Curated Betting Card

Keeneland

Focused strategy and instant race-level routing for Race 5.

2026-10-23 Race 5 Morning Card
You're viewing the Morning Card
This card is frozen as it was curated this morning. Pro members see the live card — late scratches, cancellations, odds moves, and revised betting strategy — right up to post time.
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Card signals
Keeneland · full board
Strongest play
R6
T V Time Out #8
Top conf.
Best longshot
R1
Most Probable #5
15/1 ML
Deepest field
R3
14 runners
14
Pace shape
R1
Duel
2 want the lead
Card Overview
Race day summary
Keeneland's ten-race program features competitive maiden fields, deep claiming routes, and a pair of high-caliber stakes sprints and turf miles highlighted by the $300,000 sprint in Race 8 and the $400,000 turf feature in Race 9. While big juvenile fields early offer tricky puzzles with spread potential, the sequence firms up around mid-card standout T V Time Out in Race 6 and solid stakes contenders Elewene and Sister Troienne later in the afternoon. Look for tactical mid-pack runners on the turf courses and pay close attention to sharp workout lines among the unstarted two-year-olds.
Races 10 Status Live View Morning
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 1

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #5 Most Probable, #9 Telecaster.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$53,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:00 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Year Olds
Weight120 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Three Years Old And Upward. Weight: Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs
Storyline
Bob Baffert brings first-time starter #4 One More Time into an open maiden sprint, where he takes on seasoned maidens like #8 Boss' Deed who has hit the board against better company at Ellis Park. The question is whether the unraced favorite can translate his morning reputation to the afternoon against hardened maiden special weight foes.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
3
P
2
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Telecaster and #5 Most Probable go for the lead together. #2 Camino drops to the back. 954687312
  2. Middle around the turn #9 Telecaster and #5 Most Probable keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 954683721
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Terre Haute has taken over in front. Moving forward: #2 Camino. Tiring: #9 Telecaster and #5 Most Probable. 346827951

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 27.8%
Price horse: Boss' Deed (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
4 One More Time EP Neutral
T Gaffalione
B Baffert
 3/1
28
★★★★☆
63.8
 Top Pick
8 Boss' Deed EP Neutral
A Concepcion
T Newton
 9/2
15
★★★☆☆
58.7
 Value Play
7 Lasting Legacy —
J L Ortiz
L Gaudet
 7/2
13
★★★☆☆
57.5
  
5 Most Probable E Misfit
J McKee
C Williams
 15/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.7
 Longshot
3 Terre Haute P Fits
A Beschizza
J Ennis
 5/1
11
★★★☆☆
55.6
  
9 Telecaster E Misfit
W Antongeorgi III
H Holsapple
 6/1
10
★★★☆☆
54.8
  
2 Camino P Fits
Y Ortiz, Jr.
R Moquett
 20/1
7
★★★☆☆
51.6
  
6 Shapka EP Neutral
E Esquivel
B Williamson
 12/1
4
★★★☆☆
46.3
  
1 Why Not Fly —
C Jimenez
M Douaihy
 8/1
3
★★★☆☆
43.8
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
4
One More Time
EP Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B Baffert
28
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.8
Post · Horse Value Play
8
Boss' Deed
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
T Newton
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.7
Post · Horse
7
Lasting Legacy
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
L Gaudet
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse Longshot
5
Most Probable
E Misfit
Jockey
J McKee
Trainer
C Williams
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.7
Post · Horse
3
Terre Haute
P Fits
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J Ennis
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 55.6
Post · Horse
9
Telecaster
E Misfit
Jockey
W Antongeorgi III
Trainer
H Holsapple
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 54.8
Post · Horse
2
Camino
P Fits
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
R Moquett
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.6
Post · Horse
6
Shapka
EP Neutral
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
B Williamson
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.3
Post · Horse
1
Why Not Fly
—
Jockey
C Jimenez
Trainer
M Douaihy
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.8
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 2

