral
Jockey
A Jimenez
Trainer
B Colebrook
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.2
Post · Horse
8
Honest Truth
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
C DeVaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse
10
Tower Hill
—
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Le Amazonia, #3 Keyana.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Rating, Restricted, Or State Bred
Purse$150,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceTurf
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size9
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Claiming, Starter, Rating, Restricted, Or State Bred. Five And One Half Furlongs on the
Storyline
A rapid 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint matches #6 Big Trouble, who pairs two 96+ speed figures this summer, against Wesley Ward turf specialist #7 Saturday Flirt who brings early foot from the outside.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
1
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Keyana and #4 Le Amazonia go for the lead together. #6 Big Trouble and #7 Saturday Flirt drop to the back. 348521976
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Keyana and #4 Le Amazonia keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 348521976
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #8 Lovely Emma has taken over in front. Moving forward: #2 Do Gooder, #9 Sanctify and #7 Saturday Flirt. Tiring: #3 Keyana and #4 Le Amazonia. 852976341

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 18.7%
Price horse: Saturday Flirt (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
6 Big Trouble S Fits
T Gaffalione
G D Foley
 5/2
19
★★★★☆
71.2
 Top Pick
7 Saturday Flirt S Fits
J R Velazquez
W A Ward
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
70.6
 Value Play
8 Lovely Emma EP Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
P Eurton
 3/1
16
★★★★☆
70.1
  
4 Le Amazonia E Misfit
J Alvarado
V Barboza, Jr.
 5/1
13
★★★★☆
67.9
  
5 Me Governor —
L Saez
J Sharp
 10/1
11
★★★★☆
67.0
 Longshot
9 Sanctify S Fits
F Arrieta
H Holsapple
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
62.1
  
1 Storm Cloud Rising —
M Fernandez
A Cambray
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
62.0
  
3 Keyana E Misfit
W A Rodriguez
D Leitch
 15/1
6
★★★★☆
62.0
  
2 Do Gooder P Fits
A Beschizza
J M Antonucci
 9/2
4
★★★☆☆
58.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
6
Big Trouble
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
G D Foley
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.2
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Saturday Flirt
S Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W A Ward
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.6
Post · Horse
8
Lovely Emma
EP Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
P Eurton
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse
4
Le Amazonia
E Misfit
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
V Barboza, Jr.
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Me Governor
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.0
Post · Horse
9
Sanctify
S Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
H Holsapple
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.1
Post · Horse
1
Storm Cloud Rising
—
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
A Cambray
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
3
Keyana
E Misfit
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
D Leitch
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.0
Post · Horse
2
Do Gooder
P Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J M Antonucci
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #5 Wonder Mist, #6 Slobberknocker, #8 Rugged Love.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two R
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size11
Eligibility & Weights
Age/Sexthree year olds
Eligibilitywhich have never won two races or claiming/starter/state bred allowance conditions
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For three year olds and upward which have never won two races or claiming/starter/state bred allowance conditions
Storyline
Consistent router #4 Pagode has finished runner-up in four consecutive starts with figures up to 103, but must turn back a dangerous synthetic-to-dirt runner in #5 Wonder Mist and deep-closing longshot #6 Slobberknocker.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
3
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #8 Rugged Love, #5 Wonder Mist and #6 Slobberknocker all go for the lead. #2 Bridgesong and #11 Bourbon Flight drop to the back. 8569107314112
  2. Middle around the turn #8 Rugged Love, #5 Wonder Mist and #6 Slobberknocker keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 8569731104112
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #4 Pagode has taken over in front. Moving forward: #11 Bourbon Flight, #2 Bridgesong and #7 Find No Fault. Tiring: #8 Rugged Love, #5 Wonder Mist and #6 Slobberknocker. 4119273110856

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 14.4%
Price horse: Wonder Mist (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 Pagode S Fits
L Saez
J Sharp
 5/2
14
★★★★☆
71.0
 Top Pick
5 Wonder Mist E Misfit
I Ortiz, Jr.
W A Ward
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
70.9
 Value Play
11 Bourbon Flight S Fits
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 7/2
13
★★★★☆
70.1
  
9 Fuzzbuster —
J R Velazquez
V H Oliver
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
69.7
  
6 Slobberknocker E Misfit
J A Hernandez
M Robertson
 30/1
12
★★★★☆
69.2
 Longshot
3 Freddie B P Fits
E Esquivel
K G McPeek
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
67.8
  