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #7 Two Hearted, #5 Gypsan, #9 Sweet Note.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $20,000 Or Less Since October 1, 2024
Purse$69,000
Claiming$20,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time1:32 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies And Mares
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $20,000 Or Less Since October 1, 2024
Storyline
#3 Our Liberty Belle returns off a substantial layoff for the Joe Sharp barn with Irad Ortiz Jr. up, facing race-fit rivals like #7 Two Hearted who regularly logs figures in the 80s on the regional circuit. The race hinges on whether #3 retains her prior class after ten months away from the races.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
0
P
4
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Sweet Note, #7 Two Hearted and #5 Gypsan all go for the lead. #4 Charlee Mae drops to the back. 975812634
  2. Middle around the turn #9 Sweet Note, #7 Two Hearted and #5 Gypsan keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 975812634
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #8 Sassy Princess is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #1 Final Shipman, #2 Fugitive Star and #6 Progeny. Tiring: #9 Sweet Note, #7 Two Hearted and #5 Gypsan. 812634975

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.0%
Price horse: Two Hearted (20/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
3 Our Liberty Belle P Fits
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 5/2
17
★★★★☆
70.5
 Top Pick
7 Two Hearted E Misfit
A Bendezu
G J Sandrowski
 20/1
14
★★★★☆
69.0
 Value Play
6 Progeny P Fits
R Bejarano
J G Cook
 9/2
14
★★★★☆
68.7
  
4 Charlee Mae S Fits
J L Ortiz
K Martinez
 6/1
13
★★★★☆
68.5
  
8 Sassy Princess —
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 4/1
13
★★★★☆
68.0
  
5 Gypsan E Misfit
B Curtis
A Shorter
 12/1
10
★★★★☆
65.6
  
9 Sweet Note E Misfit
L Machado
D J Habeeb
 5/1
9
★★★★☆
65.4
  
2 Fugitive Star P Fits
L Saez
D Jacobson
 10/1
6
★★★★☆
61.6
 Longshot
1 Final Shipman P Fits
J A Torres
S E Shaffer
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
58.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
3
Our Liberty Belle
P Fits
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 70.5
Post · Horse Value Play
7
Two Hearted
E Misfit
Jockey
A Bendezu
Trainer
G J Sandrowski
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.0
Post · Horse
6
Progeny
P Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
J G Cook
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse
4
Charlee Mae
S Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
K Martinez
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
8
Sassy Princess
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.0
Post · Horse
5
Gypsan
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
A Shorter
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.6
Post · Horse
9
Sweet Note
E Misfit
Jockey
L Machado
Trainer
D J Habeeb
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.4
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Fugitive Star
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
D Jacobson
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.6
Post · Horse
1
Final Shipman
P Fits
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
S E Shaffer
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 3
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies Two Years Old
Purse$55,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:04 PM ET
Field Size14
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies
Weight119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 119 lbs
Storyline
A sprawling field of fourteen two-year-old fillies stretches out to one mile, where Mark Casse trainee #7 Clever One looks to rebound from a flat sprint effort behind a 77 speed figure debut. The test is whether #7 can overcome a wide draw and control the route pace against Brad Cox's progressing #4 Soccer Socks.
PASS Skip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 22.5%
Price horse: Soccer Socks (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Clever One —
J L Ortiz
M E Casse
 9/2
22
★★★☆☆
59.0
 Top Pick
4 Soccer Socks —
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 7/2
19
★★★☆☆
57.5
 Value Play
11 Maddy Mania —
S Pauly
E Moger, Jr.
 15/1
8
★★★☆☆
50.7
  
14 Kabin Eight S —
E Esquivel
W D Cowans
 8/1
8
★★★☆☆
49.8
 Longshot
10 Cover Story
F Arrieta
K G McPeek
 8/1
7
★★★☆☆
49.5
  