8 Rugged Love E Misfit
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 8/1
8
★★★★☆
65.6
  
7 Find No Fault P Fits
G Corrales
D L Romans
 20/1
7
★★★★☆
64.8
  
10 C McGriff —
J Alvarado
R Medina
 20/1
4
★★★★☆
60.3
  
1 Sure to Appeal P Fits
D Cannon
B A Lynch
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
59.0
  
2 Bridgesong S Fits
M Gutierrez
P A Bauer
 20/1
2
★★★☆☆
55.7
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
Pagode
S Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.0
Post · Horse Value Play
5
Wonder Mist
E Misfit
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
W A Ward
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.9
Post · Horse
11
Bourbon Flight
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.1
Post · Horse
9
Fuzzbuster
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
V H Oliver
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.7
Post · Horse Longshot
6
Slobberknocker
E Misfit
Jockey
J A Hernandez
Trainer
M Robertson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse
3
Freddie B
P Fits
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
K G McPeek
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.8
Post · Horse
8
Rugged Love
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
7
Find No Fault
P Fits
Jockey
G Corrales
Trainer
D L Romans
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
10
C McGriff
—
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Medina
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.3
Post · Horse
1
Sure to Appeal
P Fits
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
B A Lynch
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse
2
Bridgesong
S Fits
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
P A Bauer
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 11-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size16
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. One And One Sixteenth Miles on
Storyline
The card finale is an overflowing field of juvenile turf fillies where #15 Cyber Gal seeks to convert consecutive maiden placings against #12 Novo Mesto, who posted an 84 speed figure in her debut at Churchill Downs.
PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 13.5%
Price horse: Novo Mesto (5/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
15 Cyber Gal E —
J Alvarado
R Mott
 6/1
14
★★★☆☆
58.5
 Top Pick
12 Novo Mesto —
F Arrieta
E Kenneally
 5/1
12
★★★☆☆
57.3
 Value Play
16 Middlemist —
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 9/2
9
★★★☆☆
55.0
  
2 Majorbrowniepoints —
J R Velazquez
M E Casse
 9/2
8
★★★☆☆
54.4
  
7 Dovetail —
C A Torres
R Brisset
 12/1
8
★★★☆☆
53.7
 Longshot
10 Follow Your Heart —
A Concepcion
G R Arnold II
 5/2
7
★★★☆☆
53.3
  
6 Lady Carmen E —
L Machado
M Douaihy
 30/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.9
  
4 Marigold Run E —
J Alvarado
N Vaccarezza
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
50.9
  
8 Bredkorn —
D Machado
M P Sims
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
50.3
  
3 Ataya —
D Sheehy
A McKeever
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
49.7
  
5 Caring —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 4/1
5
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
13 Upstart Empress EP —
B Curtis
C Davis
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.2
  
9 Golden Cause —
L Saez
J Sharp
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
11 Waterman's Song —
J L Ortiz
C DeVaux
 6/1
4
★★★☆☆
47.4
  
14 Doozie Do —
L Saez
K Danner
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
46.2
  
1 Sapphire Song —
J A Torres
R Mott
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
42.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
15
Cyber Gal
E —
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
R Mott
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
Post · Horse Value Play
12
Novo Mesto
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
E Kenneally
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.3
Post · Horse
16
Middlemist
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.0
Post · Horse
2
Majorbrowniepoints
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M E Casse
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.4
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Dovetail
—
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
R Brisset
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.7
Post · Horse
10
Follow Your Heart
—
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
G R Arnold II
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 53.3
Post · Horse
6
Lady Carmen
E —
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
M Douaihy
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.9
Post · Horse
4
Marigold Run
E —
Jockey
J Alvarado
Trainer
N Vaccarezza
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.9
Post · Horse
8
Bredkorn
—
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
M P Sims
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.3
Post · Horse
3
Ataya
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
A McKeever
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.7
Post · Horse
5
Caring
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse
13
Upstart Empress
EP —
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
C Davis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.2
Post · Horse
9
Golden Cause
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
J Sharp
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
Post · Horse
11
Waterman's Song
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
C DeVaux
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.4
Post · Horse
14
Doozie Do
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
K Danner
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.2
Post · Horse
1
Sapphire Song
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 16-horse field.
  Go Pro