5 Newhope —
A Cedillo
L Schultz
 15/1
7
★★★☆☆
48.9
  
1 Devious Lady P —
J A Torres
W B Calhoun
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.9
  
12 Classic Song —
W A Rodriguez
W A Ward
 5/1
5
★★★☆☆
46.6
  
6 Dice Shot —
L Saez
C Davis
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.6
  
8 Griolet —
Y Ortiz, Jr.
E Lopez
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
42.0
  
13 Get My Good Side —
J R Velazquez
A J Green
 5/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.4
  
3 Tough Act —
M Gutierrez
V H Oliver
 20/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.9
  
9 Upside Out S —
A Concepcion
M E Casse
 6/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.6
  
2 Glamour N Glitz S —
J Graham
J K Desormeaux
 15/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.3
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Clever One
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M E Casse
22
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.0
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Soccer Socks
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
19
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 57.5
Post · Horse
11
Maddy Mania
—
Jockey
S Pauly
Trainer
E Moger, Jr.
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.7
Post · Horse Longshot
14
Kabin Eight
S —
Jockey
E Esquivel
Trainer
W D Cowans
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse
10
Cover Story
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
K G McPeek
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.5
Post · Horse
5
Newhope
—
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
L Schultz
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.9
Post · Horse
1
Devious Lady
P —
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W B Calhoun
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.9
Post · Horse
12
Classic Song
—
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
W A Ward
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.6
Post · Horse
6
Dice Shot
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.6
Post · Horse
8
Griolet
—
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
E Lopez
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 42.0
Post · Horse
13
Get My Good Side
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
A J Green
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.4
Post · Horse
3
Tough Act
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
V H Oliver
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.9
Post · Horse
9
Upside Out
S —
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
M E Casse
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.6
Post · Horse
2
Glamour N Glitz
S —
Jockey
J Graham
Trainer
J K Desormeaux
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.3
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 4

Two horses want the lead and may wear each other out. Horses that sit back and close benefit. Wants the lead: #4 Tarantino, #8 Break Out.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeAllowance Optional Claiming
Purse$88,000
Trip & Field
Distance7 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time2:36 PM ET
Field Size8
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Year Olds
Weight120 lbs.
AllowanceNon-winners of two races other than maiden or claiming allowed 2 lbs
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Three Year Olds and Upward. Weight: Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners of two races other than maiden or claiming allowed 2 lbs
Storyline
California shipper #5 Ghazaaly makes his local debut off triple-digit speed figures at Santa Anita, but he must hold off in-form barn mate #4 Tarantino, who just won over this Keeneland strip on October 4. The race hinges on whether #5 can fire fresh off a four-month layoff at seven furlongs.
Pace shape Duel
E
2
EP
1
P
2
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Duel
  1. Early leaving the gate #8 Break Out and #4 Tarantino go for the lead together. #7 Skyro drops to the back. 84156327
  2. Middle around the turn #8 Break Out and #4 Tarantino keep pressing each other. That fast pace starts to cost them. 84156327
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Scat Free has taken over in front. Moving forward: #3 Can't Hush This, #2 Big to Do and #7 Skyro. Tiring: #8 Break Out and #4 Tarantino. 13256784

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 23.3%
Price horse: Tarantino (4/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Ghazaaly —
I Ortiz, Jr.
D Jacobson
 8/5
23
★★★★☆
72.8
 Top Pick
4 Tarantino E Misfit
T Gaffalione
D Jacobson
 4/1
16
★★★★☆
69.6
 Value Play
8 Break Out E Misfit
L Saez
M B Campbell
 3/1
15
★★★★☆
69.2
  
7 Skyro S Fits
R Bejarano
C A Hartman
 6/1
14
★★★★☆
68.1
  
3 Can't Hush This P Fits
A Achard
E W West
 8/1
13
★★★★☆
67.9
  
1 Scat Free EP Neutral
A Cedillo
M S Warpool
 15/1
7
★★★★☆
62.7
 Longshot
6 Accretive —
M Fernandez
T V Duncan
 20/1
6
★★★★☆
61.4
  
2 Big to Do P Fits
C A Torres
T S Wismer
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
60.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Ghazaaly
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
D Jacobson
23
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.8
Post · Horse Value Play
4
Tarantino
E Misfit
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
D Jacobson
16
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.6
Post · Horse
8
Break Out
E Misfit
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
M B Campbell
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.2
Post · Horse
7
Skyro
S Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
C A Hartman
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.1
Post · Horse
3
Can't Hush This
P Fits
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
E W West
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Scat Free
EP Neutral
Jockey
A Cedillo
Trainer
M S Warpool
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
6
Accretive
—
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
T V Duncan
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.4
Post · Horse
2
Big to Do
P Fits
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
T S Wismer
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 8-horse field.
  Go Pro

RACE PREVIEW

RACE 5

Little early pressure. Horses near the lead have the edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeClaiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less Or Which Have Broken Their Maiden In A Maiden
Purse$63,000
Claiming$50,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:08 PM ET
Field Size9
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Year Olds
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Two Races Or Claiming Price $50,000
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races Or Claiming Price $50,000
Storyline
Doug O'Neill sends #5 Vitruvian Man back to the dirt off strong graded-stakes-caliber turf speed figures, where he meets last-out Churchill winner #7 Sound Cause and fresh challenger #3 Gallo de Fuego. The tension centers on whether #5 can translate his Del Mar summer dirt form of 97 back to a route on Keeneland's main track.
Pace shape Favors Front
E
1
EP
1
P
3
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Favors Front
  1. Early leaving the gate #1 Jets Rio should break on top. #4 Consolidated and #3 Gallo de Fuego drop to the back. 165789234
  2. Middle around the turn #1 Jets Rio sets a comfortable pace and the field stays in line behind. 156789234
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #1 Jets Rio is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 156789234

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Wide OpenOrdered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Small play (small stake) — Wide-open field; keep the stake small and lean on ordered exotics
Top win chance: 17.6%
Price horse: Gallo de Fuego (9/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Vitruvian Man —
J L Ortiz
D F O'Neill
 7/2
18
★★★★☆
68.8
 Top Pick
3 Gallo de Fuego S Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 9/2
17
★★★★☆
68.5
 Value Play
6 Ghostwritten EP Fits
L Saez
C Davis
 6/1
11
★★★★☆
65.0
  
7 Sound Cause P Neutral
K J Asmussen
S M Asmussen
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
64.1
 Longshot
9 South Bend Tom P Neutral
A Concepcion
A M Stall, Jr.
 5/1
10
★★★★☆
64.1
  
8 Easy Wind P Neutral
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 4/1
10
★★★★☆
63.9
  
4 Consolidated S Neutral
V R Carrasco
A Delacour
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
62.6
  
2 Fear of Union S Neutral
F Arrieta
S J Cunningham
 15/1
8
★★★★☆
61.9
  
1 Jets Rio E Fits
R Bejarano
R Moquett
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
61.5
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Vitruvian Man
—
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
D F O'Neill
18
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.8
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Gallo de Fuego
S Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
17
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.5
Post · Horse
6
Ghostwritten
EP Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
C Davis
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.0
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Sound Cause
P Neutral
Jockey
K J Asmussen
Trainer
S M Asmussen
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
9
South Bend Tom
P Neutral
Jockey
A Concepcion
Trainer
A M Stall, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.1
Post · Horse
8
Easy Wind
P Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.9
Post · Horse
4
Consolidated
S Neutral
Jockey
V R Carrasco
Trainer
A Delacour
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.6
Post · Horse
2
Fear of Union
S Neutral
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
S J Cunningham
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
1
Jets Rio
E Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Moquett
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.5
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 9-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 6
Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Two Years Old
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance5 1/2 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time3:40 PM ET
Field Size14
Eligibility & Weights
WeightWeight: 119 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight: 119 lbs
Storyline
Steve Asmussen's experienced juvenile #8 T V Time Out enters off a sharp 85 speed figure fourth over this track on October 2, facing high-priced firsters like Bob Baffert's #3 Justico and Wesley Ward's #1 Tarkanian. The race hinges on whether #8's battle-tested edge holds up against regally bred first-time starters.
PLAY Exacta KeySmall Trifecta
Strong play — Clear top selection by calibrated probability or rating gap
Top win chance: 31.8%
Price horse: Justico (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
8 T V Time Out —
L Saez
S M Asmussen
 9/2
32
★★★★☆
61.2
 Top Pick
3 Justico —
T Gaffalione
B Baffert
 7/2
10
★★★☆☆
51.7
 Value Play
7 Epic Journey
J L Ortiz
J Sharp
 6/1
9
★★★☆☆
50.8
  
1 Tarkanian —
J R Velazquez
W A Ward
 6/1
7
★★★☆☆
48.6
  
4 Corpsman Jones —
J Loveberry
M Lightner
 20/1
6
★★★☆☆
47.8
  
11 Union Star —
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 8/1
5
★★★☆☆
46.1
 Longshot
9 It's a Good Time —
B J Hernandez, Jr.
D Stewart
 4/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.8
  
6 Oscar's Candy —
M Fernandez
D K Von Hemel
 12/1
5
★★★☆☆
45.0
  
12 Tawalla
R Bejarano
R Medina
 30/1
5
★★★☆☆
44.8
  
13 Make Us Dream —
O Bocachica
I Ayala
 30/1
4
★★★☆☆
43.1
  
5 Fast Shot —
D Sheehy
J Ennis
 15/1
3
★★★☆☆
41.2
  
10 Bold Aleks —
D Cannon
J M Medina
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.8
  
2 Eye Run Maiden —
A Beschizza
J M Medina
 30/1
3
★★★☆☆
40.8
  
14 El Malecon —
D Machado
K A Fernandez
 50/1
2
★★☆☆☆
39.2
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
8
T V Time Out
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
S M Asmussen
32
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.2
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Justico
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B Baffert
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.7
Post · Horse
7
Epic Journey
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Sharp
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.8
Post · Horse
1
Tarkanian
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
W A Ward
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 48.6
Post · Horse
4
Corpsman Jones
—
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
M Lightner
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.8
Post · Horse Longshot
11
Union Star
—
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 46.1
Post · Horse
9
It's a Good Time
—
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
D Stewart
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.8
Post · Horse
6
Oscar's Candy
—
Jockey
M Fernandez
Trainer
D K Von Hemel
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 45.0
Post · Horse
12
Tawalla
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
R Medina
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 44.8
Post · Horse
13
Make Us Dream
—
Jockey
O Bocachica
Trainer
I Ayala
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 43.1
Post · Horse
5
Fast Shot
—
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Ennis
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 41.2
Post · Horse
10
Bold Aleks
—
Jockey
D Cannon
Trainer
J M Medina
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.8
Post · Horse
2
Eye Run Maiden
—
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
J M Medina
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 40.8
Post · Horse
14
El Malecon
—
Jockey
D Machado
Trainer
K A Fernandez
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★☆☆☆ 39.2
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 14-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 7

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #3 Pure Octane, #2 Winter Holiday, #9 Laughnowcrylater.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races
Purse$120,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceTurf
Post Time4:12 PM ET
Field Size13
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Year Olds
EligibilityWhich Have Never Won Two Races
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Three Year Olds and Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $50,000 Or Less Or Which Have
Storyline
#13 Fuzzbuster ran a blistering 101 speed figure when third at Kentucky Downs in September, but now must navigate the extreme outside post around two turns against reliable turf operators like #3 Pure Octane and #1 Lucky Mischief. The question is whether #13 gets hung wide into the first turn.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
3
P
0
S
4

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Pure Octane and #9 Laughnowcrylater go for the lead together. #12 Joy Division and #1 Lucky Mischief drop to the back. 39213587101146112
  2. Middle around the turn #3 Pure Octane, #9 Laughnowcrylater and #2 Winter Holiday keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 39132510781146112
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #13 Fuzzbuster is in front, running an even pace. Moving forward: #4 Shure, #1 Lucky Mischief and #6 Natural Rights. Tiring: #5 Spun Legacy, #8 Gun Barrel City and #3 Pure Octane. 13416121075811392

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PASS Wide OpenSkip Wide FieldSmall Trifecta
No play — Wide field with no standout — skip the auto book
Top win chance: 12.5%
Price horse: Pure Octane (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
13 Fuzzbuster —
L Saez
V H Oliver
 3/1
12
★★★★☆
68.7
 Top Pick
3 Pure Octane E Misfit
J L Ortiz
M Robertson
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
68.2
 Value Play
1 Lucky Mischief S Fits
J R Velazquez
M J Maker
 8/1
11
★★★★☆
67.9
 Longshot
2 Winter Holiday E Misfit
A Achard
E G Harty
 12/1
9
★★★★☆
66.3
  
9 Laughnowcrylater E Misfit
B Curtis
M W McCarthy
 10/1
9
★★★★☆
66.1
  
6 Natural Rights S Fits
F Arrieta
S J Cunningham
 6/1
8
★★★★☆
64.8
  
10 Quick Pick —
J A Torres
W Walden
 4/1
8
★★★★☆
64.5
  
4 Shure S Fits
D Sheehy
J Corrigan
 10/1
7
★★★★☆
63.2
  
8 Gun Barrel City EP Neutral
T Gaffalione
M J Maker
 12/1
6
★★★★☆
62.2
  
7 Brave Pilot —
I Ortiz, Jr.
M W McCarthy
 5/1
6
★★★★☆
61.8
  
12 Joy Division S Fits
J Loveberry
J Campbell
 30/1
6
★★★★☆
61.7
  
5 Spun Legacy EP Neutral
Y Ortiz, Jr.
J Sharp
 8/1
5
★★★★☆
61.1
  
11 Grand Hall EP Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
M Nihei
 30/1
2
★★★☆☆
50.6
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
13
Fuzzbuster
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
V H Oliver
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.7
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Pure Octane
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
M Robertson
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 68.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Lucky Mischief
S Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M J Maker
11
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.9
Post · Horse
2
Winter Holiday
E Misfit
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
E G Harty
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.3
Post · Horse
9
Laughnowcrylater
E Misfit
Jockey
B Curtis
Trainer
M W McCarthy
9
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.1
Post · Horse
6
Natural Rights
S Fits
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
S J Cunningham
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.8
Post · Horse
10
Quick Pick
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
W Walden
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 64.5
Post · Horse
4
Shure
S Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
J Corrigan
7
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.2
Post · Horse
8
Gun Barrel City
EP Neutral
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
M J Maker
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.2
Post · Horse
7
Brave Pilot
—
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
M W McCarthy
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.8
Post · Horse
12
Joy Division
S Fits
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
J Campbell
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.7
Post · Horse
5
Spun Legacy
EP Neutral
Jockey
Y Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
J Sharp
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.1
Post · Horse
11
Grand Hall
EP Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
M Nihei
2
Win Prob
ML Odds
30/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.6
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 13-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 8

Three or more horses want the lead. Expect the front-runners to tire and closers to pick them up. Wants the lead: #7 Elewene, #1 Glory Run, #4 Cruisin in Harmony.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $300,000
Purse$300,000
Trip & Field
Distance6 Furlongs
SurfaceDirt
Post Time4:44 PM ET
Field Size7
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies
WeightWeight: 122 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Fillies Two Years Old. By subscription of $150 each, with $300,000 guaranteed. Weight: 122 lbs
Storyline
Dale Romans' undefeated filly #7 Elewene steps into stakes company after back-to-back dominant wins, taking on Brad Cox's #5 Angel of Kirk and Brendan Walsh's stakes-placed #2 Miss Anna. The race turns on whether #7 can maintain her front-running dominance against a loaded field of sprint juveniles.
Pace shape Fast Pace
E
3
EP
1
P
1
S
1

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Fast Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #7 Elewene, #1 Glory Run and #4 Cruisin in Harmony all go for the lead. #2 Miss Anna drops to the back. 7145362
  2. Middle around the turn #7 Elewene, #1 Glory Run and #4 Cruisin in Harmony keep battling up front. That pace is too fast to last. 7145623
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #2 Miss Anna has taken over in front. Moving forward: #6 Stress Relief. Tiring: #7 Elewene, #1 Glory Run and #4 Cruisin in Harmony. 2653714

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.1%
Price horse: Miss Anna (7/2 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
7 Elewene E Misfit
J L Ortiz
D L Romans
 3/1
26
★★★★☆
71.6
 Top Pick
2 Miss Anna S Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 7/2
21
★★★★☆
69.7
 Value Play
6 Stress Relief P Fits
L Saez
K LaRose
 4/1
15
★★★★☆
67.1
  
5 Angel of Kirk EP Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
B H Cox
 9/5
14
★★★★☆
66.2
  
1 Glory Run E Misfit
A Achard
J Ennis
 20/1
10
★★★★☆
63.0
 Longshot
4 Cruisin in Harmony E Misfit
J Loveberry
H E Lynch
 20/1
8
★★★★☆
61.9
  
3 Rescue Dawn —
J R Velazquez
M J Maker
 6/1
6
★★★☆☆
58.9
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
7
Elewene
E Misfit
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
D L Romans
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
3/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.6
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Miss Anna
S Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 69.7
Post · Horse
6
Stress Relief
P Fits
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
K LaRose
15
Win Prob
ML Odds
4/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 67.1
Post · Horse
5
Angel of Kirk
EP Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B H Cox
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 66.2
Post · Horse Longshot
1
Glory Run
E Misfit
Jockey
A Achard
Trainer
J Ennis
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
4
Cruisin in Harmony
E Misfit
Jockey
J Loveberry
Trainer
H E Lynch
8
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 61.9
Post · Horse
3
Rescue Dawn
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M J Maker
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 58.9
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 7-horse field.
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 9

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeSTAKES Purse $400,000
Purse$400,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 Mile
SurfaceTurf
Post Time5:16 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexFillies And Mares
WeightWeight: 124 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward. By subscription of $200 each, with $400,000 guaranteed. Weight: 124 lbs
Storyline
Stakes winner #5 Sister Troienne makes her second start of the fall after running second with a 96 speed figure at Belmont, but she faces deep turf routers like #3 Define, who won at Churchill with a 100 figure, and up-and-comer #2 Spin a Tune. The tension revolves around whether #5 can dictate terms over a Keeneland mile.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
3
P
2
S
3

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #3 Define should break on top. #6 Rhapsody in Motion drops to the back. 31710842596
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 31710842596
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #3 Define is still in front. Moving forward: #8 Faye's Gold, #2 Spin a Tune and #5 Sister Troienne. Tiring: #7 Essential Lady. 31827410569

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 26.0%
Price horse: Spin a Tune (10/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
5 Sister Troienne S Neutral
I Ortiz, Jr.
B A Lynch
 6/5
26
★★★★☆
79.5
 Top Pick
2 Spin a Tune S Neutral
J A Torres
E G Harty
 10/1
13
★★★★☆
73.6
 Value Play
3 Define EP Fits
T Gaffalione
B P Walsh
 9/2
13
★★★★☆
73.6
  
7 Essential Lady EP Fits
J L Ortiz
J Thomas
 8/1
12
★★★★☆
73.1
 Longshot
1 Ultimate Love EP Fits
J R Velazquez
M J Trombetta
 6/1
12
★★★★☆
72.7
  
10 Dakotah Blue —
F Arrieta
S A Joseph, Jr.
 10/1
10
★★★★☆
71.5
  
4 Call On Me P Neutral
C A Torres
G R Arnold II
 15/1
4
★★★★☆
63.6
  
9 That's How We Love —
R Gutierrez
P Antonacci
 12/1
4
★★★★☆
63.0
  
8 Faye's Gold P Neutral
A Beschizza
G T Forster
 20/1
4
★★★★☆
62.7
  
6 Rhapsody in Motion S Neutral
D Sheehy
A M Meah
 50/1
3
★★★★☆
60.4
  
Post · Horse Top Pick
5
Sister Troienne
S Neutral
Jockey
I Ortiz, Jr.
Trainer
B A Lynch
26
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/5
Rating
★★★★☆ 79.5
Post · Horse Value Play
2
Spin a Tune
S Neutral
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
E G Harty
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.6
Post · Horse
3
Define
EP Fits
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
B P Walsh
13
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.6
Post · Horse Longshot
7
Essential Lady
EP Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
J Thomas
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 73.1
Post · Horse
1
Ultimate Love
EP Fits
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
M J Trombetta
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 72.7
Post · Horse
10
Dakotah Blue
—
Jockey
F Arrieta
Trainer
S A Joseph, Jr.
10
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 71.5
Post · Horse
4
Call On Me
P Neutral
Jockey
C A Torres
Trainer
G R Arnold II
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.6
Post · Horse
9
That's How We Love
—
Jockey
R Gutierrez
Trainer
P Antonacci
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
12/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.0
Post · Horse
8
Faye's Gold
P Neutral
Jockey
A Beschizza
Trainer
G T Forster
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 62.7
Post · Horse
6
Rhapsody in Motion
S Neutral
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
A M Meah
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
50/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.4
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
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RACE PREVIEW

RACE 10

A fair, even pace. No running style has a built-in edge.

Race Details
Class & Money
TypeMaidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward
Purse$110,000
Trip & Field
Distance1 1/16 Miles
SurfaceDirt
Post Time5:48 PM ET
Field Size10
Eligibility & Weights
Age/SexThree Year Olds Fillies And Mares
Weight120 lbs.
Track conditions to be confirmed at race time.
Conditions For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Weight: Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs
Storyline
The finale matches Steve Asmussen's consistent maiden #9 Fast Gun against Wesley Ward's turf-to-dirt router #3 Cynical Humor, with both fillies knocking on the door. The central question is whether #9 can handle two turns on dirt after four consecutive placed efforts without breaking through.
Pace shape Honest Pace
E
0
EP
3
P
2
S
0

E early speed · EP presser · P mid-pack · S closer

Running styles come from each horse's recent race comments and analyst notes. For reading the race only — win % and plays are unchanged.

Pace projection How the field should line up Honest Pace
  1. Early leaving the gate #9 Fast Gun, #7 Flash of Freedom and #6 Al Ghadeer all go for the lead. 97683512410
  2. Middle around the turn A fair pace. The order mostly holds and the field tightens up. 97683512410
  3. Late top of the stretch Turning for home, #9 Fast Gun is still in front. Not much changes from the early order. 97683512410

Projected from each horse's running style and today's pace shape. Horses without a style run an even pace from their speed against that field. It sketches running position, not a finish — win % and plays are unchanged.

PLAY Ordered ExoticsSmall Trifecta
Standard play (small stake) — Usable edge; prefer exacta coverage over narrow straight bets
Top win chance: 25.1%
Price horse: Cynical Humor (6/1 ML)
Entries & Odds
Post · Horse Jockey / Trainer ML Odds Win Prob Rating Role
9 Fast Gun EP Fits
J L Ortiz
S M Asmussen
 7/2
25
★★★★☆
65.2
 Top Pick
3 Cynical Humor P Neutral
W A Rodriguez
W A Ward
 6/1
21
★★★★☆
63.5
 Value Play
6 Al Ghadeer EP Fits
D Sheehy
A McKeever
 5/2
14
★★★★☆
60.1
  
5 Sesasi —
L Saez
T A Pletcher
 9/2
12
★★★☆☆
59.1
  
10 Slow Kara —
M Gutierrez
V H Oliver
 15/1
6
★★★☆☆
52.9
  
7 Flash of Freedom EP Fits
R Bejarano
M P Sims
 20/1
5
★★★☆☆
52.0
  
1 Permutation —
T Gaffalione
C C Brown
 10/1
5
★★★☆☆
51.5
  
4 Draw —
J A Torres
R Mott
 20/1
4
★★★☆☆
50.4
  
8 Thesewallshaveears P Neutral
B J Hernandez, Jr.
P J McGee
 15/1
4
★★★☆☆
49.8
  
2 Bisclavret —
J R Velazquez
G Weaver
 8/1
3
★★★☆☆
47.7
 Longshot
Post · Horse Top Pick
9
Fast Gun
EP Fits
Jockey
J L Ortiz
Trainer
S M Asmussen
25
Win Prob
ML Odds
7/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 65.2
Post · Horse Value Play
3
Cynical Humor
P Neutral
Jockey
W A Rodriguez
Trainer
W A Ward
21
Win Prob
ML Odds
6/1
Rating
★★★★☆ 63.5
Post · Horse
6
Al Ghadeer
EP Fits
Jockey
D Sheehy
Trainer
A McKeever
14
Win Prob
ML Odds
5/2
Rating
★★★★☆ 60.1
Post · Horse
5
Sesasi
—
Jockey
L Saez
Trainer
T A Pletcher
12
Win Prob
ML Odds
9/2
Rating
★★★☆☆ 59.1
Post · Horse
10
Slow Kara
—
Jockey
M Gutierrez
Trainer
V H Oliver
6
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.9
Post · Horse
7
Flash of Freedom
EP Fits
Jockey
R Bejarano
Trainer
M P Sims
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 52.0
Post · Horse
1
Permutation
—
Jockey
T Gaffalione
Trainer
C C Brown
5
Win Prob
ML Odds
10/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 51.5
Post · Horse
4
Draw
—
Jockey
J A Torres
Trainer
R Mott
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
20/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 50.4
Post · Horse
8
Thesewallshaveears
P Neutral
Jockey
B J Hernandez, Jr.
Trainer
P J McGee
4
Win Prob
ML Odds
15/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 49.8
Post · Horse Longshot
2
Bisclavret
—
Jockey
J R Velazquez
Trainer
G Weaver
3
Win Prob
ML Odds
8/1
Rating
★★★☆☆ 47.7
The Breakdown Lab Pro Component scores that feed the composite rating What the words mean
The Breakdown Lab is a Pro feature. Unlock per-horse factor bars (speed, form, class, workout, jockey, trainer), connection records, and recent figures that feed our composite rating for this 10-horse field.
  Go Pro